LMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is fundamentally strong with sector leadership, robust cash flows, and a record backlog, but faces near-term margin pressure and trades at elevated valuation multiples. Technical momentum is bullish, but sentiment and analyst targets suggest the stock is fairly valued with limited immediate upside. The risk/reward is balanced, making LMT a solid hold for most investors, with better entry points likely on pullbacks or after margin stabilization.
Fundamentals
Lockheed Martin (LMT) demonstrates robust fundamentals, underpinned by strong revenue growth and industry leadership in aerospace and defense. While LMT's margins have come under some pressure, consistent top-line performance and a healthy backlog support a long-term positive outlook, despite a recent earnings miss and valuation that's elevated relative to historical norms.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
9.17% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
155.03% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.3B | 18.6B | 18.2B | 18.0B | 18.6B | 17.1B | 18.1B | 17.2B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +9.17% | +8.80% | +0.18% | +4.47% | -1.34% | +1.34% | +8.56% | +13.68% |
| Net Income | 1.3B | 1.6B | 342.0M | 1.7B | 527.0M | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.5B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +155.03% | -0.25% | -79.16% | +10.81% | -71.76% | -3.62% | -2.38% | -8.53% |
| EPS | $5.82 | $6.98 | $1.46 | $7.30 | $2.23 | $6.83 | $6.87 | $6.42 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +160.99% | +2.20% | -78.75% | +13.71% | -70.70% | +1.19% | +3.31% | -3.17% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 11.42% | 12.04% | 4.04% | 12.93% | 3.71% | 12.38% | 12.23% | 11.59% |
| Operating Margin | 11.47% | 12.25% | 4.12% | 13.20% | 3.74% | 12.51% | 11.85% | 11.80% |
| Net Margin | 6.61% | 8.70% | 1.88% | 9.53% | 2.83% | 9.49% | 9.06% | 8.99% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 20.00% | 26.19% | 6.41% | 25.62% | 8.32% | 22.54% | 26.57% | 23.23% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 2.88% | 3.44% | 0.75% | 3.92% | 1.24% | 3.80% | 3.88% | 3.68% |
Technical Analysis
LMT is currently in a strong uptrend with price well above key moving averages and a confirmed golden cross. Momentum remains positive as the ADX signals a robust trend, and RSI resides in a neutral zone, indicating room for further upside. The stock is in an advancing phase with institutional accumulation, supporting bullish technical conviction.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Strong trend active
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Lockheed Martin (LMT) demonstrates robust fundamentals, underpinned by strong revenue growth and industry leadership in aerospace and defense. While LMT's margins have come under some pressure, consistent top-line performance and a healthy backlog support a long-term positive outlook, despite a recent earnings miss and valuation that's elevated relative to historical norms.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$5.80
Estimated
$7.07
Surprise
$-1.27
Surprise %
-17.96%
Revenue
Actual
$20.33B
Estimated
$18.72B
Surprise
+$1.61B
Surprise %
+8.61%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $5.80 | $6.95 | $7.29 | $7.28 | $7.67 | $6.80 | $6.85 | $6.39 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $7.07 | $6.38 | $6.52 | $6.34 | $6.62 | $6.50 | $6.46 | $5.82 |
| EPS Surprise | -$1.27 | +$0.57 | +$0.77 | +$0.94 | +$1.05 | +$0.30 | +$0.39 | +$0.57 |
| % Diff | -18.0% | +8.9% | +11.8% | +14.8% | +15.9% | +4.6% | +6.0% | +9.8% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $20.33B | $18.61B | $18.16B | $17.96B | $18.62B | $17.1B | $18.12B | $17.2B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $18.72B | $18.55B | $18.57B | $17.78B | $18.87B | $17.38B | $17.04B | $16.04B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$1.61B | +$56.01M | -$415.42M | +$185.3M | -$246.26M | -$274.53M | +$1.08B | +$1.16B |
| % Diff | +8.6% | +0.3% | -2.2% | +1.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | +6.4% | +7.2% |
Valuation
Lockheed Martin's valuation reflects a premium position compared to its own historical averages but remains somewhat conservative relative to the broader Aerospace & Defense sector's elevated multiples. The company's solid financial health, strong profitability metrics, and consistent revenue growth underpin its valuation, while analyst consensus signals a cautious hold stance with price targets spanning a wide range. Despite near-term challenges, Lockheed benefits from its robust market position and steady free cash flow generation, justifying a measured investment approach.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 20.77 | 17.62 | 79.05 | 15.29 | 54.40 | 21.39 | 16.98 | 17.64 |
| Price to Sales | 5.49 | 6.13 | 5.96 | 5.83 | 6.16 | 8.12 | 6.15 | 6.34 |
| Price to Book | 16.62 | 18.46 | 20.27 | 15.67 | 18.11 | 19.28 | 18.05 | 16.39 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 56.59 | 50.08 | 117.88 | 45.62 | 106.66 | 60.45 | 49.91 | 51.46 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 6.36 | 7.14 | 7.08 | 6.86 | 7.11 | 9.06 | 7.07 | 7.31 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Lockheed Martin's market sentiment is predominantly positive driven by strong financial performance, a record backlog, and favorable geopolitical developments increasing defense demand. However, some caution persists due to concerns about valuation levels, supply chain constraints, and recent earnings misses, leading to a mixed investor mood. Analyst consensus leans toward a cautious hold with price targets below current levels, reflecting balanced optimism and risk awareness.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Lockheed Martin exhibits moderate liquidity but carries a notably high leverage profile, indicative of reliance on debt financing. Its dominant revenue stream from U.S. government contracts presents both a stable income source and concentration risk, while ongoing supply chain and program execution challenges add to operational risks. Valuation metrics suggest the stock trades near peak multiples, which may temper incremental upside from an investor perspective.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.09 | 1.13 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.11 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 3.23 | 3.59 | 4.06 | 3.04 | 3.20 | 2.68 | 3.12 | 2.92 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.09(Adequate)
Quick Ratio: 0.94(Adequate)
The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 3.23(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.36(Moderate)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about LMT
AI Answers: Common Questions About LMT
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Lockheed Martin Corporation
LMT is not a compelling buy right now given its P/E of 31.03 (above historical norms), price near 52-week highs ($667.82 vs. $692 high), and analyst targets ($612.50) below current price. While fundamentals are strong, margin pressure and valuation suggest waiting for a pullback or margin improvement before buying.
There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own LMT, as the long-term outlook remains positive and technicals are still bullish. However, with valuation stretched and recent earnings volatility, trimming or holding is prudent unless the stock breaks down below key support levels ($584).
Key risks include high leverage (debt-to-equity > 3), margin compression (net margin down to 6.7%), and heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts (72% of sales). Additional risks are supply chain pressures, potential defense budget cuts, and execution delays on major programs.
Technical resistance is at $692 (52-week high) and $700 (psychological), with support at $584 and $506. Analyst consensus target is $612.50, suggesting limited upside and some downside risk from current levels.
LMT is fairly valued to slightly overvalued: P/E is 31.03 (above its historical range), EV/EBITDA is elevated, but P/S is below sector averages. The premium is justified by backlog and cash flows, but not enough to warrant aggressive buying at current prices.
LMT's fundamentals are strong with 5.6% YoY revenue growth, a record $194B backlog, and recurring government contracts, but profitability has declined (net margin 6.7%, down from 10.2%) and leverage is high. Earnings quality remains solid, but near-term cost control is a concern.
Technically, LMT is in a strong uptrend above all major moving averages, with a golden cross and RSI at 64.2 (neutral). Immediate resistance is at $692 and $700, with support at $584 and $506; a breakout above resistance could trigger further upside, but buying at these levels carries risk of a pullback.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (focus on margin recovery), potential new contract wins, geopolitical events increasing defense spending, and successful cost control initiatives. Watch for a breakout above $692/$700 or signs of margin stabilization for renewed upside.
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