LMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

$655.00-9.48 (-1.43%) today

Open
$662.10
High
$663.00
Low
$647.23
Volume
1.72M
Mkt Cap
$151.57B
52W High
$692.00
AI Verdict
Confidence 90%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Lockheed Martin (LMT) is fundamentally strong with sector leadership, robust cash flows, and a record backlog, but faces near-term margin pressure and trades at elevated valuation multiples. Technical momentum is bullish, but sentiment and analyst targets suggest the stock is fairly valued with limited immediate upside. The risk/reward is balanced, making LMT a solid hold for most investors, with better entry points likely on pullbacks or after margin stabilization.

By Timeframe
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Short
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Medium
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Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Lockheed Martin (LMT) demonstrates robust fundamentals, underpinned by strong revenue growth and industry leadership in aerospace and defense. While LMT's margins have come under some pressure, consistent top-line performance and a healthy backlog support a long-term positive outlook, despite a recent earnings miss and valuation that's elevated relative to historical norms.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$5.5B$11.0B$16.5B$22.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)0%3%6%9%12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$20.33B

9.17% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$1.34B

155.03% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

6.61%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

9.17%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

155.03%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

11.58%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

160.99%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

8.47%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue20.3B18.6B18.2B18.0B18.6B17.1B18.1B17.2B
Revenue Growth YoY+9.17%+8.80%+0.18%+4.47%-1.34%+1.34%+8.56%+13.68%
Net Income1.3B1.6B342.0M1.7B527.0M1.6B1.6B1.5B
Net Income Growth YoY+155.03%-0.25%-79.16%+10.81%-71.76%-3.62%-2.38%-8.53%
EPS$5.82$6.98$1.46$7.30$2.23$6.83$6.87$6.42
EPS Growth YoY+160.99%+2.20%-78.75%+13.71%-70.70%+1.19%+3.31%-3.17%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

11.42%

TTM

Operating Margin

11.47%

TTM

Net Margin

6.61%

TTM

Return on Equity

80.53%

TTM

Return on Assets

10.76%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin11.42%12.04%4.04%12.93%3.71%12.38%12.23%11.59%
Operating Margin11.47%12.25%4.12%13.20%3.74%12.51%11.85%11.80%
Net Margin6.61%8.70%1.88%9.53%2.83%9.49%9.06%8.99%
Return on Equity (ROE)20.00%26.19%6.41%25.62%8.32%22.54%26.57%23.23%
Return on Assets (ROA)2.88%3.44%0.75%3.92%1.24%3.80%3.88%3.68%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

LMT is currently in a strong uptrend with price well above key moving averages and a confirmed golden cross. Momentum remains positive as the ADX signals a robust trend, and RSI resides in a neutral zone, indicating room for further upside. The stock is in an advancing phase with institutional accumulation, supporting bullish technical conviction.

RSI
Hold
Neutral58

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+31.6% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend41

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$655.00
50 SMA
$591.03
150 SMA
$509.09
200 SMA
$497.55
52W High
$692.00
52W Low
$410.11

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
58Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Lockheed Martin (LMT) demonstrates robust fundamentals, underpinned by strong revenue growth and industry leadership in aerospace and defense. While LMT's margins have come under some pressure, consistent top-line performance and a healthy backlog support a long-term positive outlook, despite a recent earnings miss and valuation that's elevated relative to historical norms.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$5.80

Estimated

$7.07

Surprise

$-1.27

Surprise %

-17.96%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$20.33B

Estimated

$18.72B

Surprise

+$1.61B

Surprise %

+8.61%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$5.80$6.95$7.29$7.28$7.67$6.80$6.85$6.39
EPS (Estimated)$7.07$6.38$6.52$6.34$6.62$6.50$6.46$5.82
EPS Surprise-$1.27+$0.57+$0.77+$0.94+$1.05+$0.30+$0.39+$0.57
% Diff-18.0%+8.9%+11.8%+14.8%+15.9%+4.6%+6.0%+9.8%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$20.33B$18.61B$18.16B$17.96B$18.62B$17.1B$18.12B$17.2B
Revenue (Estimated)$18.72B$18.55B$18.57B$17.78B$18.87B$17.38B$17.04B$16.04B
Revenue Surprise+$1.61B+$56.01M-$415.42M+$185.3M-$246.26M-$274.53M+$1.08B+$1.16B
% Diff+8.6%+0.3%-2.2%+1.0%-1.3%-1.6%+6.4%+7.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Lockheed Martin's valuation reflects a premium position compared to its own historical averages but remains somewhat conservative relative to the broader Aerospace & Defense sector's elevated multiples. The company's solid financial health, strong profitability metrics, and consistent revenue growth underpin its valuation, while analyst consensus signals a cautious hold stance with price targets spanning a wide range. Despite near-term challenges, Lockheed benefits from its robust market position and steady free cash flow generation, justifying a measured investment approach.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

30.15

TTM

Price to Sales

2.02

TTM

Price to Book

22.50

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

19.38

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

2.25

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings20.7717.6279.0515.2954.4021.3916.9817.64
Price to Sales5.496.135.965.836.168.126.156.34
Price to Book16.6218.4620.2715.6718.1119.2818.0516.39
Enterprise Value to EBITDA56.5950.08117.8845.62106.6660.4549.9151.46
Enterprise Value to Revenue6.367.147.086.867.119.067.077.31

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Lockheed Martin's market sentiment is predominantly positive driven by strong financial performance, a record backlog, and favorable geopolitical developments increasing defense demand. However, some caution persists due to concerns about valuation levels, supply chain constraints, and recent earnings misses, leading to a mixed investor mood. Analyst consensus leans toward a cautious hold with price targets below current levels, reflecting balanced optimism and risk awareness.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.3 / 5.0
Based on 21 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
14
Buy
5
Strong Buy
1

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Lockheed Martin exhibits moderate liquidity but carries a notably high leverage profile, indicative of reliance on debt financing. Its dominant revenue stream from U.S. government contracts presents both a stable income source and concentration risk, while ongoing supply chain and program execution challenges add to operational risks. Valuation metrics suggest the stock trades near peak multiples, which may temper incremental upside from an investor perspective.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.09

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.94

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

3.23

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.36

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.091.130.981.081.131.301.241.30
Quick Ratio0.940.970.830.910.951.121.071.11
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity3.233.594.063.043.202.683.122.92
Debt-to-Assets0.360.370.370.360.360.350.350.35

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.09(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 0.94(Adequate)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 3.23(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.36(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about LMT

AI Answers: Common Questions About LMT

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Lockheed Martin Corporation

LMT is not a compelling buy right now given its P/E of 31.03 (above historical norms), price near 52-week highs ($667.82 vs. $692 high), and analyst targets ($612.50) below current price. While fundamentals are strong, margin pressure and valuation suggest waiting for a pullback or margin improvement before buying.

There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own LMT, as the long-term outlook remains positive and technicals are still bullish. However, with valuation stretched and recent earnings volatility, trimming or holding is prudent unless the stock breaks down below key support levels ($584).

Key risks include high leverage (debt-to-equity > 3), margin compression (net margin down to 6.7%), and heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts (72% of sales). Additional risks are supply chain pressures, potential defense budget cuts, and execution delays on major programs.

Technical resistance is at $692 (52-week high) and $700 (psychological), with support at $584 and $506. Analyst consensus target is $612.50, suggesting limited upside and some downside risk from current levels.

LMT is fairly valued to slightly overvalued: P/E is 31.03 (above its historical range), EV/EBITDA is elevated, but P/S is below sector averages. The premium is justified by backlog and cash flows, but not enough to warrant aggressive buying at current prices.

LMT's fundamentals are strong with 5.6% YoY revenue growth, a record $194B backlog, and recurring government contracts, but profitability has declined (net margin 6.7%, down from 10.2%) and leverage is high. Earnings quality remains solid, but near-term cost control is a concern.

Technically, LMT is in a strong uptrend above all major moving averages, with a golden cross and RSI at 64.2 (neutral). Immediate resistance is at $692 and $700, with support at $584 and $506; a breakout above resistance could trigger further upside, but buying at these levels carries risk of a pullback.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (focus on margin recovery), potential new contract wins, geopolitical events increasing defense spending, and successful cost control initiatives. Watch for a breakout above $692/$700 or signs of margin stabilization for renewed upside.

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