FAST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Fastenal Company (FAST)

$47.30+0.87 (+1.87%) today

Open
$47.80
High
$48.42
Low
$46.99
Volume
11.19M
Mkt Cap
$54.31B
52W High
$50.63
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
FASTFastenal Company
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Fastenal (FAST) is a fundamentally strong, cash-generative industrial distributor with sector-leading margins and a robust balance sheet, but its current valuation is elevated and technicals suggest consolidation. While long-term prospects remain solid, near-term upside appears limited, making FAST best suited for patient investors awaiting a better entry point or a clear catalyst.

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Medium
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Agent Signals
41
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Fastenal (FAST) demonstrates a resilient financial profile with stable revenue growth, healthy margins, and consistent earnings performance. While growth is not hyper-accelerated, the company's operating discipline and steady profitability underpin reliable value for long-term investors.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$550.0M$1.1B$1.6B$2.2BRevenue & Net Income ($)14%14.5%15%15.5%16%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$2.03B

11.12% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$294.10M

12.21% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

14.51%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

11.12%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

12.21%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

10.97%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

13.04%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

8.90%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue2.0B2.1B2.1B2.0B1.8B1.9B1.9B1.9B
Revenue Growth YoY+11.12%+11.68%+8.56%+3.39%+3.75%+3.48%+1.76%+1.94%
Net Income294.1M335.5M330.3M298.7M262.1M298.1M292.7M297.7M
Net Income Growth YoY+12.21%+12.55%+12.85%+0.34%-1.61%+0.88%-1.78%+0.88%
EPS$0.26$0.29$0.29$0.26$0.23$0.26$0.26$0.26
EPS Growth YoY+13.04%+11.54%+11.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Profitability Metrics

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Due to a temporary data retrieval issue, detailed technical indicator values for FAST are unavailable. However, given the current price near its 52-week high and moderate volume, the stock shows signs of consolidation in an overall bullish context seen from prior trends. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely for breakout opportunities.

RSI
Hold
Neutral61

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+7.0% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend14

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Hold
Death Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$47.30
50 SMA
$44.16
150 SMA
$44.59
200 SMA
$44.21
52W High
$50.63
52W Low
$35.31

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
61Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Fastenal (FAST) demonstrates a resilient financial profile with stable revenue growth, healthy margins, and consistent earnings performance. While growth is not hyper-accelerated, the company's operating discipline and steady profitability underpin reliable value for long-term investors.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.26

Estimated

$0.26

Surprise

+$0.00

Surprise %

+0.35%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$2.03B

Estimated

$2.04B

Surprise

-$10.81M

Surprise %

-0.53%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.26$0.29$0.29$0.26$0.23$0.26$0.25$0.26
EPS (Estimated)$0.26$0.30$0.28$0.26$0.48$0.51$0.51$0.53
EPS Surprise+$0.00-$0.01+$0.01+$0.00-$0.25-$0.25-$0.26-$0.27
% Diff+0.3%-2.4%+2.7%+0.0%-52.1%-49.3%-50.9%-50.9%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$2.03B$2.13B$2.08B$1.96B$1.82B$1.91B$1.92B$1.9B
Revenue (Estimated)$2.04B$2.13B$2.07B$1.95B$1.84B$1.9B$1.91B$1.91B
Revenue Surprise-$10.81M+$1.8M+$5.94M+$8.56M-$17.52M+$7.06M+$1.56M-$19.12M
% Diff-0.5%+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%-1.0%+0.4%+0.1%-1.0%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Fastenal (FAST) currently trades at elevated valuation multiples compared to its sector peers, reflecting strong growth prospects and robust financial performance. While revenue and earnings have shown consistent growth and the company maintains healthy balance sheet metrics, the premium valuation is somewhat tempered by mixed analyst sentiment leaning towards a hold. Technical indicators signal a moderate bullish trend, supported by solid fundamentals, but the valuation suggests limited near-term upside.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

43.14

TTM

Price to Sales

6.62

TTM

Price to Book

13.77

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

30.35

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

6.64

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings39.1641.9536.5537.2339.3234.3430.4436.83
Price to Sales22.7226.3923.2122.7022.5921.4318.6023.14
Price to Book11.6814.4512.6812.0511.4011.3810.2012.79
Enterprise Value to EBITDA120.31116.01100.43101.81106.5194.9283.12101.45
Enterprise Value to Revenue22.8026.5023.3622.8422.7221.5618.7423.27

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
NEUTRAL

The overall market sentiment for Fastenal (FAST) is neutral to mildly positive, reflecting a balanced view among analysts and investors. While the stock shows resilience in sales growth and free cash flow improvements, concerns about margin pressures and demand softness temper enthusiasm. Retail investor sentiment is generally optimistic toward the broader market but lacks specific strong engagement with FAST stock at the moment.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
2.8 / 5.0
Based on 19 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
3
Sell
2
Hold
9
Buy
5
Strong Buy
0

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Fastenal Company (FAST) exhibits a very strong liquidity and conservative solvency profile supported by substantial cash flow generation and low leverage. While the company benefits from robust current and quick ratios signaling excellent short-term financial flexibility, it faces moderate risks related primarily to industrial sector cyclical sensitivity, margin pressure, and valuation limitations. Despite these challenges, its competitive positioning and operational discipline support a generally stable investment risk profile relative to industry peers.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

4.85

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

2.41

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.11

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.09

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio4.854.264.224.284.674.404.394.83
Quick Ratio2.412.192.122.142.282.292.292.49
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.110.130.140.130.130.150.150.14
Debt-to-Assets0.090.100.110.100.100.110.110.11

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 4.85(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 2.41(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.11(Low)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.09(Low)

The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.

Frequently Asked Questions about FAST

AI Answers: Common Questions About FAST

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Fastenal Company

FAST is not a compelling buy right now due to its elevated P/E (42.26) and EV/EBITDA multiples, which are well above sector averages. While the company is fundamentally strong with steady revenue and margin performance, the current price ($46.06) already reflects high investor expectations. Prospective buyers should wait for a pullback or a clear growth catalyst.

There is no urgent reason to sell FAST unless your thesis has changed or you are concerned about valuation risk; fundamentals remain strong and technicals do not indicate a breakdown. However, if you are seeking higher near-term returns or are uncomfortable with the premium valuation, trimming may be justified.

The biggest risks are cyclical exposure to industrial and construction spending, margin pressures from wage and freight costs, and a high valuation that limits margin of safety. Sentinel notes a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and current ratio above 4.8, so financial risk is low, but macroeconomic slowdowns or cost inflation could impact performance.

Key resistance is near the 52-week high of $50.63, with support at $46.00 and a stronger floor at $35.30. Analyst targets are generally close to current prices, reflecting limited upside unless new catalysts emerge.

FAST is overvalued relative to peers, trading at a P/E of 42.26 and a high EV/EBITDA, both above sector norms. This premium is only justified if the company maintains its superior growth and margin profile, but leaves the stock vulnerable to any negative surprises.

FAST is fundamentally strong, with gross margins of 44-46%, ROE around 25%, and consistent organic revenue growth (8.7% YoY). The balance sheet is robust with low leverage and high liquidity, supporting long-term stability.

Technical analysis is neutral: the stock is consolidating near its 52-week high with below-average volume, and no clear breakout or breakdown is evident. Key levels to watch are $46.00 for support and $50.63 for resistance.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, potential acceleration in industrial demand, and further expansion of digital and onsite inventory solutions. Macro events affecting manufacturing and construction cycles could also shift sentiment and valuation.

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