DOW AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Dow Inc. (DOW)

$33.72+1.38 (+4.27%) today

Open
$33.48
High
$34.59
Low
$33.21
Volume
24.42M
Mkt Cap
$24.20B
52W High
$38.36
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
DOWDow Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Dow Inc. presents a mixed investment case: while technicals show a bullish uptrend and liquidity is stable, fundamentals are weak with negative earnings, margin compression, and sector headwinds. Valuation is fair but not compelling, sentiment is cautious, and risk is elevated, suggesting investors should hold and await clearer signs of operational turnaround or sector recovery.

By Timeframe
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HOLD
Short
WAIT
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
122
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH

Dow Inc. is currently exhibiting challenged fundamentals, marked by a significant swing from profitability in 2024 to substantial net losses in 2025. Margins have compressed sharply, cash generation has weakened, and recent earnings have consistently fallen short of expectations. While the company retains scale and strategic assets, near-term financial headwinds and sector volatility dominate the outlook.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025-$3.5B$0$3.5B$7.0B$10.5BRevenue & Net Income ($)-18%-12%-6%0%6%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$9.46B

-9.08% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

-$1.54B

-2811.32% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

-16.31%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

-9.08%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-2811.32%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-10.91%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-2604.40%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-3.81%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue9.5B10.0B10.1B10.4B10.4B10.9B10.9B10.8B
Revenue Growth YoY-9.08%-8.33%-7.43%-3.10%-2.03%+1.39%-4.42%-9.16%
Net Income-1.5B62.0M-835.0M-307.0M-53.0M214.0M439.0M516.0M
Net Income Growth YoY-2811.32%-71.03%-290.21%-159.50%+49.52%-29.14%-9.48%+654.84%
EPS-$2.15$0.08-$1.18-$0.44-$0.08$0.30$0.62$0.73
EPS Growth YoY-2604.40%-71.90%-290.32%-160.27%+47.00%-30.23%-8.82%+661.54%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

5.79%

TTM

Operating Margin

-11.04%

TTM

Net Margin

-16.31%

TTM

Return on Equity

-15.53%

TTM

Return on Assets

-5.34%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin5.79%6.91%5.38%6.75%8.43%8.96%11.38%12.54%
Operating Margin-11.04%1.59%0.09%1.32%3.09%3.41%6.01%6.54%
Net Margin-16.31%0.62%-8.26%-2.94%-0.51%1.97%4.02%4.79%
Return on Equity (ROE)-9.64%0.35%-4.85%-1.83%-0.31%1.17%2.40%2.80%
Return on Assets (ROA)-3.14%0.12%-1.72%-0.65%-0.11%0.44%0.91%1.07%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

DOW stock is currently in a strong bullish uptrend, supported by a golden cross with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day MA and price well above both. Momentum is neutral with RSI near 54, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure, while the ADX suggests a weak overall trend strength, implying some consolidation potential ahead. Consolidation and accumulation characterize the current price action, setting the stage for potential further upside continuation.

RSI
Hold
Neutral67

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+30.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend20

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$33.72
50 SMA
$28.50
150 SMA
$24.94
200 SMA
$25.78
52W High
$38.36
52W Low
$20.40

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
67Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH

Dow Inc. is currently exhibiting challenged fundamentals, marked by a significant swing from profitability in 2024 to substantial net losses in 2025. Margins have compressed sharply, cash generation has weakened, and recent earnings have consistently fallen short of expectations. While the company retains scale and strategic assets, near-term financial headwinds and sector volatility dominate the outlook.

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Dow Inc. currently shows a challenging fundamental picture marked by declining earnings, negative net margins, and weakening returns on equity and assets, reflecting operational and sectoral pressures. Valuation multiples are mixed with some suggesting undervaluation relative to sector norms, but earnings volatility and negative profitability metrics contribute to the cautious analyst consensus. Market sentiment is neutral to slightly negative due to demand softness and regulatory issues, while recent price targets hover around the current price level, indicating limited upside in the near term.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

-9.23

TTM

Price to Sales

0.61

TTM

Price to Book

1.51

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

32.77

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.00

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings-2.7265.81-5.58-20.10-133.2244.8221.0919.89
Price to Sales1.781.641.842.372.713.533.393.81
Price to Book1.050.931.081.471.632.102.022.23
Enterprise Value to EBITDA-52.4532.01119.2571.5538.2342.3134.7240.31
Enterprise Value to Revenue3.443.143.393.944.204.914.715.11

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Sentiment around Dow Inc. (DOW) is predominantly cautious with a consensus hold rating among analysts. News coverage highlights geopolitical tensions, inflation worries linked to rising oil prices, and a mixed sector performance influencing market sentiment. Retail investor mood is similarly divided, balancing pockets of optimism against broader concerns around global uncertainties.

Analyst Recommendations

No analyst recommendations available.

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
HIGH

Dow Inc. faces a challenging risk environment marked by weak demand, margin pressure, and substantial restructuring costs, which have led to earnings losses and dividend cuts. The company carries elevated leverage and regulatory scrutiny, contributing to financial distress indicators. Although liquidity metrics are stable, the medium-term outlook is cautious given operational headwinds and sector volatility.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.97

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.25

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

1.22

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.33

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.971.941.691.541.611.661.751.80
Quick Ratio1.251.281.050.900.981.041.121.18
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity1.221.121.051.071.020.980.970.96
Debt-to-Assets0.330.320.310.310.310.300.300.30

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.97(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 1.25(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 1.22(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.33(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about DOW

AI Answers: Common Questions About DOW

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Dow Inc.

Dow is not a compelling buy right now: while technicals are bullish, the stock trades at a negative P/E (-8.31), with revenues down 7% YoY and margins below 6%. Valuation is fair (near book value), but persistent losses and high debt make the risk/reward unattractive until fundamentals improve.

If you already own DOW, there is no urgent reason to sell unless your risk tolerance is low, as the technical trend is supportive. However, with deteriorating fundamentals and high leverage, consider reducing exposure or setting stop-losses if the price fails to break above $31.00 or if earnings disappoint further.

The biggest risks are ongoing negative earnings (-$3.69 EPS in 2025), high leverage (debt-to-equity >1.2), negative interest coverage, and sector headwinds from weak demand and regulatory pressures. Dividend cuts and restructuring costs further heighten downside risk.

Key resistance is at $31.00, with a longer-term technical target at the 52-week high of $38.69 if a breakout occurs. Analyst price targets are near the current price, implying limited upside and possible modest downside risk.

Dow is fairly valued: P/E is negative due to losses, P/S and price-to-book are low, and EV/EBITDA is volatile. The market is discounting future growth and pricing in operational risk, so there is no clear undervaluation or premium.

Fundamentals are weak: revenues fell from $42.96B to $39.97B in 2025, gross margins dropped below 6%, and net income turned sharply negative. High leverage and poor earnings quality further undermine the investment case.

Technically, DOW is in a bullish uptrend with a golden cross (50-day SMA $28.10 above 200-day SMA $25.75) and price above both, but momentum is neutral (RSI 54, ADX <20), suggesting consolidation. Watch for a breakout above $31.00 for renewed upside.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (look for signs of margin or revenue stabilization), progress on restructuring/cost-cutting, and macro events such as stabilization in oil/commodity prices or resolution of geopolitical tensions.

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