ADSK AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)
Fundamentals
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) exhibits the characteristics of a mature technology leader with a track record of robust recurring revenues, though it faces increased volatility and operational pressures in the current environment. Despite current price weakness and heightened valuation, the company's underlying fundamentals and position in key digitalization trends remain notable.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
19.84% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
4.29% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.5B | 1.4B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +19.84% | +18.25% | +17.53% | +15.65% | +11.62% | +11.93% | +12.95% | +13.05% |
| Net Income | 316.0M | 343.0M | 313.0M | 152.0M | 303.0M | 275.0M | 282.0M | 252.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +4.29% | +24.73% | +10.99% | -39.68% | +7.45% | +14.11% | +27.03% | +56.52% |
| EPS | $1.49 | $1.61 | $1.47 | $0.71 | $1.41 | $1.28 | $1.31 | $1.17 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +5.73% | +25.78% | +12.21% | -39.32% | +6.77% | +13.27% | +25.96% | +56.00% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 92.74% | 92.44% | 92.29% | 90.20% | 89.83% | 89.79% | 89.80% | 89.52% |
| Operating Margin | 27.13% | 25.63% | 25.18% | 14.27% | 23.45% | 22.40% | 23.53% | 21.74% |
| Net Margin | 16.15% | 18.51% | 17.75% | 9.31% | 18.55% | 17.55% | 18.80% | 17.85% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 10.38% | 11.86% | 11.53% | 5.81% | 11.56% | 10.51% | 11.40% | 11.66% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 4.10% | 5.34% | 5.17% | 2.64% | 5.04% | 5.21% | 5.53% | 4.92% |
Technical Analysis
Unable to retrieve direct technical indicator values for ADSK due to temporary data access issues. However, based on recent price action and volume trends, the stock has shown bearish pressure with a descent from recent highs near $223 down to current levels around $218. This suggests a short-term caution for momentum traders, while longer-term technicals may require additional data for confirmation.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Trend developing
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) exhibits the characteristics of a mature technology leader with a track record of robust recurring revenues, though it faces increased volatility and operational pressures in the current environment. Despite current price weakness and heightened valuation, the company's underlying fundamentals and position in key digitalization trends remain notable.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$2.85
Estimated
$2.65
Surprise
+$0.20
Surprise %
+7.55%
Revenue
Actual
$1.96B
Estimated
$1.91B
Surprise
+$42.95M
Surprise %
+2.24%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $2.85 | $2.67 | $2.62 | $2.29 | $2.29 | $2.17 | $2.15 | $1.87 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $2.65 | $2.50 | $2.45 | $2.15 | $2.14 | $2.12 | $2.00 | $1.80 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.20 | +$0.17 | +$0.17 | +$0.14 | +$0.15 | +$0.05 | +$0.15 | +$0.07 |
| % Diff | +7.5% | +6.8% | +6.9% | +6.5% | +7.0% | +2.4% | +7.5% | +3.9% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $1.96B | $1.85B | $1.76B | $1.63B | $1.64B | $1.57B | $1.51B | $1.42B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $1.91B | $1.81B | $1.72B | $1.61B | $1.63B | $1.56B | $1.48B | $1.4B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$42.95M | +$45.84M | +$38.26M | +$18.33M | +$7.06M | +$7.9M | +$22.65M | +$16.39M |
| % Diff | +2.2% | +2.5% | +2.2% | +1.1% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +1.5% | +1.2% |
Valuation
Autodesk (ADSK) is currently trading at a premium valuation relative to the broader software industry but slightly discounted compared to its closest peers, reflecting its strong business fundamentals and growth profile. Despite a recent share price decline and some valuation concerns, the stock benefits from robust profitability, solid revenue growth, and favorable market positioning, particularly in AI integration within design and engineering software.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 42.41 | 46.78 | 51.57 | 96.53 | 55.23 | 55.47 | 47.40 | 45.40 |
| Price to Sales | 27.39 | 34.64 | 36.62 | 35.94 | 40.99 | 38.94 | 35.64 | 32.41 |
| Price to Book | 17.61 | 22.19 | 23.78 | 22.43 | 25.54 | 23.32 | 21.61 | 21.18 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 109.28 | 138.15 | 131.38 | 209.22 | 162.44 | 155.78 | 137.07 | 133.80 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 27.64 | 35.04 | 37.04 | 36.39 | 41.58 | 39.67 | 36.37 | 33.07 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Autodesk (ADSK) currently faces mixed sentiment in the market. While the company reports solid financial performance and maintains a strong recurring revenue base, recent share price declines and valuation concerns have tempered near-term investor enthusiasm. Analysts maintain a generally positive stance with moderate buy consensus, but some have reduced price targets reflecting caution, while retail and social sentiment remain upbeat, emphasizing the firm's innovation and growth prospects.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Autodesk exhibits moderate financial risk characterized by suboptimal liquidity ratios below conventional comfort thresholds, alongside a manageable but notable leverage level. The company operates in competitive and cyclical markets with increasing pressure from AI advancements and technology shifts affecting the software landscape. While financial fundamentals and AI investments suggest sustained growth potential, ongoing restructuring and market volatility introduce caution for investors.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.21 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.85(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.85(Adequate)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.90(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.22(Low)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about ADSK
AI Answers: Common Questions About ADSK
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Autodesk, Inc.
Autodesk is not an ideal buy at current levels for most investors due to a high P/E (41.85), recent price weakness (down nearly 35% from the 52-week high of $329.09), and technical signals pointing to further downside risk. Waiting for stabilization above $214 support or a positive catalyst is prudent.
If you already hold ADSK, selling may not be necessary unless $214 support decisively breaks or your risk tolerance is low; the long-term thesis remains intact, but short-term volatility and technical weakness suggest caution on adding or holding large positions.
The biggest risks are suboptimal liquidity (current ratio below 1), moderate leverage (debt/equity near 0.9), and exposure to cyclical end markets; competitive threats from AI-driven rivals and macroeconomic downturns could further pressure margins and growth.
Key technical levels are $214 (support) and $223 (resistance); a break below $214 could target $200, while analyst consensus price target remains around $340, reflecting long-term optimism despite near-term volatility.
ADSK is fairly valued relative to direct peers but trades at a premium to the broader software sector, with high gross margins (80%+), strong ROE (near 37%), and elevated EV/EBITDA multiples reflecting growth expectations; further multiple compression is possible if growth slows.
Fundamentally, Autodesk is strong: it boasts high recurring revenue, robust margins, and a leading market position, but faces recent earnings volatility and liquidity concerns that warrant monitoring.
Technically, the stock is under pressure with increased selling volume and price testing 52-week lows near $214; momentum is negative, and a break below support could accelerate downside, so traders should wait for clearer reversal signals.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (which could signal stabilization or further weakness), new AI-driven product launches, and macroeconomic developments affecting construction and manufacturing demand.
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