FER AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Ferrovial SE (FER)
Fundamentals
Ferrovial SE (FER) exhibits steady growth in revenue and profitability, with improving margins and earnings in recent quarters. The company's results reflect strong operational execution despite industry challenges, maintaining a solid competitive position within the infrastructure and construction sector.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
110.38% YoY
Q2 2026
Net Income
-4.44% YoY
Q2 2026
Net Margin
Q2 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
| Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7B | 2.4B | 2.7B | 2.6B | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.4B | 2.4B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +110.38% | +5.19% | +11.31% | +5.70% | -6.43% | +4.73% | +6.41% | +6.97% |
| Net Income | 258.0M | 129.0M | 211.0M | 174.0M | 270.0M | 270.0M | 1.4B | 1.4B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -4.44% | -52.22% | -85.06% | -87.68% | +30.43% | +77.63% | +716.47% | +716.47% |
| EPS | $0.45 | $0.18 | $0.29 | $0.24 | $0.37 | $0.37 | $1.95 | $1.95 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +21.62% | -51.35% | -85.13% | -87.69% | +32.14% | +32.14% | +2019.57% | +427.03% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
FER is currently in a strong bearish trend with a death cross confirmed as the 50 SMA sits below the 200 SMA. The RSI remains neutral, indicating no extreme momentum, while the ADX suggests a moderate but developing downward trend. The stock is in a topping phase, showing signs of distribution and potential volatility increases, cautioning traders to watch for further breakdowns below key moving averages.
Earnings
Ferrovial SE (FER) exhibits steady growth in revenue and profitability, with improving margins and earnings in recent quarters. The company's results reflect strong operational execution despite industry challenges, maintaining a solid competitive position within the infrastructure and construction sector.
Latest Earnings
Q2 2026 Earnings (Jun 30, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.51
Estimated
$0.25
Surprise
+$0.26
Surprise %
+105.60%
Revenue
Actual
$5.37B
Estimated
$4.93B
Surprise
+$442.02M
Surprise %
+8.97%
Historical Earnings
| Q2 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.51 | $0.34 | $0.28 | $0.44 | $0.41 | $2.02 | $2.14 | $0.30 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.25 | $-0.18 | $-0.21 | $-0.21 | $0.14 | $0.14 | $0.25 | - |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.26 | +$0.52 | +$0.49 | +$0.65 | +$0.26 | +$1.88 | +$1.89 | - |
| % Diff | +105.6% | +293.3% | +233.2% | +305.4% | +186.2% | +1325.5% | +751.9% | - |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $5.37B | $3.19B | $3.02B | $5.37B | $2.45B | $2.53B | $2.68B | $5.26B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $4.93B | $2.36B | $2.84B | $4.93B | $2.22B | $2.11B | $2.46B | $5.33B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$442.02M | +$829.21M | +$184.09M | +$440.84M | +$231.76M | +$419.96M | +$220.35M | -$68.32M |
| % Diff | +9.0% | +35.1% | +6.5% | +8.9% | +10.4% | +19.9% | +9.0% | -1.3% |
Valuation
Ferrovial SE presents a complex valuation profile characterized by elevated multiples compared to historical norms, with a mixed earnings growth outlook and steady revenue growth. While the stock shows some premium valuation metrics within its sector, its competitive position and strong institutional backing provide some support, though current analyst consensus tilts toward a hold stance with moderate upside expectations. Investors should weigh growth prospects against debt levels and sector risks.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q2 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q4 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 33.32 | 27.67 | 15.29 | 5.21 | 32.55 | 22.31 | 3.07 | 32.20 |
| Price to Sales | 16.61 | 7.73 | 7.47 | 6.01 | 6.23 | 5.29 | 5.33 | 4.40 |
| Price to Book | 7.55 | 6.75 | 5.66 | 4.83 | 7.07 | 6.42 | 5.69 | 4.30 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 170.12 | 52.22 | 39.86 | 10.72 | 45.63 | 46.00 | 72.52 | 47.06 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 19.21 | 8.99 | 9.15 | 7.40 | 8.17 | 6.78 | 7.05 | 6.08 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Ferrovial stock sentiment is largely mixed to neutral, with a broad analyst consensus leaning towards hold or moderate buy recommendations. Recent strong financial results and significant contract wins are positive drivers, while some analysts have trimmed price targets amid cautious outlooks. Retail and social media sentiment appear subdued, reflecting balanced investor views and limited hype.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Ferrovial SE presents a moderate financial risk profile with adequate liquidity but elevated leverage reflective of its capital-intensive infrastructure projects. The company benefits from strong revenue growth and operational momentum, particularly in its North American assets, yet faces execution risks from project delays and cyclical market conditions. Market sentiment is neutral to cautious, with consensus around a hold rating, reflecting balanced upside potential against operational and financial risks.
Liquidity & Solvency
Frequently Asked Questions about FER
AI Answers: Common Questions About FER
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ferrovial SE
Ferrovial is a good long-term buy given its steady revenue growth (12% in 2025), improving margins (operating margin over 12%), and strong concession-based cash flows. However, short-term technicals suggest caution before entry.
Short-term traders may consider selling or avoiding new positions due to bearish technical signals including a confirmed death cross and price below key moving averages. Long-term investors should hold unless project execution deteriorates.
Key risks include project delays (e.g., JFK Airport), high debt levels (debt-to-equity ~1.82), macroeconomic slowdowns affecting traffic, and regulatory changes impacting infrastructure revenues and costs.
Analyst consensus price targets range from $66 to $70, reflecting moderate upside from the current price of $65.10, supported by strong earnings growth and contract wins but tempered by valuation and risk concerns.
Ferrovial trades at a P/E of 20.2 and elevated EV/EBITDA multiples above sector medians, indicating a premium valuation justified by operational profitability and growth prospects but constrained by leverage and earnings growth moderation.
Fundamentals are strong with revenues rising from €8.5B in 2023 to €9.6B in 2025, EBITDA margins improving from 17% to over 20%, and EPS growth from 0.44 to 0.51 over two years, driven by concession assets and operational efficiencies.
The technical outlook is bearish with a confirmed death cross (50 SMA below 200 SMA), price below key moving averages, and moderate ADX indicating strengthening downward momentum. RSI is neutral at 51, suggesting room for further downside.
Potential catalysts include successful ramp-up of new infrastructure projects, additional contract awards (e.g., US Army Corps, Polish railway tunnel), and strategic acquisitions expanding the concession portfolio.
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