ADP AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)

$188.79-7.23 (-3.69%) today

Open
$195.72
High
$196.05
Low
$188.16
Volume
2.98M
Mkt Cap
$76.36B
52W High
$329.93
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
MIXED
Overall
Summary

ADP's fundamentals and valuation are robust, with strong recurring revenue, high margins, and a fair valuation near 52-week lows, making it attractive for long-term investors. However, technicals are deeply bearish and sentiment is cautious, suggesting ongoing short-term downside risk. The stock is best suited for patient investors willing to weather near-term volatility for potential long-term gains.

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Agent Signals
131
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Tech
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Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

ADP exhibits robust financial health with consistent revenue and earnings growth, backed by stable profitability and strong cash generation. While recent market volatility has driven shares to a 52-week low, the company's core business fundamentals remain resilient, supporting a constructive long-term view for patient investors.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$1.5B$3.0B$4.5B$6.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)16%18%20%22%24%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$5.36B

6.16% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$1.06B

10.27% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

19.82%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

6.16%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

10.27%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

7.16%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

11.44%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

27.08%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue5.4B5.2B5.1B5.6B5.0B4.8B4.8B5.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+6.16%+7.09%+7.51%+5.69%+8.15%+7.10%+6.49%+6.62%
Net Income1.1B1.0B910.6M1.2B963.2M956.3M829.3M1.2B
Net Income Growth YoY+10.27%+5.93%+9.80%+5.45%+9.65%+11.28%+6.77%+13.59%
EPS$2.63$2.50$2.24$3.07$2.36$2.34$2.03$2.89
EPS Growth YoY+11.44%+6.84%+10.34%+6.23%+10.45%+12.10%+7.78%+14.62%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

46.08%

TTM

Operating Margin

23.84%

TTM

Net Margin

19.82%

TTM

Return on Equity

68.28%

TTM

Return on Assets

5.31%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin46.08%45.20%50.31%51.71%49.94%49.83%49.50%51.44%
Operating Margin23.84%-2.37%23.54%29.41%25.75%26.32%23.02%29.40%
Net Margin19.82%19.57%17.76%22.50%19.08%19.79%17.39%22.55%
Return on Equity (ROE)16.61%15.89%14.72%21.34%18.97%17.88%18.24%25.61%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.33%2.05%1.88%2.42%1.63%2.09%1.64%1.96%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

ADP is currently in a strong downtrend, trading near its 52-week low and below all major moving averages, signaling sustained bearish momentum. Technical indicators highlight oversold RSI levels, but the overall momentum and trend structure remain negative, with no signs of a reversal yet.

RSI
Buy
Oversold27

Potential bounce ahead

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-28.6% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend31

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$188.79
50 SMA
$214.59
150 SMA
$251.27
200 SMA
$264.49
52W High
$329.93
52W Low
$188.16

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
27Oversold

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

ADP exhibits robust financial health with consistent revenue and earnings growth, backed by stable profitability and strong cash generation. While recent market volatility has driven shares to a 52-week low, the company's core business fundamentals remain resilient, supporting a constructive long-term view for patient investors.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$2.62

Estimated

$2.57

Surprise

+$0.05

Surprise %

+1.95%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$5.36B

Estimated

$5.34B

Surprise

+$22.31M

Surprise %

+0.42%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$2.62$2.49$2.26$3.06$2.35$2.33$2.09$2.88
EPS (Estimated)$2.57$2.44$2.23$2.97$2.30$2.21$2.06$2.79
EPS Surprise+$0.05+$0.05+$0.03+$0.09+$0.05+$0.12+$0.03+$0.09
% Diff+1.9%+2.0%+1.3%+3.0%+2.2%+5.4%+1.5%+3.2%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$5.36B$5.18B$5.13B$5.55B$5.05B$4.83B$4.77B$5.25B
Revenue (Estimated)$5.34B$5.14B$5.04B$5.49B$4.97B$4.77B$4.74B$5.22B
Revenue Surprise+$22.31M+$40.04M+$82.75M+$61.76M+$77.97M+$58.52M+$26.42M+$28.97M
% Diff+0.4%+0.8%+1.6%+1.1%+1.6%+1.2%+0.6%+0.6%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

ADP currently trades at a valuation range below its recent historical highs, showing a moderate price level relative to earnings and cash flows with potential upside supported by steady earnings and revenue growth. While the market sentiment reflects a cautious stance with a consensus "Hold" rating, there is a notable price target upside from analysts indicating room for appreciation. The companys stable financial metrics, profitability, and share repurchase program provide a solid fundamental base amid sector-average valuations.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

18.00

TTM

Price to Sales

3.60

TTM

Price to Book

11.92

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

12.16

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

3.70

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings24.4529.3534.3824.8730.9729.5129.0521.25
Price to Sales19.3822.9824.4222.3923.6323.3620.2119.17
Price to Book16.2518.6620.2321.2323.5021.1021.1921.76
Enterprise Value to EBITDA65.0780.4392.1668.3478.7979.0373.1457.52
Enterprise Value to Revenue19.7924.3425.5422.6724.0424.7220.3719.19

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

ADP currently faces mixed market sentiment with a predominant hold recommendation from analysts despite significant undervaluation compared to its historical valuation metrics. Recent earnings outperformed estimates, and steady dividend growth bolsters confidence, but persistent macroeconomic concerns and AI competition fuel cautious investor views. Retail sentiment remains cautious with signs of oversold conditions potentially setting up for a rebound, though risks linger in employment growth and margin pressures.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.1 / 5.0
Based on 19 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
2
Hold
12
Buy
3
Strong Buy
1

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

ADP maintains a generally stable financial position with moderate leverage and adequate short-term liquidity, though its current ratio is slightly below the ideal benchmark for strong liquidity. Operational and regulatory complexities, combined with labor market sensitivity and competitive pressure, present measurable risks that could impact revenue growth and margin sustainability. From an investor perspective, ADP's risk profile aligns moderately with sector peers, balancing steady cash flows against cyclical influences in staffing services.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.03

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.03

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.72

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.05

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.031.051.051.021.001.011.011.01
Quick Ratio1.031.051.051.021.001.011.011.01
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.721.491.460.730.841.620.810.73
Debt-to-Assets0.050.180.170.080.070.180.070.05

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.03(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.03(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.72(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.05(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about ADP

AI Answers: Common Questions About ADP

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

ADP is trading at $188.79, near its 52-week low and with a P/E of 18.15, below its historical median and sector highs. While technicals are bearish, the stock is fundamentally strong and fairly valued, making it a good buy for long-term investors willing to tolerate short-term volatility.

Unless your investment horizon is very short or you cannot tolerate further downside, selling now is not recommended; fundamentals remain intact and valuation is reasonable. However, if you are a short-term trader, technicals suggest more downside is possible before a reversal.

The biggest risks are a recession impacting employment/payroll volumes, margin compression in the PEO segment, and regulatory complexity. ADP's current ratio is just above 1, and debt-to-equity is under 1, so liquidity and solvency are stable but not excessive.

Technical resistance is at $203.50-$210.00, with downside support at $186.70 and $179.00. Analyst price targets range from $208 to $332, implying 33-38% upside from current levels if fundamentals are realized and sentiment improves.

ADP is fairly valued with a P/E of 18.15 and EV/EBITDA around 12, both below historical peaks and in line with sector averages. The stock is not overvalued and offers upside if growth continues.

ADP is fundamentally strong, with 7% revenue and 10% EPS growth YoY, gross margins above 50%, net margins near 20%, and high ROE in the mid-30% range. Recurring revenue, high client retention, and low debt support long-term stability.

Technically, ADP is in a strong downtrend, trading below all major moving averages with a death cross and RSI at 26.9 (oversold). No reversal patterns are present; support is at $186.70-$179.00, resistance at $203.50-$210.00.

Key catalysts include the Q3 earnings report on April 29, 2026, potential technical stabilization or reversal, dividend announcements, and macroeconomic developments affecting employment and HR tech adoption.

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