FER AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Ferrovial SE (FER)
Fundamentals
Ferrovial SE is a leading player in the engineering and construction sector with a strong reputation in infrastructure development and management. The company demonstrates a robust business model, but a high P/E ratio and lack of up-to-date financial disclosures present difficulties for precise valuation.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
-6.11% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
-27.04% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.1B | 2.7B | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.1B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -6.11% | +11.31% | -6.43% | +4.73% | +6.41% | +6.97% | +21.22% | +8.30% |
| Net Income | 197.0M | 211.0M | 270.0M | 270.0M | 1.4B | 1.4B | 207.0M | 152.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -27.04% | -85.06% | +30.43% | +77.63% | +716.47% | +716.47% | +112.97% | -91.11% |
| EPS | $0.00 | $0.29 | $0.37 | $0.37 | $1.95 | $1.95 | $0.28 | $0.28 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -100.00% | -85.13% | +32.14% | +32.14% | +2019.57% | +427.03% | +113.33% | -88.14% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
FER stock is currently exhibiting a strong bullish technical profile, trading above its key moving averages with a golden cross in place. The RSI is neutral, indicating balanced momentum, while the ADX suggests a weak trend strength despite the uptrend, pointing to possible range-bound behavior in the short term. Overall, the price action supports an advancing phase with institutional accumulation, signaling a positive medium-term outlook.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Range-bound market
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Ferrovial SE is a leading player in the engineering and construction sector with a strong reputation in infrastructure development and management. The company demonstrates a robust business model, but a high P/E ratio and lack of up-to-date financial disclosures present difficulties for precise valuation.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.34
Estimated
$-0.18
Surprise
+$0.52
Surprise %
+293.26%
Revenue
Actual
$3.19B
Estimated
$2.36B
Surprise
+$829.21M
Surprise %
+35.12%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.34 | $0.44 | $0.41 | $2.03 | $2.15 | $0.31 | $0.26 | $0.26 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $-0.18 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.52 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % Diff | +293.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $3.19B | $2.63B | $2.45B | $2.53B | $2.68B | $2.57B | $2.52B | $2.41B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $2.36B | $2.52B | $1.98B | $2.03B | $2.27B | $4.44B | - | - |
| Revenue Surprise | +$829.21M | +$109.02M | +$467.31M | +$501.28M | +$410.18M | -$1.88B | - | - |
| % Diff | +35.1% | +4.3% | +23.6% | +24.8% | +18.1% | -42.2% | - | - |
Valuation
Ferrovial SE's valuation metrics indicate a premium positioning relative to its sector, reflected in elevated P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. While recent revenue growth and strong EBITDA performance support its business model, earnings growth challenges and high leverage introduce caution. Analyst consensus tends toward a Hold, with near-term price targets close to current pricing, suggesting limited upside potential.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q2 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 27.67 | 15.29 | 5.21 | 32.55 | 22.31 | 3.07 | 32.20 | -604.75 |
| Price to Sales | 7.73 | 7.47 | 6.01 | 6.23 | 5.29 | 5.33 | 4.40 | 4.93 |
| Price to Book | 6.75 | 5.66 | 4.83 | 7.07 | 6.42 | 5.69 | 4.30 | 4.31 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 52.22 | 39.86 | 10.72 | 45.63 | 46.00 | 72.52 | 47.06 | 64.95 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 8.99 | 9.15 | 7.40 | 8.17 | 6.78 | 7.05 | 6.08 | 6.76 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Ferrovial SE (FER) sentiment shows a cautiously optimistic picture, with a majority of analysts leaning towards Hold and Buy ratings, reflecting moderate upside potential. News and social media indicate mixed but generally positive sentiment, supported by recent technical buy signals and stable investor interest. Overall, sentiment reflects broad market confidence tempered by prudent caution in light of current market conditions.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Ferrovial SE exhibits moderate financial health with manageable liquidity but elevated leverage reflecting its capital-intensive infrastructure business. Despite steady liquidity ratios, the company's high debt levels and project execution risks add some concern, balanced by stable market sentiment with a consensus "Hold" rating and limited upside potential. Key risks include regulatory changes, geopolitical events, and execution challenges, particularly in its North American operations.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q2 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | 0.94 | 1.22 | 0.93 | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.38 | 1.26 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 | 0.86 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 1.13 | 1.18 | 1.29 | 1.19 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 3.17 | 3.07 | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.84 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.13(Adequate)
Quick Ratio: 1.05(Strong)
The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 1.82(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.39(Moderate)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about FER
AI Answers: Common Questions About FER
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ferrovial SE
Ferrovial is not a compelling buy at current levels, as its P/E (49.09) and EV/EBITDA are well above sector averages, and the stock trades near consensus price targets (~$70.47). While technicals are bullish, the fundamental and valuation picture suggest only modest upside from here.
There is no strong reason to sell unless your thesis has changed or you require capital elsewhere; fundamentals remain robust and technicals are supportive. However, with limited upside and high valuation, consider trimming if overweight or reallocating if seeking higher growth.
The biggest risks are Ferrovial’s high leverage (debt-to-equity near 1.8), execution challenges on large North American projects, and exposure to regulatory and geopolitical changes. Liquidity is adequate but not strong (current ratio just above 1), so any earnings shortfall or cost overrun could pressure the stock.
Analyst price targets cluster around $70.47, just above current levels ($69.22), with technical resistance at $74.79 and support at $68.68 and $65.71. Near-term upside is capped at 7-9% unless a breakout occurs after earnings.
Ferrovial is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, with a P/E of 49.09 and high EV/EBITDA multiples reflecting premium assets and growth expectations. The valuation premium is justified by stable cash flows but is vulnerable if growth slows or risks materialize.
Fundamentals are strong: Ferrovial enjoys above-average margins, stable recurring revenues from concessions, and a diversified global pipeline. However, earnings can be volatile due to asset sales, and the balance sheet is moderately leveraged.
Technicals are bullish: price is above all key moving averages, a golden cross is active, and RSI is neutral at 56. Support is at $68.68 and $65.71, with resistance at $74.79; volume is slightly above average, indicating steady interest.
Key catalysts include the July 28, 2026 earnings report, dividend payments, and potential new project wins or asset recycling deals. Macro factors such as interest rates, infrastructure spending, and geopolitical stability will also influence the stock.
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