FAST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

Fastenal Company (FAST)

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Fastenal Company demonstrates strong fundamental health with steady revenue growth, robust margins, and stable earnings performance. While the company operates in a competitive industry, its consistent profitability and efficient cost management support a positive fundamental outlook. However, the relatively high current valuation and mature growth rate warrant a more measured investment stance.

Financial Highlights

Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026$0$600.0M$1.2B$1.8B$2.4BRevenue & Net Income ($)14.4%14.8%15.2%15.6%16%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$2.20B

12.37% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Income

$339.80M

13.76% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Margin

15.43%

Q1 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

12.37%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

13.76%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

12.25%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

EPS Growth YoY

15.38%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

7.99%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Revenue2.2B2.0B2.1B2.1B2.0B1.8B1.9B1.9B
Revenue Growth YoY+12.37%+11.12%+11.68%+8.56%+3.39%+3.75%+3.48%+1.76%
Net Income339.8M294.1M335.5M330.3M298.7M262.1M298.1M292.7M
Net Income Growth YoY+13.76%+12.21%+12.55%+12.85%+0.34%-1.61%+0.88%-1.78%
EPS$0.30$0.26$0.29$0.29$0.26$0.23$0.26$0.26
EPS Growth YoY+15.38%+13.04%+11.54%+11.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Profitability Metrics

No profitability metrics available

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

FAST is currently in a topping phase with mixed technical signals. While the stock remains above key moving averages indicating a bullish structure, momentum is neutral and ADX points to a weak trend, suggesting potential consolidation or range-bound action ahead. Traders should watch for breakdowns below critical support levels as volatility increases.

RSI
Hold
Neutral51

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+2.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend16

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$45.60
50 SMA
$44.95
150 SMA
$44.17
200 SMA
$44.35
52W High
$50.63
52W Low
$38.97

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
51Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Fastenal Company demonstrates strong fundamental health with steady revenue growth, robust margins, and stable earnings performance. While the company operates in a competitive industry, its consistent profitability and efficient cost management support a positive fundamental outlook. However, the relatively high current valuation and mature growth rate warrant a more measured investment stance.

Latest Earnings

Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.30

Estimated

$0.30

Surprise

+$0.00

Surprise %

+0.44%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$2.2B

Estimated

$2.2B

Surprise

+$5.21M

Surprise %

+0.24%

Historical Earnings

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.30$0.26$0.29$0.29$0.26$0.23$0.26$0.25
EPS (Estimated)$0.30$0.26$0.30$0.28$0.26$0.48$0.51$0.51
EPS Surprise+$0.00+$0.00-$0.01+$0.01+$0.00-$0.25-$0.25-$0.26
% Diff+0.4%+0.3%-2.4%+2.7%+0.0%-52.1%-49.3%-50.9%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$2.2B$2.03B$2.13B$2.08B$1.96B$1.82B$1.91B$1.92B
Revenue (Estimated)$2.2B$2.04B$2.13B$2.07B$1.95B$1.84B$1.9B$1.91B
Revenue Surprise+$5.21M-$10.82M+$1.8M+$5.94M+$8.56M-$17.52M+$7.06M+$1.56M
% Diff+0.2%-0.5%+0.1%+0.3%+0.4%-1.0%+0.4%+0.1%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Fastenal Company (FAST) is currently trading at a premium valuation compared to its industry peers, supported by consistent revenue and earnings growth driven by market share expansion and digital initiatives. While the stock's elevated multiples reflect strong operating efficiencies and robust profitability, recent analyst sentiment is mixed, indicating a cautious outlook despite solid fundamentals. The valuation suggests limited upside potential from current levels, balancing growth prospects against premium pricing risks.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

40.00

TTM

Price to Sales

6.20

TTM

Price to Book

13.12

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

27.72

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

6.22

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Price to Earnings38.6738.5942.2836.2137.2939.0934.3429.86
Price to Sales24.2022.7226.3923.2122.7022.5921.4318.60
Price to Book13.3511.6814.4512.6812.0511.4011.3810.20
Enterprise Value to EBITDA108.54107.52116.01100.43101.81106.1894.9283.12
Enterprise Value to Revenue24.2622.8026.5023.3622.8422.7221.5618.74

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Fastenal (FAST) currently exhibits mixed to cautiously optimistic market sentiment, supported by recent solid earnings growth and strategic expansions, but tempered by concerns about sector exposure and margin pressures. Analyst consensus ranges from Hold to Moderate Buy, with price targets suggesting modest upside potential. Retail and institutional interest remains steady, though some investors weigh Fastenal against more aggressive growth sectors.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Jun 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
2.8 / 5.0
Based on 17 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
3
Sell
2
Hold
7
Buy
5
Strong Buy
0

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Fastenal Company demonstrates very strong liquidity and a conservatively leveraged balance sheet, signaling financial stability in the short and long term. However, elevated valuations, margin pressures, and macroeconomic challenges introduce moderate risks that could affect near-term earnings momentum. Investors face a balanced risk profile typical of industrial distributors with a solid operational base but exposed to cyclical and execution risks.

Liquidity & Solvency

Frequently Asked Questions about FAST

AI Answers: Common Questions About FAST

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Fastenal Company

FAST is not a compelling buy at current levels given its P/E of 40.61 and EV/EBITDA far above industry norms, despite strong fundamentals and recent earnings growth. The stock trades at $45.89, close to resistance and well above key support, with limited near-term upside unless growth accelerates further. Consider waiting for a pullback or clearer technical breakout.

There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own FAST, as the company remains fundamentally strong and financially stable. However, with technicals showing a topping phase and valuation stretched, trimming or rebalancing may be prudent if you are overweight or seeking higher-growth opportunities.

Key risks include valuation compression (P/E 40.61, EV/EBITDA well above peers), margin pressure from rising input and labor costs, and exposure to cyclical industrial demand. Sentinel notes a moderate overall risk profile, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and current ratio above 4.3 providing financial cushion, but macroeconomic headwinds could impact earnings momentum.

Technical resistance sits at $46.08 and the 52-week high of $50.63, with support at $44.39 (200 SMA). Analyst price targets cluster around $46-$52, suggesting modest upside from current levels. Downside risk increases if the stock breaks below $44.39.

FAST is overvalued relative to peers, with a P/E of 40.61, high P/S, and an extremely elevated EV/EBITDA ratio. While this premium is justified by operational excellence and growth, it leaves little margin for error and limits near-term upside.

FAST is fundamentally strong, with consistent mid-to-high single-digit revenue and earnings growth, gross margins around 45%, operating margins of 20-21%, and a conservatively managed balance sheet (current ratio 4.3+, debt/equity 0.11). Growth is organic and recurring, with high earnings quality.

Technically, FAST is above all key moving averages with a golden cross, but momentum is neutral (RSI 53, ADX <20), and the stock is in a topping phase with no clear breakout or breakdown. Key support is at $44.39 and resistance at $46.08/$50.63; traders should wait for a decisive move.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, continued expansion of digital managed inventory and vending solutions, and macroeconomic developments affecting industrial demand. Watch for new customer wins, operational expansion (e.g., new logistics centers), and updates on cost management.

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