FER AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Ferrovial SE (FER)

$68.91-1.14 (-1.63%) today

Open
$69.11
High
$69.19
Low
$68.20
Volume
1.35M
Mkt Cap
$49.66B
52W High
$74.79
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
FERFerrovial SE
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Ferrovial SE (FER) is fundamentally strong with robust growth and profitability, but its premium valuation and moderate risk profile limit near-term upside. Technicals are bullish but momentum is consolidating, and sentiment is mixed due to valuation concerns. The stock is best held for now, with selective buying on pullbacks for long-term investors seeking infrastructure exposure.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
HOLD
Short
HOLD
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

FER (Ferrovial SE) demonstrates robust revenue growth and improving profitability, bolstered by its leading position in global infrastructure. While margins have strengthened and earnings quality has improved, the stock's premium valuation warrants caution. Fundamentals are solid, but valuation and cyclicality risks remain present.

Financial Highlights

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q4 2025$0$700.0M$1.4B$2.1B$2.8BRevenue & Net Income ($)0%15%30%45%60%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$2.72B

11.31% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$211.00M

-85.06% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

7.77%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

11.31%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-85.06%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

5.91%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-85.13%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-5.41%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024Q4 2023
Revenue2.7B2.2B2.2B2.4B2.4B2.4B2.1B2.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+11.31%-6.43%+4.73%+6.41%+6.97%+21.22%+8.30%+8.93%
Net Income211.0M270.0M270.0M1.4B1.4B207.0M0.0173.0M
Net Income Growth YoY-85.06%+30.43%N/A+716.47%+716.47%+112.97%-100.00%+260.19%
EPS$0.29$0.37$0.37$1.95$1.95$0.28$0.00$0.09
EPS Growth YoY-85.13%+32.14%N/A+2019.57%+427.03%+113.33%-100.00%+161.33%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

88.32%

TTM

Operating Margin

12.23%

TTM

Net Margin

9.22%

TTM

Return on Equity

15.04%

TTM

Return on Assets

3.30%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024Q4 2023
Gross Margin100.00%88.30%88.30%85.86%85.86%89.53%88.07%85.96%
Operating Margin7.77%15.80%15.80%52.42%52.42%16.71%7.12%-3.27%
Net Margin7.77%12.08%12.08%57.89%57.89%8.67%0.00%7.54%
Return on Equity (ROE)5.89%9.15%46.50%46.50%46.50%11.01%11.01%9.19%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.29%2.08%19.64%19.64%19.64%1.59%1.59%1.35%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

FER is currently in a strong bullish uptrend characterized by price trading above the 50, 150, and 200 SMAs with a golden cross active, signaling institutional accumulation and an advancing phase. Momentum indicators such as RSI remain neutral, while ADX suggests a weak trend strength, indicating potential consolidation in the near term. Key resistance lies near the 52-week high at 74.79, with support clustered between 66.63 and 67.67 (50 and 150 SMAs) and a stronger base near 63.76 (200 SMA).

RSI
Hold
Neutral49

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+7.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend12

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$68.91
50 SMA
$67.50
150 SMA
$66.76
200 SMA
$63.91
52W High
$74.79
52W Low
$47.85

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
49Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

FER (Ferrovial SE) demonstrates robust revenue growth and improving profitability, bolstered by its leading position in global infrastructure. While margins have strengthened and earnings quality has improved, the stock's premium valuation warrants caution. Fundamentals are solid, but valuation and cyclicality risks remain present.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.34

Estimated

$-0.18

Surprise

+$0.52

Surprise %

+293.26%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$3.19B

Estimated

$2.36B

Surprise

+$829.21M

Surprise %

+35.12%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023Q3 2023
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.34$0.44$0.41$2.03$2.15$0.31$0.26$0.26
EPS (Estimated)$-0.18-------
EPS Surprise+$0.52-------
% Diff+293.3%-------
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$3.19B$2.63B$2.45B$2.53B$2.68B$2.57B$2.52B$2.41B
Revenue (Estimated)$2.36B$2.52B$1.98B$2.03B$2.27B$4.44B--
Revenue Surprise+$829.21M+$109.02M+$467.31M+$501.28M+$410.18M-$1.88B--
% Diff+35.1%+4.3%+23.6%+24.8%+18.1%-42.2%--

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Ferrovial SE (FER) currently trades at a premium valuation with a P/E and EV/EBITDA notably higher than sector peers, reflecting investor optimism despite mixed earnings growth and moderate revenue increases. Technical indicators and recent price trends indicate a cautiously bullish short-term outlook, supported by positive market sentiment and strong order book growth. Analyst consensus hovers between Buy and Hold with modest upside price target potential, suggesting limited near-term valuation expansion.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

47.30

TTM

Price to Sales

4.34

TTM

Price to Book

7.11

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

33.14

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

5.02

TTM

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q4 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023Q2 2023Q4 2022Q2 2022
Price to Earnings28.6515.462.5916.0617.4846.0333.2383.81
Price to Sales7.737.476.016.235.295.334.404.93
Price to Book6.755.664.837.076.425.694.304.31
Enterprise Value to EBITDA57.8262.4448.9257.8152.5569.4459.0076.61
Enterprise Value to Revenue8.999.157.408.176.787.056.086.76

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Ferrovial SE (FER) sentiment is broadly constructive with a mixed analyst consensus leaning towards a hold stance. News highlights strong recent operating results and notable contract wins, while social media reflects some valuation concerns due to its high P/E and stretched multiples. Institutional interest remains robust, supporting stable investor confidence despite some caution on valuation risk.

Analyst Recommendations

As of May 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.8 / 5.0
Based on 4 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
2
Buy
1
Strong Buy
1

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Ferrovial SE exhibits moderate financial risk characterized by a solid but slightly strained liquidity position and a high leverage profile typical for its industry. Despite robust revenue growth and improving earnings, risks remain tied to significant debt levels, project execution complexities, and geopolitical factors. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, supported by a mix of buy and hold analyst ratings with modest upside potential.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.13

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.05

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

1.82

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.39

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q4 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023Q2 2023Q4 2022Q2 2022
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.130.941.220.931.211.261.381.26
Quick Ratio1.050.861.140.861.131.181.291.19
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity1.821.751.913.173.073.102.882.84
Debt-to-Assets0.390.390.400.450.440.450.450.45

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.13(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.05(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 1.82(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.39(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about FER

AI Answers: Common Questions About FER

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ferrovial SE

FER is not an ideal buy at current levels given its high P/E (~49.6) and EV/EBITDA multiples, which already price in much of its expected growth. The stock is trading near resistance ($74.79) and above key moving averages, so a pullback to the $67-68 range would offer a better entry for long-term investors.

There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own FER, as fundamentals remain strong and technicals are not signaling a breakdown. However, with limited near-term upside and stretched valuation, trimming or holding is prudent unless growth accelerates or the stock breaks out above $75 with volume.

The biggest risks are high leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.82, interest coverage ~2.48), moderate liquidity (current ratio ~1.13), and sector cyclicality, which could pressure margins and earnings if macro conditions worsen. Project execution and geopolitical risks also remain material.

Technical resistance is at $74.79 (52-week high), with upside breakout potential to $76.50; support is at $67.67 (50 SMA) and $63.76 (200 SMA). Analyst price targets range from €43.40 to €76, suggesting limited near-term upside from current levels ($70.42).

FER is fairly valued but at a premium, with a P/E of ~49.6 and high EV/EBITDA relative to peers and its own history. This premium reflects strong margins and backlog, but leaves little room for multiple expansion unless growth re-accelerates.

Fundamentally, FER is strong: revenue grew 12.8% in 2025, operating margin reached 12%, and net margin is above 9%. However, leverage is high and liquidity is only adequate, so financial discipline is crucial going forward.

Technically, FER is in a bullish uptrend above all major SMAs with a golden cross, but ADX below 20 suggests weak trend strength and possible consolidation. RSI is neutral (~55), so momentum is steady but not overbought; watch for a breakout above $74.79 or pullbacks to $67-68 for entries.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (look for margin and backlog updates), major contract wins (especially in the U.S.), and macro trends in infrastructure spending. Nasdaq-100 inclusion and sustainability initiatives may also drive institutional interest.

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