NFLX AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

$99.17+0.51 (+0.52%) today

Open
$98.50
High
$100.19
Low
$98.10
Volume
53.24M
Mkt Cap
$420.22B
52W High
$134.12
AI Verdict
Confidence 89%
NFLXNetflix, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
BUY
Overall
Summary

Netflix (NFLX) offers a compelling long-term investment case, underpinned by robust fundamentals, strong growth in advertising and international markets, and positive sentiment following strategic decisions. While short-term technicals are mixed and valuation is elevated, the company's operational execution, margin expansion, and disciplined capital allocation support further upside for patient investors.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
HOLD
Short
HOLD
Medium
BUY
Long
Agent Signals
23
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Netflix demonstrates robust financial momentum, marked by consistent revenue and earnings growth, strong profitability, and an ability to regularly meet or exceed analyst expectations. Margins have expanded over the last several years, reflecting operating leverage and effective cost management, but valuation has reached historically elevated levels, which may temper upside if growth slows.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$3.5B$7.0B$10.5B$14.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)18%21%24%27%30%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$12.05B

17.61% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$2.42B

29.43% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

20.07%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

17.61%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

29.43%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

18.94%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

29.55%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

8.78%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue12.1B11.5B11.1B10.5B10.2B9.8B9.6B9.4B
Revenue Growth YoY+17.61%+17.16%+15.90%+12.51%+16.00%+15.02%+16.76%+14.81%
Net Income2.4B2.5B3.1B2.9B1.9B2.4B2.1B2.3B
Net Income Growth YoY+29.43%+7.76%+45.55%+23.93%+99.25%+40.90%+44.35%+78.70%
EPS$0.57$0.60$0.74$0.68$0.44$0.55$0.50$0.54
EPS Growth YoY+29.55%+9.09%+48.00%+25.93%+104.65%+44.74%+49.25%+84.30%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

45.87%

TTM

Operating Margin

24.54%

TTM

Net Margin

20.07%

TTM

Return on Equity

43.25%

TTM

Return on Assets

48.12%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin45.87%46.45%51.93%50.08%43.71%47.89%45.87%46.89%
Operating Margin24.54%28.22%34.07%31.75%22.18%29.61%27.23%28.09%
Net Margin20.07%22.13%28.21%27.42%18.24%24.06%22.46%24.89%
Return on Equity (ROE)9.09%9.81%12.53%12.03%7.55%10.40%9.71%10.92%
Return on Assets (ROA)10.60%11.42%14.88%14.42%8.82%11.75%12.51%13.59%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Netflix (NFLX) is in a technically mixed position with a strong short-term upward momentum but a longer-term downtrend indicated by moving averages and stage analysis. The stock is currently overbought with RSI above 70 and facing resistance near $97-$98, while holding key support around $86. The MACD and volume indicators show bullish signs, but medium to long-term trend signals suggest caution, as the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, signaling a death cross and ongoing bearish pressure.

RSI
Sell
Overbought74

Watch for pullback

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

-9.7% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend35

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Hold
Death Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$99.17
50 SMA
$86.65
150 SMA
$105.27
200 SMA
$109.78
52W High
$134.12
52W Low
$75.01

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
74Overbought

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Netflix demonstrates robust financial momentum, marked by consistent revenue and earnings growth, strong profitability, and an ability to regularly meet or exceed analyst expectations. Margins have expanded over the last several years, reflecting operating leverage and effective cost management, but valuation has reached historically elevated levels, which may temper upside if growth slows.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.56

Estimated

$0.55

Surprise

+$0.01

Surprise %

+1.45%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$12.05B

Estimated

$11.97B

Surprise

+$80.9M

Surprise %

+0.68%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.56$0.59$0.72$0.66$0.43$0.54$0.49$0.53
EPS (Estimated)$0.55$0.70$0.71$0.57$0.42$0.51$0.47$0.45
EPS Surprise+$0.01-$0.11+$0.01+$0.09+$0.01+$0.03+$0.02+$0.08
% Diff+1.4%-15.2%+1.4%+15.8%+2.4%+5.9%+4.3%+17.8%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$12.05B$11.51B$11.08B$10.54B$10.25B$9.82B$9.56B$9.38B
Revenue (Estimated)$11.97B$11.51B$11.06B$10.51B$10.11B$10.12B$9.53B$8.73B
Revenue Surprise+$80.9M+$1.88M+$21.8M+$35.93M+$138.37M-$294.9M+$30.64M+$648.96M
% Diff+0.7%+0.0%+0.2%+0.3%+1.4%-2.9%+0.3%+7.4%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Netflix currently trades at a premium valuation relative to historical averages and its entertainment sector peers, driven by strong profitability, robust revenue growth, and massive subscriber base expansion. Despite recent cautious guidance and elevated multiples, analyst consensus remains moderately bullish, supported by solid fundamentals and growth opportunities in advertising and content investments. Market sentiment is positive but tempered by valuation concerns and industry competition.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

38.19

TTM

Price to Sales

9.30

TTM

Price to Book

15.76

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

14.07

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

9.42

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings40.9949.9545.5534.4651.0032.1333.7328.45
Price to Sales32.9144.2151.3937.7937.2130.9230.3028.33
Price to Book14.9019.6122.8216.5815.4113.3713.1012.42
Enterprise Value to EBITDA51.1969.7074.5155.9759.5947.0645.8642.00
Enterprise Value to Revenue33.3644.6651.9638.7638.2032.0431.3429.34

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

Market sentiment for Netflix (NFLX) is predominantly positive, bolstered by strong analyst upgrades and investor approval of the company's strategic decision to walk away from the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition. Analysts highlight healthy organic growth potential, solid content performance, and expanding advertising revenue as key drivers. Social media sentiment mirrors this optimism, with retail investors responding favorably to Netflix's clear strategic focus and financial discipline.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.9 / 5.0
Based on 48 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
0
Hold
11
Buy
26
Strong Buy
10

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Netflix maintains a moderately healthy financial position with improving operational margins and strong revenue growth driven by advertising. Despite a moderate leverage profile and stable liquidity, risks include content cost pressures, peak subscriber fatigue, and reliance on advertising growth. Market sentiment remains positive with a Buy consensus, supported by a recent strategic focus on organic growth and share repurchases.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.19

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.19

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.54

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.26

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.191.331.341.201.221.130.951.07
Quick Ratio1.191.331.341.201.221.130.951.07
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.540.560.580.730.730.810.750.77
Debt-to-Assets0.260.260.270.330.340.350.340.34

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.19(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.19(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.54(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.26(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about NFLX

AI Answers: Common Questions About NFLX

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Netflix, Inc.

Netflix is a good buy for long-term investors, with a P/E of 38.62 and strong fundamentals including 15.9% revenue growth and nearly 30% operating margins. However, the stock is technically overbought (RSI ~73) and faces resistance near $98-$100, so waiting for a pullback or accumulating on weakness is prudent.

Unless your horizon is very short-term, there is no strong reason to sell now; fundamentals and sentiment remain bullish, and the company continues to beat earnings estimates. However, if you are a short-term trader and the stock fails to break $98-$100 resistance, consider trimming or taking profits.

The biggest risks are slowing subscriber growth in mature markets, rising content costs that could pressure margins, and the risk of valuation compression if growth expectations are not met. Sentinel notes a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 and a current ratio of 1.1, indicating moderate but manageable financial risk.

Analyst price targets average $113.94, with upside to $151.40. Technically, resistance is at $98.76, $100.24, and $115, with support at $86 and $75. A breakout above $100 could open the path to $113-$115, while a breakdown below $86 risks a move toward $75.

Netflix is fairly valued at a premium, with a P/E of 38.62 and price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA multiples well above sector averages, justified by strong growth and margin expansion. The valuation is not excessive versus high-growth peers, but leaves less room for error if growth slows.

Fundamentally, Netflix is very strong: revenue grew 15.9% YoY, net margin is over 24%, operating margin is 29.5%, and free cash flow is robust. The balance sheet is healthy with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.54) and strong interest coverage (>12x).

Technical analysis is mixed: the stock is overbought (RSI 72.94), faces resistance at $98-$100, and remains in a long-term downtrend (death cross: 50 SMA below 200 SMA). Short-term momentum is positive, but a pullback or consolidation is likely before a sustained breakout.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, continued growth in ad-supported tiers, international ARPU gains, and major content releases. The recent decision to forgo the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition and focus on organic growth has also improved sentiment and could drive further upgrades.

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