LMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is fundamentally strong with robust cash flows and a dominant defense market position, but faces near-term earnings and margin pressures, a bearish technical setup, and mixed sentiment. The stock is fairly valued relative to peers, and while downside appears limited by its backlog and government contracts, upside is constrained without new catalysts. Investors should expect muted performance in the coming months, with long-term prospects hinging on operational improvements and potential geopolitical tailwinds.
Fundamentals
Lockheed Martin (LMT) presents a fundamentally solid profile with consistent profitability, robust cash generation, and market leadership in defense. However, recent quarterly results show softening revenue growth and slight margin compression, placing the valuation under scrutiny given current premium multiples. While the business remains resilient, near-term upside potential may be limited unless growth re-accelerates or geopolitical dynamics shift markedly.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
0.32% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
-13.08% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18.0B | 20.3B | 18.6B | 18.2B | 18.0B | 18.6B | 17.1B | 18.1B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +0.32% | +9.17% | +8.80% | +0.18% | +4.47% | -1.34% | +1.34% | +8.56% |
| Net Income | 1.5B | 1.3B | 1.6B | 342.0M | 1.7B | 527.0M | 1.6B | 1.6B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -13.08% | +155.03% | -0.25% | -79.16% | +10.81% | -71.76% | -3.62% | -2.38% |
| EPS | $6.47 | $5.82 | $6.98 | $1.46 | $7.30 | $2.23 | $6.83 | $6.87 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -11.37% | +160.99% | +2.20% | -78.75% | +13.71% | -70.70% | +1.19% | +3.31% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 11.53% | 11.42% | 12.04% | 4.04% | 12.93% | 3.71% | 12.38% | 12.23% |
| Operating Margin | 11.45% | 11.47% | 12.25% | 4.12% | 13.20% | 3.74% | 12.51% | 11.85% |
| Net Margin | 8.26% | 6.61% | 8.70% | 1.88% | 9.53% | 2.83% | 9.49% | 9.06% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 19.87% | 20.00% | 26.19% | 6.41% | 25.62% | 8.32% | 22.54% | 26.57% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 3.23% | 2.88% | 3.44% | 0.75% | 3.92% | 1.24% | 3.80% | 3.88% |
Technical Analysis
LMT is currently in a bearish downtrend as price trades below the key moving averages, despite a recent bullish RSI signal in oversold territory suggesting a potential short-term rebound. The stock is in a topping phase with strong trend momentum indicated by ADX but showing early signs of distribution and volatility increase.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Strong trend active
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Lockheed Martin (LMT) presents a fundamentally solid profile with consistent profitability, robust cash generation, and market leadership in defense. However, recent quarterly results show softening revenue growth and slight margin compression, placing the valuation under scrutiny given current premium multiples. While the business remains resilient, near-term upside potential may be limited unless growth re-accelerates or geopolitical dynamics shift markedly.
Latest Earnings
Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 29, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$6.44
Estimated
$6.74
Surprise
$-0.30
Surprise %
-4.45%
Revenue
Actual
$18.02B
Estimated
$18.22B
Surprise
-$200.75M
Surprise %
-1.10%
Historical Earnings
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $6.44 | $5.80 | $6.95 | $7.29 | $7.28 | $7.67 | $6.80 | $6.85 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $6.74 | $7.07 | $6.38 | $6.52 | $6.34 | $6.62 | $6.50 | $6.46 |
| EPS Surprise | -$0.30 | -$1.27 | +$0.57 | +$0.77 | +$0.94 | +$1.05 | +$0.30 | +$0.39 |
| % Diff | -4.5% | -18.0% | +8.9% | +11.8% | +14.8% | +15.9% | +4.6% | +6.0% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $18.02B | $20.32B | $18.61B | $18.16B | $17.96B | $18.62B | $17.1B | $18.12B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $18.22B | $18.72B | $18.55B | $18.57B | $17.78B | $18.87B | $17.38B | $17.04B |
| Revenue Surprise | -$200.75M | +$1.6B | +$56.01M | -$415.42M | +$185.3M | -$246.26M | -$274.53M | +$1.08B |
| % Diff | -1.1% | +8.6% | +0.3% | -2.2% | +1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | +6.4% |
Valuation
Lockheed Martin (LMT) currently trades at a valuation below its aerospace and defense sector peers, reflecting a cautious but stable market stance. The company's earnings and revenue growth have been modest with some recent earnings miss impacting sentiment, yet solid profitability and strong return on equity support its valuation. Analysts maintain mostly a Hold consensus with a moderate upside price target signaling fair value with room for appreciation.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 23.12 | 20.77 | 17.62 | 79.05 | 15.29 | 54.40 | 21.39 | 16.98 |
| Price to Sales | 7.64 | 5.49 | 6.13 | 5.96 | 5.83 | 6.16 | 8.12 | 6.15 |
| Price to Book | 18.38 | 16.62 | 18.46 | 20.27 | 15.67 | 18.11 | 19.28 | 18.05 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 75.82 | 56.59 | 50.08 | 117.88 | 45.62 | 106.66 | 60.45 | 49.91 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 8.68 | 6.36 | 7.14 | 7.08 | 6.86 | 7.11 | 9.06 | 7.07 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Lockheed Martin's market sentiment is currently mixed with a prevailing hold analyst consensus and cautious investor outlook due to recent Q1 earnings misses and operational challenges in its Aeronautics segment. Despite these headwinds, the company maintains solid full-year guidance and benefits from significant contract wins and ongoing AI initiatives, which underpin a moderate upside potential in price targets.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Lockheed Martin presents a moderate-to-high investment risk profile driven by significant execution and supply chain challenges, particularly within its highly concentrated U.S. government-dependent business. While the company maintains strong backlog and revenue visibility, recent earnings misses and margin pressures highlight operational vulnerabilities. Investor sentiment is mixed with cautious analyst consensus, reflecting both the strategic defense importance and execution uncertainties.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.14 | 1.09 | 1.13 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 1.12 | 1.07 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 2.76 | 3.23 | 3.59 | 4.06 | 3.04 | 3.20 | 2.68 | 3.12 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.14(Adequate)
Quick Ratio: 0.94(Adequate)
The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 2.76(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.35(Moderate)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about LMT
AI Answers: Common Questions About LMT
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Lockheed Martin Corporation
LMT is not a strong buy at current levels given its P/E of 24.53 (below sector average but not cheap), recent earnings misses, and bearish technicals. While long-term fundamentals are solid, the stock is in a downtrend and faces margin pressures, so waiting for stabilization or a clearer catalyst is prudent.
Unless your thesis has changed or you need to reduce risk, selling is not urgent: fundamentals remain solid and valuation is fair, but short-term technicals are weak. If LMT breaks below $505 support or operational results deteriorate further, consider reducing exposure.
Key risks include execution and supply chain issues (notably in Aeronautics), high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of ~2.76, and moderate liquidity (current ratio ~1.14, quick ratio ~0.94). Heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts (72% of revenue) and the F-35 program adds concentration risk.
Technical resistance is near $600-$620, with support at $505 and major support at $410. Analyst consensus targets suggest 18-24% upside from current levels, but near-term price action is likely to remain range-bound unless new catalysts emerge.
LMT is fairly valued: its P/E of 24.53 is below sector average, price-to-sales and price-to-book are elevated but justified by strong cash flows and backlog. EV/EBITDA is somewhat high due to recent volatility but normalizes near sector averages.
Fundamentals remain strong with consistent profitability, robust free cash flow, and a dominant market position. However, revenue growth has slowed (3.2% YoY in Q1 2026), EPS is down 3.7% YoY, and margins have compressed (gross margin ~11.5%, net margin just over 8%).
Technically, LMT is in a bearish downtrend below all major moving averages, with RSI oversold at ~26 and price testing support near $505. No bullish reversal is confirmed; risk of further downside toward $410 exists if support fails.
Watch for upcoming earnings reports, major new contract announcements (especially international), U.S. defense budget developments, and signs of operational/margin improvement. Leadership changes and AI/technology initiatives could also influence sentiment.
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