FCX AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

$62.67-3.26 (-4.94%) today

Open
$64.15
High
$64.30
Low
$61.37
Volume
17.62M
Mkt Cap
$90.07B
52W High
$69.75
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
MIXED
Overall
Summary

FCX offers strong long-term fundamentals and sector leadership in copper, but faces significant near-term operational, legal, and geopolitical risks, with valuation at a historical premium. Technicals and sentiment are neutral to negative, suggesting caution for short- and medium-term traders, while long-term investors may benefit from structural copper demand if risks are managed. The overall risk/reward is balanced, with meaningful upside contingent on operational recovery and stable commodity prices.

By Timeframe
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Short
HOLD
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
41
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) exhibits resilient topline growth and stable free cash flow generation, supported by its strong operating scale in copper mining. While financial performance overall is robust, a recent contraction in gross and net margins highlights cost pressures and commodity price volatility inherent to the business. The high current valuation implies considerable optimism and raises the bar for sustained future performance.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B$8.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)4%6%8%10%12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$5.63B

-4.20% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$406.00M

48.18% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

7.21%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

-4.20%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

48.18%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-4.60%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

47.37%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

6.46%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue5.6B7.0B7.6B5.6B5.9B6.7B6.4B6.2B
Revenue Growth YoY-4.20%+4.37%+19.03%-10.56%+1.40%+13.84%+7.38%+21.57%
Net Income406.0M674.0M772.0M346.0M274.0M520.0M610.0M468.0M
Net Income Growth YoY+48.18%+29.62%+26.56%-26.07%-29.20%+15.81%+80.47%-28.88%
EPS$0.28$0.46$0.53$0.24$0.19$0.36$0.42$0.33
EPS Growth YoY+47.37%+27.78%+26.19%-27.27%-29.60%+15.05%+78.19%-28.14%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

18.05%

TTM

Operating Margin

14.40%

TTM

Net Margin

7.21%

TTM

Return on Equity

11.97%

TTM

Return on Assets

3.81%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin18.05%29.93%34.11%22.60%25.48%29.70%30.82%28.07%
Operating Margin14.40%28.06%32.08%19.64%23.08%27.65%28.45%24.67%
Net Margin7.21%9.67%10.18%6.23%4.66%7.78%9.58%7.54%
Return on Equity (ROE)2.15%3.61%4.24%1.96%1.56%2.96%3.50%2.76%
Return on Assets (ROA)0.70%1.19%1.37%0.62%0.50%0.94%1.12%0.86%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Unable to retrieve direct technical indicator data at this moment, a web search was conducted to gather relevant recent technical insights on FCX. The stock shows consolidation with support near $62 and resistance around $66–$67. Technical momentum appears mixed with some downside pressure but no decisive breakdown yet, indicating a cautious trading environment.

RSI
Hold
Neutral48

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+33.5% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend25

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$62.66
50 SMA
$60.32
150 SMA
$48.43
200 SMA
$46.93
52W High
$69.75
52W Low
$27.66

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
48Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) exhibits resilient topline growth and stable free cash flow generation, supported by its strong operating scale in copper mining. While financial performance overall is robust, a recent contraction in gross and net margins highlights cost pressures and commodity price volatility inherent to the business. The high current valuation implies considerable optimism and raises the bar for sustained future performance.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.47

Estimated

$0.29

Surprise

+$0.18

Surprise %

+64.80%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$5.63B

Estimated

$5.29B

Surprise

+$339M

Surprise %

+6.40%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.47$0.50$0.54$0.24$0.31$0.38$0.46$0.32
EPS (Estimated)$0.29$0.42$0.45$0.24$0.36$0.36$0.38$0.26
EPS Surprise+$0.18+$0.08+$0.09+$0.00-$0.05+$0.02+$0.08+$0.06
% Diff+64.8%+18.7%+20.1%+1.0%-13.9%+6.4%+21.1%+23.1%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$5.63B$6.97B$7.58B$5.73B$5.72B$6.79B$6.62B$6.21B
Revenue (Estimated)$5.29B$6.71B$7.19B$5.39B$5.84B$6.45B$6B$5.7B
Revenue Surprise+$339M+$258.74M+$393.85M+$337.71M-$124.26M+$343.01M+$625.69M+$505.92M
% Diff+6.4%+3.9%+5.5%+6.3%-2.1%+5.3%+10.4%+8.9%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) presents a complex valuation profile driven by strong operational fundamentals but tempered by elevated multiples and production uncertainties. While the stock trades at higher multiples than its sector peers, solid growth prospects and improving production capacity support a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

41.14

TTM

Price to Sales

3.50

TTM

Price to Book

4.79

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

11.22

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

3.82

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings45.1320.9920.2739.5049.9334.6628.4936.31
Price to Sales13.018.128.269.849.3110.7910.9110.94
Price to Book3.883.033.443.093.114.113.994.00
Enterprise Value to EBITDA71.3723.4321.5932.5832.7828.7527.6930.22
Enterprise Value to Revenue14.468.908.9510.7210.3011.3411.4211.47

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

FCX sentiment is currently mixed with a cautious tone from recent geopolitical and operational concerns, despite a strong long-term analyst consensus leaning positive. While the stock faced a notable short-term price drop influenced by external factors and insider selling, analyst upgrades and earnings beats suggest confidence in its longer-term fundamentals and market position.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 21 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
2
Buy
12
Strong Buy
6

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
HIGH

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shows solid liquidity and moderate leverage, indicating capacity to meet short-term obligations and maintain operational stability. However, significant operational risks, particularly the 2025 mudflow incident at the Grasberg mine, ongoing securities litigation, and geopolitical uncertainties in Indonesia amplify concerns. While copper demand fundamentals remain strong, FCX faces elevated market and regulatory risks that could impact near-term production and financial performance.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

2.29

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.05

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.61

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.20

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio2.292.452.472.322.422.332.402.35
Quick Ratio1.051.191.211.131.181.301.341.41
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.610.500.510.530.550.550.540.56
Debt-to-Assets0.200.160.160.170.180.170.170.17

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 2.29(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 1.05(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.61(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.20(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about FCX

AI Answers: Common Questions About FCX

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

FCX is not an outright buy at current levels given its high P/E (43.14) and premium EV/EBITDA relative to peers, especially with recent margin compression and unresolved operational risks. The stock is consolidating near $62 support, and waiting for technical or fundamental clarity is advisable for new entrants.

Unless you have a short-term trading horizon or low risk tolerance, there is no urgent reason to sell; fundamentals remain strong long-term, but near-term risks and technical indecision suggest holding or trimming overweight positions until more clarity emerges.

The biggest risks are operational disruptions at the Grasberg mine (notably the 2025 mudflow), ongoing securities fraud litigation, and geopolitical/regulatory uncertainty in Indonesia. Sentinel notes a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6 and strong liquidity, but warns that these risks could materially impact financials and sentiment.

Technically, FCX has support at $62 and resistance at $66–$67; a break above $67 could target the 52-week high of $69.75, while a breakdown below $62 could see further downside. Analyst targets are broad but generally suggest modest upside if operational issues are resolved.

FCX is fairly to richly valued with a P/E of 43.14 and high EV/EBITDA, well above sector norms and its own historical averages. This premium reflects optimism about long-term copper demand and production recovery, but leaves little margin for error if growth falters.

Fundamentally, FCX is strong with YoY revenue growth (11.6%) and EPS growth (19.5%), and maintains a robust balance sheet (current ratio >2, debt-to-equity 0.6). However, margins have compressed (gross margin down to 26.9%) and recent quarters show earnings deceleration, highlighting cyclical and operational risks.

Technical analysis is neutral: FCX is consolidating between $62 and $67, with RSI in the 45–55 range and no clear breakout or breakdown. Volume is moderate and momentum is indecisive, so traders should wait for a decisive move before acting.

Key catalysts include operational recovery at Grasberg, upcoming earnings reports, copper price movements, and resolution of litigation or regulatory issues in Indonesia. Macro events such as infrastructure spending and electrification trends will also impact long-term demand.

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