FER AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Ferrovial SE (FER)
Ferrovial (FER) offers resilient revenue growth and strong infrastructure assets, but faces near-term earnings volatility, margin compression, and a premium valuation. Technicals and sentiment are neutral-to-cautious, with the stock consolidating near key support after a sharp pullback. The long-term case is intact for patient investors, but short- and medium-term risks warrant caution and selective exposure.
Fundamentals
Ferrovial (FER) exhibits a solid track record of revenue growth and resilient profitability, yet recent financials highlight earnings volatility and contracting margins. The company's premium valuation signals high market expectations, but operational uncertainties and the current earnings downturn warrant caution.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
11.31% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-85.06% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.7B | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.1B | 2.3B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +11.31% | -6.43% | +4.73% | +6.41% | +6.97% | +21.22% | +8.30% | +8.93% |
| Net Income | 211.0M | 270.0M | 270.0M | 1.4B | 1.4B | 207.0M | 0.0 | 173.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -85.06% | +30.43% | N/A | +716.47% | +716.47% | +112.97% | -100.00% | +260.19% |
| EPS | $0.29 | $0.37 | $0.37 | $1.95 | $1.95 | $0.28 | $0.00 | $0.09 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -85.13% | +32.14% | N/A | +2019.57% | +427.03% | +113.33% | -100.00% | +161.33% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
Technical indicator data for FER is currently unavailable from internal sources. However, based on recent price action and publicly available information, FER is testing key support levels near its recent lows, showing signs of volatility and indecision. Momentum appears to be weakening as the price approaches critical moving averages.
No extreme reading
Mixed signals
Trend developing
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Ferrovial (FER) exhibits a solid track record of revenue growth and resilient profitability, yet recent financials highlight earnings volatility and contracting margins. The company's premium valuation signals high market expectations, but operational uncertainties and the current earnings downturn warrant caution.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.34
Estimated
N/A
Revenue
Actual
$3.19B
Estimated
$2B
Surprise
+$1.19B
Surprise %
+59.21%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.34 | $0.44 | $0.41 | $2.03 | $2.15 | $0.31 | $0.26 | $0.26 |
| EPS (Estimated) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EPS Surprise | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % Diff | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $3.19B | $2.63B | $2.45B | $2.53B | $2.68B | $2.57B | $2.52B | $2.41B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $2B | $2.52B | $1.98B | $2.03B | $2.27B | $4.44B | - | - |
| Revenue Surprise | +$1.19B | +$109.02M | +$467.31M | +$501.28M | +$410.18M | -$1.88B | - | - |
| % Diff | +59.2% | +4.3% | +23.6% | +24.8% | +18.1% | -42.2% | - | - |
Valuation
Ferrovial (FER) presents a moderately premium valuation supported by consistent revenue growth and a solid business model, though recent earnings have contracted significantly. Analyst consensus largely leans towards a moderate buy with price targets near current levels, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed technical signals and some valuation concerns. Overall, fundamentals remain strong but valuation multiples appear stretched relative to historical and peer benchmarks.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q2 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 28.65 | 15.46 | 5.19 | 32.11 | 34.96 | 3.07 | 32.50 | 83.81 |
| Price to Sales | 7.73 | 7.47 | 12.01 | 11.13 | 10.61 | 10.66 | 4.33 | 5.03 |
| Price to Book | 6.75 | 5.66 | 4.83 | 7.07 | 6.42 | 5.69 | 4.30 | 4.31 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 34.53 | 62.44 | 97.17 | 101.94 | 62.00 | 138.54 | 5.80 | -7.27 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 8.99 | 9.15 | 14.80 | 14.60 | 13.59 | 14.10 | 5.98 | 6.90 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Ferrovial (FER) sentiment is moderately positive with a majority of analysts recommending Buy or Moderate Buy. Recent news highlights a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and dividends support positive outlook, while valuation concerns and recent stock price decline weigh on sentiment. Social media buzz has notably increased recently, suggesting heightened retail interest, though technical indicators lean bearish in the short term.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Ferrovial SE (FER) exhibits a moderately leveraged balance sheet with improving liquidity metrics but remains exposed to cyclical and geopolitical risks inherent in the steel and infrastructure sectors. While market sentiment is cautiously optimistic supported by strong pricing power in toll roads and infrastructure projects, concerns about high valuation and subdued global steel demand moderate the investment appeal.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q2 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | 0.94 | 1.22 | 0.93 | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.38 | 1.26 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 | 0.86 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 1.13 | 1.18 | 1.29 | 1.19 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 3.17 | 3.07 | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.84 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.13(Adequate)
Quick Ratio: 1.05(Strong)
The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 1.82(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.39(Moderate)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about FER
AI Answers: Common Questions About FER
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ferrovial SE
FER is not an outright buy at current levels given its P/E of 48.47, recent EPS decline (down 72% YoY), and price consolidating near support at $68. While long-term prospects are solid, the premium valuation and margin pressure suggest waiting for either a technical breakout or fundamental improvement before adding aggressively.
Unless your thesis has changed or you have a low risk tolerance, there is no urgent reason to sell; the stock is not in a confirmed downtrend and retains long-term strengths. However, if margin and earnings do not recover or if price breaks below $68 support, consider reducing exposure.
Key risks include margin compression (net margin now 9.2%, operating margin 12.2%), high leverage (debt/equity ~1.8), and thin interest coverage (just above 2x). Regulatory, geopolitical, and macroeconomic factors could further pressure earnings and cash flow.
Analyst targets average around $75, with technical resistance at $74.79 (52-week high) and support at $68.00; if support fails, next downside is $65.00. Upside is limited unless margin recovery materializes.
FER is fairly to slightly overvalued: P/E (48.47) and EV/EBITDA are well above sector and historical averages, and price-to-sales is high. The market is pricing in strong future growth, but recent earnings declines challenge this premium.
Fundamentally, FER boasts robust revenue growth and high gross margins (>85%), but recent operating and net margin contraction, alongside volatile EPS, point to operational headwinds. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage and improving liquidity, but not without risk.
Technical analysis is neutral: the stock is consolidating between $68-$70, with weak momentum and no clear trend. RSI and MACD are neutral, and volume is below average; a break below $68 could trigger further downside, while holding this level may set up a rebound.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (for signs of margin recovery), new concession wins, asset sales, or macro events like infrastructure stimulus. Watch for management commentary on cost control and any regulatory or geopolitical developments impacting operations.
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