ADSK AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)
Autodesk (ADSK) offers strong long-term growth prospects and robust fundamentals, but current technical weakness and moderate liquidity risks warrant caution for new entries. While sentiment and analyst targets remain bullish, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for short-term traders but continued confidence for long-term investors.
Fundamentals
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) demonstrates robust fundamentals, with consistent top-line growth and strong margin dynamics reflective of its entrenched position in the design software industry. Earnings momentum remains positive, supported by high gross margins, healthy operating leverage, and a well-executed transition to a recurring subscription model.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
19.84% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
4.29% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.5B | 1.4B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +19.84% | +18.25% | +17.53% | +15.65% | +11.62% | +11.93% | +12.95% | +13.05% |
| Net Income | 316.0M | 343.0M | 313.0M | 152.0M | 303.0M | 275.0M | 282.0M | 252.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +4.29% | +24.73% | +10.99% | -39.68% | +7.45% | +14.11% | +27.03% | +56.52% |
| EPS | $1.49 | $1.61 | $1.47 | $0.71 | $1.41 | $1.28 | $1.31 | $1.17 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +5.73% | +25.78% | +12.21% | -39.32% | +6.77% | +13.27% | +25.96% | +56.00% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 92.74% | 92.44% | 92.29% | 90.20% | 89.83% | 89.79% | 89.80% | 89.52% |
| Operating Margin | 27.13% | 25.63% | 25.18% | 14.27% | 23.45% | 22.40% | 23.53% | 21.74% |
| Net Margin | 16.15% | 18.51% | 17.75% | 9.31% | 18.55% | 17.55% | 18.80% | 17.85% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 10.38% | 11.86% | 11.53% | 5.81% | 11.56% | 10.51% | 11.40% | 11.66% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 4.10% | 5.34% | 5.17% | 2.64% | 5.04% | 5.21% | 5.53% | 4.92% |
Technical Analysis
ADSK is exhibiting a strong bearish technical profile with prices well below key moving averages, confirming a downtrend pattern. Momentum indicators are neutral, reflecting lack of significant buying pressure, and the stock remains in the declining phase, suggesting caution for traders. Recent price action is range-bound with weak trend strength, indicating potential consolidation or continuation of downside risk.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Range-bound market
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) demonstrates robust fundamentals, with consistent top-line growth and strong margin dynamics reflective of its entrenched position in the design software industry. Earnings momentum remains positive, supported by high gross margins, healthy operating leverage, and a well-executed transition to a recurring subscription model.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$2.85
Estimated
$2.65
Surprise
+$0.20
Surprise %
+7.55%
Revenue
Actual
$1.96B
Estimated
$1.91B
Surprise
+$42.95M
Surprise %
+2.24%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $2.85 | $2.67 | $2.62 | $2.29 | $2.29 | $2.17 | $2.15 | $1.87 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $2.65 | $2.50 | $2.45 | $2.15 | $2.14 | $2.12 | $2.00 | $1.80 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.20 | +$0.17 | +$0.17 | +$0.14 | +$0.15 | +$0.05 | +$0.15 | +$0.07 |
| % Diff | +7.5% | +6.8% | +6.9% | +6.5% | +7.0% | +2.4% | +7.5% | +3.9% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $1.96B | $1.85B | $1.76B | $1.63B | $1.64B | $1.57B | $1.51B | $1.42B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $1.91B | $1.81B | $1.72B | $1.61B | $1.63B | $1.56B | $1.48B | $1.4B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$42.95M | +$45.84M | +$38.26M | +$18.33M | +$7.06M | +$7.9M | +$22.65M | +$16.39M |
| % Diff | +2.2% | +2.5% | +2.2% | +1.1% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +1.5% | +1.2% |
Valuation
Autodesk (ADSK) presents a premium valuation profile within the software sector, supported by solid revenue growth and profitability metrics. Despite a high valuation multiple relative to industry averages, strong operational efficiency and positive analyst sentiment underline potential upside. The stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued against its historical averages with justified premiums due to its growth prospects and market position.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 42.41 | 46.78 | 51.57 | 96.53 | 55.23 | 55.47 | 47.40 | 45.40 |
| Price to Sales | 27.39 | 34.64 | 36.62 | 35.94 | 40.99 | 38.94 | 35.64 | 32.41 |
| Price to Book | 17.61 | 22.19 | 23.78 | 22.43 | 25.54 | 23.32 | 21.61 | 21.18 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 109.28 | 138.15 | 131.38 | 209.22 | 162.44 | 155.78 | 137.07 | 133.80 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 27.64 | 35.04 | 37.04 | 36.39 | 41.58 | 39.67 | 36.37 | 33.07 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Autodesk (ADSK) currently enjoys predominantly positive market sentiment, supported by steady analyst buy ratings and optimistic price targets projecting substantial upside potential. Despite recent modest price declines, investors are encouraged by solid earnings growth, expanding AI capabilities, and strong positioning within its sector. Social media and retail investor sentiment also trend bullish, reinforcing confidence in ADSK's growth trajectory over the coming months.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Autodesk's financial health shows moderate liquidity concerns with current and quick ratios below 1, indicating potential challenges covering short-term obligations without reliance on inventory or cash inflows. However, its solvency profile is balanced with manageable debt levels relative to equity and assets. The firm faces macroeconomic uncertainties, execution risks from transitioning to new billing models, and competitive pressures, but benefits from positive analyst sentiment and strong revenue growth driven by AI integration and software portfolio strength.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.21 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.85(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.85(Adequate)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.90(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.22(Low)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about ADSK
AI Answers: Common Questions About ADSK
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Autodesk, Inc.
Autodesk is not an ideal buy right now for short-term traders due to a confirmed technical downtrend and price below key moving averages (currently $236.07, with resistance at $243 and $270). However, for long-term investors, the stock’s strong fundamentals, recurring revenues, and analyst targets ($324–$342) support a buy on weakness or after a technical reversal.
There is no fundamental reason to sell if you are a long-term investor, as the business remains strong and analyst targets imply significant upside. However, if you are a short-term trader or risk-averse, you may consider reducing exposure until the technical picture improves.
The biggest risks are Autodesk’s liquidity ratios (current and quick ratio both under 1, recently improving to ~0.85), high valuation (P/E 45.14), and exposure to macroeconomic cycles in construction and manufacturing. Execution risks in SaaS transition and competitive pressures are also notable.
Analyst price targets average $324–$342, implying 30%+ upside from current levels. Technical resistance is at $243 (50-day SMA), $270 (150-day SMA), and $278 (200-day SMA), with support at $214.10 (52-week low); a breakout above $243 would be a bullish signal.
Autodesk is trading at a premium (P/E 45.14, high EV/EBITDA and P/S), fairly valued to slightly undervalued versus its own history but expensive relative to sector averages. The premium is justified by superior growth (FY25 revenue up 17.5%) and profitability (gross margin >90%).
Fundamentally, Autodesk is very strong: FY25 revenue grew 17.5% to $7.2B, net margins are stable at 16%, and gross margins exceed 90%. The SaaS model ensures high recurring revenue and operational leverage, though liquidity ratios are a weak spot.
Technical analysis is bearish: the stock is below all major moving averages, a death cross is in place, and RSI is neutral at 46. No reversal patterns are present; support is at $214, resistance at $243 and $270. Wait for a breakout above $243 with volume before considering new entries.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (recent Q4 beat with $2.85 EPS and $1.95B revenue), further AI/cloud product launches, and any macro improvement in construction/manufacturing. Watch for technical breakouts and guidance updates.
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