FER AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

Ferrovial SE (FER)

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Ferrovial SE (FER) exhibits steady growth in revenue and profitability, with improving margins and earnings in recent quarters. The company's results reflect strong operational execution despite industry challenges, maintaining a solid competitive position within the infrastructure and construction sector.

Financial Highlights

Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026$0$1.5B$3.0B$4.5B$6.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)3%6%9%12%15%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$4.70B

110.38% YoY

Q2 2026

Net Income

$258.00M

-4.44% YoY

Q2 2026

Net Margin

5.49%

Q2 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

110.38%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

-4.44%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-40.37%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

EPS Growth YoY

21.62%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-1.07%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

 Q2 2026Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024
Revenue4.7B2.4B2.7B2.6B2.2B2.2B2.4B2.4B
Revenue Growth YoY+110.38%+5.19%+11.31%+5.70%-6.43%+4.73%+6.41%+6.97%
Net Income258.0M129.0M211.0M174.0M270.0M270.0M1.4B1.4B
Net Income Growth YoY-4.44%-52.22%-85.06%-87.68%+30.43%+77.63%+716.47%+716.47%
EPS$0.45$0.18$0.29$0.24$0.37$0.37$1.95$1.95
EPS Growth YoY+21.62%-51.35%-85.13%-87.69%+32.14%+32.14%+2019.57%+427.03%

Profitability Metrics

No profitability metrics available

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

FER is currently in a strong bearish trend with a death cross confirmed as the 50 SMA sits below the 200 SMA. The RSI remains neutral, indicating no extreme momentum, while the ADX suggests a moderate but developing downward trend. The stock is in a topping phase, showing signs of distribution and potential volatility increases, cautioning traders to watch for further breakdowns below key moving averages.

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Ferrovial SE (FER) exhibits steady growth in revenue and profitability, with improving margins and earnings in recent quarters. The company's results reflect strong operational execution despite industry challenges, maintaining a solid competitive position within the infrastructure and construction sector.

Latest Earnings

Q2 2026 Earnings (Jun 30, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.51

Estimated

$0.25

Surprise

+$0.26

Surprise %

+105.60%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$5.37B

Estimated

$4.93B

Surprise

+$442.02M

Surprise %

+8.97%

Historical Earnings

 Q2 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.51$0.34$0.28$0.44$0.41$2.02$2.14$0.30
EPS (Estimated)$0.25$-0.18$-0.21$-0.21$0.14$0.14$0.25-
EPS Surprise+$0.26+$0.52+$0.49+$0.65+$0.26+$1.88+$1.89-
% Diff+105.6%+293.3%+233.2%+305.4%+186.2%+1325.5%+751.9%-
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$5.37B$3.19B$3.02B$5.37B$2.45B$2.53B$2.68B$5.26B
Revenue (Estimated)$4.93B$2.36B$2.84B$4.93B$2.22B$2.11B$2.46B$5.33B
Revenue Surprise+$442.02M+$829.21M+$184.09M+$440.84M+$231.76M+$419.96M+$220.35M-$68.32M
% Diff+9.0%+35.1%+6.5%+8.9%+10.4%+19.9%+9.0%-1.3%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Ferrovial SE presents a complex valuation profile characterized by elevated multiples compared to historical norms, with a mixed earnings growth outlook and steady revenue growth. While the stock shows some premium valuation metrics within its sector, its competitive position and strong institutional backing provide some support, though current analyst consensus tilts toward a hold stance with moderate upside expectations. Investors should weigh growth prospects against debt levels and sector risks.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

60.29

TTM

Price to Sales

5.32

TTM

Price to Book

7.21

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

40.68

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

6.20

TTM

 Q2 2026Q4 2025Q2 2025Q4 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023Q2 2023Q4 2022
Price to Earnings33.3227.6715.295.2132.5522.313.0732.20
Price to Sales16.617.737.476.016.235.295.334.40
Price to Book7.556.755.664.837.076.425.694.30
Enterprise Value to EBITDA170.1252.2239.8610.7245.6346.0072.5247.06
Enterprise Value to Revenue19.218.999.157.408.176.787.056.08

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Ferrovial stock sentiment is largely mixed to neutral, with a broad analyst consensus leaning towards hold or moderate buy recommendations. Recent strong financial results and significant contract wins are positive drivers, while some analysts have trimmed price targets amid cautious outlooks. Retail and social media sentiment appear subdued, reflecting balanced investor views and limited hype.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Jul 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.3 / 5.0
Based on 3 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
2
Buy
1
Strong Buy
0

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Ferrovial SE presents a moderate financial risk profile with adequate liquidity but elevated leverage reflective of its capital-intensive infrastructure projects. The company benefits from strong revenue growth and operational momentum, particularly in its North American assets, yet faces execution risks from project delays and cyclical market conditions. Market sentiment is neutral to cautious, with consensus around a hold rating, reflecting balanced upside potential against operational and financial risks.

Liquidity & Solvency

Frequently Asked Questions about FER

AI Answers: Common Questions About FER

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ferrovial SE

Ferrovial is a good long-term buy given its steady revenue growth (12% in 2025), improving margins (operating margin over 12%), and strong concession-based cash flows. However, short-term technicals suggest caution before entry.

Short-term traders may consider selling or avoiding new positions due to bearish technical signals including a confirmed death cross and price below key moving averages. Long-term investors should hold unless project execution deteriorates.

Key risks include project delays (e.g., JFK Airport), high debt levels (debt-to-equity ~1.82), macroeconomic slowdowns affecting traffic, and regulatory changes impacting infrastructure revenues and costs.

Analyst consensus price targets range from $66 to $70, reflecting moderate upside from the current price of $65.10, supported by strong earnings growth and contract wins but tempered by valuation and risk concerns.

Ferrovial trades at a P/E of 20.2 and elevated EV/EBITDA multiples above sector medians, indicating a premium valuation justified by operational profitability and growth prospects but constrained by leverage and earnings growth moderation.

Fundamentals are strong with revenues rising from €8.5B in 2023 to €9.6B in 2025, EBITDA margins improving from 17% to over 20%, and EPS growth from 0.44 to 0.51 over two years, driven by concession assets and operational efficiencies.

The technical outlook is bearish with a confirmed death cross (50 SMA below 200 SMA), price below key moving averages, and moderate ADX indicating strengthening downward momentum. RSI is neutral at 51, suggesting room for further downside.

Potential catalysts include successful ramp-up of new infrastructure projects, additional contract awards (e.g., US Army Corps, Polish railway tunnel), and strategic acquisitions expanding the concession portfolio.

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