LLY AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

$983.26-20.31 (-2.02%) today

Open
$990.00
High
$993.50
Low
$965.60
Volume
3.76M
Mkt Cap
$927.57B
52W High
$1,133.95
AI Verdict
Confidence 89%
LLYEli Lilly and Company
AlphaCrew AI
BUY
Overall
Summary

Eli Lilly (LLY) offers a compelling long-term growth story, underpinned by exceptional fundamentals, robust pipeline momentum, and leadership in high-growth therapeutic areas. While short-term technicals suggest consolidation, the medium- and long-term outlooks remain strongly positive, supported by best-in-class profitability and sustained organic growth. Investors should be mindful of premium valuation and sector-specific risks, but the overall risk/reward profile favors accumulation on pullbacks or confirmed breakouts.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
HOLD
Short
BUY
Medium
BUY
Long
Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Eli Lilly (LLY) continues to demonstrate exceptional financial and operational performance, maintaining industry-leading growth and profitability. Robust top- and bottom-line expansion is visible, particularly driven by innovation in diabetes and obesity drugs, positioning Lilly at the forefront of pharmaceutical growth stories. While valuation is rich, business momentum and execution remain strong.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B$20.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)20%25%30%35%40%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$19.29B

42.56% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$6.64B

50.48% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

34.40%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

42.56%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

50.48%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

42.48%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

50.92%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

85.83%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue19.3B17.6B15.6B12.7B13.5B11.4B11.3B8.8B
Revenue Growth YoY+42.56%+53.87%+37.64%+45.17%+44.68%+20.43%+35.98%+25.98%
Net Income6.6B5.6B5.7B2.8B4.4B970.3M3.0B2.2B
Net Income Growth YoY+50.48%+475.34%+90.78%+23.02%+101.39%+1790.42%+68.27%+66.77%
EPS$7.41$6.22$6.30$3.07$4.91$1.08$3.29$2.49
EPS Growth YoY+50.92%+475.93%+91.49%+23.29%+102.06%+1885.12%+76.88%+75.35%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

83.79%

TTM

Operating Margin

45.56%

TTM

Net Margin

31.66%

TTM

Return on Equity

97.85%

TTM

Return on Assets

20.63%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin85.05%82.91%84.27%82.53%82.24%81.02%80.80%80.91%
Operating Margin45.49%47.65%45.80%42.49%42.84%39.77%39.09%31.20%
Net Margin34.40%31.72%36.38%21.68%32.59%8.48%26.25%25.58%
Return on Equity (ROE)25.01%23.46%30.98%17.50%31.07%6.81%21.88%17.51%
Return on Assets (ROA)6.63%5.44%6.34%3.56%6.60%1.53%4.99%4.29%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

LLY is currently in a Stage 2 advancing phase, indicating an uptrend supported by institutional accumulation. The price is trading below the 50-day SMA but above the 150 and 200-day SMAs, with a weak trend momentum and neutral RSI suggesting consolidation and range-bound conditions in the short term.

RSI
Hold
Neutral41

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

+11.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend8

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Hold
Golden Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$983.26
50 SMA
$1048.86
150 SMA
$915.27
200 SMA
$879.74
52W High
$1133.95
52W Low
$623.78

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
41Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Eli Lilly (LLY) continues to demonstrate exceptional financial and operational performance, maintaining industry-leading growth and profitability. Robust top- and bottom-line expansion is visible, particularly driven by innovation in diabetes and obesity drugs, positioning Lilly at the forefront of pharmaceutical growth stories. While valuation is rich, business momentum and execution remain strong.

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Eli Lilly (LLY) is currently trading at a premium relative to its peers, reflecting strong profitability, robust revenue growth, and investor confidence in its growth pipeline, especially in obesity and diabetes treatments. Despite high valuation multiples, analyst consensus is broadly positive with substantial upside potential priced in.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

42.78

TTM

Price to Sales

14.23

TTM

Price to Book

33.28

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

34.47

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

14.77

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings36.3630.6530.9167.2039.28205.6769.4176.36
Price to Sales50.0238.8844.9958.2751.2069.7872.8878.14
Price to Book36.3728.7638.3047.0548.8256.0660.7453.47
Enterprise Value to EBITDA119.2790.9798.14186.68125.83367.45206.41227.47
Enterprise Value to Revenue51.8640.7447.3461.0553.4572.2175.1580.85

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Eli Lilly (LLY) currently enjoys a broadly positive market sentiment supported by strong 2026 sales guidance and solid performance of its GLP-1 drugs. While analyst consensus is bullish with strong buy and buy ratings dominating, retail sentiment is cautiously optimistic, tempered by valuation concerns and competitive pressures. Recent price target upgrades reflect confidence in growth catalysts such as orforglipron's anticipated launch and diversification beyond key franchises.

Analyst Recommendations

No analyst recommendations available.

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Eli Lilly demonstrates robust liquidity and strong ability to meet short-term obligations, backed by improving ratios in recent quarters. However, elevated leverage and significant debt-to-equity levels introduce moderate financial risk, especially amid patent expirations and intense competition in key drug markets like GLP-1. Regulatory scrutiny and competitive pricing pressures add to execution risks, which investors should weigh against the company's strong earnings growth and pipeline potential.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.58

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.19

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

1.60

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.38

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.581.551.281.371.151.271.111.35
Quick Ratio1.191.241.001.060.890.970.871.03
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity1.601.792.182.442.372.192.132.05
Debt-to-Assets0.380.370.400.430.430.410.400.41

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.58(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 1.19(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 1.60(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.38(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about LLY

AI Answers: Common Questions About LLY

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Eli Lilly and Company

LLY is a strong buy for long-term investors, supported by a P/E of 43.95 and industry-leading growth (FY2025 revenue up 44.7%, EPS up 96.1%). While the stock is consolidating below its 50-day SMA ($1052), its fundamentals and pipeline justify premium multiples. Consider accumulating on pullbacks or confirmed breakouts.

Unless your thesis has changed or you require liquidity, there is little reason to sell now. Fundamentals remain robust, with consistent earnings beats and expanding margins. Technicals suggest short-term consolidation, but no breakdown has occurred; long-term prospects remain intact.

The biggest risks are patent expirations for key drugs starting in 2026-2027, elevated debt-to-equity (1.6), and competitive threats from Novo Nordisk in GLP-1. Regulatory scrutiny and pricing pressures could also impact margins, but liquidity ratios (current ratio ~1.6, quick ratio ~1.19) and interest coverage (71x) mitigate near-term financial risk.

Key resistance is at $1052 (50-day SMA) and $1134 (52-week high); support is at $912 (150-day SMA) and $877 (200-day SMA). Analyst price targets range up to $1,500, reflecting confidence in continued growth and pipeline execution.

LLY is fairly valued relative to its growth, trading at a P/E of 43.95 and EV/EBITDA multiples about double sector averages. The premium is justified by superior revenue and earnings growth, but leaves little room for disappointment.

LLY's fundamentals are outstanding: gross margin >85%, operating margin >45%, and FY2025 revenue/EPS growth of 44.7%/96.1%. Earnings quality is high, with strong cash flow and no material non-recurring items distorting results.

Technically, LLY is consolidating below the 50-day SMA ($1052) with neutral RSI (44.79) and weak momentum (ADX 8.16). No clear breakout is present; traders should watch for a move above $1052 or a pullback to $912 for entry.

Key catalysts include the FDA decision and launch of orforglipron, continued strong GLP-1 sales, and upcoming earnings reports. Regulatory approvals and new product launches in 2026 could drive further upside.

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