KDP AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

$26.57+0.15 (+0.57%) today

Open
$26.46
High
$26.58
Low
$26.16
Volume
11.87M
Mkt Cap
$36.10B
52W High
$35.94
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
WAIT
Overall
Summary

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is fundamentally stable and fairly valued, but faces near-term technical weakness, elevated risk from major corporate restructuring, and mixed sentiment due to execution and leverage concerns. Investors should wait for greater clarity on integration progress, margin recovery, and technical stabilization before taking new positions. Long-term prospects remain intact if management successfully executes on transformation and deleveraging.

By Timeframe
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Short
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Medium
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Agent Signals
41
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) operates within the resilient non-alcoholic beverages sector, showing defensiveness but recent challenges in earnings growth and margin compression. While the P/E ratio appears reasonable relative to peers, recent volatility in both technical and fundamental indicators suggests a need for caution. The underlying business remains stable, yet upside potential is currently limited by modest organic growth and operational headwinds.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025-$1.5B$0$1.5B$3.0B$4.5BRevenue & Net Income ($)-6%0%6%12%18%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$4.50B

10.54% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$353.00M

345.14% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

7.85%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

10.54%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

345.14%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

10.87%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

336.36%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

5.57%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue4.5B4.3B4.2B3.6B4.1B3.9B3.9B3.5B
Revenue Growth YoY+10.54%+10.67%+6.14%+4.82%+5.25%+2.26%+3.51%+3.43%
Net Income353.0M662.0M547.0M517.0M-144.0M616.0M515.0M454.0M
Net Income Growth YoY+345.14%+7.47%+6.21%+13.88%-120.78%+18.92%+2.39%-2.78%
EPS$0.26$0.49$0.40$0.38-$0.11$0.45$0.38$0.33
EPS Growth YoY+336.36%+8.89%+5.26%+15.15%-122.00%+21.62%+5.56%0.00%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

52.41%

TTM

Operating Margin

21.97%

TTM

Net Margin

12.52%

TTM

Return on Equity

8.29%

TTM

Return on Assets

18.10%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin53.77%54.34%54.17%54.61%55.95%55.00%55.38%55.94%
Operating Margin21.34%23.11%21.57%22.04%1.55%23.18%21.95%22.06%
Net Margin7.85%15.37%13.14%14.22%-3.54%15.83%13.13%13.09%
Return on Equity (ROE)1.38%2.61%2.19%2.11%-0.59%2.47%2.08%1.84%
Return on Assets (ROA)3.07%6.23%5.31%5.16%-1.48%6.44%5.63%5.12%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

KDP stock is currently in a strong downtrend, trading below its 50, 150, and 200-day moving averages with a bearish death cross confirming negative momentum. RSI is neutral, indicating no extreme short-term momentum, but the ADX suggests a strong prevailing trend to the downside. The technical setup favors caution with declining price action and no immediate bullish reversal pattern apparent.

RSI
Hold
Neutral47

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-8.2% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend32

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$26.57
50 SMA
$27.88
150 SMA
$27.54
200 SMA
$28.93
52W High
$35.94
52W Low
$24.88

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
47Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) operates within the resilient non-alcoholic beverages sector, showing defensiveness but recent challenges in earnings growth and margin compression. While the P/E ratio appears reasonable relative to peers, recent volatility in both technical and fundamental indicators suggests a need for caution. The underlying business remains stable, yet upside potential is currently limited by modest organic growth and operational headwinds.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.60

Estimated

$0.59

Surprise

+$0.01

Surprise %

+1.87%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$4.5B

Estimated

$4.36B

Surprise

+$137.8M

Surprise %

+3.16%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.60$0.54$0.49$0.42$0.58$0.51$0.45$0.38
EPS (Estimated)$0.59$0.54$0.49$0.38$0.57$0.51$0.45$0.35
EPS Surprise+$0.01+$0.00+$0.00+$0.04+$0.01+$0.00+$0.00+$0.03
% Diff+1.9%+0.6%+1.0%+9.8%+1.6%+0.0%+0.0%+8.6%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$4.5B$4.31B$4.16B$3.64B$4.07B$3.89B$3.92B$3.47B
Revenue (Estimated)$4.36B$4.15B$4.14B$3.57B$4.01B$3.92B$3.91B$3.41B
Revenue Surprise+$137.8M+$152.96M+$26.76M+$68.36M+$58.6M-$32.81M+$8.86M+$61.05M
% Diff+3.2%+3.7%+0.6%+1.9%+1.5%-0.8%+0.2%+1.8%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) currently shows a valuation profile suggesting moderate appreciation potential driven by steady revenue growth and improving earnings. Despite recent restructuring initiatives and the planned company split, KDP trades at valuation multiples that are reasonable relative to peers, supported by stable profitability and solid cash flow generation. Analyst consensus leans cautiously bullish with mixed ratings but highlights upside potential around the mid-30s price range.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

17.36

TTM

Price to Sales

2.17

TTM

Price to Book

1.41

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

12.70

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

3.08

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings26.9413.0920.5222.46-75.9620.6321.6123.74
Price to Sales8.468.0510.7912.7810.7513.0611.3512.43
Price to Book1.491.371.801.901.802.041.801.75
Enterprise Value to EBITDA72.4241.4857.2565.32219.2761.6955.9662.90
Enterprise Value to Revenue11.8112.0014.8917.4514.8717.1715.4217.09

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Market sentiment for Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is currently mixed, reflecting cautious optimism about its recent $18.4 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's and the planned spin-off into two independent companies by the end of 2026. Investor concerns focus on elevated leverage and execution risk, with the stock trading near its 52-week low despite favorable earnings and promising growth opportunities in the beverages segment.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.9 / 5.0
Based on 16 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
6
Buy
6
Strong Buy
4

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) exhibits moderate financial risk characterized by liquidity constraints and a moderately leveraged capital structure. The company faces substantial integration risks from its significant JDE Peet's acquisition and ongoing structural separation into two entities, amid competitive pressure from industry giants and evolving consumer preferences. While growth prospects are solid, short-term margin pressures and elevated debt levels warrant cautious monitoring from an investor perspective.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.64

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.43

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.63

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.29

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.640.620.640.470.490.530.510.51
Quick Ratio0.430.380.400.310.330.360.340.34
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.630.690.700.720.710.660.660.67
Debt-to-Assets0.290.320.320.330.320.310.310.31

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.64(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.43(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.63(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.29(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about KDP

AI Answers: Common Questions About KDP

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

KDP is not an ideal buy right now given its strong downtrend, technical weakness, and ongoing restructuring risks. While the P/E ratio of 17.03 and P/S around 2.2 suggest fair value, the stock is trading near its 52-week low and faces execution and leverage headwinds. Waiting for technical stabilization or a positive earnings catalyst is prudent.

If you are a short-term trader, technicals suggest avoiding or reducing exposure due to the persistent downtrend and risk of a breakdown below $24.88. Long-term holders can maintain positions if comfortable with the risks, as fundamentals remain stable and valuation is not stretched, but should monitor integration progress closely.

The biggest risks are integration and execution risk from the $18.4B JDE Peet's acquisition and planned split, elevated leverage (debt-to-equity 0.63, interest coverage ~4x), and liquidity constraints (current ratio 0.63, quick ratio 0.43). Failure to manage these could lead to cash flow stress or further share price declines.

Immediate support is at $24.88, with resistance at $27.88 and $28.93. Analyst targets have been revised down to the high $20s, reflecting caution; a sustained move above $28.93 would be needed to signal technical reversal, while a breakdown below $24.88 could trigger further downside.

KDP is fairly valued with a P/E of 17.03, P/S around 2.2-2.3, and EV/EBITDA in the 12-13 range, all below sector averages. The valuation reflects moderate growth expectations and restructuring risk, but does not indicate overvaluation.

Fundamentals are stable but unexciting: revenue and EPS growth have slowed to low-to-mid single digits, margins are compressed, and the balance sheet is sound but not robust. Earnings quality is moderate, with cash flows covering dividends and CapEx, but growth is reliant on pricing rather than volume.

Technical analysis is bearish: KDP is in a strong downtrend, trading below all major moving averages, with a death cross and RSI at 47.15 (neutral). Support is at $24.88; a break below this could accelerate declines, while no bullish reversal patterns are present.

Key catalysts include the upcoming Q1 2026 earnings report (April 23), updates on integration of the JDE Peet's acquisition, and progress on the planned corporate split. Successful execution and margin recovery could trigger a re-rating, while negative surprises could deepen the downtrend.

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