FER AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Ferrovial SE (FER)
Ferrovial SE (FER) is fundamentally strong with robust growth and profitability, but its premium valuation and moderate risk profile limit near-term upside. Technicals are bullish but momentum is consolidating, and sentiment is mixed due to valuation concerns. The stock is best held for now, with selective buying on pullbacks for long-term investors seeking infrastructure exposure.
Fundamentals
FER (Ferrovial SE) demonstrates robust revenue growth and improving profitability, bolstered by its leading position in global infrastructure. While margins have strengthened and earnings quality has improved, the stock's premium valuation warrants caution. Fundamentals are solid, but valuation and cyclicality risks remain present.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
11.31% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-85.06% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.7B | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.1B | 2.3B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +11.31% | -6.43% | +4.73% | +6.41% | +6.97% | +21.22% | +8.30% | +8.93% |
| Net Income | 211.0M | 270.0M | 270.0M | 1.4B | 1.4B | 207.0M | 0.0 | 173.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -85.06% | +30.43% | N/A | +716.47% | +716.47% | +112.97% | -100.00% | +260.19% |
| EPS | $0.29 | $0.37 | $0.37 | $1.95 | $1.95 | $0.28 | $0.00 | $0.09 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -85.13% | +32.14% | N/A | +2019.57% | +427.03% | +113.33% | -100.00% | +161.33% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | Q4 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 100.00% | 88.30% | 88.30% | 85.86% | 85.86% | 89.53% | 88.07% | 85.96% |
| Operating Margin | 7.77% | 15.80% | 15.80% | 52.42% | 52.42% | 16.71% | 7.12% | -3.27% |
| Net Margin | 7.77% | 12.08% | 12.08% | 57.89% | 57.89% | 8.67% | 0.00% | 7.54% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 5.89% | 9.15% | 46.50% | 46.50% | 46.50% | 11.01% | 11.01% | 9.19% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 1.29% | 2.08% | 19.64% | 19.64% | 19.64% | 1.59% | 1.59% | 1.35% |
Technical Analysis
FER is currently in a strong bullish uptrend characterized by price trading above the 50, 150, and 200 SMAs with a golden cross active, signaling institutional accumulation and an advancing phase. Momentum indicators such as RSI remain neutral, while ADX suggests a weak trend strength, indicating potential consolidation in the near term. Key resistance lies near the 52-week high at 74.79, with support clustered between 66.63 and 67.67 (50 and 150 SMAs) and a stronger base near 63.76 (200 SMA).
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Range-bound market
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
FER (Ferrovial SE) demonstrates robust revenue growth and improving profitability, bolstered by its leading position in global infrastructure. While margins have strengthened and earnings quality has improved, the stock's premium valuation warrants caution. Fundamentals are solid, but valuation and cyclicality risks remain present.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.34
Estimated
$-0.18
Surprise
+$0.52
Surprise %
+293.26%
Revenue
Actual
$3.19B
Estimated
$2.36B
Surprise
+$829.21M
Surprise %
+35.12%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.34 | $0.44 | $0.41 | $2.03 | $2.15 | $0.31 | $0.26 | $0.26 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $-0.18 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.52 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % Diff | +293.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $3.19B | $2.63B | $2.45B | $2.53B | $2.68B | $2.57B | $2.52B | $2.41B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $2.36B | $2.52B | $1.98B | $2.03B | $2.27B | $4.44B | - | - |
| Revenue Surprise | +$829.21M | +$109.02M | +$467.31M | +$501.28M | +$410.18M | -$1.88B | - | - |
| % Diff | +35.1% | +4.3% | +23.6% | +24.8% | +18.1% | -42.2% | - | - |
Valuation
Ferrovial SE (FER) currently trades at a premium valuation with a P/E and EV/EBITDA notably higher than sector peers, reflecting investor optimism despite mixed earnings growth and moderate revenue increases. Technical indicators and recent price trends indicate a cautiously bullish short-term outlook, supported by positive market sentiment and strong order book growth. Analyst consensus hovers between Buy and Hold with modest upside price target potential, suggesting limited near-term valuation expansion.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q2 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 28.65 | 15.46 | 2.59 | 16.06 | 17.48 | 46.03 | 33.23 | 83.81 |
| Price to Sales | 7.73 | 7.47 | 6.01 | 6.23 | 5.29 | 5.33 | 4.40 | 4.93 |
| Price to Book | 6.75 | 5.66 | 4.83 | 7.07 | 6.42 | 5.69 | 4.30 | 4.31 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 57.82 | 62.44 | 48.92 | 57.81 | 52.55 | 69.44 | 59.00 | 76.61 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 8.99 | 9.15 | 7.40 | 8.17 | 6.78 | 7.05 | 6.08 | 6.76 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Ferrovial SE (FER) sentiment is broadly constructive with a mixed analyst consensus leaning towards a hold stance. News highlights strong recent operating results and notable contract wins, while social media reflects some valuation concerns due to its high P/E and stretched multiples. Institutional interest remains robust, supporting stable investor confidence despite some caution on valuation risk.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Ferrovial SE exhibits moderate financial risk characterized by a solid but slightly strained liquidity position and a high leverage profile typical for its industry. Despite robust revenue growth and improving earnings, risks remain tied to significant debt levels, project execution complexities, and geopolitical factors. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, supported by a mix of buy and hold analyst ratings with modest upside potential.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q2 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | 0.94 | 1.22 | 0.93 | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.38 | 1.26 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 | 0.86 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 1.13 | 1.18 | 1.29 | 1.19 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.91 | 3.17 | 3.07 | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.84 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.13(Adequate)
Quick Ratio: 1.05(Strong)
The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 1.82(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.39(Moderate)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about FER
AI Answers: Common Questions About FER
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ferrovial SE
FER is not an ideal buy at current levels given its high P/E (~49.6) and EV/EBITDA multiples, which already price in much of its expected growth. The stock is trading near resistance ($74.79) and above key moving averages, so a pullback to the $67-68 range would offer a better entry for long-term investors.
There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own FER, as fundamentals remain strong and technicals are not signaling a breakdown. However, with limited near-term upside and stretched valuation, trimming or holding is prudent unless growth accelerates or the stock breaks out above $75 with volume.
The biggest risks are high leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.82, interest coverage ~2.48), moderate liquidity (current ratio ~1.13), and sector cyclicality, which could pressure margins and earnings if macro conditions worsen. Project execution and geopolitical risks also remain material.
Technical resistance is at $74.79 (52-week high), with upside breakout potential to $76.50; support is at $67.67 (50 SMA) and $63.76 (200 SMA). Analyst price targets range from €43.40 to €76, suggesting limited near-term upside from current levels ($70.42).
FER is fairly valued but at a premium, with a P/E of ~49.6 and high EV/EBITDA relative to peers and its own history. This premium reflects strong margins and backlog, but leaves little room for multiple expansion unless growth re-accelerates.
Fundamentally, FER is strong: revenue grew 12.8% in 2025, operating margin reached 12%, and net margin is above 9%. However, leverage is high and liquidity is only adequate, so financial discipline is crucial going forward.
Technically, FER is in a bullish uptrend above all major SMAs with a golden cross, but ADX below 20 suggests weak trend strength and possible consolidation. RSI is neutral (~55), so momentum is steady but not overbought; watch for a breakout above $74.79 or pullbacks to $67-68 for entries.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (look for margin and backlog updates), major contract wins (especially in the U.S.), and macro trends in infrastructure spending. Nasdaq-100 inclusion and sustainability initiatives may also drive institutional interest.
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