MDLZ AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)
Mondelez (MDLZ) is a fundamentally resilient, defensive stock with strong brands and stable cash flows, but faces near-term margin pressures, elevated valuation, and technical consolidation. While long-term prospects remain solid for risk-averse investors, current technical and liquidity signals suggest patience is warranted before adding or exiting positions.
Fundamentals
Mondelez International (MDLZ) demonstrates steady top-line growth and consistent profitability in the global consumer staples sector, with resilient earnings performance and a robust brand portfolio. While the company delivers on operational stability and margin discipline, recent margin pressures and a relatively high valuation limit significant near-term upside. The stock remains fundamentally solid with moderate growth expectations and an attractive risk profile for defensive investors.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
9.29% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-61.89% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.5B | 9.7B | 9.0B | 9.3B | 9.6B | 9.2B | 8.3B | 9.3B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +9.29% | +5.87% | +7.68% | +0.25% | +3.11% | +1.94% | -1.93% | +1.35% |
| Net Income | 665.0M | 743.0M | 641.0M | 402.0M | 1.7B | 853.0M | 601.0M | 1.4B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -61.89% | -12.90% | +6.66% | -71.53% | +83.68% | -13.31% | -36.33% | -32.15% |
| EPS | $0.52 | $0.57 | $0.50 | $0.31 | $1.31 | $0.64 | $0.45 | $1.05 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -60.31% | -10.94% | +11.11% | -70.48% | +87.14% | -11.11% | -34.78% | -30.92% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
MDLZ is currently in a topping phase showing signs of distribution with a weak trend and neutral momentum. Price consolidates between key moving averages with the 50 SMA below the 200 SMA indicating bearish structural elements, while RSI remains neutral. Volume and momentum indicators do not confirm strong directional conviction, suggesting cautious trading ahead.
No extreme reading
Mixed signals
Range-bound market
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Mondelez International (MDLZ) demonstrates steady top-line growth and consistent profitability in the global consumer staples sector, with resilient earnings performance and a robust brand portfolio. While the company delivers on operational stability and margin discipline, recent margin pressures and a relatively high valuation limit significant near-term upside. The stock remains fundamentally solid with moderate growth expectations and an attractive risk profile for defensive investors.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.72
Estimated
$0.70
Surprise
+$0.02
Surprise %
+3.45%
Revenue
Actual
$10.49B
Estimated
$10.31B
Surprise
+$185.2M
Surprise %
+1.80%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.72 | $0.73 | $0.73 | $0.74 | $0.65 | $0.99 | $0.86 | $0.95 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.70 | $0.72 | $0.68 | $0.65 | $0.66 | $0.85 | $0.79 | $0.89 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.02 | +$0.01 | +$0.05 | +$0.09 | -$0.01 | +$0.14 | +$0.07 | +$0.06 |
| % Diff | +3.4% | +0.8% | +7.8% | +13.1% | -1.2% | +16.5% | +9.3% | +6.7% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $10.49B | $9.74B | $8.98B | $9.31B | $9.6B | $9.2B | $8.34B | $9.29B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $10.31B | $9.74B | $8.86B | $9.31B | $9.64B | $9.11B | $8.45B | $9.16B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$185.2M | +$1.59M | +$127M | -$604.75K | -$36.5M | +$89.92M | -$104.89M | +$127.19M |
| % Diff | +1.8% | +0.0% | +1.4% | -0.0% | -0.4% | +1.0% | -1.2% | +1.4% |
Valuation
Mondelez International is valued at a premium relative to some peers in the consumer defensive sector, driven by steady revenue growth but challenged by recent earnings compression. Analyst sentiment remains moderately positive with several price targets suggesting upside potential within a mid-term horizon. However, elevated valuation multiples and margin pressures highlight a need for cautious optimism.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 26.09 | 27.40 | 34.06 | 54.90 | 11.45 | 28.91 | 36.45 | 16.65 |
| Price to Sales | 6.61 | 8.36 | 9.72 | 9.48 | 8.32 | 10.72 | 10.50 | 10.12 |
| Price to Book | 2.69 | 3.11 | 3.33 | 3.42 | 2.97 | 3.54 | 3.16 | 3.30 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 67.67 | 85.35 | 79.80 | 106.23 | 47.19 | 73.65 | 82.08 | 35.94 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 8.54 | 10.47 | 11.95 | 11.48 | 10.10 | 12.77 | 12.76 | 12.08 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Mondelez International (MDLZ) currently exhibits a mixed to moderately positive sentiment landscape. Analysts generally maintain a Buy or Outperform consensus with average price targets indicating upside potential, driven by solid brand strength and steady revenue growth. However, concerns persist around near-term volume softness, competitive pressures in Europe, and margin challenges due to cocoa prices, contributing to some downgrades and cautious investor views.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Mondelez International (MDLZ) faces a moderate financial risk profile with considerable short-term liquidity challenges but manageable long-term debt. Despite declining commodity prices, hedging strategies and consumer demand softness constrain near-term margin improvements. The company's leverage is moderate with a solid ability to service debt, though competitive and macroeconomic pressures present ongoing risks.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.59(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.39(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.87(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.31(Moderate)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about MDLZ
AI Answers: Common Questions About MDLZ
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Mondelez International, Inc.
MDLZ is not a strong buy at current levels ($59, P/E 31.22) due to margin compression and a premium valuation relative to its history and some peers. While fundamentals are solid and analyst targets suggest 10-15% upside, technicals and liquidity risks argue for patience before initiating new positions.
There is no urgent reason to sell unless you expect further margin deterioration or a technical breakdown below $58 support. Fundamentals remain stable and long-term prospects are intact, but the lack of near-term momentum and valuation stretch suggest holding rather than selling.
The biggest risks are short-term liquidity strain (current and quick ratios below 1), ongoing margin compression (gross margin down from ~39.1% to ~28.0%), and exposure to commodity price volatility, especially cocoa. Competitive pressures in core markets and macroeconomic uncertainty also pose threats to growth and profitability.
Analyst price targets cluster around $66-67 (10-15% upside), with technical resistance at $60.12 and support at $58.60 and $58.36. A breakout above $61 could signal further upside, while a breakdown below $58 risks a move to $56.50.
MDLZ is fairly valued to slightly overvalued with a P/E of 31.22 and elevated EV/EBITDA compared to sector averages. The premium reflects brand strength and expected margin recovery, but leaves little margin for error if growth disappoints.
Fundamentally, MDLZ is strong with steady revenue growth (~5.8% YoY), high-quality recurring earnings, and sector-leading brands. However, recent margin compression (gross margin down ~11% YoY, net margin halved) and declining EPS are concerns, though cash flows and debt service remain robust.
Technical analysis is neutral-to-bearish: price is consolidating below the 200 SMA ($60.12), 50 SMA is below 200 SMA (death cross), and RSI is neutral at 56.3. No clear breakout or breakdown is present; traders should watch for moves above $61 or below $58 for direction.
Key catalysts include the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings (April 28), potential margin recovery if input costs decline, and continued growth in emerging markets. Watch for updates on cost management, volume trends, and any major product or M&A announcements.
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