COST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Costco Wholesale Corporation exhibits robust and consistent financial performance driven by steady revenue growth and operational efficiency. The company maintains healthy profitability margins despite a competitive discount retail landscape, supported by strong membership loyalty and scale advantages. Earnings trends demonstrate reliable growth, reflecting effective management and resilient demand across economic cycles.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B$100.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)2.88%2.94%3%3.06%3.12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$70.53B

11.58% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Income

$2.19B

15.19% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Margin

3.11%

Q1 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

11.58%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

15.19%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

11.59%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

EPS Growth YoY

15.15%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

23.55%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q1 2024Q4 2023
Revenue70.5B69.6B86.2B63.2B62.2B79.7B58.5B57.8B
Revenue Growth YoY+11.58%+11.98%+8.10%+8.02%+7.53%+0.96%+9.07%+4.58%
Net Income2.2B2.0B2.6B1.9B1.8B2.4B1.7B1.6B
Net Income Growth YoY+15.19%+13.18%+10.88%+13.21%+13.15%+8.98%+29.11%+8.39%
EPS$4.94$4.58$5.88$4.29$4.05$5.30$3.79$3.58
EPS Growth YoY+15.15%+13.09%+10.94%+13.19%+13.13%+8.83%+29.35%+8.48%

Profitability Metrics

No profitability metrics available

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

COST is currently in a topping phase with price trading below key moving averages, indicating a bearish primary trend despite the 50 SMA remaining above the 200 SMA (golden cross). Momentum is neutral to weakening, with RSI in a balanced zone and ADX signaling a lack of strong trend, suggesting range-bound or volatile price action ahead.

RSI
Hold
Neutral52

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-0.4% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend14

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$954.08
50 SMA
$957.43
150 SMA
$975.35
200 SMA
$957.92
52W High
$1096.50
52W Low
$844.06

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
52Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Costco Wholesale Corporation exhibits robust and consistent financial performance driven by steady revenue growth and operational efficiency. The company maintains healthy profitability margins despite a competitive discount retail landscape, supported by strong membership loyalty and scale advantages. Earnings trends demonstrate reliable growth, reflecting effective management and resilient demand across economic cycles.

Latest Earnings

Q1 2026 Earnings (May 10, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$4.93

Estimated

$5.00

Surprise

$-0.07

Surprise %

-1.40%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$70.53B

Estimated

$69.83B

Surprise

+$697.77M

Surprise %

+1.00%

Historical Earnings

 Q1 2026Q1 2026Q4 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q1 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$4.93$4.58$4.58$4.34$5.87$4.28$4.02$3.82
EPS (Estimated)$5.00$4.55$4.55$4.27$5.80$4.24$4.09$3.79
EPS Surprise-$0.07+$0.03+$0.03+$0.07+$0.07+$0.04-$0.07+$0.03
% Diff-1.4%+0.7%+0.7%+1.6%+1.2%+0.9%-1.7%+0.8%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$70.53B$69.6B$69.6B$67.31B$86.16B$63.21B$63.72B$62.15B
Revenue (Estimated)$69.83B$69.32B$69.29B$67.14B$86.01B$63.13B$63.11B$62.05B
Revenue Surprise+$697.77M+$275.86M+$310.57M+$163.77M+$142.44M+$75.39M+$613.12M+$101.01M
% Diff+1.0%+0.4%+0.4%+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+1.0%+0.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Costco Wholesale Corporation currently trades at a premium valuation relative to its sector peers, reflecting strong earnings growth and solid financial health. Analyst consensus is generally bullish with moderate buy ratings and average price targets indicating around 11-12% upside potential over the next 12 months. The company’s robust margins, efficient operations, and loyal membership base justify the higher multiples despite elevated absolute valuation levels.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

47.92

TTM

Price to Sales

1.44

TTM

Price to Book

12.64

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

28.50

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.40

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q1 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024
Price to Earnings50.5855.5949.1240.1159.2266.4959.3142.09
Price to Sales6.296.505.844.867.147.476.864.97
Price to Book13.2414.0912.9814.3616.6318.6117.4516.77
Enterprise Value to EBITDA121.38131.96119.8695.35140.72156.70146.62102.02
Enterprise Value to Revenue6.146.375.734.797.057.406.824.95

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) maintains a generally positive market sentiment driven by strong membership revenue, solid earnings growth, and trusted brand reputation. Analysts mostly rate the stock as a moderate buy, though valuation concerns and inflationary pressures temper optimism. Retail investor discussions also reflect confidence in Costco's resilient business model amid some caution about premium pricing.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Jul 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.6 / 5.0
Based on 39 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
1
Hold
14
Buy
19
Strong Buy
4

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Costco Wholesale exhibits strong financial health with a low leverage profile and high interest coverage, reflecting robust debt servicing capability. Nonetheless, its liquidity metrics are moderate with current ratios near 1, suggesting tight short-term cash buffers. The company faces moderate risks from geopolitical tariffs, membership renewal slowdowns, and emerging competitive pressures, balanced by strong market dominance and solid growth prospects.

Liquidity & Solvency

Frequently Asked Questions about COST

AI Answers: Common Questions About COST

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco is a good buy for medium to long-term investors due to its consistent revenue growth (~6.4% CAGR), strong membership renewal (>90%), and stable margins (~12.7%-13% gross margin). However, the high P/E ratio of 48.27 suggests paying a premium, so timing entry near technical support levels (around $944-$948) is advisable.

Selling is not recommended unless there is a significant deterioration in membership renewal rates, sustained margin compression from inflation or tariffs, or a major earnings miss that pressures the premium valuation multiples. Short-term traders may consider reducing exposure if price breaks below key support near $944.

Key risks include competitive pressures from Sam's Club and Amazon, inflation and tariff-driven cost increases, potential membership fatigue among younger consumers, regulatory/legal challenges, and valuation multiple contraction if growth slows.

Analyst consensus price targets suggest approximately 11-12% upside over the next 12 months, with resistance levels near $960-$975 in the short term and a 52-week high at $1096.50 as a longer-term target.

Costco is fairly valued at a premium with a P/E ratio of 48.27, EV/EBITDA and P/B multiples roughly double sector averages, justified by strong earnings growth, stable margins, and a loyal membership base providing recurring revenue.

Fundamentals are robust with revenue growing from $242.3B in 2023 to $275.2B in 2025, gross margins stable near 12.7%-13%, operating margins around 3.7%-4.0%, and EPS growth near 9% CAGR. Earnings quality is high with no significant one-time items.

Technically, Costco is in a topping phase with price below the 50, 150, and 200 SMAs, RSI near 51 indicating neutral momentum, and ADX below 20 signaling weak trend strength. Support lies near $944-$948, resistance near $960-$975, suggesting range-bound or volatile price action short term.

Potential catalysts include new warehouse openings, growth in e-commerce and ancillary services, strong quarterly earnings beats, and improvements in membership renewal rates.

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