MCD AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

McDonald's exhibits consistent revenue and earnings growth supported by strong operational efficiency and margin stability. The firm maintains solid profitability and a resilient business model with strategic initiatives driving sustainable growth despite macroeconomic challenges.

Financial Highlights

Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B$8.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)30%30.75%31.5%32.25%33%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$6.52B

9.44% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Income

$1.98B

6.16% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Margin

30.43%

Q1 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

9.44%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

6.16%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

10.08%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

EPS Growth YoY

6.90%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

62.55%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Revenue6.5B7.0B7.1B6.8B6.0B6.4B6.9B6.5B
Revenue Growth YoY+9.44%+9.72%+2.97%+5.44%-3.47%-0.28%+2.72%-0.11%
Net Income2.0B2.2B2.3B2.3B1.9B2.0B2.3B2.0B
Net Income Growth YoY+6.16%+7.34%+1.02%+11.42%-3.16%-1.13%-2.68%-12.47%
EPS$2.79$3.03$3.20$3.15$2.61$2.82$3.15$2.81
EPS Growth YoY+6.90%+7.45%+1.59%+12.10%-2.25%0.00%-1.25%-11.36%

Profitability Metrics

No profitability metrics available

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

McDonald's (MCD) is currently experiencing a bearish technical environment characterized by a strong downtrend with price trading below critical moving averages amid weak trend momentum. Despite some short-term bullish signals in candlestick patterns and mixed MACD signals, overall technical indicators and chart patterns suggest caution with potential for range-bound trading or further downside before a confirmed reversal.

RSI
Hold
Neutral43

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-11.7% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend13

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$265.23
50 SMA
$274.58
150 SMA
$297.84
200 SMA
$300.31
52W High
$341.75
52W Low
$260.96

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
43Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

McDonald's exhibits consistent revenue and earnings growth supported by strong operational efficiency and margin stability. The firm maintains solid profitability and a resilient business model with strategic initiatives driving sustainable growth despite macroeconomic challenges.

Latest Earnings

Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$2.83

Estimated

$2.74

Surprise

+$0.09

Surprise %

+3.28%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$6.52B

Estimated

$6.47B

Surprise

+$46.15M

Surprise %

+0.71%

Historical Earnings

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$2.83$3.12$3.22$3.19$2.67$2.83$3.23$2.97
EPS (Estimated)$2.74$3.05$3.33$3.14$2.66$2.85$3.20$3.07
EPS Surprise+$0.09+$0.07-$0.11+$0.05+$0.01-$0.02+$0.03-$0.10
% Diff+3.3%+2.3%-3.3%+1.6%+0.4%-0.7%+0.9%-3.3%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$6.52B$7.01B$7.08B$6.84B$5.96B$6.39B$6.87B$6.49B
Revenue (Estimated)$6.47B$6.84B$7.08B$6.7B$6.1B$6.45B$6.82B$6.62B
Revenue Surprise+$46.15M+$171.15M-$6.13M+$145.14M-$146.15M-$61.71M+$56.52M-$132.98M
% Diff+0.7%+2.5%-0.1%+2.2%-2.4%-1.0%+0.8%-2.0%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

McDonald's stock presents a fundamentally strong profile with solid revenue and earnings growth alongside industry-leading operating margins, supported by a robust franchise model and consistent cash flow generation. Valuation metrics indicate the stock trades at a reasonable level relative to its peers and history, with analysts generally positive, assigning a moderate buy consensus and price targets implying meaningful upside. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, tempered by moderate technical weakness and risks from competition and macroeconomic factors.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

22.24

TTM

Price to Sales

7.01

TTM

Price to Book

-149.57

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

16.49

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

8.96

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Price to Earnings27.8525.2223.7423.1929.9225.7024.1722.24
Price to Sales33.8931.1430.6130.5137.5032.4631.7527.69
Price to Book-171.76-121.88-100.16-75.64-64.65-54.62-42.16-37.25
Enterprise Value to EBITDA78.2873.5669.0069.2385.1974.3972.0067.32
Enterprise Value to Revenue42.1338.8538.1538.4046.1540.4239.3435.58

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

McDonald's (MCD) presents a mixed market sentiment landscape with a strong professional analyst buy consensus and an average price target significantly above the current price, suggesting upside potential. However, the stock is experiencing technical weakness with prolonged trading below its 200-week moving average and low price momentum, reflecting cautious investor enthusiasm ahead of upcoming earnings. Key sentiment drivers include valuation attractiveness, dividend reliability, and strategic initiatives balanced against macroeconomic pressures and consumer caution.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Jul 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.7 / 5.0
Based on 35 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
15
Buy
14
Strong Buy
5

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

McDonald's currently faces a moderate financial risk profile characterized by solid liquidity but high leverage, reflecting its capital-intensive business model and significant debt usage. Market sentiment has been pressured due to reported sales slowdowns and operational challenges amid a tough macroeconomic environment for consumer discretionary spending. However, its strong dividend track record and strategic growth initiatives suggest resilience with cautious optimism for long-term investors.

Liquidity & Solvency

Frequently Asked Questions about MCD

AI Answers: Common Questions About MCD

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's is a good long-term buy given its consistent earnings growth, stable margins (~57% gross margin), and fair valuation with a P/E around 22. However, short-term technical weakness advises waiting for confirmation before buying.

There is no strong sell signal currently. While technicals are bearish, fundamentals remain solid. Selling may be considered if the stock breaks below key support near $262 or if earnings disappoint significantly.

Key risks include high leverage (debt-to-assets >90%), inflationary cost pressures, competitive challenges in fast food, and potential regulatory impacts on franchise operations.

Analyst consensus price targets average around $333, implying meaningful upside from the current price near $270, supported by steady earnings growth and dividend reliability.

The stock trades at a reasonable P/E of 21.9 and EV/EBITDA in the high teens, consistent with its premium brand and operational efficiency. Valuation is fair relative to historical levels and sector peers.

McDonald's fundamentals are strong with FY2025 revenue of $26.9 billion (up 3.8%), stable gross margins (~57%), and EPS growth from $11.45 in FY2024 to $12 in FY2025. The franchise model ensures recurring revenue and margin stability.

Technically, the stock is in a bearish downtrend with price below the 50- and 200-day SMAs, a death cross confirmed, and neutral RSI (~49). Support at $270 is critical; resistance near $273 limits upside in the short term.

Near-term catalysts include the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 4, updates on digital and menu innovation initiatives, and international sales performance.

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