MELI AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)

$1,773.96-19.24 (-1.07%) today

Open
$1,801.00
High
$1,812.89
Low
$1,756.87
Volume
366.41K
Mkt Cap
$89.93B
52W High
$2,645.22
AI Verdict
Confidence 87%
MELIMercadoLibre, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
BUY
Overall
Summary

MercadoLibre (MELI) remains a premier long-term growth story in Latin America, with strong fundamentals, robust revenue growth, and a dominant market position, though short-term technicals are bearish. Valuation is at a premium but justified by growth, and sentiment is positive with analysts projecting significant upside. Investors should expect near-term volatility, but the risk/reward profile favors patient, long-term holders.

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Short
HOLD
Medium
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Long
Agent Signals
221
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

MercadoLibre (MELI) demonstrates robust fundamental strength with consistent double-digit revenue and earnings growth, while maintaining expanding operating leverage. Despite a steep pullback from 2025 highs, the business remains fundamentally sound, outperforming peers in Latin America's fast-growing digital economy and maintaining high profitability metrics. However, the recent deceleration in margin expansion and some quarterly earnings misses highlight pockets of near-term execution risk.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B$10.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)4%6%8%10%12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$8.76B

44.56% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$559.00M

-12.52% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

6.38%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

44.56%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-12.52%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

44.56%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-12.53%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

55.09%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue8.8B7.4B6.8B5.9B6.1B5.3B5.1B4.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+44.56%+39.48%+33.85%+36.97%+42.20%+35.27%+41.51%+36.00%
Net Income559.0M421.0M523.0M494.0M639.0M397.0M531.0M344.0M
Net Income Growth YoY-12.52%+6.05%-1.51%+43.60%+287.27%+10.58%+102.67%+71.14%
EPS$11.03$8.30$10.32$9.74$12.61$7.83$10.47$6.79
EPS Growth YoY-12.53%+6.00%-1.43%+43.45%+286.81%+9.05%+100.57%+69.75%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

44.50%

TTM

Operating Margin

11.08%

TTM

Net Margin

6.91%

TTM

Return on Equity

33.73%

TTM

Return on Assets

4.70%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin43.20%43.31%45.57%46.69%45.37%45.91%46.62%46.71%
Operating Margin10.15%9.77%12.15%12.86%13.53%10.49%14.31%12.19%
Net Margin6.38%5.68%7.70%8.32%10.55%7.47%10.47%7.94%
Return on Equity (ROE)8.28%6.77%9.15%9.87%14.69%9.92%14.52%10.15%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.32%1.16%1.60%1.80%2.56%1.77%2.68%1.82%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

MercadoLibre (MELI) is currently in a strong downtrend characterized by its price trading below the 50, 150, and 200-day moving averages with a confirmed death cross. Momentum indicators such as RSI are in a neutral zone, while ADX above 25 indicates a strong prevailing trend, albeit bearish. Price is testing major support around $1750-$1755, with resistance looming near $1900 and $1977, suggesting potential range-bound trading or continuation of downtrend unless a breakout occurs.

RSI
Hold
Neutral54

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-17.2% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend26

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$1773.96
50 SMA
$1828.24
150 SMA
$2052.41
200 SMA
$2141.17
52W High
$2645.22
52W Low
$1593.21

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
54Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

MercadoLibre (MELI) demonstrates robust fundamental strength with consistent double-digit revenue and earnings growth, while maintaining expanding operating leverage. Despite a steep pullback from 2025 highs, the business remains fundamentally sound, outperforming peers in Latin America's fast-growing digital economy and maintaining high profitability metrics. However, the recent deceleration in margin expansion and some quarterly earnings misses highlight pockets of near-term execution risk.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$11.03

Estimated

$11.45

Surprise

$-0.42

Surprise %

-3.67%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$8.76B

Estimated

$8.45B

Surprise

+$309.38M

Surprise %

+3.66%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$11.03$8.32$10.31$9.74$12.61$7.83$10.48$6.78
EPS (Estimated)$11.45$9.12$11.93$8.27$10.21$10.00$8.53$6.03
EPS Surprise-$0.42-$0.80-$1.62+$1.47+$2.40-$2.17+$1.95+$0.75
% Diff-3.7%-8.8%-13.6%+17.8%+23.5%-21.7%+22.9%+12.4%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$8.76B$7.41B$6.79B$5.94B$6.06B$5.31B$5.07B$4.33B
Revenue (Estimated)$8.45B$7.22B$6.67B$5.49B$5.82B$5.28B$4.64B$3.84B
Revenue Surprise+$309.38M+$191.64M+$115.75M+$448.25M+$236.75M+$34.59M+$435.29M+$497.88M
% Diff+3.7%+2.7%+1.7%+8.2%+4.1%+0.7%+9.4%+13.0%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

MercadoLibre (MELI) currently trades at premium valuation multiples compared to its sector and key peers, reflecting strong revenue growth and expansive investments in its ecosystem. Despite margin pressures, the market expects its strategic initiatives in logistics, fintech, and AI to materialize into sustainable earnings growth. Analyst consensus remains positive, with price targets indicating significant upside potential.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

45.03

TTM

Price to Sales

3.11

TTM

Price to Book

13.33

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

28.61

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

3.38

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings45.6770.3563.3450.0533.7365.5138.1356.33
Price to Sales11.6615.9919.5116.6614.2319.5815.9717.89
Price to Book15.1319.0523.1919.7619.8125.9922.1522.87
Enterprise Value to EBITDA103.62259.32145.61113.0393.90150.8997.07119.20
Enterprise Value to Revenue12.5416.9820.3917.4614.9220.3716.4818.51

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

MercadoLibre (MELI) currently exhibits a broadly positive market sentiment bolstered by strong revenue growth and aggressive investments in fintech, AI, and logistics despite short-term margin pressures. Analysts maintain a moderate buy consensus with price targets suggesting significant upside potential around 43%, reflecting confidence in long-term growth. Retail and social sentiment support this optimism, although some concerns about valuation premium and recent technical weakness are evident.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 27 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
2
Buy
19
Strong Buy
6

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

MercadoLibre operates with moderate liquidity and increased leverage, reflecting its aggressive growth and investment strategy in Latin America. While revenue growth remains robust, sustained margin compression and rapid credit portfolio expansion introduce notable financial risks. The company faces intense sector competition and macroeconomic challenges, but its integrated platform and market leadership offer meaningful upside potential for long-term investors.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.17

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.15

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

1.69

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.27

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.171.171.201.201.211.251.281.27
Quick Ratio1.151.151.181.181.201.221.261.25
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity1.691.591.571.541.571.581.481.56
Debt-to-Assets0.270.270.270.280.270.280.270.28

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.17(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.15(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 1.69(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.27(Low)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about MELI

AI Answers: Common Questions About MELI

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about MercadoLibre, Inc.

MELI is a good buy for long-term investors, trading at $1773.96 with a P/E of 45.05—above sector averages but below its historical highs—reflecting strong growth expectations. The stock is well off its 52-week high ($2645.22), offering a better entry point for those with a 12-24 month horizon, though short-term technicals suggest waiting for stabilization before entering aggressively.

Unless your horizon is very short-term, there is no compelling reason to sell MELI now; fundamentals remain strong and sentiment is positive. However, if you are a trader or risk-averse to further near-term declines, technicals suggest waiting for a confirmed reversal before adding or holding large positions.

The biggest risks are margin compression from ongoing investments, a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.69 indicating elevated leverage, and macro/currency volatility in key markets like Argentina. Rapid credit expansion also raises the risk of higher loan defaults, which could impact profitability if not managed carefully.

Analyst consensus price targets suggest ~43% upside from current levels, with technical resistance at $1900 and $1977 and support at $1750-$1755 and $1599-$1612. If support fails, downside could extend to the $1600 region; if the downtrend reverses, a move toward $1900+ is likely.

MELI is fairly valued for a high-growth stock, with a P/E of 45.05 and elevated EV/EBITDA and P/S ratios, but these have compressed from historical peaks. The premium is justified by 39-45% revenue growth and strong market positioning, though margin pressures warrant some caution.

Fundamentals are robust: 2025 revenue grew 39% YoY to $28.89B, operating margin is stable at 11%, and net margin improved to 6.9%. Cash flow is strong, ROE is around 20%, and growth is primarily organic, supporting long-term sustainability.

Technical analysis is bearish: price is below the 50, 150, and 200-day SMAs with a death cross, RSI is neutral at 54, and support is at $1750-$1755. A break below this could target $1599-$1612; upside requires reclaiming $1900 and the 50-day SMA (~$1828).

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (with potential for revenue and margin surprises), continued rollout of fintech and AI products, and macro developments in Latin America. Analyst upgrades and large-scale investment plans (e.g., $3.4B in Argentina) could also drive sentiment and price action.

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