COST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
Fundamentals
Costco Wholesale Corporation exhibits robust and consistent financial performance driven by steady revenue growth and operational efficiency. The company maintains healthy profitability margins despite a competitive discount retail landscape, supported by strong membership loyalty and scale advantages. Earnings trends demonstrate reliable growth, reflecting effective management and resilient demand across economic cycles.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
11.58% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
15.19% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 70.5B | 69.6B | 86.2B | 63.2B | 62.2B | 79.7B | 58.5B | 57.8B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +11.58% | +11.98% | +8.10% | +8.02% | +7.53% | +0.96% | +9.07% | +4.58% |
| Net Income | 2.2B | 2.0B | 2.6B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 2.4B | 1.7B | 1.6B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +15.19% | +13.18% | +10.88% | +13.21% | +13.15% | +8.98% | +29.11% | +8.39% |
| EPS | $4.94 | $4.58 | $5.88 | $4.29 | $4.05 | $5.30 | $3.79 | $3.58 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +15.15% | +13.09% | +10.94% | +13.19% | +13.13% | +8.83% | +29.35% | +8.48% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
COST is currently in a topping phase with price trading below key moving averages, indicating a bearish primary trend despite the 50 SMA remaining above the 200 SMA (golden cross). Momentum is neutral to weakening, with RSI in a balanced zone and ADX signaling a lack of strong trend, suggesting range-bound or volatile price action ahead.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Range-bound market
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Costco Wholesale Corporation exhibits robust and consistent financial performance driven by steady revenue growth and operational efficiency. The company maintains healthy profitability margins despite a competitive discount retail landscape, supported by strong membership loyalty and scale advantages. Earnings trends demonstrate reliable growth, reflecting effective management and resilient demand across economic cycles.
Latest Earnings
Q1 2026 Earnings (May 10, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$4.93
Estimated
$5.00
Surprise
$-0.07
Surprise %
-1.40%
Revenue
Actual
$70.53B
Estimated
$69.83B
Surprise
+$697.77M
Surprise %
+1.00%
Historical Earnings
| Q1 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $4.93 | $4.58 | $4.58 | $4.34 | $5.87 | $4.28 | $4.02 | $3.82 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $5.00 | $4.55 | $4.55 | $4.27 | $5.80 | $4.24 | $4.09 | $3.79 |
| EPS Surprise | -$0.07 | +$0.03 | +$0.03 | +$0.07 | +$0.07 | +$0.04 | -$0.07 | +$0.03 |
| % Diff | -1.4% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +1.6% | +1.2% | +0.9% | -1.7% | +0.8% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $70.53B | $69.6B | $69.6B | $67.31B | $86.16B | $63.21B | $63.72B | $62.15B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $69.83B | $69.32B | $69.29B | $67.14B | $86.01B | $63.13B | $63.11B | $62.05B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$697.77M | +$275.86M | +$310.57M | +$163.77M | +$142.44M | +$75.39M | +$613.12M | +$101.01M |
| % Diff | +1.0% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +1.0% | +0.2% |
Valuation
Costco Wholesale Corporation currently trades at a premium valuation relative to its sector peers, reflecting strong earnings growth and solid financial health. Analyst consensus is generally bullish with moderate buy ratings and average price targets indicating around 11-12% upside potential over the next 12 months. The company’s robust margins, efficient operations, and loyal membership base justify the higher multiples despite elevated absolute valuation levels.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 50.58 | 55.59 | 49.12 | 40.11 | 59.22 | 66.49 | 59.31 | 42.09 |
| Price to Sales | 6.29 | 6.50 | 5.84 | 4.86 | 7.14 | 7.47 | 6.86 | 4.97 |
| Price to Book | 13.24 | 14.09 | 12.98 | 14.36 | 16.63 | 18.61 | 17.45 | 16.77 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 121.38 | 131.96 | 119.86 | 95.35 | 140.72 | 156.70 | 146.62 | 102.02 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 6.14 | 6.37 | 5.73 | 4.79 | 7.05 | 7.40 | 6.82 | 4.95 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) maintains a generally positive market sentiment driven by strong membership revenue, solid earnings growth, and trusted brand reputation. Analysts mostly rate the stock as a moderate buy, though valuation concerns and inflationary pressures temper optimism. Retail investor discussions also reflect confidence in Costco's resilient business model amid some caution about premium pricing.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Costco Wholesale exhibits strong financial health with a low leverage profile and high interest coverage, reflecting robust debt servicing capability. Nonetheless, its liquidity metrics are moderate with current ratios near 1, suggesting tight short-term cash buffers. The company faces moderate risks from geopolitical tariffs, membership renewal slowdowns, and emerging competitive pressures, balanced by strong market dominance and solid growth prospects.
Liquidity & Solvency
Frequently Asked Questions about COST
AI Answers: Common Questions About COST
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Costco Wholesale Corporation
Costco is a good buy for medium to long-term investors due to its consistent revenue growth (~6.4% CAGR), strong membership renewal (>90%), and stable margins (~12.7%-13% gross margin). However, the high P/E ratio of 48.27 suggests paying a premium, so timing entry near technical support levels (around $944-$948) is advisable.
Selling is not recommended unless there is a significant deterioration in membership renewal rates, sustained margin compression from inflation or tariffs, or a major earnings miss that pressures the premium valuation multiples. Short-term traders may consider reducing exposure if price breaks below key support near $944.
Key risks include competitive pressures from Sam's Club and Amazon, inflation and tariff-driven cost increases, potential membership fatigue among younger consumers, regulatory/legal challenges, and valuation multiple contraction if growth slows.
Analyst consensus price targets suggest approximately 11-12% upside over the next 12 months, with resistance levels near $960-$975 in the short term and a 52-week high at $1096.50 as a longer-term target.
Costco is fairly valued at a premium with a P/E ratio of 48.27, EV/EBITDA and P/B multiples roughly double sector averages, justified by strong earnings growth, stable margins, and a loyal membership base providing recurring revenue.
Fundamentals are robust with revenue growing from $242.3B in 2023 to $275.2B in 2025, gross margins stable near 12.7%-13%, operating margins around 3.7%-4.0%, and EPS growth near 9% CAGR. Earnings quality is high with no significant one-time items.
Technically, Costco is in a topping phase with price below the 50, 150, and 200 SMAs, RSI near 51 indicating neutral momentum, and ADX below 20 signaling weak trend strength. Support lies near $944-$948, resistance near $960-$975, suggesting range-bound or volatile price action short term.
Potential catalysts include new warehouse openings, growth in e-commerce and ancillary services, strong quarterly earnings beats, and improvements in membership renewal rates.
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