DOW AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Dow Inc. (DOW)

$39.01+0.97 (+2.55%) today

Open
$38.50
High
$39.12
Low
$38.25
Volume
10.88M
Mkt Cap
$27.99B
52W High
$42.74
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
DOWDow Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
MIXED
Overall
Summary

Dow Inc. presents a complex investment case: while technicals are bullish and liquidity is solid, fundamentals and valuation remain challenged by negative earnings, margin compression, and high leverage. Sentiment and analyst consensus are cautious, reflecting macro and sector headwinds. Investors should weigh short-term technical momentum against high long-term risks and weak profitability.

By Timeframe
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Short
HOLD
Medium
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Long
Agent Signals
122
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Dow Inc. (DOW) is experiencing significant earnings pressure with negative net income for the most recent fiscal year and continued margin compression, reflecting challenges in the chemicals sector. Revenue growth has turned negative year-over-year, and profitability metrics have deteriorated sharply including several consecutive quarters of losses. While there are some operational strengths and a history of meeting or slightly exceeding earnings estimates, financial headwinds and market volatility pose notable risks.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025-$3.5B$0$3.5B$7.0B$10.5BRevenue & Net Income ($)-18%-12%-6%0%6%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$9.46B

-9.08% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

-$1.54B

-2811.32% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

-16.31%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

-9.08%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-2811.32%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-10.91%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-2604.40%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-3.81%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue9.5B10.0B10.1B10.4B10.4B10.9B10.9B10.8B
Revenue Growth YoY-9.08%-8.33%-7.43%-3.10%-2.03%+1.39%-4.42%-9.16%
Net Income-1.5B62.0M-835.0M-307.0M-53.0M214.0M439.0M516.0M
Net Income Growth YoY-2811.32%-71.03%-290.21%-159.50%+49.52%-29.14%-9.48%+654.84%
EPS-$2.15$0.08-$1.18-$0.44-$0.08$0.30$0.62$0.73
EPS Growth YoY-2604.40%-71.90%-290.32%-160.27%+47.00%-30.23%-8.82%+661.54%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

5.99%

TTM

Operating Margin

0.65%

TTM

Net Margin

-6.56%

TTM

Return on Equity

-15.53%

TTM

Return on Assets

-5.34%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin5.79%6.91%5.38%6.75%8.43%8.96%11.38%12.54%
Operating Margin-11.04%1.59%0.09%1.32%3.09%3.41%6.01%6.54%
Net Margin-16.31%0.62%-8.26%-2.94%-0.51%1.97%4.02%4.79%
Return on Equity (ROE)-9.64%0.35%-4.85%-1.83%-0.31%1.17%2.40%2.80%
Return on Assets (ROA)-3.14%0.12%-1.72%-0.65%-0.11%0.44%0.91%1.07%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

DOW is currently in a strong uptrend supported by a golden cross with its price well above the 50, 150, and 200-day SMAs. RSI is neutral, indicating balanced momentum without overbought or oversold extremes. The technical setup shows institutional accumulation typical of an advancing phase, suggesting robust bullishness.

RSI
Hold
Neutral55

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+44.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend29

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$39.01
50 SMA
$34.62
150 SMA
$27.42
200 SMA
$26.94
52W High
$42.74
52W Low
$20.40

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
55Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Dow Inc. (DOW) is experiencing significant earnings pressure with negative net income for the most recent fiscal year and continued margin compression, reflecting challenges in the chemicals sector. Revenue growth has turned negative year-over-year, and profitability metrics have deteriorated sharply including several consecutive quarters of losses. While there are some operational strengths and a history of meeting or slightly exceeding earnings estimates, financial headwinds and market volatility pose notable risks.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$-0.34

Estimated

$-0.46

Surprise

+$0.12

Surprise %

+26.66%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$9.46B

Estimated

$9.46B

Surprise

-$2.13M

Surprise %

-0.02%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$-0.34$-0.19$-0.42$0.02$-0.08$0.47$0.68$0.56
EPS (Estimated)$-0.46$-0.31$-0.17$-0.01$0.35$0.46$0.72$0.45
EPS Surprise+$0.12+$0.12-$0.25+$0.03-$0.43+$0.01-$0.04+$0.11
% Diff+26.7%+38.4%-142.1%+240.4%-121.5%+2.8%-5.6%+24.4%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$9.46B$9.97B$10.1B$10.43B$10.41B$10.88B$10.92B$10.77B
Revenue (Estimated)$9.46B$10.22B$10.24B$10.24B$10.51B$10.65B$11.01B$10.71B
Revenue Surprise-$2.13M-$247.26M-$139.72M+$190.41M-$106.01M+$224.33M-$96.38M+$50.39M
% Diff-0.0%-2.4%-1.4%+1.9%-1.0%+2.1%-0.9%+0.5%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Dow Inc. is currently navigating financial headwinds with a recent loss-driven earnings profile and multiple valuation challenges reflecting its reduced profitability. Despite a modest upside potential indicated by some bullish analysts, the overall consensus remains cautious, highlighting ongoing operational and market risks that weigh on the stock's near-term outlook.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

-10.68

TTM

Price to Sales

0.70

TTM

Price to Book

1.75

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

35.88

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.10

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings-2.7265.81-5.58-20.10-133.2244.8221.0919.89
Price to Sales1.781.641.842.372.713.533.393.81
Price to Book1.050.931.081.471.632.102.022.23
Enterprise Value to EBITDA-52.4532.01119.2571.5538.2342.3134.7240.31
Enterprise Value to Revenue3.443.143.393.944.204.914.715.11

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Dow Inc. (DOW) sentiment currently reflects a mixed and cautious tone amid persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly around the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. Analyst coverage is mostly neutral with a tilt toward hold recommendations, while retail investors show a divided mood driven by economic and geopolitical concerns. News coverage remains steady, emphasizing inflation risks and cautious optimism around Middle East developments, which together temper bullish enthusiasm but support a moderate outlook.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.3 / 5.0
Based on 19 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
0
Hold
12
Buy
4
Strong Buy
2

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
HIGH

Dow Inc. is navigating a challenging environment marked by cyclical demand pressures, restructuring efforts, and increased regulatory scrutiny, especially related to environmental compliance and product safety. While it maintains a solid liquidity position, elevated leverage and negative interest coverage ratios highlight financial stress risks. Market sentiment remains cautious with a hold consensus reflecting concerns over industry cyclicality and execution risks in the company's transformation plan.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.97

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.25

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

1.22

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.33

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.971.941.691.541.611.661.751.80
Quick Ratio1.251.281.050.900.981.041.121.18
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity1.221.121.051.071.020.980.970.96
Debt-to-Assets0.330.320.310.310.310.300.300.30

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.97(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 1.25(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 1.22(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.33(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about DOW

AI Answers: Common Questions About DOW

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Dow Inc.

Dow is not a clear buy at current levels for most investors: while technicals are strong and the price is $39.01 (well above key moving averages), the stock trades with a negative P/E (-10.54), shrinking margins, and persistent losses. Only short-term traders may benefit from the current momentum, but value and growth investors should be cautious.

If you are a long-term holder concerned about fundamentals, consider reducing exposure, as the company's negative earnings and high leverage increase risk. However, short-term traders may choose to hold or add, given the bullish technical setup and potential for a breakout toward $42.74.

The biggest risks are sustained negative net income (EPS -$3.69 in FY2025), high leverage (debt/equity >1.2), and negative interest coverage, all of which threaten dividend safety and long-term solvency. Regulatory and restructuring risks also loom large, especially with ongoing environmental compliance costs.

Technical resistance is at $42.74 (52-week high), with potential extension to $45.00 if momentum continues; downside support lies at $34.62 and $27.42. Analyst upside targets reach as high as $50 in a best-case recovery, but fundamental headwinds make such moves uncertain.

Dow is currently overvalued: negative P/E (-10.54), elevated EV/EBITDA, and depressed profitability metrics contrast with a low price-to-sales ratio, reflecting market skepticism about a turnaround. The stock trades at a premium on earnings risk but a discount on sales, which does not offset the weak earnings outlook.

Fundamentals are weak: revenue fell 7% YoY, gross margin dropped from 10% to 6%, and net margin is now -6.6%. Liquidity is solid (current ratio ~2.0), but negative ROE/ROA and ongoing losses undermine long-term strength.

Technical analysis is bullish: price is above all major SMAs, a golden cross is active, RSI is neutral (55.14), and ADX confirms a strong trend. The next resistance is $42.74, with support at $34.62 and $27.42; momentum favors further upside in the short term.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (which could signal a turnaround or further deterioration), progress on restructuring and cost savings, and macro events such as stabilization in inflation or geopolitical tensions. Watch for sector demand trends and regulatory developments impacting chemicals.

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