FAST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Fastenal Company (FAST)
Fastenal (FAST) is a fundamentally strong industrial distributor with premium valuation and robust financial health, but faces near-term technical weakness and mixed sentiment due to cost pressures and macro uncertainty. While long-term prospects remain stable, the current setup suggests limited immediate upside, making it best suited for patient investors or those seeking dividend stability rather than aggressive growth.
Fundamentals
Fastenal Company maintains a robust market position with strong fundamentals, benefiting from its scale and operational efficiency in the industrial distribution sector. However, valuation remains elevated, and recent financial data is needed to assess the current growth and margin trajectory, though historically Fastenal has demonstrated resilient revenue and stable profitability.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
12.37% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
13.76% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2B | 2.0B | 2.1B | 2.1B | 2.0B | 1.8B | 1.9B | 1.9B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +12.37% | +11.12% | +11.68% | +8.56% | +3.39% | +3.75% | +3.48% | +1.76% |
| Net Income | 339.8M | 294.1M | 335.5M | 330.3M | 298.7M | 262.1M | 298.1M | 292.7M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +13.76% | +12.21% | +12.55% | +12.85% | +0.34% | -1.61% | +0.88% | -1.78% |
| EPS | $0.30 | $0.26 | $0.29 | $0.29 | $0.26 | $0.23 | $0.26 | $0.26 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +15.38% | +13.04% | +11.54% | +11.54% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 44.64% | 44.33% | 45.27% | 45.32% | 45.11% | 44.85% | 44.95% | 45.06% |
| Operating Margin | 20.33% | 18.96% | 20.70% | 20.96% | 20.10% | 18.90% | 20.32% | 20.19% |
| Net Margin | 15.43% | 14.51% | 15.73% | 15.88% | 15.24% | 14.37% | 15.61% | 15.28% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 8.52% | 7.46% | 8.61% | 8.68% | 8.09% | 7.25% | 8.29% | 8.37% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 6.52% | 5.82% | 6.56% | 6.58% | 6.13% | 5.58% | 6.29% | 6.36% |
Technical Analysis
FAST is currently in a topping phase with price weaker than key moving averages and showing bearish short-term signals. Momentum is neutral to slightly negative, reflecting indecision and potential distribution. The technical outlook suggests caution as the stock tests support levels with increasing volatility.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Range-bound market
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Fastenal Company maintains a robust market position with strong fundamentals, benefiting from its scale and operational efficiency in the industrial distribution sector. However, valuation remains elevated, and recent financial data is needed to assess the current growth and margin trajectory, though historically Fastenal has demonstrated resilient revenue and stable profitability.
Latest Earnings
Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.30
Estimated
$0.30
Surprise
+$0.00
Surprise %
+0.44%
Revenue
Actual
$2.2B
Estimated
$2.2B
Surprise
+$5.21M
Surprise %
+0.24%
Historical Earnings
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.30 | $0.26 | $0.29 | $0.29 | $0.26 | $0.23 | $0.26 | $0.25 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.30 | $0.26 | $0.30 | $0.28 | $0.26 | $0.48 | $0.51 | $0.51 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.00 | +$0.00 | -$0.01 | +$0.01 | +$0.00 | -$0.25 | -$0.25 | -$0.26 |
| % Diff | +0.4% | +0.3% | -2.4% | +2.7% | +0.0% | -52.1% | -49.3% | -50.9% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $2.2B | $2.03B | $2.13B | $2.08B | $1.96B | $1.82B | $1.91B | $1.92B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $2.2B | $2.04B | $2.13B | $2.07B | $1.95B | $1.84B | $1.9B | $1.91B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$5.21M | -$10.82M | +$1.8M | +$5.94M | +$8.56M | -$17.52M | +$7.06M | +$1.56M |
| % Diff | +0.2% | -0.5% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -1.0% | +0.4% | +0.1% |
Valuation
Fastenal Company (FAST) currently trades at a premium valuation with strong growth fundamentals and solid financial health, supported by consistent revenue and earnings growth as well as strong margins. While recent market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with a consensus "Hold" rating, valuation multiples are high relative to industry peers, reflecting both growth optimism and some margin pressure concerns.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 39.20 | 39.16 | 41.95 | 36.55 | 37.23 | 39.32 | 34.34 | 30.44 |
| Price to Sales | 24.20 | 22.72 | 26.39 | 23.21 | 22.70 | 22.59 | 21.43 | 18.60 |
| Price to Book | 13.35 | 11.68 | 14.45 | 12.68 | 12.05 | 11.40 | 11.38 | 10.20 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 119.33 | 120.31 | 116.01 | 100.43 | 101.81 | 106.51 | 94.92 | 83.12 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 24.26 | 22.80 | 26.50 | 23.36 | 22.84 | 22.72 | 21.56 | 18.74 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Fastenal Company (FAST) exhibits a generally constructive investor sentiment supported by solid Q1 FY2026 financial results and strategic logistics expansion. However, concerns about tariff-driven cost pressures and some insider selling have moderated enthusiasm, leading to a cautious overall stance with mixed analyst opinions.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Fastenal Company exhibits a robust financial position with strong liquidity and low leverage, supported by consistent revenue growth and stable profitability despite margin pressures from tariffs. Market sentiment remains mixed to neutral with a consensus "Hold" rating amid concerns over cost pressures and margin erosion, but upside potential exists given the stable cash flow and dividend track record. Investors should balance the company's solid fundamentals against the macroeconomic risks and sector-specific headwinds in assessing risk exposure.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 4.39 | 4.85 | 4.26 | 4.22 | 4.28 | 4.67 | 4.40 | 4.39 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.34 | 2.41 | 2.19 | 2.12 | 2.14 | 2.28 | 2.29 | 2.29 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 4.39(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 2.34(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.11(Low)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.09(Low)
The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.
Frequently Asked Questions about FAST
AI Answers: Common Questions About FAST
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Fastenal Company
FAST is not a compelling buy at current levels: it trades at a P/E of 39.09, near the upper end of its historical range and well above sector averages, with price at $44.17 below both 50 and 200 SMAs. While fundamentals are strong, the premium valuation and weak technicals suggest waiting for a pullback or clearer catalyst.
There is no urgent reason to sell unless your thesis has changed or you expect a sector downturn; fundamentals remain robust and the balance sheet is strong. However, with technicals weak and upside limited, trimming or rebalancing may be prudent if you are overweight or risk-averse.
The biggest risks are margin compression from tariffs and cost inflation, with debt-to-equity at a conservative 0.11 and current ratio above 4. Macro sensitivity to industrial cycles and potential valuation compression if growth slows are also notable. Operational risk is moderate, but sector headwinds could pressure the stock.
Analyst price targets range from $38.00 to $88.00, with a median of $51.84, implying modest upside. Technically, resistance is at $45.58 (50 SMA) and $44.86 (200 SMA), with support at $43.76 (150 SMA) and a major floor at $38.97 (52-week low).
FAST is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, with a P/E of 39.09 and high EV/EBITDA, both above peer averages. The premium is justified by strong growth and margins, but leaves little margin for error if growth slows or costs rise.
Fundamentally, FAST is very strong: high and stable margins, consistent mid-single-digit revenue growth, high ROE/ROA, and a conservative balance sheet with low leverage and strong liquidity. Earnings quality is high, supported by recurring revenue and prudent capital allocation.
Technically, FAST is in a topping phase with price below both 50 and 200 SMAs, RSI at 44 (neutral), and weak trend strength (ADX < 20). No bullish patterns are present; risk of further downside or range-bound action is elevated.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (potential for margin recovery), progress on logistics center expansion, and any easing of tariff/cost pressures. Watch for shifts in industrial demand and updates on vending/logistics initiatives.
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