LLY AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Fundamentals
Eli Lilly (LLY) maintains a robust financial profile with strong top-line growth and improving margins supported by its pharmaceutical innovation and operational efficiency. The company consistently beats earnings and revenue estimates, reflecting solid execution and underlying demand. Challenges include regulatory risk and high valuation multiples, but its strong R&D and leading drug pipeline position it well for sustained growth.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
55.55% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
168.04% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.8B | 19.3B | 17.6B | 15.6B | 12.7B | 13.5B | 11.4B | 11.3B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +55.55% | +42.56% | +53.87% | +37.64% | +45.17% | +44.68% | +20.43% | +35.98% |
| Net Income | 7.4B | 6.6B | 5.6B | 5.7B | 2.8B | 4.4B | 970.3M | 3.0B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +168.04% | +50.48% | +475.34% | +90.78% | +23.02% | +101.39% | +1790.42% | +68.27% |
| EPS | $8.27 | $7.41 | $6.22 | $6.30 | $3.07 | $4.91 | $1.08 | $3.29 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +169.38% | +50.92% | +475.93% | +91.49% | +23.29% | +102.06% | +1885.12% | +76.88% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
Eli Lilly (LLY) is currently in a strong advancing phase with price above critical moving averages and a recent golden cross indicating bullishness. However, momentum indicators such as RSI and ADX show neutral to weak strength, suggesting possible range-bound behavior near key resistance levels. The stock is testing important resistance around $1235, with support near $1100 providing a solid base for trend continuation or consolidation.
No extreme reading
Mixed signals
Range-bound market
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Eli Lilly (LLY) maintains a robust financial profile with strong top-line growth and improving margins supported by its pharmaceutical innovation and operational efficiency. The company consistently beats earnings and revenue estimates, reflecting solid execution and underlying demand. Challenges include regulatory risk and high valuation multiples, but its strong R&D and leading drug pipeline position it well for sustained growth.
Latest Earnings
Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$8.55
Estimated
$6.97
Surprise
+$1.58
Surprise %
+22.67%
Revenue
Actual
$19.8B
Estimated
$17.82B
Surprise
+$1.98B
Surprise %
+11.11%
Historical Earnings
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $8.55 | $7.54 | $7.02 | $6.31 | $3.34 | $5.32 | $1.18 | $3.92 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $6.97 | $6.91 | $5.69 | $5.60 | $3.26 | $5.03 | $1.47 | $2.60 |
| EPS Surprise | +$1.58 | +$0.63 | +$1.33 | +$0.71 | +$0.08 | +$0.29 | -$0.29 | +$1.32 |
| % Diff | +22.7% | +9.1% | +23.4% | +12.7% | +2.5% | +5.8% | -19.7% | +50.8% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $19.8B | $19.29B | $17.6B | $15.56B | $12.73B | $13.53B | $11.44B | $11.3B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $17.82B | $17.94B | $16.05B | $14.7B | $12.67B | - | $12.1B | $9.98B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$1.98B | +$1.35B | +$1.55B | +$853.57M | +$61.12M | - | -$658.68M | +$1.32B |
| % Diff | +11.1% | +7.5% | +9.6% | +5.8% | +0.5% | - | -5.4% | +13.2% |
Valuation
Eli Lilly exhibits a strong financial and operational profile with robust revenue and earnings growth driven by its leading pharmaceutical products. Valuation metrics indicate a premium stance relative to healthcare peers, justified by superior profitability and growth prospects, especially in the GLP-1 drug market. Analyst sentiment remains bullish with a consensus buy rating and price targets suggesting moderate upside potential.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 27.80 | 36.26 | 30.67 | 30.93 | 67.26 | 39.31 | 205.08 | 69.48 |
| Price to Sales | 41.55 | 50.02 | 38.88 | 44.99 | 58.27 | 51.20 | 69.78 | 72.88 |
| Price to Book | 26.37 | 36.37 | 28.76 | 38.30 | 47.05 | 48.82 | 56.06 | 60.74 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 88.83 | 119.27 | 90.97 | 98.14 | 186.68 | 125.83 | 367.45 | 206.41 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 43.48 | 51.86 | 40.74 | 47.34 | 61.05 | 53.45 | 72.21 | 75.15 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Market sentiment around Eli Lilly (LLY) is broadly positive, driven by strong clinical trial data for its obesity drug retatrutide and robust performance from its GLP-1 franchise. Investors remain optimistic about the company's growth prospects, supported by expected strong Q2 earnings this week and strategic expansions including a $2.8 billion acquisition and manufacturing investments. However, some headwinds from delayed FDA filings, ongoing litigation, and insider selling temper enthusiasm, resulting in mixed technical signals and cautious near-term outlook from certain analysts.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Eli Lilly exhibits a moderate financial risk profile with solid liquidity and manageable debt levels, supported by strong cash flows reflected in their healthy interest coverage. However, the company's heavy reliance on a few blockbuster drugs alongside regulatory and pricing pressures introduces notable execution and market risks. Despite a premium valuation, the market environment and competitive landscape pose ongoing challenges that investors should weigh carefully.
Liquidity & Solvency
Frequently Asked Questions about LLY
AI Answers: Common Questions About LLY
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Eli Lilly and Company
Yes, Eli Lilly is a good buy for medium to long-term investors given its strong revenue growth (50% increase from 2023 to 2025), expanding margins (gross margin above 81.9%, operating margin near 45%), and robust pipeline. The current P/E of 39 reflects growth expectations but is justified by earnings quality.
No immediate reason to sell unless regulatory setbacks, significant pipeline failures, or a breakdown below key technical support at $1100 occur. Short-term traders may consider holding due to neutral momentum and resistance near $1235.
Key risks include regulatory and pricing pressures, reliance on a few blockbuster drugs, competition from Novo Nordisk and others, legal challenges, and valuation sensitivity to market sentiment and pipeline execution.
Analyst consensus price targets average around $1,283, implying approximately 12% upside from the current price of $1,148.50, with technical resistance near $1,235 and support at $1,100.
LLY trades at a premium valuation with a P/E ratio of 39.04 and high EV/EBITDA, reflecting strong growth and profitability. The valuation is fairly valued relative to peers given its superior margins and growth but requires monitoring for regulatory or competitive risks.
Fundamentals are strong with revenues growing from $34.1B in 2023 to $65.2B in 2025, EPS rising from $5.83 to $23 forecasted, and margins expanding steadily. The company benefits from a diversified portfolio and leading R&D capabilities.
Technically, LLY is in a bullish uptrend with price above 50- and 200-day SMAs and a golden cross. Momentum indicators are neutral, suggesting possible short-term consolidation near resistance at $1,235 with support at $1,100.
Upcoming catalysts include Q2 2026 earnings expected August 5th, FDA approvals for pipeline drugs like retatrutide, and strategic growth initiatives including acquisitions and manufacturing expansions.
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