ADSK AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

$264.12+6.23 (+2.42%) today

Open
$258.05
High
$264.75
Low
$257.01
Volume
1.96M
Mkt Cap
$56.26B
52W High
$329.09
AI Verdict
Confidence 87%
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Autodesk (ADSK) remains a fundamentally robust software leader with strong recurring revenues and high margins, but faces a premium valuation and moderate operational/regulatory risks. While long-term prospects are attractive, current technicals suggest consolidation and short-term caution is warranted. Investors should monitor upcoming catalysts and risk factors before taking new positions.

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Short
HOLD
Medium
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Long
Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Autodesk (ADSK) maintains strong underlying fundamentals, demonstrated by resilient double-digit revenue growth, robust margins, and solid earnings expansion in the latest fiscal year. Its recurring software revenue model, high gross margins, and steady operating leverage underpin a stable financial profile, though valuation appears rich relative to historical norms.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$500.0M$1.0B$1.5B$2.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)9%12%15%18%21%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$1.96B

19.84% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$316.00M

4.29% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

16.15%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

19.84%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

4.29%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

21.54%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

5.73%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

17.82%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue2.0B1.9B1.8B1.6B1.6B1.6B1.5B1.4B
Revenue Growth YoY+19.84%+18.25%+17.53%+15.65%+11.62%+11.93%+12.95%+13.05%
Net Income316.0M343.0M313.0M152.0M303.0M275.0M282.0M252.0M
Net Income Growth YoY+4.29%+24.73%+10.99%-39.68%+7.45%+14.11%+27.03%+56.52%
EPS$1.49$1.61$1.47$0.71$1.41$1.28$1.31$1.17
EPS Growth YoY+5.73%+25.78%+12.21%-39.32%+6.77%+13.27%+25.96%+56.00%

Profitability Metrics

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Technical indicator data is currently unavailable, limiting the ability to use exact RSI, moving averages, and ADX values. However, an alternative approach using external sources will provide insight on ADSK's chart patterns, momentum, and key price levels. The recent price movement around $254 suggests medium-term consolidation after a pullback from a 52-week high near $329.

RSI
Hold
Neutral63

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

-9.6% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend36

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Hold
Death Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$264.12
50 SMA
$259.67
150 SMA
$289.55
200 SMA
$292.06
52W High
$329.09
52W Low
$215.01

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
63Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Autodesk (ADSK) maintains strong underlying fundamentals, demonstrated by resilient double-digit revenue growth, robust margins, and solid earnings expansion in the latest fiscal year. Its recurring software revenue model, high gross margins, and steady operating leverage underpin a stable financial profile, though valuation appears rich relative to historical norms.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$2.85

Estimated

$2.65

Surprise

+$0.20

Surprise %

+7.55%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$1.96B

Estimated

$1.91B

Surprise

+$42.95M

Surprise %

+2.24%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$2.85$2.67$2.62$2.29$2.29$2.17$2.15$1.87
EPS (Estimated)$2.65$2.50$2.45$2.15$2.14$2.12$2.00$1.80
EPS Surprise+$0.20+$0.17+$0.17+$0.14+$0.15+$0.05+$0.15+$0.07
% Diff+7.5%+6.8%+6.9%+6.5%+7.0%+2.4%+7.5%+3.9%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$1.96B$1.85B$1.76B$1.63B$1.64B$1.57B$1.51B$1.42B
Revenue (Estimated)$1.91B$1.81B$1.72B$1.61B$1.63B$1.56B$1.48B$1.4B
Revenue Surprise+$42.95M+$45.84M+$38.26M+$18.33M+$7.06M+$7.9M+$22.65M+$16.39M
% Diff+2.2%+2.5%+2.2%+1.1%+0.4%+0.5%+1.5%+1.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Autodesk (ADSK) currently trades at premium valuation multiples compared to the broader software sector but shows relative compression against its own historical highs and some direct peers. The company's forward growth prospects, strong profitability, and robust cash flows provide a solid fundamental foundation, supported by generally positive analyst sentiment and price targets indicating significant upside potential. However, the high valuation metrics call for caution against downside risks in a fluctuating tech investment environment.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

49.82

TTM

Price to Sales

7.81

TTM

Price to Book

18.39

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

32.50

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

7.87

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings42.4146.7851.5796.5355.2355.4747.4045.40
Price to Sales27.3934.6436.6235.9440.9938.9435.6432.41
Price to Book17.6122.1923.7822.4325.5423.3221.6121.18
Enterprise Value to EBITDA109.28138.15131.38209.22162.44155.78137.07133.80
Enterprise Value to Revenue27.6435.0437.0436.3941.5839.6736.3733.07

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

The sentiment around Autodesk (ADSK) is broadly positive, bolstered by strong Q4 fiscal 2026 results and an optimistic outlook for fiscal 2027. Analysts largely endorse a buy stance with price targets significantly above the current trading level, despite some downward adjustments. Social media shows mild short-term caution, but overall market confidence remains strong, supported by strategic investments in AI and data.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 32 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
3
Buy
23
Strong Buy
6

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Autodesk (ADSK) exhibits a moderate financial risk profile characterized by liquidity ratios below the preferred threshold and leverage that is moderate but improving. The company faces significant regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges, alongside competitive pressures from major software and emerging AI platforms, which introduce execution and market risks. Investors should weigh the growth potential from digital transformation initiatives against these operational and regulatory headwinds.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.85

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.85

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.90

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.22

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.850.820.760.650.680.650.640.69
Quick Ratio0.850.820.760.650.680.650.640.69
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.900.951.010.970.980.991.051.21
Debt-to-Assets0.220.240.250.240.240.250.260.27

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.85(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.85(Adequate)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.90(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.22(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about ADSK

AI Answers: Common Questions About ADSK

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Autodesk, Inc.

Autodesk is not a screaming buy at $254.24, trading at a P/E of 49.27 and near the lower end of its 52-week range, but still at a premium to historical averages. While fundamentals and analyst targets ($336-$342) support long-term upside, short-term technicals and regulatory risks suggest waiting for a breakout or pullback before adding aggressively.

Unless your thesis has changed or you have a low risk tolerance, there is no urgent reason to sell; fundamentals remain strong and sentiment is positive. However, if you are concerned about short-term volatility or regulatory headlines, trimming or hedging may be prudent until technicals improve.

The biggest risks are regulatory investigations (SEC/DOJ), ongoing class action lawsuits, and suboptimal liquidity (current and quick ratios ~0.85). Additional risks include restructuring execution, margin pressure from competition, and macro sensitivity to construction/manufacturing cycles.

Analyst consensus targets are $336-$342, implying significant upside from current levels. Technically, key resistance is $260-$265; a breakout above this could target $280+, while failure of $245 support could see downside to $235.

ADSK is fairly valued relative to peers and its own history, with a P/E of 49.27 and high EV/EBITDA multiples reflecting growth expectations. While not as overvalued as during past peaks, the stock still trades at a premium, justified by strong profitability and cash flows but sensitive to growth disappointments.

Fundamentally, Autodesk is very strong: revenue grew 17.4% YoY, EPS up 21%, and gross margins consistently above 90%. The SaaS model ensures high recurring revenue and cash flow, though liquidity ratios are below ideal and regulatory risks persist.

Technicals are neutral: the stock is consolidating between $245 support and $260-$265 resistance, with momentum indicators mixed and volume light. No clear breakout or breakdown is evident, so traders should wait for confirmation before entering new positions.

Key catalysts include the next earnings report (with FY2027 guidance), progress in AI-driven product launches, resolution of regulatory/legal issues, and any macro shifts affecting construction and manufacturing demand.

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