ADP AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)

$213.81+2.14 (+1.01%) today

Open
$213.78
High
$215.81
Low
$211.13
Volume
4.02M
Mkt Cap
$85.47B
52W High
$329.93
AI Verdict
Confidence 90%
ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

ADP is fundamentally robust with strong recurring revenue, margin expansion, and consistent earnings beats, but currently faces a technical downtrend and fair-to-rich valuation. While long-term prospects remain attractive, near-term upside is limited by bearish technicals and mixed sentiment. Investors should hold or await a technical reversal or valuation reset before adding exposure.

By Timeframe
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Agent Signals
41
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

ADP demonstrates robust and consistent fundamental performance, marked by strong top-line growth, expanding margins, and a streak of earnings beats. The company's long-term market leadership and high recurring revenue make its fundamental profile resilient, though the current valuation is rich after a significant multi-year run.

Financial Highlights

Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026$0$1.5B$3.0B$4.5B$6.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)16%18%20%22%24%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$5.94B

6.95% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Income

$1.36B

8.83% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Margin

22.90%

Q1 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

6.95%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

8.83%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

8.50%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

EPS Growth YoY

10.42%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

10.02%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Revenue5.9B5.4B5.2B5.1B5.6B5.0B4.8B4.8B
Revenue Growth YoY+6.95%+6.16%+7.09%+7.51%+5.69%+8.15%+7.10%+6.49%
Net Income1.4B1.1B1.0B910.6M1.2B963.2M956.3M829.3M
Net Income Growth YoY+8.83%+10.27%+5.93%+9.80%+5.45%+9.65%+11.28%+6.77%
EPS$3.39$2.63$2.50$2.24$3.07$2.36$2.34$2.03
EPS Growth YoY+10.42%+11.44%+6.84%+10.34%+6.23%+10.45%+12.10%+7.78%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

48.28%

TTM

Operating Margin

30.06%

TTM

Net Margin

22.90%

TTM

Return on Equity

68.69%

TTM

Return on Assets

7.30%

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Gross Margin48.28%46.08%45.20%50.31%51.71%49.94%49.83%49.50%
Operating Margin30.06%23.84%-2.37%23.54%29.41%25.75%26.32%23.02%
Net Margin22.90%19.82%19.57%17.76%22.50%19.08%19.79%17.39%
Return on Equity (ROE)21.41%16.61%15.89%14.72%21.34%18.97%17.88%18.24%
Return on Assets (ROA)2.28%1.33%2.05%1.88%2.42%1.63%2.09%1.64%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

ADP is currently in a downtrend with mixed signals from momentum indicators and moving averages indicating a bearish setup. The price is below key longer-term moving averages, and the technical stage analysis suggests the stock remains in a declining phase with no confirmed reversal yet.

RSI
Hold
Neutral58

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

-15.7% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend25

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Hold
Death Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$213.81
50 SMA
$206.75
150 SMA
$238.46
200 SMA
$253.55
52W High
$329.93
52W Low
$188.16

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
58Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

ADP demonstrates robust and consistent fundamental performance, marked by strong top-line growth, expanding margins, and a streak of earnings beats. The company's long-term market leadership and high recurring revenue make its fundamental profile resilient, though the current valuation is rich after a significant multi-year run.

Latest Earnings

Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$3.37

Estimated

$3.30

Surprise

+$0.07

Surprise %

+2.12%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$5.94B

Estimated

$5.85B

Surprise

+$87.04M

Surprise %

+1.49%

Historical Earnings

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$3.37$2.62$2.49$2.26$3.06$2.35$2.33$2.09
EPS (Estimated)$3.30$2.57$2.44$2.23$2.97$2.30$2.21$2.06
EPS Surprise+$0.07+$0.05+$0.05+$0.03+$0.09+$0.05+$0.12+$0.03
% Diff+2.1%+1.9%+2.0%+1.3%+3.0%+2.2%+5.4%+1.5%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$5.94B$5.36B$5.18B$5.13B$5.55B$5.05B$4.83B$4.77B
Revenue (Estimated)$5.85B$5.34B$5.14B$5.04B$5.49B$4.97B$4.77B$4.74B
Revenue Surprise+$87.04M+$22.31M+$40.04M+$82.75M+$61.76M+$77.97M+$58.52M+$26.42M
% Diff+1.5%+0.4%+0.8%+1.6%+1.1%+1.6%+1.2%+0.6%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

ADP currently trades at valuation multiples that are somewhat compressed relative to its historical averages but remain slightly above sector peers. Despite its lower P/E compared to historical norms, the company's solid margins, stable revenue growth, and strong return on equity support its fair valuation. Analyst consensus leans towards a hold rating with moderate upside potential based on price targets suggesting 15-25% appreciation.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

19.74

TTM

Price to Sales

3.96

TTM

Price to Book

13.51

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

13.24

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

3.99

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Price to Earnings14.9824.4529.3534.3824.8730.9729.5129.05
Price to Sales13.7219.3822.9824.4222.3923.6323.3620.21
Price to Book12.8316.2518.6620.2321.2323.5021.1021.19
Enterprise Value to EBITDA43.3765.0780.4392.1668.3478.7979.0373.14
Enterprise Value to Revenue13.8519.7924.3425.5422.6724.0424.7220.37

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

ADP sentiment is cautiously balanced with analysts predominantly holding a neutral "Hold" rating, reflecting measured optimism following strong Q3 results and raised 2026 guidance. News highlights solid financial performance and strategic share repurchases, while mixed technical signals and moderate price target revisions temper enthusiasm. Retail and professional sentiment show a nuanced view, with recognition of ADP's financial strength offset by concerns about valuation and broader market pressures.

Analyst Recommendations

As of May 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.1 / 5.0
Based on 19 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
2
Hold
11
Buy
4
Strong Buy
1

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

ADP presents a moderate risk profile with stable financial health characterized by manageable leverage and consistent liquidity, though liquidity ratios hover near 1 indicating tight short-term coverage. The company faces sector-typical risks including competitive pressures in the HR services industry enhanced by strong AI-driven innovation mandates and regulatory complexity. Investor risks mainly revolve around macroeconomic sensitivity to labor market fluctuations, execution risks in technology upgrades, and increasing cybersecurity demands.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.04

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Quick Ratio

1.04

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Debt-to-Equity

0.63

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Debt-to-Assets

0.06

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.041.031.051.051.021.001.011.01
Quick Ratio1.041.031.051.051.021.001.011.01
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.630.721.491.460.730.841.620.81
Debt-to-Assets0.060.050.180.170.080.070.180.07

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.04(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.04(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.63(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.06(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about ADP

AI Answers: Common Questions About ADP

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

ADP is not a compelling buy right now given its P/E of 19.87 (above sector average but below its own historical highs), technical downtrend, and fair valuation. While fundamentals are strong, the stock is consolidating below major resistance and lacks a near-term catalyst for upside.

There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own ADP, as fundamentals remain solid and risk is moderate. However, with technical weakness and limited upside, trimming overweight positions or waiting for a technical reversal before adding is prudent.

Key risks include macroeconomic downturns reducing payroll volumes, margin pressure in PEO services, and execution risk in technology upgrades. Liquidity ratios are just above 1 (current ratio ~1.04), and debt-to-equity is moderate at 0.63, so while financial health is solid, sudden shocks could stress short-term liquidity.

Analyst price targets suggest 15-25% upside from current levels, with resistance at $239.50 (150 SMA) and $254.49 (200 SMA). Downside risk is toward support at $188.16 (52-week low). A breakout above $255 would signal a more bullish technical setup.

ADP is fairly valued: P/E is 19.87, EV/EBITDA is below its decade median, and price-to-book is high, reflecting confidence in intangibles. The stock trades at a premium to sector peers due to its quality, but not at a bargain.

Fundamentally, ADP is very strong: FY25 revenue grew 7.1% YoY to $20.56B, net income rose 8.7%, EPS is up 9.7%, and margins are expanding (gross >50%, operating 26.3%). ROE exceeds 35%, and recurring revenue provides stability.

Technically, ADP is in a downtrend (Stage 4), with price below key moving averages and a death cross in place. RSI is neutral at 57.7, and no bullish reversal pattern is evident. Wait for a break above $255 for a more positive technical signal.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (which have consistently beaten estimates), further AI-driven product launches, and macro employment data. A significant pullback or technical reversal could also provide a better entry point.

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