COST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

$982.57-24.17 (-2.40%) today

Open
$996.50
High
$999.25
Low
$978.81
Volume
2.75M
Mkt Cap
$436.13B
52W High
$1,067.08
AI Verdict
Confidence 90%
COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Costco (COST) remains a fundamentally robust and defensive retail leader, but its premium valuation and technical consolidation suggest limited near-term upside. While long-term prospects are strong, current price levels warrant caution for new buyers, and the risk/reward profile is balanced. Investors should consider holding existing positions and await either a breakout or a meaningful pullback for new entries.

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Agent Signals
131
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Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Costco Wholesale Corporation demonstrates robust fundamental strength, marked by consistent revenue and earnings growth, expanding margins, and reliable execution. The company continues to exhibit operational excellence, defensibility in its business model, and earnings quality, but its premium valuation warrants measured expectations for total returns.

Financial Highlights

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B$100.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)2.88%2.92%2.96%3%3.04%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$69.60B

11.98% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$2.04B

13.18% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

2.92%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

11.98%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

13.18%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-100.00%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-211.36%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-100.00%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q1 2024Q4 2023Q3 2023
Revenue69.6B86.2B63.2B62.2B79.7B58.5B57.8B78.9B
Revenue Growth YoY+11.98%+8.10%+8.02%+7.53%+0.96%+9.07%+4.58%+9.50%
Net Income2.0B2.6B1.9B1.8B2.4B1.7B1.6B2.2B
Net Income Growth YoY+13.18%+10.88%+13.21%+13.15%+8.98%+29.11%+8.39%+15.63%
EPS-$4.51$5.88$4.29$4.05$5.30$3.79$3.58$4.87
EPS Growth YoY-211.36%+10.94%+13.19%+13.13%+8.83%+29.35%+8.48%+15.68%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

-12.64%

TTM

Operating Margin

3.74%

TTM

Net Margin

2.92%

TTM

Return on Equity

28.81%

TTM

Return on Assets

10.22%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q1 2024Q4 2023Q3 2023
Gross Margin-12.64%12.91%12.99%12.94%12.68%12.55%12.70%12.31%
Operating Margin3.74%3.88%4.00%3.53%3.82%3.75%3.43%3.52%
Net Margin2.92%3.03%3.01%2.89%2.95%2.87%2.75%2.74%
Return on Equity (ROE)6.34%8.95%7.02%7.35%9.97%7.72%6.08%8.62%
Return on Assets (ROA)2.43%3.43%2.52%2.45%3.42%2.48%2.16%3.18%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Costco (COST) is currently in a consolidation phase with a neutral-to-moderate trend developing, supported by strong analyst buy consensus and positive price action near key moving averages. The stock is basing above critical support near the 200-day SMA and showing signs of potential breakout if it surpasses $1,028 resistance. Momentum indicators are neutral to bullish, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook from a trading perspective.

RSI
Hold
Neutral49

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+3.3% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend21

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$982.57
50 SMA
$953.80
150 SMA
$938.85
200 SMA
$951.24
52W High
$1067.08
52W Low
$844.06

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
49Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Costco Wholesale Corporation demonstrates robust fundamental strength, marked by consistent revenue and earnings growth, expanding margins, and reliable execution. The company continues to exhibit operational excellence, defensibility in its business model, and earnings quality, but its premium valuation warrants measured expectations for total returns.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Nov 23, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$4.34

Estimated

$4.27

Surprise

+$0.07

Surprise %

+1.64%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$67.31B

Estimated

$67.14B

Surprise

+$163.77M

Surprise %

+0.24%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q1 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q1 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$4.34$5.87$4.28$4.02$3.82$5.29$3.78$3.92
EPS (Estimated)$4.27$5.80$4.24$4.09$3.79$5.08$3.70$3.62
EPS Surprise+$0.07+$0.07+$0.04-$0.07+$0.03+$0.21+$0.08+$0.30
% Diff+1.6%+1.2%+0.9%-1.7%+0.8%+4.1%+2.2%+8.3%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$67.31B$86.16B$63.21B$63.72B$62.15B$79.7B$58.52B$58.44B
Revenue (Estimated)$67.14B$86.01B$63.13B$63.11B$62.05B$79.91B$58.02B$59.11B
Revenue Surprise+$163.77M+$142.44M+$75.39M+$613.12M+$101.01M-$214.49M+$492.29M-$668.5M
% Diff+0.2%+0.2%+0.1%+1.0%+0.2%-0.3%+0.8%-1.1%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Costco Wholesale Corporation is currently trading at a premium valuation level relative to the broader retail discount store sector, reflecting its strong fundamentals, steady growth, and resilient business model. Despite rich multiples, the company demonstrates healthy financial metrics, moderate growth prospects, and solid analyst support, positioning it as a high-quality growth stock with some valuation risk.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

51.03

TTM

Price to Sales

1.52

TTM

Price to Book

13.60

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

33.08

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.47

TTM

 Q4 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q1 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings0.0049.1540.1259.2766.5459.3242.0851.17
Price to Sales0.005.844.867.147.476.864.975.88
Price to Book0.0012.9814.3616.6318.6117.4516.7715.80
Enterprise Value to EBITDA-7.38119.8495.35140.66156.67146.58102.02120.72
Enterprise Value to Revenue-0.215.724.797.057.406.824.955.86

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

Costco's market sentiment is generally positive, supported by strong sales growth, a resilient membership model, and digital expansion. Analysts largely recommend buying the stock with upside potential, although valuation concerns at a premium P/E multiple temper enthusiasm. Retail investor sentiment mirrors cautious optimism amid solid operational performance and concerns over high valuation.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.6 / 5.0
Based on 37 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
1
Hold
12
Buy
20
Strong Buy
3

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Costco Wholesale Corporation presents a solid investment profile with a conservative capital structure, stable liquidity, and strong earnings growth supported by a loyal membership base and expanding technological integration. The company operates with moderate leverage, minimal short-term liquidity risks, and maintains a resilient business model even amid competitive and macroeconomic pressures. Recent positive analyst sentiment and operational expansions further underpin a modestly favorable investment outlook, though valuation and dependency on core markets pose notable considerations.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.06

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.59

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.08

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.03

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q1 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.061.041.031.021.000.980.970.94
Quick Ratio0.590.590.550.520.520.430.440.45
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.080.270.280.300.310.330.350.43
Debt-to-Assets0.030.100.110.110.110.110.120.14

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.06(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 0.59(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.08(Low)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.03(Low)

The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.

Frequently Asked Questions about COST

AI Answers: Common Questions About COST

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco is not a compelling buy right now given its premium valuation (P/E 53.89, above sector and historical averages) and technical consolidation below resistance at $1,028. While the fundamentals are excellent, new buyers should wait for either a breakout or a pullback toward support ($950) to improve the risk/reward.

There is no urgent reason to sell Costco if you already own it, as fundamentals remain strong and sentiment is positive. However, with the stock trading near all-time highs and technicals showing consolidation, trimming overweight positions or setting stop-losses near $950 support may be prudent if momentum turns negative.

The biggest risks are valuation-driven: a P/E of 53.89 and EV/EBITDA well above sector norms mean any growth slowdown or negative macro surprise could trigger multiple compression. Other risks include potential softness in membership renewal, increased competition, and limited liquidity cushion (quick ratio <0.6).

Analyst price targets average $1,067, with technical resistance at $1,028 and upside targets of $1,050-$1,065 if a breakout occurs. Downside support is at $950 (200-day SMA) and $930; a break below these levels could trigger further declines.

Costco is currently overvalued relative to peers and its own history, with a P/E of 53.89, high EV/EBITDA, and premium P/S multiples. This reflects investor confidence in Costco's quality and growth, but leaves little room for disappointment.

Fundamentally, Costco is very strong: FY25 gross margin expanded to 12.8%, operating margin to 3.77%, net margin to 2.94%, and ROE is ~26%. Revenue and EPS are growing high single digits, balance sheet leverage is low (debt/equity ~0.27), and cash flow is robust.

Technical analysis shows consolidation above the 200-day SMA ($950) with resistance at $1,028; RSI is neutral (59.58), MACD is mildly bullish, but volume does not confirm a breakout. Wait for a move above $1,028 with volume or a dip to support for better entries.

Key catalysts include the upcoming Q2 FY26 earnings report, continued digital and AI-driven margin expansion, tariff refund developments, and new warehouse openings. A confirmed breakout above $1,028 or a positive earnings surprise could drive renewed momentum.

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