LLY AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Eli Lilly (LLY) offers a compelling long-term growth story, underpinned by exceptional fundamentals, robust pipeline momentum, and leadership in high-growth therapeutic areas. While short-term technicals suggest consolidation, the medium- and long-term outlooks remain strongly positive, supported by best-in-class profitability and sustained organic growth. Investors should be mindful of premium valuation and sector-specific risks, but the overall risk/reward profile favors accumulation on pullbacks or confirmed breakouts.
Fundamentals
Eli Lilly (LLY) continues to demonstrate exceptional financial and operational performance, maintaining industry-leading growth and profitability. Robust top- and bottom-line expansion is visible, particularly driven by innovation in diabetes and obesity drugs, positioning Lilly at the forefront of pharmaceutical growth stories. While valuation is rich, business momentum and execution remain strong.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
42.56% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
50.48% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.3B | 17.6B | 15.6B | 12.7B | 13.5B | 11.4B | 11.3B | 8.8B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +42.56% | +53.87% | +37.64% | +45.17% | +44.68% | +20.43% | +35.98% | +25.98% |
| Net Income | 6.6B | 5.6B | 5.7B | 2.8B | 4.4B | 970.3M | 3.0B | 2.2B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +50.48% | +475.34% | +90.78% | +23.02% | +101.39% | +1790.42% | +68.27% | +66.77% |
| EPS | $7.41 | $6.22 | $6.30 | $3.07 | $4.91 | $1.08 | $3.29 | $2.49 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +50.92% | +475.93% | +91.49% | +23.29% | +102.06% | +1885.12% | +76.88% | +75.35% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 85.05% | 82.91% | 84.27% | 82.53% | 82.24% | 81.02% | 80.80% | 80.91% |
| Operating Margin | 45.49% | 47.65% | 45.80% | 42.49% | 42.84% | 39.77% | 39.09% | 31.20% |
| Net Margin | 34.40% | 31.72% | 36.38% | 21.68% | 32.59% | 8.48% | 26.25% | 25.58% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 25.01% | 23.46% | 30.98% | 17.50% | 31.07% | 6.81% | 21.88% | 17.51% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 6.63% | 5.44% | 6.34% | 3.56% | 6.60% | 1.53% | 4.99% | 4.29% |
Technical Analysis
LLY is currently in a Stage 2 advancing phase, indicating an uptrend supported by institutional accumulation. The price is trading below the 50-day SMA but above the 150 and 200-day SMAs, with a weak trend momentum and neutral RSI suggesting consolidation and range-bound conditions in the short term.
No extreme reading
Mixed signals
Range-bound market
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Eli Lilly (LLY) continues to demonstrate exceptional financial and operational performance, maintaining industry-leading growth and profitability. Robust top- and bottom-line expansion is visible, particularly driven by innovation in diabetes and obesity drugs, positioning Lilly at the forefront of pharmaceutical growth stories. While valuation is rich, business momentum and execution remain strong.
Valuation
Eli Lilly (LLY) is currently trading at a premium relative to its peers, reflecting strong profitability, robust revenue growth, and investor confidence in its growth pipeline, especially in obesity and diabetes treatments. Despite high valuation multiples, analyst consensus is broadly positive with substantial upside potential priced in.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 36.36 | 30.65 | 30.91 | 67.20 | 39.28 | 205.67 | 69.41 | 76.36 |
| Price to Sales | 50.02 | 38.88 | 44.99 | 58.27 | 51.20 | 69.78 | 72.88 | 78.14 |
| Price to Book | 36.37 | 28.76 | 38.30 | 47.05 | 48.82 | 56.06 | 60.74 | 53.47 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 119.27 | 90.97 | 98.14 | 186.68 | 125.83 | 367.45 | 206.41 | 227.47 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 51.86 | 40.74 | 47.34 | 61.05 | 53.45 | 72.21 | 75.15 | 80.85 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Eli Lilly (LLY) currently enjoys a broadly positive market sentiment supported by strong 2026 sales guidance and solid performance of its GLP-1 drugs. While analyst consensus is bullish with strong buy and buy ratings dominating, retail sentiment is cautiously optimistic, tempered by valuation concerns and competitive pressures. Recent price target upgrades reflect confidence in growth catalysts such as orforglipron's anticipated launch and diversification beyond key franchises.
Analyst Recommendations
No analyst recommendations available.
Risk Assessment
Eli Lilly demonstrates robust liquidity and strong ability to meet short-term obligations, backed by improving ratios in recent quarters. However, elevated leverage and significant debt-to-equity levels introduce moderate financial risk, especially amid patent expirations and intense competition in key drug markets like GLP-1. Regulatory scrutiny and competitive pricing pressures add to execution risks, which investors should weigh against the company's strong earnings growth and pipeline potential.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.58 | 1.55 | 1.28 | 1.37 | 1.15 | 1.27 | 1.11 | 1.35 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.19 | 1.24 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 0.89 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 1.60 | 1.79 | 2.18 | 2.44 | 2.37 | 2.19 | 2.13 | 2.05 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.41 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.58(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 1.19(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 1.60(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.38(Moderate)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about LLY
AI Answers: Common Questions About LLY
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Eli Lilly and Company
LLY is a strong buy for long-term investors, supported by a P/E of 43.95 and industry-leading growth (FY2025 revenue up 44.7%, EPS up 96.1%). While the stock is consolidating below its 50-day SMA ($1052), its fundamentals and pipeline justify premium multiples. Consider accumulating on pullbacks or confirmed breakouts.
Unless your thesis has changed or you require liquidity, there is little reason to sell now. Fundamentals remain robust, with consistent earnings beats and expanding margins. Technicals suggest short-term consolidation, but no breakdown has occurred; long-term prospects remain intact.
The biggest risks are patent expirations for key drugs starting in 2026-2027, elevated debt-to-equity (1.6), and competitive threats from Novo Nordisk in GLP-1. Regulatory scrutiny and pricing pressures could also impact margins, but liquidity ratios (current ratio ~1.6, quick ratio ~1.19) and interest coverage (71x) mitigate near-term financial risk.
Key resistance is at $1052 (50-day SMA) and $1134 (52-week high); support is at $912 (150-day SMA) and $877 (200-day SMA). Analyst price targets range up to $1,500, reflecting confidence in continued growth and pipeline execution.
LLY is fairly valued relative to its growth, trading at a P/E of 43.95 and EV/EBITDA multiples about double sector averages. The premium is justified by superior revenue and earnings growth, but leaves little room for disappointment.
LLY's fundamentals are outstanding: gross margin >85%, operating margin >45%, and FY2025 revenue/EPS growth of 44.7%/96.1%. Earnings quality is high, with strong cash flow and no material non-recurring items distorting results.
Technically, LLY is consolidating below the 50-day SMA ($1052) with neutral RSI (44.79) and weak momentum (ADX 8.16). No clear breakout is present; traders should watch for a move above $1052 or a pullback to $912 for entry.
Key catalysts include the FDA decision and launch of orforglipron, continued strong GLP-1 sales, and upcoming earnings reports. Regulatory approvals and new product launches in 2026 could drive further upside.
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