ADSK AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) exhibits the characteristics of a mature technology leader with a track record of robust recurring revenues, though it faces increased volatility and operational pressures in the current environment. Despite current price weakness and heightened valuation, the company's underlying fundamentals and position in key digitalization trends remain notable.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B$2.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)9%12%15%18%21%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$1.96B

19.84% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$316.00M

4.29% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

16.15%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

19.84%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

4.29%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

21.54%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

5.73%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

17.82%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue2.0B1.9B1.8B1.6B1.6B1.6B1.5B1.4B
Revenue Growth YoY+19.84%+18.25%+17.53%+15.65%+11.62%+11.93%+12.95%+13.05%
Net Income316.0M343.0M313.0M152.0M303.0M275.0M282.0M252.0M
Net Income Growth YoY+4.29%+24.73%+10.99%-39.68%+7.45%+14.11%+27.03%+56.52%
EPS$1.49$1.61$1.47$0.71$1.41$1.28$1.31$1.17
EPS Growth YoY+5.73%+25.78%+12.21%-39.32%+6.77%+13.27%+25.96%+56.00%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

90.24%

TTM

Operating Margin

24.90%

TTM

Net Margin

15.60%

TTM

Return on Equity

39.89%

TTM

Return on Assets

14.59%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin92.74%92.44%92.29%90.20%89.83%89.79%89.80%89.52%
Operating Margin27.13%25.63%25.18%14.27%23.45%22.40%23.53%21.74%
Net Margin16.15%18.51%17.75%9.31%18.55%17.55%18.80%17.85%
Return on Equity (ROE)10.38%11.86%11.53%5.81%11.56%10.51%11.40%11.66%
Return on Assets (ROA)4.10%5.34%5.17%2.64%5.04%5.21%5.53%4.92%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Unable to retrieve direct technical indicator values for ADSK due to temporary data access issues. However, based on recent price action and volume trends, the stock has shown bearish pressure with a descent from recent highs near $223 down to current levels around $218. This suggests a short-term caution for momentum traders, while longer-term technicals may require additional data for confirmation.

RSI
Hold
Neutral33

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-23.4% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend24

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$218.45
50 SMA
$241.05
150 SMA
$280.90
200 SMA
$285.27
52W High
$329.09
52W Low
$214.10

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
33Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) exhibits the characteristics of a mature technology leader with a track record of robust recurring revenues, though it faces increased volatility and operational pressures in the current environment. Despite current price weakness and heightened valuation, the company's underlying fundamentals and position in key digitalization trends remain notable.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$2.85

Estimated

$2.65

Surprise

+$0.20

Surprise %

+7.55%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$1.96B

Estimated

$1.91B

Surprise

+$42.95M

Surprise %

+2.24%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$2.85$2.67$2.62$2.29$2.29$2.17$2.15$1.87
EPS (Estimated)$2.65$2.50$2.45$2.15$2.14$2.12$2.00$1.80
EPS Surprise+$0.20+$0.17+$0.17+$0.14+$0.15+$0.05+$0.15+$0.07
% Diff+7.5%+6.8%+6.9%+6.5%+7.0%+2.4%+7.5%+3.9%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$1.96B$1.85B$1.76B$1.63B$1.64B$1.57B$1.51B$1.42B
Revenue (Estimated)$1.91B$1.81B$1.72B$1.61B$1.63B$1.56B$1.48B$1.4B
Revenue Surprise+$42.95M+$45.84M+$38.26M+$18.33M+$7.06M+$7.9M+$22.65M+$16.39M
% Diff+2.2%+2.5%+2.2%+1.1%+0.4%+0.5%+1.5%+1.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Autodesk (ADSK) is currently trading at a premium valuation relative to the broader software industry but slightly discounted compared to its closest peers, reflecting its strong business fundamentals and growth profile. Despite a recent share price decline and some valuation concerns, the stock benefits from robust profitability, solid revenue growth, and favorable market positioning, particularly in AI integration within design and engineering software.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

41.20

TTM

Price to Sales

6.43

TTM

Price to Book

15.21

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

26.80

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

6.49

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings42.4146.7851.5796.5355.2355.4747.4045.40
Price to Sales27.3934.6436.6235.9440.9938.9435.6432.41
Price to Book17.6122.1923.7822.4325.5423.3221.6121.18
Enterprise Value to EBITDA109.28138.15131.38209.22162.44155.78137.07133.80
Enterprise Value to Revenue27.6435.0437.0436.3941.5839.6736.3733.07

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Autodesk (ADSK) currently faces mixed sentiment in the market. While the company reports solid financial performance and maintains a strong recurring revenue base, recent share price declines and valuation concerns have tempered near-term investor enthusiasm. Analysts maintain a generally positive stance with moderate buy consensus, but some have reduced price targets reflecting caution, while retail and social sentiment remain upbeat, emphasizing the firm's innovation and growth prospects.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 32 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
3
Buy
23
Strong Buy
6

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Autodesk exhibits moderate financial risk characterized by suboptimal liquidity ratios below conventional comfort thresholds, alongside a manageable but notable leverage level. The company operates in competitive and cyclical markets with increasing pressure from AI advancements and technology shifts affecting the software landscape. While financial fundamentals and AI investments suggest sustained growth potential, ongoing restructuring and market volatility introduce caution for investors.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.85

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.85

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.90

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.22

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.850.820.760.650.680.650.640.69
Quick Ratio0.850.820.760.650.680.650.640.69
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.900.951.010.970.980.991.051.21
Debt-to-Assets0.220.240.250.240.240.250.260.27

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.85(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.85(Adequate)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.90(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.22(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about ADSK

AI Answers: Common Questions About ADSK

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Autodesk, Inc.

Autodesk is not an ideal buy at current levels for most investors due to a high P/E (41.85), recent price weakness (down nearly 35% from the 52-week high of $329.09), and technical signals pointing to further downside risk. Waiting for stabilization above $214 support or a positive catalyst is prudent.

If you already hold ADSK, selling may not be necessary unless $214 support decisively breaks or your risk tolerance is low; the long-term thesis remains intact, but short-term volatility and technical weakness suggest caution on adding or holding large positions.

The biggest risks are suboptimal liquidity (current ratio below 1), moderate leverage (debt/equity near 0.9), and exposure to cyclical end markets; competitive threats from AI-driven rivals and macroeconomic downturns could further pressure margins and growth.

Key technical levels are $214 (support) and $223 (resistance); a break below $214 could target $200, while analyst consensus price target remains around $340, reflecting long-term optimism despite near-term volatility.

ADSK is fairly valued relative to direct peers but trades at a premium to the broader software sector, with high gross margins (80%+), strong ROE (near 37%), and elevated EV/EBITDA multiples reflecting growth expectations; further multiple compression is possible if growth slows.

Fundamentally, Autodesk is strong: it boasts high recurring revenue, robust margins, and a leading market position, but faces recent earnings volatility and liquidity concerns that warrant monitoring.

Technically, the stock is under pressure with increased selling volume and price testing 52-week lows near $214; momentum is negative, and a break below support could accelerate downside, so traders should wait for clearer reversal signals.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (which could signal stabilization or further weakness), new AI-driven product launches, and macroeconomic developments affecting construction and manufacturing demand.

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