NKE AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
NIKE, Inc. (NKE)
Nike (NKE) remains a dominant global brand with strong long-term fundamentals, but is currently facing significant revenue and margin headwinds, resulting in a challenging near-term outlook. While valuation is fair relative to peers and sentiment is cautiously optimistic, technicals and recent earnings trends suggest waiting for clearer signs of stabilization before making new commitments. Investors should monitor upcoming catalysts and margin recovery efforts closely.
Fundamentals
Nike (NKE) remains a global leader in athletic apparel and footwear, but recent financials reveal notable pressure on growth and profitability. Revenue has been largely flat to declining year-over-year, while net income and margins have compressed, suggesting headwinds in demand and cost management. Despite strong brand equity, the company faces a challenging environment as reflected by softer earnings and operational deleveraging.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
0.59% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-31.90% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.4B | 11.7B | 11.1B | 11.3B | 12.4B | 11.6B | 12.6B | 12.4B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +0.59% | +1.13% | -11.97% | -9.33% | -7.72% | -10.43% | -1.71% | +0.31% |
| Net Income | 792.0M | 727.0M | 211.0M | 794.0M | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.5B | 1.2B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -31.90% | -30.83% | -85.93% | -32.25% | -26.30% | -27.52% | +45.49% | -5.48% |
| EPS | $0.54 | $0.49 | $0.14 | $0.54 | $0.78 | $0.70 | $0.99 | $0.77 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -30.77% | -30.00% | -85.86% | -29.87% | -25.00% | -26.32% | +47.76% | -3.75% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
Technical indicator data for NKE is currently unavailable, limiting direct insight from internal RSI, SMA, and ADX values. However, based on recent price action and broader analysis, NKE appears to be in a corrective phase with pressure near major moving averages and testing key support zones. Momentum shows some weakening, indicating potential further downside or consolidation before a clearer directional move.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Range-bound market
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Nike (NKE) remains a global leader in athletic apparel and footwear, but recent financials reveal notable pressure on growth and profitability. Revenue has been largely flat to declining year-over-year, while net income and margins have compressed, suggesting headwinds in demand and cost management. Despite strong brand equity, the company faces a challenging environment as reflected by softer earnings and operational deleveraging.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Nov 30, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.53
Estimated
$0.37
Surprise
+$0.16
Surprise %
+41.45%
Revenue
Actual
$12.43B
Estimated
$12.21B
Surprise
+$221.7M
Surprise %
+1.82%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.53 | $0.49 | $0.14 | $0.54 | $0.78 | $0.70 | $1.01 | $0.98 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.37 | $0.27 | $0.13 | $0.30 | $0.65 | $0.52 | $0.83 | $0.74 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.16 | +$0.22 | +$0.01 | +$0.24 | +$0.13 | +$0.18 | +$0.18 | +$0.24 |
| % Diff | +41.4% | +80.1% | +7.4% | +79.6% | +20.0% | +34.6% | +21.7% | +32.4% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $12.43B | $11.72B | $11.1B | $11.27B | $12.35B | $11.59B | $12.61B | $12.43B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $12.21B | $10.99B | $10.73B | $11.02B | $12.13B | $11.64B | $12.86B | $12.28B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$221.7M | +$730.32M | +$369.11M | +$250.51M | +$224.08M | -$54.3M | -$254.52M | +$149.46M |
| % Diff | +1.8% | +6.6% | +3.4% | +2.3% | +1.8% | -0.5% | -2.0% | +1.2% |
Valuation
Nike's current valuation reflects a premium positioning relative to broader market benchmarks and some peers, supported by steady revenue growth but tempered by recent earnings headwinds. The company exhibits strong financial health metrics, though margin pressures and competitive challenges temper near-term growth optimism. Analyst consensus leans positive, expecting moderate price appreciation within the next 12 months.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 30.51 | 39.29 | 106.01 | 37.20 | 25.18 | 29.68 | 24.00 | 33.74 |
| Price to Sales | 7.78 | 9.75 | 8.06 | 10.49 | 9.48 | 10.77 | 11.42 | 12.73 |
| Price to Book | 6.86 | 8.48 | 6.77 | 8.44 | 8.34 | 8.95 | 9.98 | 11.12 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 101.06 | 101.10 | 179.59 | 117.93 | 77.25 | 92.20 | 83.49 | 100.45 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 8.12 | 10.14 | 8.38 | 10.78 | 9.81 | 11.08 | 11.59 | 12.98 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Nike's market sentiment reflects a generally positive yet cautious outlook. Analysts predominantly recommend a Buy or Moderate Buy rating, supported by price targets implying over 20% upside, but recent challenges such as margin pressure and declining sales in key markets like China temper enthusiasm. The social media buzz focuses on anticipated product releases and strategic partnerships aimed at capturing key demographics.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Nike currently displays a moderate financial risk profile characterized by strong liquidity but margin pressures and weakening revenue trends. While its solid balance sheet supports near-term obligations, competitive intensity, margin compression, and geopolitical challenges pose notable risks. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a moderate buy consensus but notable concerns about sustainability and valuation remain.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 2.06 | 2.19 | 2.21 | 2.19 | 2.22 | 2.36 | 2.40 | 2.74 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.69 | 1.89 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.85 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.32 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 2.06(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 1.40(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.80(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.30(Low)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about NKE
AI Answers: Common Questions About NKE
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about NIKE, Inc.
Nike is not a strong buy at current levels given a P/E of 34.99 and ongoing revenue and margin declines (FY25 revenue -9.8%, net income -43%). The stock is fairly valued relative to peers, but lacks a clear catalyst for near-term upside. Wait for evidence of earnings or margin stabilization before initiating new positions.
If you already own Nike, there is no urgent reason to sell as the company maintains strong liquidity and brand value. However, with technicals weak and fundamentals under pressure, consider trimming exposure if margin recovery fails to materialize or if the stock breaks below key support ($58.62).
The biggest risks are continued revenue decline, margin compression (gross margin now 42.7%, net margin 7.0%), and competitive threats, especially in China. Sentinel notes moderate leverage (debt/equity ~0.8), but earnings volatility and macro headwinds could stress cash flow and valuation.
Analyst consensus targets $75–$78 over 12 months, implying 20%+ upside if recovery occurs. Technically, resistance is at $60.11 and $65.00; a break below $58.62 could target the 52-week low of $52.28. Upside depends on clearing these resistance levels and margin improvement.
Nike is fairly valued with a P/E of 34.99 and high EV/EBITDA, reflecting brand strength but also pricing in recovery expectations. The price-to-sales ratio is above market but below historical highs. Any further earnings deterioration could compress these multiples.
Fundamentals are currently weak: revenue and net income are declining, and margins have compressed significantly. However, the balance sheet is strong (current ratio >2.0, quick ratio ~1.4), and the brand remains a core asset for long-term recovery.
Technical analysis is neutral to bearish: price is testing key support at $58.62 with weak momentum and below-average volume. No clear reversal signals are present; a break below support could trigger further downside, while upside requires reclaiming $60.11 and $65.00.
Key catalysts include upcoming Q3 earnings (focus on margin recovery), new product launches (e.g., NikeSkims partnership), and signs of demand stabilization in China and digital channels. Macro factors like tariffs and consumer spending trends also remain critical.
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