FAST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Fastenal Company (FAST)
Fundamentals
Fastenal Company demonstrates strong fundamental health with steady revenue growth, robust margins, and stable earnings performance. While the company operates in a competitive industry, its consistent profitability and efficient cost management support a positive fundamental outlook. However, the relatively high current valuation and mature growth rate warrant a more measured investment stance.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
12.37% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
13.76% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2B | 2.0B | 2.1B | 2.1B | 2.0B | 1.8B | 1.9B | 1.9B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +12.37% | +11.12% | +11.68% | +8.56% | +3.39% | +3.75% | +3.48% | +1.76% |
| Net Income | 339.8M | 294.1M | 335.5M | 330.3M | 298.7M | 262.1M | 298.1M | 292.7M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +13.76% | +12.21% | +12.55% | +12.85% | +0.34% | -1.61% | +0.88% | -1.78% |
| EPS | $0.30 | $0.26 | $0.29 | $0.29 | $0.26 | $0.23 | $0.26 | $0.26 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +15.38% | +13.04% | +11.54% | +11.54% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
FAST is currently in a topping phase with mixed technical signals. While the stock remains above key moving averages indicating a bullish structure, momentum is neutral and ADX points to a weak trend, suggesting potential consolidation or range-bound action ahead. Traders should watch for breakdowns below critical support levels as volatility increases.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Range-bound market
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Fastenal Company demonstrates strong fundamental health with steady revenue growth, robust margins, and stable earnings performance. While the company operates in a competitive industry, its consistent profitability and efficient cost management support a positive fundamental outlook. However, the relatively high current valuation and mature growth rate warrant a more measured investment stance.
Latest Earnings
Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.30
Estimated
$0.30
Surprise
+$0.00
Surprise %
+0.44%
Revenue
Actual
$2.2B
Estimated
$2.2B
Surprise
+$5.21M
Surprise %
+0.24%
Historical Earnings
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.30 | $0.26 | $0.29 | $0.29 | $0.26 | $0.23 | $0.26 | $0.25 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.30 | $0.26 | $0.30 | $0.28 | $0.26 | $0.48 | $0.51 | $0.51 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.00 | +$0.00 | -$0.01 | +$0.01 | +$0.00 | -$0.25 | -$0.25 | -$0.26 |
| % Diff | +0.4% | +0.3% | -2.4% | +2.7% | +0.0% | -52.1% | -49.3% | -50.9% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $2.2B | $2.03B | $2.13B | $2.08B | $1.96B | $1.82B | $1.91B | $1.92B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $2.2B | $2.04B | $2.13B | $2.07B | $1.95B | $1.84B | $1.9B | $1.91B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$5.21M | -$10.82M | +$1.8M | +$5.94M | +$8.56M | -$17.52M | +$7.06M | +$1.56M |
| % Diff | +0.2% | -0.5% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -1.0% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
Valuation
Fastenal Company (FAST) is currently trading at a premium valuation compared to its industry peers, supported by consistent revenue and earnings growth driven by market share expansion and digital initiatives. While the stock's elevated multiples reflect strong operating efficiencies and robust profitability, recent analyst sentiment is mixed, indicating a cautious outlook despite solid fundamentals. The valuation suggests limited upside potential from current levels, balancing growth prospects against premium pricing risks.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 38.67 | 38.59 | 42.28 | 36.21 | 37.29 | 39.09 | 34.34 | 29.86 |
| Price to Sales | 24.20 | 22.72 | 26.39 | 23.21 | 22.70 | 22.59 | 21.43 | 18.60 |
| Price to Book | 13.35 | 11.68 | 14.45 | 12.68 | 12.05 | 11.40 | 11.38 | 10.20 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 108.54 | 107.52 | 116.01 | 100.43 | 101.81 | 106.18 | 94.92 | 83.12 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 24.26 | 22.80 | 26.50 | 23.36 | 22.84 | 22.72 | 21.56 | 18.74 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Fastenal (FAST) currently exhibits mixed to cautiously optimistic market sentiment, supported by recent solid earnings growth and strategic expansions, but tempered by concerns about sector exposure and margin pressures. Analyst consensus ranges from Hold to Moderate Buy, with price targets suggesting modest upside potential. Retail and institutional interest remains steady, though some investors weigh Fastenal against more aggressive growth sectors.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Fastenal Company demonstrates very strong liquidity and a conservatively leveraged balance sheet, signaling financial stability in the short and long term. However, elevated valuations, margin pressures, and macroeconomic challenges introduce moderate risks that could affect near-term earnings momentum. Investors face a balanced risk profile typical of industrial distributors with a solid operational base but exposed to cyclical and execution risks.
Liquidity & Solvency
Frequently Asked Questions about FAST
AI Answers: Common Questions About FAST
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Fastenal Company
FAST is not a compelling buy at current levels given its P/E of 40.61 and EV/EBITDA far above industry norms, despite strong fundamentals and recent earnings growth. The stock trades at $45.89, close to resistance and well above key support, with limited near-term upside unless growth accelerates further. Consider waiting for a pullback or clearer technical breakout.
There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own FAST, as the company remains fundamentally strong and financially stable. However, with technicals showing a topping phase and valuation stretched, trimming or rebalancing may be prudent if you are overweight or seeking higher-growth opportunities.
Key risks include valuation compression (P/E 40.61, EV/EBITDA well above peers), margin pressure from rising input and labor costs, and exposure to cyclical industrial demand. Sentinel notes a moderate overall risk profile, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and current ratio above 4.3 providing financial cushion, but macroeconomic headwinds could impact earnings momentum.
Technical resistance sits at $46.08 and the 52-week high of $50.63, with support at $44.39 (200 SMA). Analyst price targets cluster around $46-$52, suggesting modest upside from current levels. Downside risk increases if the stock breaks below $44.39.
FAST is overvalued relative to peers, with a P/E of 40.61, high P/S, and an extremely elevated EV/EBITDA ratio. While this premium is justified by operational excellence and growth, it leaves little margin for error and limits near-term upside.
FAST is fundamentally strong, with consistent mid-to-high single-digit revenue and earnings growth, gross margins around 45%, operating margins of 20-21%, and a conservatively managed balance sheet (current ratio 4.3+, debt/equity 0.11). Growth is organic and recurring, with high earnings quality.
Technically, FAST is above all key moving averages with a golden cross, but momentum is neutral (RSI 53, ADX <20), and the stock is in a topping phase with no clear breakout or breakdown. Key support is at $44.39 and resistance at $46.08/$50.63; traders should wait for a decisive move.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, continued expansion of digital managed inventory and vending solutions, and macroeconomic developments affecting industrial demand. Watch for new customer wins, operational expansion (e.g., new logistics centers), and updates on cost management.
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