LMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

$521.00+8.75 (+1.71%) today

Open
$512.50
High
$522.50
Low
$512.50
Volume
976.45K
Mkt Cap
$120.12B
52W High
$692.00
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Lockheed Martin (LMT) is fundamentally strong with robust cash flows and a dominant defense market position, but faces near-term earnings and margin pressures, a bearish technical setup, and mixed sentiment. The stock is fairly valued relative to peers, and while downside appears limited by its backlog and government contracts, upside is constrained without new catalysts. Investors should expect muted performance in the coming months, with long-term prospects hinging on operational improvements and potential geopolitical tailwinds.

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Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Lockheed Martin (LMT) presents a fundamentally solid profile with consistent profitability, robust cash generation, and market leadership in defense. However, recent quarterly results show softening revenue growth and slight margin compression, placing the valuation under scrutiny given current premium multiples. While the business remains resilient, near-term upside potential may be limited unless growth re-accelerates or geopolitical dynamics shift markedly.

Financial Highlights

Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026$0$5.5B$11.0B$16.5B$22.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)0%3%6%9%12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$18.02B

0.32% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Income

$1.49B

-13.08% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Margin

8.26%

Q1 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

0.32%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

-13.08%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

2.29%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

EPS Growth YoY

-11.37%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

14.25%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Revenue18.0B20.3B18.6B18.2B18.0B18.6B17.1B18.1B
Revenue Growth YoY+0.32%+9.17%+8.80%+0.18%+4.47%-1.34%+1.34%+8.56%
Net Income1.5B1.3B1.6B342.0M1.7B527.0M1.6B1.6B
Net Income Growth YoY-13.08%+155.03%-0.25%-79.16%+10.81%-71.76%-3.62%-2.38%
EPS$6.47$5.82$6.98$1.46$7.30$2.23$6.83$6.87
EPS Growth YoY-11.37%+160.99%+2.20%-78.75%+13.71%-70.70%+1.19%+3.31%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

11.53%

TTM

Operating Margin

11.45%

TTM

Net Margin

8.26%

TTM

Return on Equity

74.53%

TTM

Return on Assets

10.40%

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Gross Margin11.53%11.42%12.04%4.04%12.93%3.71%12.38%12.23%
Operating Margin11.45%11.47%12.25%4.12%13.20%3.74%12.51%11.85%
Net Margin8.26%6.61%8.70%1.88%9.53%2.83%9.49%9.06%
Return on Equity (ROE)19.87%20.00%26.19%6.41%25.62%8.32%22.54%26.57%
Return on Assets (ROA)3.23%2.88%3.44%0.75%3.92%1.24%3.80%3.88%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

LMT is currently in a bearish downtrend as price trades below the key moving averages, despite a recent bullish RSI signal in oversold territory suggesting a potential short-term rebound. The stock is in a topping phase with strong trend momentum indicated by ADX but showing early signs of distribution and volatility increase.

RSI
Hold
Neutral36

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-1.1% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend48

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Hold
Golden Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$521.00
50 SMA
$594.68
150 SMA
$550.09
200 SMA
$526.85
52W High
$692.00
52W Low
$410.11

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
36Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Lockheed Martin (LMT) presents a fundamentally solid profile with consistent profitability, robust cash generation, and market leadership in defense. However, recent quarterly results show softening revenue growth and slight margin compression, placing the valuation under scrutiny given current premium multiples. While the business remains resilient, near-term upside potential may be limited unless growth re-accelerates or geopolitical dynamics shift markedly.

Latest Earnings

Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 29, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$6.44

Estimated

$6.74

Surprise

$-0.30

Surprise %

-4.45%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$18.02B

Estimated

$18.22B

Surprise

-$200.75M

Surprise %

-1.10%

Historical Earnings

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$6.44$5.80$6.95$7.29$7.28$7.67$6.80$6.85
EPS (Estimated)$6.74$7.07$6.38$6.52$6.34$6.62$6.50$6.46
EPS Surprise-$0.30-$1.27+$0.57+$0.77+$0.94+$1.05+$0.30+$0.39
% Diff-4.5%-18.0%+8.9%+11.8%+14.8%+15.9%+4.6%+6.0%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$18.02B$20.32B$18.61B$18.16B$17.96B$18.62B$17.1B$18.12B
Revenue (Estimated)$18.22B$18.72B$18.55B$18.57B$17.78B$18.87B$17.38B$17.04B
Revenue Surprise-$200.75M+$1.6B+$56.01M-$415.42M+$185.3M-$246.26M-$274.53M+$1.08B
% Diff-1.1%+8.6%+0.3%-2.2%+1.0%-1.3%-1.6%+6.4%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Lockheed Martin (LMT) currently trades at a valuation below its aerospace and defense sector peers, reflecting a cautious but stable market stance. The company's earnings and revenue growth have been modest with some recent earnings miss impacting sentiment, yet solid profitability and strong return on equity support its valuation. Analysts maintain mostly a Hold consensus with a moderate upside price target signaling fair value with room for appreciation.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

24.99

TTM

Price to Sales

1.60

TTM

Price to Book

15.99

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

17.17

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.85

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Price to Earnings23.1220.7717.6279.0515.2954.4021.3916.98
Price to Sales7.645.496.135.965.836.168.126.15
Price to Book18.3816.6218.4620.2715.6718.1119.2818.05
Enterprise Value to EBITDA75.8256.5950.08117.8845.62106.6660.4549.91
Enterprise Value to Revenue8.686.367.147.086.867.119.067.07

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Lockheed Martin's market sentiment is currently mixed with a prevailing hold analyst consensus and cautious investor outlook due to recent Q1 earnings misses and operational challenges in its Aeronautics segment. Despite these headwinds, the company maintains solid full-year guidance and benefits from significant contract wins and ongoing AI initiatives, which underpin a moderate upside potential in price targets.

Analyst Recommendations

As of May 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.4 / 5.0
Based on 22 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
14
Buy
5
Strong Buy
2

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Lockheed Martin presents a moderate-to-high investment risk profile driven by significant execution and supply chain challenges, particularly within its highly concentrated U.S. government-dependent business. While the company maintains strong backlog and revenue visibility, recent earnings misses and margin pressures highlight operational vulnerabilities. Investor sentiment is mixed with cautious analyst consensus, reflecting both the strategic defense importance and execution uncertainties.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.14

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Quick Ratio

0.94

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Debt-to-Equity

2.76

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Debt-to-Assets

0.35

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.141.091.130.981.081.131.301.24
Quick Ratio0.940.940.970.830.910.951.121.07
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity2.763.233.594.063.043.202.683.12
Debt-to-Assets0.350.360.370.370.360.360.350.35

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.14(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 0.94(Adequate)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 2.76(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.35(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about LMT

AI Answers: Common Questions About LMT

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Lockheed Martin Corporation

LMT is not a strong buy at current levels given its P/E of 24.53 (below sector average but not cheap), recent earnings misses, and bearish technicals. While long-term fundamentals are solid, the stock is in a downtrend and faces margin pressures, so waiting for stabilization or a clearer catalyst is prudent.

Unless your thesis has changed or you need to reduce risk, selling is not urgent: fundamentals remain solid and valuation is fair, but short-term technicals are weak. If LMT breaks below $505 support or operational results deteriorate further, consider reducing exposure.

Key risks include execution and supply chain issues (notably in Aeronautics), high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of ~2.76, and moderate liquidity (current ratio ~1.14, quick ratio ~0.94). Heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts (72% of revenue) and the F-35 program adds concentration risk.

Technical resistance is near $600-$620, with support at $505 and major support at $410. Analyst consensus targets suggest 18-24% upside from current levels, but near-term price action is likely to remain range-bound unless new catalysts emerge.

LMT is fairly valued: its P/E of 24.53 is below sector average, price-to-sales and price-to-book are elevated but justified by strong cash flows and backlog. EV/EBITDA is somewhat high due to recent volatility but normalizes near sector averages.

Fundamentals remain strong with consistent profitability, robust free cash flow, and a dominant market position. However, revenue growth has slowed (3.2% YoY in Q1 2026), EPS is down 3.7% YoY, and margins have compressed (gross margin ~11.5%, net margin just over 8%).

Technically, LMT is in a bearish downtrend below all major moving averages, with RSI oversold at ~26 and price testing support near $505. No bullish reversal is confirmed; risk of further downside toward $410 exists if support fails.

Watch for upcoming earnings reports, major new contract announcements (especially international), U.S. defense budget developments, and signs of operational/margin improvement. Leadership changes and AI/technology initiatives could also influence sentiment.

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