FCX AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) exhibits robust financial momentum supported by resurgent commodity prices and strong operational performance. Recent quarters have delivered consistent revenue and earnings beats, with notable margin expansion, reflecting an improved outlook for copper and gold demand. The company’s fundamentals remain resilient, albeit at a premium valuation and with sensitivity to commodity market fluctuations.

Financial Highlights

Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B$8.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)6%9%12%15%18%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$6.23B

12.24% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Income

$881.00M

154.62% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Margin

14.13%

Q1 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

12.24%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

154.62%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

12.24%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

EPS Growth YoY

154.17%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

7.86%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Revenue6.2B5.6B7.0B7.6B5.6B5.9B6.7B6.4B
Revenue Growth YoY+12.24%-4.20%+4.37%+19.03%-10.56%+1.40%+13.84%+7.38%
Net Income881.0M406.0M674.0M772.0M346.0M274.0M520.0M610.0M
Net Income Growth YoY+154.62%+48.18%+29.62%+26.56%-26.07%-29.20%+15.81%+80.47%
EPS$0.61$0.28$0.46$0.53$0.24$0.19$0.36$0.42
EPS Growth YoY+154.17%+47.37%+27.78%+26.19%-27.27%-29.60%+15.05%+78.19%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

26.55%

TTM

Operating Margin

34.28%

TTM

Net Margin

14.13%

TTM

Return on Equity

14.52%

TTM

Return on Assets

4.64%

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Gross Margin26.55%18.05%29.93%34.11%22.60%25.48%29.70%30.82%
Operating Margin34.28%14.40%28.06%32.08%19.64%23.08%27.65%28.45%
Net Margin14.13%7.21%9.67%10.18%6.23%4.66%7.78%9.58%
Return on Equity (ROE)4.52%2.15%3.61%4.24%1.96%1.56%2.96%3.50%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.50%0.70%1.19%1.37%0.62%0.50%0.94%1.12%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

FCX is currently in a strong uptrend, positioned in the Advancing Phase (Stage 2) with a bullish golden cross confirming upward momentum. The stock price is above all key moving averages (50, 150, 200 SMA) signaling institutional accumulation and a well-supported bullish structure. Momentum is moderate but building, supported by a neutral RSI and a developing ADX trend.

RSI
Hold
Neutral60

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+28.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend22

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$66.03
50 SMA
$61.19
150 SMA
$54.24
200 SMA
$51.28
52W High
$70.97
52W Low
$35.15

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
60Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) exhibits robust financial momentum supported by resurgent commodity prices and strong operational performance. Recent quarters have delivered consistent revenue and earnings beats, with notable margin expansion, reflecting an improved outlook for copper and gold demand. The company’s fundamentals remain resilient, albeit at a premium valuation and with sensitivity to commodity market fluctuations.

Latest Earnings

Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.57

Estimated

$0.47

Surprise

+$0.10

Surprise %

+22.19%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$6.23B

Estimated

$5.73B

Surprise

+$505.01M

Surprise %

+8.82%

Historical Earnings

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.57$0.47$0.50$0.54$0.24$0.31$0.38$0.46
EPS (Estimated)$0.47$0.29$0.42$0.45$0.24$0.36$0.36$0.38
EPS Surprise+$0.10+$0.18+$0.08+$0.09+$0.00-$0.05+$0.02+$0.08
% Diff+22.2%+64.8%+18.7%+20.1%+1.0%-13.9%+6.4%+21.1%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$6.23B$5.63B$6.97B$7.58B$5.73B$5.72B$6.79B$6.62B
Revenue (Estimated)$5.73B$5.29B$6.71B$7.19B$5.39B$5.84B$6.45B$6B
Revenue Surprise+$505.01M+$339M+$258.74M+$393.85M+$337.71M-$124.26M+$343.01M+$625.69M
% Diff+8.8%+6.4%+3.9%+5.5%+6.3%-2.1%+5.3%+10.4%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) currently trades at a premium valuation compared to its peer group and industry averages, reflecting strong operational performance and positive earnings growth. Analyst consensus mostly leans towards a moderate buy, supporting a modest upside potential from the current price amidst sector volatility and cyclical factors.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

34.89

TTM

Price to Sales

3.59

TTM

Price to Book

4.89

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

10.56

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

3.83

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Price to Earnings24.0945.1320.9920.2739.5049.9334.6628.49
Price to Sales13.6213.018.128.269.849.3110.7910.91
Price to Book4.353.883.033.443.093.114.113.99
Enterprise Value to EBITDA34.2871.3723.4321.5932.5832.7828.7527.69
Enterprise Value to Revenue14.6414.468.908.9510.7210.3011.3411.42

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

FCX exhibits mixed but cautiously optimistic sentiment driven by strong Q1 earnings beat and plans to ramp production at the Grasberg mine. While analysts and investors generally favor the stock, concerns over higher costs and delayed output temper enthusiasm. Overall, the outlook is positive with balanced risk awareness reflecting operational uncertainties.

Analyst Recommendations

As of May 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.0 / 5.0
Based on 22 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
3
Buy
13
Strong Buy
5

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) maintains a generally solid financial position supported by strong liquidity and moderate leverage despite significant operational challenges, notably the delayed full resumption of the Grasberg mine after a mudflow incident. Regulatory and geopolitical risks in Indonesia and U.S. environmental compliance issues add complexity, while robust demand from electrification and AI sectors underpin a favorable long-term copper market outlook. These factors combined create a moderate risk profile with upside linked to copper prices and operational recovery.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

2.39

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Quick Ratio

2.39

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Debt-to-Equity

0.53

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Debt-to-Assets

0.18

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio2.392.292.452.472.322.422.332.40
Quick Ratio2.391.051.191.211.131.181.301.34
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.530.610.500.510.530.550.550.54
Debt-to-Assets0.180.200.160.160.170.180.170.17

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 2.39(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 2.39(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.53(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.18(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about FCX

AI Answers: Common Questions About FCX

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

FCX is a good buy for medium- and long-term investors given its accelerating earnings (Q1 2026 net income up 154% YoY), expanding margins (gross margin 26.5%), and strong liquidity (current ratio >2.3). However, the stock trades at a premium P/E of 32.62, so entry is best on pullbacks or after clear technical confirmation.

Unless your thesis has changed or you expect a sharp drop in copper prices, there is no strong reason to sell now. Fundamentals remain robust, technicals are bullish above key moving averages, and the company continues to beat earnings estimates. Only consider trimming if you are risk-averse to valuation or operational setbacks.

The biggest risks are operational delays at Grasberg (which has faced mudflow disruptions), commodity price drops (copper price sensitivity), and regulatory/geopolitical issues in Indonesia. Debt and liquidity are well-managed (debt/equity 0.53, interest coverage 19x), but prolonged setbacks could pressure earnings.

Near-term resistance is at $70.97 (52-week high), with support at $61.30 (50 SMA) and $53.90 (150 SMA). Analyst targets average $65-$68, with a wide range from $39 to $81, reflecting both upside potential and risk.

FCX is currently overvalued versus peers (P/E 32.62, elevated EV/EBITDA), but this is supported by strong earnings growth, margin expansion, and cash flow. The premium could compress if growth slows or copper prices weaken.

Fundamentals are strong: revenue and net income are growing rapidly (Q1 2026 revenue up 7.9% YoY), margins are expanding (EBITDA margin >40%), and the balance sheet is solid with strong liquidity and moderate leverage.

Technically, FCX is in a bullish uptrend with a golden cross, price above all key SMAs, and neutral RSI (50.9) indicating no overbought conditions. Upside is capped by resistance at $70.97, with support at $61.30 and $53.90.

Key catalysts include the successful ramp-up at Grasberg, upcoming earnings reports, and macro trends in copper demand from electrification and AI infrastructure. Watch for updates on production guidance and commodity price movements.

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