HD AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

$361.68-7.43 (-2.01%) today

Open
$366.12
High
$366.98
Low
$359.20
Volume
2.43M
Mkt Cap
$360.06B
52W High
$426.75
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
HDThe Home Depot, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Home Depot remains a fundamentally strong and resilient market leader, but faces near-term technical weakness and valuation constraints. While long-term prospects are supported by stable cash flows and a dominant competitive position, current price action and macro headwinds suggest caution for new entries. Investors should monitor for technical stabilization or improved growth catalysts before adding exposure.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
SELL
Short
WAIT
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
41
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

The Home Depot demonstrates robust financial health and profitability, bolstered by consistent revenue streams and well-managed cost structures. While revenue and earnings growth have moderated in line with a maturing U.S. home improvement sector, operational execution remains strong and margins are stable. The company continues to outperform analyst expectations, reflecting efficient management and resilience amid changing macroeconomic conditions.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$15.0B$30.0B$45.0B$60.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)6.65%7.6%8.55%9.5%10.45%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$38.20B

-3.79% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$2.57B

-14.21% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

6.73%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

-3.79%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-14.21%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-3.99%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-14.24%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

92.58%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue38.2B41.4B45.3B39.9B39.7B40.2B43.2B36.4B
Revenue Growth YoY-3.79%+2.82%+4.87%+9.44%+14.14%+6.65%+0.60%-2.25%
Net Income2.6B3.6B4.6B3.4B3.0B3.6B4.6B3.6B
Net Income Growth YoY-14.21%-1.29%-0.22%-4.64%+7.00%-4.25%-2.10%-7.05%
EPS$2.59$3.63$4.59$3.46$3.02$3.68$4.61$3.64
EPS Growth YoY-14.24%-1.36%-0.43%-4.95%+6.71%-3.92%-1.07%-4.96%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

33.32%

TTM

Operating Margin

12.68%

TTM

Net Margin

8.60%

TTM

Return on Equity

130.02%

TTM

Return on Assets

19.55%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin32.64%33.41%33.41%33.77%32.83%33.38%33.39%34.14%
Operating Margin10.08%12.94%14.48%12.88%11.32%13.47%15.13%13.95%
Net Margin6.73%8.71%10.05%8.61%7.55%9.07%10.56%9.89%
Return on Equity (ROE)20.07%29.72%42.67%43.16%45.14%63.05%103.19%197.80%
Return on Assets (ROA)3.55%4.89%6.35%4.86%4.43%5.31%6.69%5.09%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

Home Depot (HD) is currently in a strong downtrend with price below key moving averages and a death cross formation. Momentum is neutral to bearish as RSI sits in the mid-40s, and the price action suggests a potential topping phase with distribution signals. Key resistance levels remain elevated near the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while support is currently tested near $360 and the recent 52-week low area.

RSI
Hold
Neutral38

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-4.0% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend18

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$361.68
50 SMA
$371.95
150 SMA
$380.13
200 SMA
$376.73
52W High
$426.75
52W Low
$326.31

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
38Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

The Home Depot demonstrates robust financial health and profitability, bolstered by consistent revenue streams and well-managed cost structures. While revenue and earnings growth have moderated in line with a maturing U.S. home improvement sector, operational execution remains strong and margins are stable. The company continues to outperform analyst expectations, reflecting efficient management and resilience amid changing macroeconomic conditions.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Feb 1, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$2.72

Estimated

$2.53

Surprise

+$0.19

Surprise %

+7.51%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$38.2B

Estimated

$38.09B

Surprise

+$107.88M

Surprise %

+0.28%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$2.72$3.74$4.68$3.56$3.13$3.67$4.60$3.63
EPS (Estimated)$2.53$3.83$4.72$3.60$3.04$3.64$4.49$3.60
EPS Surprise+$0.19-$0.09-$0.04-$0.04+$0.09+$0.03+$0.11+$0.03
% Diff+7.5%-2.3%-0.8%-1.1%+3.0%+0.8%+2.4%+0.8%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$38.2B$41.35B$45.28B$39.86B$39.7B$40.22B$43.18B$36.42B
Revenue (Estimated)$38.09B$41.17B$45.41B$39.3B$39.15B$39.31B$42.57B$36.63B
Revenue Surprise+$107.88M+$186.01M-$135.39M+$556.63M+$551.42M+$907.51M+$602.56M-$209.41M
% Diff+0.3%+0.5%-0.3%+1.4%+1.4%+2.3%+1.4%-0.6%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

The Home Depot (HD) currently trades at premium valuation multiples compared to its sector and historical averages, driven by its stable market position and consistent revenue growth. While earnings growth shows slight contraction, solid margins and strong returns on equity underpin investor confidence. Analyst price targets suggest moderate upside potential, reflecting cautious optimism in a mature, competitive retail segment.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

25.37

TTM

Price to Sales

2.19

TTM

Price to Book

28.03

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

15.55

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

2.29

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings36.5126.0620.7526.1334.0627.3619.6323.13
Price to Sales9.839.088.349.0010.289.938.299.15
Price to Book29.3030.9835.4245.1161.4969.0181.01183.02
Enterprise Value to EBITDA82.9869.6560.7068.0884.7371.9055.8663.59
Enterprise Value to Revenue10.2910.469.6410.5111.8111.479.7510.43

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Home Depot (HD) exhibits a moderately positive market sentiment supported by recent Q4 earnings beats, steady revenue growth, and a dividend increase that highlights strong cash flow confidence. Analyst consensus leans towards a 'Moderate Buy,' reflecting optimism driven by Pro customer strength and solid fiscal guidance despite some valuation and margin pressures. Retail investor sentiment remains stable with ongoing discussions about housing market influences and the company's long-term strategic positioning.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.6 / 5.0
Based on 37 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
0
Hold
14
Buy
18
Strong Buy
4

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Home Depot's financial health shows moderate liquidity and improved leverage with a declining debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting deleveraging efforts after prior elevated levels. Despite persistent macroeconomic and housing market headwinds, the company maintains stable cash flow and manageable debt service capacity. Risks include economic sensitivity, inflationary pressures, and competitive challenges, but ongoing strategic acquisitions and dividend growth support a resilient long-term outlook.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.06

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.26

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

1.48

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.18

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.061.051.151.091.111.131.151.34
Quick Ratio0.260.290.340.280.290.310.330.42
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity1.484.875.757.709.3810.9514.6228.03
Debt-to-Assets0.180.550.610.620.650.650.670.64

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.06(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 0.26(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 1.48(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.18(Low)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about HD

AI Answers: Common Questions About HD

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about The Home Depot, Inc.

Home Depot is not an ideal buy at current levels ($366.92) given a P/E of 25.77, technical weakness (price below all major moving averages), and limited near-term growth. The stock is fairly valued relative to its sector, so waiting for a pullback or technical reversal is prudent.

Short-term traders should consider selling or reducing exposure due to confirmed bearish technicals (death cross, RSI 41, risk of breakdown below $360). Long-term investors can hold, as fundamentals remain strong and there is no sign of structural deterioration.

The biggest risks are a slowdown in the housing market, margin pressure from inflation (operating margin down to 12.7%), and competitive threats from both traditional and online rivals. Liquidity is adequate but not robust (current ratio 1.06, quick ratio 0.26), and leverage has improved (debt/equity 1.48) but remains a watch item.

Analyst price targets average $416, but technical resistance is strong at $371 and $377, with support at $360 and $326. If $360 breaks, downside to $326 is likely; upside requires a breakout above $380 with volume.

HD is fairly valued at a P/E of 25.77 and a high EV/EBITDA, reflecting its quality but also pricing in stability and moderate growth. The premium is justified by margins and returns, but leaves little margin for error if growth slows further.

Fundamentally, HD is strong: gross margin ~33%, operating margin 12.7%, steady cash flow, and a dominant market position. Growth has slowed (EPS down 4.6% YoY), but balance sheet and capital allocation remain disciplined.

Technical analysis is bearish: price is below all major SMAs, a death cross is active, RSI is neutral at 41, and volume confirms distribution. Immediate support is $360; a break could target $326.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (which could reset expectations), any signs of housing market recovery, further dividend increases, and successful integration of acquisitions driving Pro segment growth.

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