LLY AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Eli Lilly (LLY) maintains a robust financial profile with strong top-line growth and improving margins supported by its pharmaceutical innovation and operational efficiency. The company consistently beats earnings and revenue estimates, reflecting solid execution and underlying demand. Challenges include regulatory risk and high valuation multiples, but its strong R&D and leading drug pipeline position it well for sustained growth.

Financial Highlights

Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026$0$5.0B$10.0B$15.0B$20.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)20%25%30%35%40%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$19.80B

55.55% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Income

$7.40B

168.04% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Margin

37.36%

Q1 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

55.55%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

168.04%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

56.16%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

EPS Growth YoY

169.38%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

97.64%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Revenue19.8B19.3B17.6B15.6B12.7B13.5B11.4B11.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+55.55%+42.56%+53.87%+37.64%+45.17%+44.68%+20.43%+35.98%
Net Income7.4B6.6B5.6B5.7B2.8B4.4B970.3M3.0B
Net Income Growth YoY+168.04%+50.48%+475.34%+90.78%+23.02%+101.39%+1790.42%+68.27%
EPS$8.27$7.41$6.22$6.30$3.07$4.91$1.08$3.29
EPS Growth YoY+169.38%+50.92%+475.93%+91.49%+23.29%+102.06%+1885.12%+76.88%

Profitability Metrics

No profitability metrics available

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Eli Lilly (LLY) is currently in a strong advancing phase with price above critical moving averages and a recent golden cross indicating bullishness. However, momentum indicators such as RSI and ADX show neutral to weak strength, suggesting possible range-bound behavior near key resistance levels. The stock is testing important resistance around $1235, with support near $1100 providing a solid base for trend continuation or consolidation.

RSI
Hold
Neutral41

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

+9.3% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend18

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Hold
Golden Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$1121.36
50 SMA
$1149.37
150 SMA
$1044.82
200 SMA
$1026.34
52W High
$1249.45
52W Low
$623.78

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
41Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Eli Lilly (LLY) maintains a robust financial profile with strong top-line growth and improving margins supported by its pharmaceutical innovation and operational efficiency. The company consistently beats earnings and revenue estimates, reflecting solid execution and underlying demand. Challenges include regulatory risk and high valuation multiples, but its strong R&D and leading drug pipeline position it well for sustained growth.

Latest Earnings

Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$8.55

Estimated

$6.97

Surprise

+$1.58

Surprise %

+22.67%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$19.8B

Estimated

$17.82B

Surprise

+$1.98B

Surprise %

+11.11%

Historical Earnings

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$8.55$7.54$7.02$6.31$3.34$5.32$1.18$3.92
EPS (Estimated)$6.97$6.91$5.69$5.60$3.26$5.03$1.47$2.60
EPS Surprise+$1.58+$0.63+$1.33+$0.71+$0.08+$0.29-$0.29+$1.32
% Diff+22.7%+9.1%+23.4%+12.7%+2.5%+5.8%-19.7%+50.8%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$19.8B$19.29B$17.6B$15.56B$12.73B$13.53B$11.44B$11.3B
Revenue (Estimated)$17.82B$17.94B$16.05B$14.7B$12.67B-$12.1B$9.98B
Revenue Surprise+$1.98B+$1.35B+$1.55B+$853.57M+$61.12M--$658.68M+$1.32B
% Diff+11.1%+7.5%+9.6%+5.8%+0.5%--5.4%+13.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Eli Lilly exhibits a strong financial and operational profile with robust revenue and earnings growth driven by its leading pharmaceutical products. Valuation metrics indicate a premium stance relative to healthcare peers, justified by superior profitability and growth prospects, especially in the GLP-1 drug market. Analyst sentiment remains bullish with a consensus buy rating and price targets suggesting moderate upside potential.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

39.76

TTM

Price to Sales

14.61

TTM

Price to Book

32.15

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

32.69

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

15.14

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Price to Earnings27.8036.2630.6730.9367.2639.31205.0869.48
Price to Sales41.5550.0238.8844.9958.2751.2069.7872.88
Price to Book26.3736.3728.7638.3047.0548.8256.0660.74
Enterprise Value to EBITDA88.83119.2790.9798.14186.68125.83367.45206.41
Enterprise Value to Revenue43.4851.8640.7447.3461.0553.4572.2175.15

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Market sentiment around Eli Lilly (LLY) is broadly positive, driven by strong clinical trial data for its obesity drug retatrutide and robust performance from its GLP-1 franchise. Investors remain optimistic about the company's growth prospects, supported by expected strong Q2 earnings this week and strategic expansions including a $2.8 billion acquisition and manufacturing investments. However, some headwinds from delayed FDA filings, ongoing litigation, and insider selling temper enthusiasm, resulting in mixed technical signals and cautious near-term outlook from certain analysts.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Aug 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.9 / 5.0
Based on 28 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
1
Hold
4
Buy
17
Strong Buy
5

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Eli Lilly exhibits a moderate financial risk profile with solid liquidity and manageable debt levels, supported by strong cash flows reflected in their healthy interest coverage. However, the company's heavy reliance on a few blockbuster drugs alongside regulatory and pricing pressures introduces notable execution and market risks. Despite a premium valuation, the market environment and competitive landscape pose ongoing challenges that investors should weigh carefully.

Liquidity & Solvency

Frequently Asked Questions about LLY

AI Answers: Common Questions About LLY

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Eli Lilly and Company

Yes, Eli Lilly is a good buy for medium to long-term investors given its strong revenue growth (50% increase from 2023 to 2025), expanding margins (gross margin above 81.9%, operating margin near 45%), and robust pipeline. The current P/E of 39 reflects growth expectations but is justified by earnings quality.

No immediate reason to sell unless regulatory setbacks, significant pipeline failures, or a breakdown below key technical support at $1100 occur. Short-term traders may consider holding due to neutral momentum and resistance near $1235.

Key risks include regulatory and pricing pressures, reliance on a few blockbuster drugs, competition from Novo Nordisk and others, legal challenges, and valuation sensitivity to market sentiment and pipeline execution.

Analyst consensus price targets average around $1,283, implying approximately 12% upside from the current price of $1,148.50, with technical resistance near $1,235 and support at $1,100.

LLY trades at a premium valuation with a P/E ratio of 39.04 and high EV/EBITDA, reflecting strong growth and profitability. The valuation is fairly valued relative to peers given its superior margins and growth but requires monitoring for regulatory or competitive risks.

Fundamentals are strong with revenues growing from $34.1B in 2023 to $65.2B in 2025, EPS rising from $5.83 to $23 forecasted, and margins expanding steadily. The company benefits from a diversified portfolio and leading R&D capabilities.

Technically, LLY is in a bullish uptrend with price above 50- and 200-day SMAs and a golden cross. Momentum indicators are neutral, suggesting possible short-term consolidation near resistance at $1,235 with support at $1,100.

Upcoming catalysts include Q2 2026 earnings expected August 5th, FDA approvals for pipeline drugs like retatrutide, and strategic growth initiatives including acquisitions and manufacturing expansions.

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