NFLX AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

$103.01+0.96 (+0.94%) today

Open
$102.47
High
$103.08
Low
$101.46
Volume
25.44M
Mkt Cap
$436.49B
52W High
$134.12
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
NFLXNetflix, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
BUY
Overall
Summary

Netflix offers a compelling long-term investment case driven by robust fundamentals, expanding margins, and strong brand leadership, though short-term technicals signal caution due to overbought conditions and potential volatility. While valuation is elevated, it is justified by sustained growth and diversified monetization strategies. Investors should expect near-term choppiness but can be confident in the company’s structural growth story.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
HOLD
Short
HOLD
Medium
BUY
Long
Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Netflix displays robust financial health, strong earnings momentum, and improving profitability, positioning it as a top-tier player in the streaming industry. Recent results show healthy revenue growth and margin expansion, supported by effective operational leverage and disciplined content investments.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$3.5B$7.0B$10.5B$14.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)18%21%24%27%30%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$12.05B

17.61% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$2.42B

29.43% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

20.07%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

17.61%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

29.43%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

18.94%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

29.55%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

8.78%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue12.1B11.5B11.1B10.5B10.2B9.8B9.6B9.4B
Revenue Growth YoY+17.61%+17.16%+15.90%+12.51%+16.00%+15.02%+16.76%+14.81%
Net Income2.4B2.5B3.1B2.9B1.9B2.4B2.1B2.3B
Net Income Growth YoY+29.43%+7.76%+45.55%+23.93%+99.25%+40.90%+44.35%+78.70%
EPS$0.57$0.60$0.74$0.68$0.44$0.55$0.50$0.54
EPS Growth YoY+29.55%+9.09%+48.00%+25.93%+104.65%+44.74%+49.25%+84.30%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

45.87%

TTM

Operating Margin

24.54%

TTM

Net Margin

20.07%

TTM

Return on Equity

43.25%

TTM

Return on Assets

48.12%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin45.87%46.45%51.93%50.08%43.71%47.89%45.87%46.89%
Operating Margin24.54%28.22%34.07%31.75%22.18%29.61%27.23%28.09%
Net Margin20.07%22.13%28.21%27.42%18.24%24.06%22.46%24.89%
Return on Equity (ROE)9.09%9.81%12.53%12.03%7.55%10.40%9.71%10.92%
Return on Assets (ROA)10.60%11.42%14.88%14.42%8.82%11.75%12.51%13.59%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Netflix (NFLX) is currently in a technical topping phase characterized by mixed trend signals and overbought momentum. The stock price is above the 50 and 150 SMAs but below the 200 SMA, indicating potential resistance near $106.53 with volatility increasing.

RSI
Sell
Overbought73

Watch for pullback

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

-3.3% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend34

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Hold
Death Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$103.01
50 SMA
$89.70
150 SMA
$101.10
200 SMA
$106.54
52W High
$134.12
52W Low
$75.01

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
73Overbought

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Netflix displays robust financial health, strong earnings momentum, and improving profitability, positioning it as a top-tier player in the streaming industry. Recent results show healthy revenue growth and margin expansion, supported by effective operational leverage and disciplined content investments.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.56

Estimated

$0.55

Surprise

+$0.01

Surprise %

+1.45%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$12.05B

Estimated

$11.97B

Surprise

+$81.14M

Surprise %

+0.68%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.56$0.59$0.72$0.66$0.43$0.54$0.49$0.53
EPS (Estimated)$0.55$0.70$0.71$0.57$0.42$0.51$0.47$0.45
EPS Surprise+$0.01-$0.11+$0.01+$0.09+$0.01+$0.03+$0.02+$0.08
% Diff+1.4%-15.2%+1.4%+15.8%+2.4%+5.9%+4.3%+17.8%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$12.05B$11.51B$11.08B$10.54B$10.25B$9.82B$9.56B$9.38B
Revenue (Estimated)$11.97B$11.51B$11.06B$10.51B$10.11B$10.12B$9.53B$8.73B
Revenue Surprise+$81.14M+$1.88M+$21.8M+$35.93M+$138.37M-$294.9M+$30.64M+$648.96M
% Diff+0.7%+0.0%+0.2%+0.3%+1.4%-2.9%+0.3%+7.4%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Netflix's current valuation reflects a premium relative to sector averages but shows signs of moderate compression compared to its historical highs. Strong revenue and earnings growth coupled with expansion into advertising and gaming support its valuation, though multiples remain elevated compared to peers. Analyst sentiment is broadly positive, suggesting upside potential given recent strategic clarity and financial results.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

39.67

TTM

Price to Sales

9.66

TTM

Price to Book

16.37

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

14.61

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

9.78

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings40.9949.9545.5534.4651.0032.1333.7328.45
Price to Sales32.9144.2151.3937.7937.2130.9230.3028.33
Price to Book14.9019.6122.8216.5815.4113.3713.1012.42
Enterprise Value to EBITDA51.1969.7074.5155.9759.5947.0645.8642.00
Enterprise Value to Revenue33.3644.6651.9638.7638.2032.0431.3429.34

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

The overall market sentiment for Netflix (NFLX) is positive with a predominant analyst consensus rating of Buy and significant bullish expectations driven by revenue growth, expanding margins, and strategic initiatives such as price increases and entry into live sports. However, caution persists around decelerating growth, content production costs, and subscriber acquisition challenges, creating a nuanced sentiment profile. Social media buzz complements this view with optimistic discussions on growth opportunities, despite some valuation concerns.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.9 / 5.0
Based on 52 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
0
Hold
13
Buy
28
Strong Buy
10

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Netflix presents a moderate financial risk profile with manageable leverage and liquidity, balanced against regulatory scrutiny and increased spending pressures. While the company maintains stable short-term liabilities coverage and reasonable debt levels, challenges from growth deceleration in core markets and ongoing acquisition uncertainties add caution. Investors should weigh steady financial fundamentals against potential margin compression and competitive headwinds.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.19

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.19

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.54

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.26

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.191.331.341.201.221.130.951.07
Quick Ratio1.191.331.341.201.221.130.951.07
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.540.560.580.730.730.810.750.77
Debt-to-Assets0.260.260.270.330.340.350.340.34

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.19(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.19(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.54(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.26(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about NFLX

AI Answers: Common Questions About NFLX

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Netflix, Inc.

Netflix is a good buy for long-term investors: it trades at a P/E of 40.72 and a market cap of $436.49B, with revenue up 16% YoY and net margins at 24.3%. While the valuation is above sector averages, it is justified by double-digit growth, expanding margins, and strong free cash flow. Short-term entry may be risky due to overbought technicals, so consider buying on dips.

There is no fundamental reason to sell now unless you are a short-term trader seeking to lock in gains before a possible technical pullback. Fundamentals remain strong, earnings momentum is intact, and sentiment is positive. Only consider selling if the stock breaks below key support ($101.10) or if your investment horizon is very short-term.

Key risks include rising content and ad tech costs that could pressure margins, regulatory scrutiny (antitrust investigations), and slowing subscriber growth in mature markets. Netflix's debt-to-equity is moderate at 0.54, and liquidity is adequate but not robust (current ratio 1.18), so aggressive spending or acquisition-related debt could increase financial risk.

Technical resistance is at $106.54 (200 SMA), with analyst price targets ranging from $115 to $135. Support levels are at $101.10 and $89.70. Near-term, expect volatility between these levels, but long-term upside toward analyst targets is supported by fundamentals.

Netflix is fairly valued: its P/E of 40.72 and elevated EV/EBITDA reflect strong growth and profitability, though they are above sector averages. The premium is justified by consistent revenue and earnings growth, margin expansion, and diversified monetization strategies. Multiples have compressed from historical highs, making the current valuation reasonable.

Netflix is fundamentally strong, with FY25 revenue up 16% YoY, net margin at 24.3%, and ROE near 30%. Free cash flow is improving, and the company has beaten earnings estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters. Debt is moderate (debt/equity 0.54), and liquidity is sufficient for near-term obligations.

Technically, Netflix is in a topping phase with overbought RSI (72.67), price below the 200 SMA ($106.54), and a death cross formation. Key support is at $101.10 and $89.70; resistance is at $106.54. Momentum is fading, so short-term pullback or consolidation is likely before any sustained breakout.

Key catalysts include upcoming Q1 2026 earnings (with expected EPS growth), continued adoption of the ad-supported tier, expansion into live sports, and potential guidance raises. Watch for regulatory developments and the impact of recent price hikes on subscriber trends.

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