FER AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Ferrovial SE (FER)

$67.25-2.17 (-3.13%) today

Open
$68.76
High
$68.90
Low
$66.58
Volume
1.34M
Mkt Cap
$48.46B
52W High
$74.79
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
FERFerrovial SE
AlphaCrew AI
MIXED
Overall
Summary

Ferrovial (FER) offers resilient revenue growth and strong infrastructure assets, but faces near-term earnings volatility, margin compression, and a premium valuation. Technicals and sentiment are neutral-to-cautious, with the stock consolidating near key support after a sharp pullback. The long-term case is intact for patient investors, but short- and medium-term risks warrant caution and selective exposure.

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Short
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Agent Signals
5
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Ferrovial (FER) exhibits a solid track record of revenue growth and resilient profitability, yet recent financials highlight earnings volatility and contracting margins. The company's premium valuation signals high market expectations, but operational uncertainties and the current earnings downturn warrant caution.

Financial Highlights

Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q4 2025$0$700.0M$1.4B$2.1B$2.8BRevenue & Net Income ($)0%15%30%45%60%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$2.72B

11.31% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$211.00M

-85.06% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

7.77%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

11.31%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-85.06%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

111.82%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-85.13%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-5.41%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024Q4 2023
Revenue2.7B2.2B2.2B2.4B2.4B2.4B2.1B2.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+11.31%-6.43%+4.73%+6.41%+6.97%+21.22%+8.30%+8.93%
Net Income211.0M270.0M270.0M1.4B1.4B207.0M0.0173.0M
Net Income Growth YoY-85.06%+30.43%N/A+716.47%+716.47%+112.97%-100.00%+260.19%
EPS$0.29$0.37$0.37$1.95$1.95$0.28$0.00$0.09
EPS Growth YoY-85.13%+32.14%N/A+2019.57%+427.03%+113.33%-100.00%+161.33%

Profitability Metrics

No profitability metrics available

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Technical indicator data for FER is currently unavailable from internal sources. However, based on recent price action and publicly available information, FER is testing key support levels near its recent lows, showing signs of volatility and indecision. Momentum appears to be weakening as the price approaches critical moving averages.

RSI
Hold
Neutral38

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

+11.5% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend25

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Hold
Golden Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$67.25
50 SMA
$68.99
150 SMA
$63.04
200 SMA
$60.32
52W High
$74.79
52W Low
$40.46

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
38Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Ferrovial (FER) exhibits a solid track record of revenue growth and resilient profitability, yet recent financials highlight earnings volatility and contracting margins. The company's premium valuation signals high market expectations, but operational uncertainties and the current earnings downturn warrant caution.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Actual

$0.34

Estimated

N/A

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$3.19B

Estimated

$2B

Surprise

+$1.19B

Surprise %

+59.21%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023Q3 2023
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.34$0.44$0.41$2.03$2.15$0.31$0.26$0.26
EPS (Estimated)--------
EPS Surprise--------
% Diff--------
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$3.19B$2.63B$2.45B$2.53B$2.68B$2.57B$2.52B$2.41B
Revenue (Estimated)$2B$2.52B$1.98B$2.03B$2.27B$4.44B--
Revenue Surprise+$1.19B+$109.02M+$467.31M+$501.28M+$410.18M-$1.88B--
% Diff+59.2%+4.3%+23.6%+24.8%+18.1%-42.2%--

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Ferrovial (FER) presents a moderately premium valuation supported by consistent revenue growth and a solid business model, though recent earnings have contracted significantly. Analyst consensus largely leans towards a moderate buy with price targets near current levels, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed technical signals and some valuation concerns. Overall, fundamentals remain strong but valuation multiples appear stretched relative to historical and peer benchmarks.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

47.10

TTM

Price to Sales

4.33

TTM

Price to Book

7.08

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

24.14

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

5.01

TTM

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q4 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023Q2 2023Q4 2022Q2 2022
Price to Earnings28.6515.465.1932.1134.963.0732.5083.81
Price to Sales7.737.4712.0111.1310.6110.664.335.03
Price to Book6.755.664.837.076.425.694.304.31
Enterprise Value to EBITDA34.5362.4497.17101.9462.00138.545.80-7.27
Enterprise Value to Revenue8.999.1514.8014.6013.5914.105.986.90

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Ferrovial (FER) sentiment is moderately positive with a majority of analysts recommending Buy or Moderate Buy. Recent news highlights a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and dividends support positive outlook, while valuation concerns and recent stock price decline weigh on sentiment. Social media buzz has notably increased recently, suggesting heightened retail interest, though technical indicators lean bearish in the short term.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.7 / 5.0
Based on 3 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
1
Buy
2
Strong Buy
0

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Ferrovial SE (FER) exhibits a moderately leveraged balance sheet with improving liquidity metrics but remains exposed to cyclical and geopolitical risks inherent in the steel and infrastructure sectors. While market sentiment is cautiously optimistic supported by strong pricing power in toll roads and infrastructure projects, concerns about high valuation and subdued global steel demand moderate the investment appeal.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.13

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.05

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

1.82

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.39

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q2 2025Q4 2024Q2 2024Q4 2023Q2 2023Q4 2022Q2 2022
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.130.941.220.931.211.261.381.26
Quick Ratio1.050.861.140.861.131.181.291.19
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity1.821.751.913.173.073.102.882.84
Debt-to-Assets0.390.390.400.450.440.450.450.45

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.13(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.05(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 1.82(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.39(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about FER

AI Answers: Common Questions About FER

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ferrovial SE

FER is not an outright buy at current levels given its P/E of 48.47, recent EPS decline (down 72% YoY), and price consolidating near support at $68. While long-term prospects are solid, the premium valuation and margin pressure suggest waiting for either a technical breakout or fundamental improvement before adding aggressively.

Unless your thesis has changed or you have a low risk tolerance, there is no urgent reason to sell; the stock is not in a confirmed downtrend and retains long-term strengths. However, if margin and earnings do not recover or if price breaks below $68 support, consider reducing exposure.

Key risks include margin compression (net margin now 9.2%, operating margin 12.2%), high leverage (debt/equity ~1.8), and thin interest coverage (just above 2x). Regulatory, geopolitical, and macroeconomic factors could further pressure earnings and cash flow.

Analyst targets average around $75, with technical resistance at $74.79 (52-week high) and support at $68.00; if support fails, next downside is $65.00. Upside is limited unless margin recovery materializes.

FER is fairly to slightly overvalued: P/E (48.47) and EV/EBITDA are well above sector and historical averages, and price-to-sales is high. The market is pricing in strong future growth, but recent earnings declines challenge this premium.

Fundamentally, FER boasts robust revenue growth and high gross margins (>85%), but recent operating and net margin contraction, alongside volatile EPS, point to operational headwinds. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage and improving liquidity, but not without risk.

Technical analysis is neutral: the stock is consolidating between $68-$70, with weak momentum and no clear trend. RSI and MACD are neutral, and volume is below average; a break below $68 could trigger further downside, while holding this level may set up a rebound.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (for signs of margin recovery), new concession wins, asset sales, or macro events like infrastructure stimulus. Watch for management commentary on cost control and any regulatory or geopolitical developments impacting operations.

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