LMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Lockheed Martin (LMT) offers stable long-term prospects backed by strong defense demand, robust backlog, and industry leadership, but faces near-term margin pressures and is fairly valued at current levels. Technicals show consolidation with no clear breakout, and sentiment is mixed but slightly positive. Investors should expect steady, but not spectacular, returns while monitoring for margin stabilization and execution on key programs.
Fundamentals
Lockheed Martin (LMT) demonstrates solid financial fundamentals, characterized by robust revenue growth and stable, if somewhat pressured, profitability metrics. Recent quarters show fluctuating margins but consistent top-line expansion, supported by a resilient government defense demand backdrop. While earnings execution in the latest quarter disappointed, the company’s overall multi-year growth and competitive positioning remain strong.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
9.17% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
155.03% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.3B | 18.6B | 18.2B | 18.0B | 18.6B | 17.1B | 18.1B | 17.2B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +9.17% | +8.80% | +0.18% | +4.47% | -1.34% | +1.34% | +8.56% | +13.68% |
| Net Income | 1.3B | 1.6B | 342.0M | 1.7B | 527.0M | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.5B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +155.03% | -0.25% | -79.16% | +10.81% | -71.76% | -3.62% | -2.38% | -8.53% |
| EPS | $5.82 | $6.98 | $1.46 | $7.30 | $2.23 | $6.83 | $6.87 | $6.42 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +160.99% | +2.20% | -78.75% | +13.71% | -70.70% | +1.19% | +3.31% | -3.17% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 11.42% | 12.04% | 4.04% | 12.93% | 3.71% | 12.38% | 12.23% | 11.59% |
| Operating Margin | 11.47% | 12.25% | 4.12% | 13.20% | 3.74% | 12.51% | 11.85% | 11.80% |
| Net Margin | 6.61% | 8.70% | 1.88% | 9.53% | 2.83% | 9.49% | 9.06% | 8.99% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 20.00% | 26.19% | 6.41% | 25.62% | 8.32% | 22.54% | 26.57% | 23.23% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 2.88% | 3.44% | 0.75% | 3.92% | 1.24% | 3.80% | 3.88% | 3.68% |
Technical Analysis
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is currently in a technical consolidation with a mixed but generally constructive outlook. The stock is in a Stage 2 advancing phase supported by a golden cross, although momentum indicators show neutral to weak trend signals. Key support around $608-$618 is holding, while resistance near $644-$672 caps upside, indicating a range-bound trading environment awaiting a breakout.
No extreme reading
Mixed signals
Range-bound market
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Lockheed Martin (LMT) demonstrates solid financial fundamentals, characterized by robust revenue growth and stable, if somewhat pressured, profitability metrics. Recent quarters show fluctuating margins but consistent top-line expansion, supported by a resilient government defense demand backdrop. While earnings execution in the latest quarter disappointed, the company’s overall multi-year growth and competitive positioning remain strong.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$5.80
Estimated
$7.07
Surprise
$-1.27
Surprise %
-17.96%
Revenue
Actual
$20.32B
Estimated
$18.72B
Surprise
+$1.6B
Surprise %
+8.56%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $5.80 | $6.95 | $7.29 | $7.28 | $7.67 | $6.80 | $6.85 | $6.39 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $7.07 | $6.38 | $6.52 | $6.34 | $6.62 | $6.50 | $6.46 | $5.82 |
| EPS Surprise | -$1.27 | +$0.57 | +$0.77 | +$0.94 | +$1.05 | +$0.30 | +$0.39 | +$0.57 |
| % Diff | -18.0% | +8.9% | +11.8% | +14.8% | +15.9% | +4.6% | +6.0% | +9.8% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $20.32B | $18.61B | $18.16B | $17.96B | $18.62B | $17.1B | $18.12B | $17.2B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $18.72B | $18.55B | $18.57B | $17.78B | $18.87B | $17.38B | $17.04B | $16.04B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$1.6B | +$56.01M | -$415.42M | +$185.3M | -$246.26M | -$274.53M | +$1.08B | +$1.16B |
| % Diff | +8.6% | +0.3% | -2.2% | +1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | +6.4% | +7.2% |
Valuation
Lockheed Martin exhibits strong financial health with stable revenue growth and robust profitability metrics, though earnings growth has slightly contracted recently. Valuation multiples position the stock slightly above the sector median P/E but reflect its premium business model and solid return on equity. Analyst consensus tilts toward a Hold with moderate upside potential near current prices based on fair value estimates.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 20.77 | 17.62 | 79.05 | 15.29 | 54.40 | 21.39 | 16.98 | 17.64 |
| Price to Sales | 5.49 | 6.13 | 5.96 | 5.83 | 6.16 | 8.12 | 6.15 | 6.34 |
| Price to Book | 16.62 | 18.46 | 20.27 | 15.67 | 18.11 | 19.28 | 18.05 | 16.39 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 56.59 | 50.08 | 117.88 | 45.62 | 106.66 | 60.45 | 49.91 | 51.46 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 6.36 | 7.14 | 7.08 | 6.86 | 7.11 | 9.06 | 7.07 | 7.31 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Lockheed Martin's market sentiment in April 2026 is mixed to moderately positive, fueled by significant contract wins and robust backlog growth, albeit tempered by some cautious analyst stance and recent price pullback. Investor optimism is driven by strong defense demand amid geopolitical tensions, while analysts remain diverse in their outlooks, with a majority holding neutral positions.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Lockheed Martin exhibits moderate financial risk characterized by solid, though slightly stretched, liquidity and elevated leverage. The company's heavy reliance on government contracts and exposure to operational and geopolitical risks are balanced by a significant contract backlog and sustained governmental defense spending. Valuation metrics indicate a premium pricing that may temper upside potential while operational challenges and supply chain fragility pose near-term risks.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.09 | 1.13 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.11 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 3.23 | 3.59 | 4.06 | 3.04 | 3.20 | 2.68 | 3.12 | 2.92 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.09(Adequate)
Quick Ratio: 0.94(Adequate)
The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 3.23(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.36(Moderate)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about LMT
AI Answers: Common Questions About LMT
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Lockheed Martin Corporation
LMT is fairly valued at a P/E of 28.56, with price at $613.72 near key support and below its 52-week high ($692). While fundamentals are strong and backlog robust, margin pressures and a lack of technical breakout suggest it's not a compelling buy right now unless margin trends improve or the stock breaks above $644 with volume.
Unless your thesis has changed or you are concerned about near-term margin risks, there is no strong reason to sell. Fundamentals remain solid and technicals do not indicate a breakdown; however, if LMT falls below $598 support or margin trends worsen, consider reducing exposure.
Key risks include margin contraction (net margin down to 6.7% in 2025), high leverage (debt-to-equity >3.2), and reliance on government contracts (72% of sales). Liquidity is moderate (current ratio just above 1), so any operational or budgetary shocks could pressure the stock.
Upside resistance is at $644, $661, and $672-$677; downside support is at $608, $598, and $483. Analyst price targets range from $517 to $756, reflecting uncertainty. Near-term, expect range-bound trading unless a breakout above $644 or breakdown below $598 occurs.
LMT is trading at a slight premium to sector averages (P/E 28.56, high ROE >38%), justified by its backlog and market position. Valorem assesses it as FAIRLY_VALUED, with current multiples reflecting both business quality and margin risks.
Fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 5.7% YoY to $75.06B, but EPS declined 3.7% and margins compressed (gross margin 10.2%, net margin 6.7%). Backlog and recurring contracts provide stability, but watch for further margin erosion.
Technicals show consolidation with price near support ($608-$618), RSI neutral at 44, and no strong momentum (ADX <20). A breakout above $644 would be bullish, while a breakdown below $598 would be bearish; for now, the outlook is neutral.
Key catalysts include upcoming Q1 2026 earnings, new major contract awards (especially in missile defense and space), and geopolitical events that could spur defense spending. Margin recovery or positive guidance could also drive upside.
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