MA AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Mastercard Incorporated (MA)

$524.66+1.74 (+0.33%) today

Open
$521.10
High
$525.32
Low
$512.75
Volume
2.98M
Mkt Cap
$468.23B
52W High
$601.77
AI Verdict
Confidence 92%
MAMastercard Incorporated
AlphaCrew AI
BUY
Overall
Summary

Mastercard offers a compelling long-term growth story supported by robust fundamentals, strong market position, and positive sentiment, though near-term technicals are bearish. Investors should be aware of short-term downside risk but can expect attractive risk-adjusted returns over a 6-24 month horizon. The stock is fairly valued for its growth profile, with analysts projecting significant upside.

By Timeframe
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WAIT
Short
HOLD
Medium
BUY
Long
Agent Signals
221
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Mastercard continues to deliver robust financial performance, characterized by strong revenue growth, resilient profitability metrics, and consistent earnings beats. Despite a premium valuation, the company’s durable business model, scale advantages, and persistent market share gains in digital payments position it for long-term growth. Near-term risks are mostly macroeconomic and regulatory, but Mastercard’s execution and innovation support a positive fundamental outlook.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B$10.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)44.55%45%45.45%45.9%46.35%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$8.81B

17.59% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$4.06B

21.48% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

46.10%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

17.59%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

21.48%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

20.21%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

24.45%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

21.55%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue8.8B8.6B8.1B7.3B7.5B7.4B7.0B6.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+17.59%+16.73%+16.84%+14.21%+14.37%+12.80%+11.04%+10.44%
Net Income4.1B3.9B3.7B3.3B3.3B3.3B3.3B3.0B
Net Income Growth YoY+21.48%+20.35%+13.60%+8.93%+19.74%+2.03%+14.52%+27.53%
EPS$4.53$4.35$4.07$3.60$3.64$3.54$3.51$3.23
EPS Growth YoY+24.45%+22.88%+15.95%+11.46%+22.15%+4.12%+16.61%+30.24%

Profitability Metrics

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

Mastercard (MA) is currently in a strong downtrend with price trading below key moving averages and exhibiting a bearish technical posture. The presence of a head and shoulders pattern signals potential downside risk towards $464 if support breaks, although RSI remains neutral indicating no immediate extreme momentum. Resistance near $531-$550 presents challenges to any sustained rallies.

RSI
Hold
Neutral48

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-6.5% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend22

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$524.66
50 SMA
$542.76
150 SMA
$559.10
200 SMA
$560.86
52W High
$601.77
52W Low
$465.59

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
48Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Mastercard continues to deliver robust financial performance, characterized by strong revenue growth, resilient profitability metrics, and consistent earnings beats. Despite a premium valuation, the company’s durable business model, scale advantages, and persistent market share gains in digital payments position it for long-term growth. Near-term risks are mostly macroeconomic and regulatory, but Mastercard’s execution and innovation support a positive fundamental outlook.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$4.76

Estimated

$4.24

Surprise

+$0.52

Surprise %

+12.26%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$8.81B

Estimated

$8.77B

Surprise

+$32.41M

Surprise %

+0.37%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$4.76$4.38$4.15$3.73$3.82$3.89$3.59$3.31
EPS (Estimated)$4.24$4.32$4.03$3.58$3.71$3.74$3.51$3.24
EPS Surprise+$0.52+$0.06+$0.12+$0.15+$0.11+$0.15+$0.08+$0.07
% Diff+12.3%+1.4%+3.0%+4.2%+3.0%+4.0%+2.3%+2.2%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$8.81B$8.6B$8.13B$7.25B$7.49B$7.37B$6.96B$6.35B
Revenue (Estimated)$8.77B$8.53B$7.93B$7.13B$7.39B$7.27B$6.85B$6.34B
Revenue Surprise+$32.41M+$67.45M+$203.41M+$119.67M+$103.66M+$103.38M+$109.23M+$9.59M
% Diff+0.4%+0.8%+2.6%+1.7%+1.4%+1.4%+1.6%+0.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Mastercard (MA) currently trades at a premium relative to its peers, reflecting its strong market position and robust financial performance. Despite elevated valuation multiples, the company's solid revenue and earnings growth, combined with high profitability and efficient capital return, support the premium. Analyst consensus is positive, with significant upside potential based on price targets.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

31.44

TTM

Price to Sales

14.28

TTM

Price to Book

60.76

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

23.58

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

14.52

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings31.5332.7034.4738.1036.1234.9231.2037.06
Price to Sales58.1559.7162.7468.9564.4861.8558.4070.31
Price to Book66.1164.9864.9774.9374.4661.2654.7861.62
Enterprise Value to EBITDA99.8697.61101.05113.88114.41108.9696.17115.87
Enterprise Value to Revenue59.0560.7263.9670.5065.7862.8459.6471.63

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

Mastercard exhibits a strong bullish sentiment supported by a high concentration of buy and strong buy analyst ratings and positive news around digital payments innovation. Recent partnerships and technological advancements are fueling optimism, while investor interest continues to rise. Overall, the stock is perceived as a growth-oriented leader in payments with a substantial upside potential.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.0 / 5.0
Based on 38 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
5
Buy
27
Strong Buy
6

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Mastercard presents a solid financial profile with steady revenue growth and robust earnings, supported by favorable market sentiment and strong analyst buy ratings. Liquidity metrics are adequate though somewhat tight, while the company carries a relatively high but manageable debt load underpinned by strong interest coverage. Ongoing regulatory pressures and competitive threats from emerging payment platforms pose notable risks, though growth opportunities via AI integration and digital payments offer upside potential.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.03

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.03

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

2.45

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.35

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.031.121.161.111.031.291.141.09
Quick Ratio1.031.121.161.111.031.291.141.09
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity2.452.402.422.822.812.472.102.16
Debt-to-Assets0.350.360.370.390.380.390.370.37

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.03(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.03(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 2.45(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.35(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about MA

AI Answers: Common Questions About MA

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Mastercard Incorporated

Mastercard is a good buy for long-term investors given its strong fundamentals (16.4% revenue growth, 59.2% operating margin, P/E 31.55) and analyst price targets of $660-$670 (27-29% upside). However, technicals are currently bearish, so short-term traders may want to wait for a reversal or stabilization above $550 before entering.

Unless your horizon is very short-term, there is no strong reason to sell now: fundamentals remain robust, sentiment is bullish, and the long-term outlook is positive. Technicals suggest possible further downside toward $496-$464, so traders could consider reducing exposure, but long-term holders should stay invested.

The biggest risks are regulatory (potential changes to interchange fees), technological disruption from fintechs or digital currencies, and elevated leverage (debt/equity ~2.45, current ratio just above 1.0). Liquidity is tight but manageable due to strong cash flow and interest coverage above 30.

Analyst consensus targets are $660-$670, implying 27-29% upside from current levels. Technically, support is at $513 and $496, with downside risk to $464 if these break; resistance is at $531 and $550, which must be cleared for a bullish reversal.

The stock trades at a premium (P/E 31.55, high P/S and EV/EBITDA), but this is justified by superior growth, profitability, and market position. Valorem rates it as fairly valued relative to its own history and sector peers, with room for multiple expansion if growth persists.

Mastercard is fundamentally strong: revenue and EPS are accelerating, margins are industry-leading (operating margin 59.2%, net margin ~46%), and returns on equity are exceptional (>90%). Growth is organic and recurring, with strong execution and high-quality earnings.

Technical analysis is bearish: the stock is below all major moving averages, a head and shoulders breakdown has occurred, and momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) are weak. Key support is at $513 and $496, with risk of further downside to $464; a reversal above $550 is needed for a bullish outlook.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (with a track record of beats), expansion into AI-driven and stablecoin payments, and new partnerships in digital payments. Regulatory developments and macroeconomic trends in consumer spending are also important to monitor.

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