LMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

$613.72-10.15 (-1.63%) today

Open
$619.87
High
$621.70
Low
$607.16
Volume
722.38K
Mkt Cap
$141.44B
52W High
$692.00
AI Verdict
Confidence 87%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Lockheed Martin (LMT) offers stable long-term prospects backed by strong defense demand, robust backlog, and industry leadership, but faces near-term margin pressures and is fairly valued at current levels. Technicals show consolidation with no clear breakout, and sentiment is mixed but slightly positive. Investors should expect steady, but not spectacular, returns while monitoring for margin stabilization and execution on key programs.

By Timeframe
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Short
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Medium
HOLD
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Agent Signals
5
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Lockheed Martin (LMT) demonstrates solid financial fundamentals, characterized by robust revenue growth and stable, if somewhat pressured, profitability metrics. Recent quarters show fluctuating margins but consistent top-line expansion, supported by a resilient government defense demand backdrop. While earnings execution in the latest quarter disappointed, the company’s overall multi-year growth and competitive positioning remain strong.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$5.5B$11.0B$16.5B$22.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)0%3%6%9%12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$20.33B

9.17% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$1.34B

155.03% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

6.61%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

9.17%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

155.03%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

11.58%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

160.99%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

8.47%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue20.3B18.6B18.2B18.0B18.6B17.1B18.1B17.2B
Revenue Growth YoY+9.17%+8.80%+0.18%+4.47%-1.34%+1.34%+8.56%+13.68%
Net Income1.3B1.6B342.0M1.7B527.0M1.6B1.6B1.5B
Net Income Growth YoY+155.03%-0.25%-79.16%+10.81%-71.76%-3.62%-2.38%-8.53%
EPS$5.82$6.98$1.46$7.30$2.23$6.83$6.87$6.42
EPS Growth YoY+160.99%+2.20%-78.75%+13.71%-70.70%+1.19%+3.31%-3.17%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

10.15%

TTM

Operating Margin

10.30%

TTM

Net Margin

6.68%

TTM

Return on Equity

80.53%

TTM

Return on Assets

10.76%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin11.42%12.04%4.04%12.93%3.71%12.38%12.23%11.59%
Operating Margin11.47%12.25%4.12%13.20%3.74%12.51%11.85%11.80%
Net Margin6.61%8.70%1.88%9.53%2.83%9.49%9.06%8.99%
Return on Equity (ROE)20.00%26.19%6.41%25.62%8.32%22.54%26.57%23.23%
Return on Assets (ROA)2.88%3.44%0.75%3.92%1.24%3.80%3.88%3.68%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Lockheed Martin (LMT) is currently in a technical consolidation with a mixed but generally constructive outlook. The stock is in a Stage 2 advancing phase supported by a golden cross, although momentum indicators show neutral to weak trend signals. Key support around $608-$618 is holding, while resistance near $644-$672 caps upside, indicating a range-bound trading environment awaiting a breakout.

RSI
Hold
Neutral44

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

+18.6% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend17

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Hold
Golden Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$613.72
50 SMA
$637.93
150 SMA
$540.98
200 SMA
$517.26
52W High
$692.00
52W Low
$410.11

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
44Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Lockheed Martin (LMT) demonstrates solid financial fundamentals, characterized by robust revenue growth and stable, if somewhat pressured, profitability metrics. Recent quarters show fluctuating margins but consistent top-line expansion, supported by a resilient government defense demand backdrop. While earnings execution in the latest quarter disappointed, the company’s overall multi-year growth and competitive positioning remain strong.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$5.80

Estimated

$7.07

Surprise

$-1.27

Surprise %

-17.96%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$20.32B

Estimated

$18.72B

Surprise

+$1.6B

Surprise %

+8.56%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$5.80$6.95$7.29$7.28$7.67$6.80$6.85$6.39
EPS (Estimated)$7.07$6.38$6.52$6.34$6.62$6.50$6.46$5.82
EPS Surprise-$1.27+$0.57+$0.77+$0.94+$1.05+$0.30+$0.39+$0.57
% Diff-18.0%+8.9%+11.8%+14.8%+15.9%+4.6%+6.0%+9.8%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$20.32B$18.61B$18.16B$17.96B$18.62B$17.1B$18.12B$17.2B
Revenue (Estimated)$18.72B$18.55B$18.57B$17.78B$18.87B$17.38B$17.04B$16.04B
Revenue Surprise+$1.6B+$56.01M-$415.42M+$185.3M-$246.26M-$274.53M+$1.08B+$1.16B
% Diff+8.6%+0.3%-2.2%+1.0%-1.3%-1.6%+6.4%+7.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Lockheed Martin exhibits strong financial health with stable revenue growth and robust profitability metrics, though earnings growth has slightly contracted recently. Valuation multiples position the stock slightly above the sector median P/E but reflect its premium business model and solid return on equity. Analyst consensus tilts toward a Hold with moderate upside potential near current prices based on fair value estimates.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

28.25

TTM

Price to Sales

1.88

TTM

Price to Book

21.08

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

18.22

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

2.12

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings20.7717.6279.0515.2954.4021.3916.9817.64
Price to Sales5.496.135.965.836.168.126.156.34
Price to Book16.6218.4620.2715.6718.1119.2818.0516.39
Enterprise Value to EBITDA56.5950.08117.8845.62106.6660.4549.9151.46
Enterprise Value to Revenue6.367.147.086.867.119.067.077.31

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Lockheed Martin's market sentiment in April 2026 is mixed to moderately positive, fueled by significant contract wins and robust backlog growth, albeit tempered by some cautious analyst stance and recent price pullback. Investor optimism is driven by strong defense demand amid geopolitical tensions, while analysts remain diverse in their outlooks, with a majority holding neutral positions.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.3 / 5.0
Based on 22 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
15
Buy
5
Strong Buy
1

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Lockheed Martin exhibits moderate financial risk characterized by solid, though slightly stretched, liquidity and elevated leverage. The company's heavy reliance on government contracts and exposure to operational and geopolitical risks are balanced by a significant contract backlog and sustained governmental defense spending. Valuation metrics indicate a premium pricing that may temper upside potential while operational challenges and supply chain fragility pose near-term risks.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.09

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.94

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

3.23

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.36

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.091.130.981.081.131.301.241.30
Quick Ratio0.940.970.830.910.951.121.071.11
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity3.233.594.063.043.202.683.122.92
Debt-to-Assets0.360.370.370.360.360.350.350.35

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.09(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 0.94(Adequate)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 3.23(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.36(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about LMT

AI Answers: Common Questions About LMT

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Lockheed Martin Corporation

LMT is fairly valued at a P/E of 28.56, with price at $613.72 near key support and below its 52-week high ($692). While fundamentals are strong and backlog robust, margin pressures and a lack of technical breakout suggest it's not a compelling buy right now unless margin trends improve or the stock breaks above $644 with volume.

Unless your thesis has changed or you are concerned about near-term margin risks, there is no strong reason to sell. Fundamentals remain solid and technicals do not indicate a breakdown; however, if LMT falls below $598 support or margin trends worsen, consider reducing exposure.

Key risks include margin contraction (net margin down to 6.7% in 2025), high leverage (debt-to-equity >3.2), and reliance on government contracts (72% of sales). Liquidity is moderate (current ratio just above 1), so any operational or budgetary shocks could pressure the stock.

Upside resistance is at $644, $661, and $672-$677; downside support is at $608, $598, and $483. Analyst price targets range from $517 to $756, reflecting uncertainty. Near-term, expect range-bound trading unless a breakout above $644 or breakdown below $598 occurs.

LMT is trading at a slight premium to sector averages (P/E 28.56, high ROE >38%), justified by its backlog and market position. Valorem assesses it as FAIRLY_VALUED, with current multiples reflecting both business quality and margin risks.

Fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 5.7% YoY to $75.06B, but EPS declined 3.7% and margins compressed (gross margin 10.2%, net margin 6.7%). Backlog and recurring contracts provide stability, but watch for further margin erosion.

Technicals show consolidation with price near support ($608-$618), RSI neutral at 44, and no strong momentum (ADX <20). A breakout above $644 would be bullish, while a breakdown below $598 would be bearish; for now, the outlook is neutral.

Key catalysts include upcoming Q1 2026 earnings, new major contract awards (especially in missile defense and space), and geopolitical events that could spur defense spending. Margin recovery or positive guidance could also drive upside.

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