FCX AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
Fundamentals
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) demonstrates solid fundamental strength driven by robust revenue growth and improving profitability metrics. The company has shown consistent earnings beats and expanding margins over recent quarters, reflecting effective cost control and favorable commodity price dynamics in the copper sector. FCX's financial health appears stable with growing net income despite industry cyclicality.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
-7.29% YoY
Q2 2026
Net Income
27.46% YoY
Q2 2026
Net Margin
Q2 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
| Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.0B | 6.2B | 5.6B | 7.0B | 7.6B | 5.6B | 5.9B | 6.7B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -7.29% | +12.24% | -4.20% | +4.37% | +19.03% | -10.56% | +1.40% | +13.84% |
| Net Income | 984.0M | 881.0M | 406.0M | 674.0M | 772.0M | 346.0M | 274.0M | 520.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +27.46% | +154.62% | +48.18% | +29.62% | +26.56% | -26.07% | -29.20% | +15.81% |
| EPS | $0.68 | $0.61 | $0.28 | $0.46 | $0.53 | $0.24 | $0.19 | $0.36 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +28.30% | +154.17% | +47.37% | +27.78% | +26.19% | -27.27% | -29.60% | +15.05% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
FCX is currently in a technical Stage 2 advancing phase, showing signs of institutional accumulation and an overall uptrend. Price is slightly below the 50-day SMA but above the 150 and 200-day SMAs, indicating a cautiously bullish outlook with a neutral momentum stance. The market is range-bound with weak trend strength but positioned for potential continuation if momentum improves.
Earnings
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) demonstrates solid fundamental strength driven by robust revenue growth and improving profitability metrics. The company has shown consistent earnings beats and expanding margins over recent quarters, reflecting effective cost control and favorable commodity price dynamics in the copper sector. FCX's financial health appears stable with growing net income despite industry cyclicality.
Latest Earnings
Q2 2026 Earnings (Jun 30, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.68
Estimated
$0.60
Surprise
+$0.08
Surprise %
+13.33%
Revenue
Actual
$7.03B
Estimated
$6.62B
Surprise
+$407.71M
Surprise %
+6.16%
Historical Earnings
| Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.68 | $0.57 | $0.47 | $0.50 | $0.54 | $0.24 | $0.31 | $0.38 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.60 | $0.47 | $0.29 | $0.42 | $0.45 | $0.24 | $0.36 | $0.36 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.08 | +$0.10 | +$0.18 | +$0.08 | +$0.09 | +$0.00 | -$0.05 | +$0.02 |
| % Diff | +13.3% | +22.2% | +64.8% | +18.7% | +20.1% | +1.0% | -13.9% | +6.4% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $7.03B | $6.23B | $5.63B | $6.97B | $7.58B | $5.73B | $5.72B | $6.79B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $6.62B | $5.73B | $5.29B | $6.71B | $7.19B | $5.39B | $5.84B | $6.45B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$407.71M | +$505.01M | +$339M | +$258.74M | +$393.85M | +$337.71M | -$124.26M | +$343.01M |
| % Diff | +6.2% | +8.8% | +6.4% | +3.9% | +5.5% | +6.3% | -2.1% | +5.3% |
Valuation
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) currently trades at a premium relative to its historical averages and sector peers, reflecting its strong operational performance and positive analyst sentiment. While some valuation models suggest it is slightly overvalued given elevated multiples, robust earnings growth, expanding margins, and production ramp-ups provide justification. The consensus among analysts leans toward a moderate buy with an average price target indicating upside potential.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 23.12 | 24.09 | 45.35 | 21.32 | 20.45 | 39.44 | 50.11 | 34.67 |
| Price to Sales | 12.91 | 13.62 | 13.01 | 8.12 | 8.26 | 9.84 | 9.31 | 10.79 |
| Price to Book | 4.51 | 4.35 | 3.88 | 3.03 | 3.44 | 3.09 | 3.11 | 4.11 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 38.08 | 34.28 | 71.37 | 23.43 | 21.59 | 32.58 | 32.78 | 28.75 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 13.80 | 14.64 | 14.46 | 8.90 | 8.95 | 10.72 | 10.30 | 11.34 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) sentiment is moderately positive, buoyed by strong Q2 2026 earnings beats, solid operational guidance, and upbeat analyst ratings emphasizing future growth potential, notably from the new Indonesian smelter. However, caution exists around ongoing operational risks at the Grasberg mine, political/regulatory uncertainties, and valuation concerns highlighted by some market participants. Social sentiment reflects a mix of optimism driven by fundamentals and skepticism due to execution risks and elevated valuation.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) exhibits solid financial health with strong liquidity and moderate leverage, supported by favorable copper market dynamics and ongoing operational improvements at key mines. Regulatory and operational risks, especially in Indonesia, along with production challenges at Grasberg, temper the risk outlook but are mitigated by long-term mining license extensions and diversification initiatives. Overall, FCX presents a moderate risk profile with resilient business fundamentals in a competitive and cyclical sector.
Liquidity & Solvency
Frequently Asked Questions about FCX
AI Answers: Common Questions About FCX
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Yes, FCX is a good buy for medium to long-term investors given its strong fundamentals, consistent earnings growth, and strategic positioning in copper mining. The current P/E of 30.11 reflects growth expectations justified by margin expansion and production ramp-ups.
Not recommended to sell currently unless facing short-term technical breakdown below key support levels near $61.83 or if copper prices decline sharply. The stock shows strong earnings momentum and positive medium to long-term outlook.
Key risks include copper price volatility, operational disruptions at the Grasberg mine, geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties in Indonesia, and execution risks on capital projects like the Bagdad expansion.
Analyst consensus price targets average near $70, implying upside potential of approximately 12-25% from the current price of $62.63, supported by operational growth and favorable copper market conditions.
FCX trades at a premium valuation with a P/E of 30.11 and elevated EV/EBITDA, justified by accelerating earnings growth and margin improvements. The valuation is fair but warrants monitoring due to cyclical commodity risks.
Fundamentals are strong with revenue growth from $22.7B in 2023 to $25.7B in 2025, net income rising to $2.2B, and improving margins (gross margin ~31%, net margin near 10%). Earnings beats and cash flow generation are consistent.
Technically, FCX is in a consolidative phase below the 50-day SMA ($63.59) with support near the 150-day SMA ($61.83). Momentum is neutral (RSI ~51), suggesting limited short-term upside but potential for breakout if resistance is breached.
Key catalysts include the Indonesian smelter reaching full capacity, sustained high copper prices driven by global electrification, and operational improvements at the Grasberg mine.
Want a Personalized Answer?
Get AI-powered insights tailored to your risk tolerance and investment goals.