NKE AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

$58.02-0.62 (-1.06%) today

Open
$58.60
High
$58.79
Low
$57.43
Volume
19.86M
Mkt Cap
$85.74B
52W High
$80.19
AI Verdict
Confidence 72%
NKENIKE, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
MIXED
Overall
Summary

Nike (NKE) remains a dominant global brand with strong long-term fundamentals, but is currently facing significant revenue and margin headwinds, resulting in a challenging near-term outlook. While valuation is fair relative to peers and sentiment is cautiously optimistic, technicals and recent earnings trends suggest waiting for clearer signs of stabilization before making new commitments. Investors should monitor upcoming catalysts and margin recovery efforts closely.

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Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Nike (NKE) remains a global leader in athletic apparel and footwear, but recent financials reveal notable pressure on growth and profitability. Revenue has been largely flat to declining year-over-year, while net income and margins have compressed, suggesting headwinds in demand and cost management. Despite strong brand equity, the company faces a challenging environment as reflected by softer earnings and operational deleveraging.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$3.5B$7.0B$10.5B$14.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)0%3%6%9%12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$12.43B

0.59% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$792.00M

-31.90% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

6.37%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

0.59%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-31.90%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

1.18%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-30.77%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

0.93%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue12.4B11.7B11.1B11.3B12.4B11.6B12.6B12.4B
Revenue Growth YoY+0.59%+1.13%-11.97%-9.33%-7.72%-10.43%-1.71%+0.31%
Net Income792.0M727.0M211.0M794.0M1.2B1.1B1.5B1.2B
Net Income Growth YoY-31.90%-30.83%-85.93%-32.25%-26.30%-27.52%+45.49%-5.48%
EPS$0.54$0.49$0.14$0.54$0.78$0.70$0.99$0.77
EPS Growth YoY-30.77%-30.00%-85.86%-29.87%-25.00%-26.32%+47.76%-3.75%

Profitability Metrics

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Technical indicator data for NKE is currently unavailable, limiting direct insight from internal RSI, SMA, and ADX values. However, based on recent price action and broader analysis, NKE appears to be in a corrective phase with pressure near major moving averages and testing key support zones. Momentum shows some weakening, indicating potential further downside or consolidation before a clearer directional move.

RSI
Hold
Neutral34

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-13.9% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend16

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$58.02
50 SMA
$63.02
150 SMA
$67.33
200 SMA
$67.39
52W High
$80.19
52W Low
$52.28

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
34Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Nike (NKE) remains a global leader in athletic apparel and footwear, but recent financials reveal notable pressure on growth and profitability. Revenue has been largely flat to declining year-over-year, while net income and margins have compressed, suggesting headwinds in demand and cost management. Despite strong brand equity, the company faces a challenging environment as reflected by softer earnings and operational deleveraging.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Nov 30, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.53

Estimated

$0.37

Surprise

+$0.16

Surprise %

+41.45%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$12.43B

Estimated

$12.21B

Surprise

+$221.7M

Surprise %

+1.82%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.53$0.49$0.14$0.54$0.78$0.70$1.01$0.98
EPS (Estimated)$0.37$0.27$0.13$0.30$0.65$0.52$0.83$0.74
EPS Surprise+$0.16+$0.22+$0.01+$0.24+$0.13+$0.18+$0.18+$0.24
% Diff+41.4%+80.1%+7.4%+79.6%+20.0%+34.6%+21.7%+32.4%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$12.43B$11.72B$11.1B$11.27B$12.35B$11.59B$12.61B$12.43B
Revenue (Estimated)$12.21B$10.99B$10.73B$11.02B$12.13B$11.64B$12.86B$12.28B
Revenue Surprise+$221.7M+$730.32M+$369.11M+$250.51M+$224.08M-$54.3M-$254.52M+$149.46M
% Diff+1.8%+6.6%+3.4%+2.3%+1.8%-0.5%-2.0%+1.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Nike's current valuation reflects a premium positioning relative to broader market benchmarks and some peers, supported by steady revenue growth but tempered by recent earnings headwinds. The company exhibits strong financial health metrics, though margin pressures and competitive challenges temper near-term growth optimism. Analyst consensus leans positive, expecting moderate price appreciation within the next 12 months.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

33.98

TTM

Price to Sales

1.84

TTM

Price to Book

6.09

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

24.19

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.94

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings30.5139.29106.0137.2025.1829.6824.0033.74
Price to Sales7.789.758.0610.499.4810.7711.4212.73
Price to Book6.868.486.778.448.348.959.9811.12
Enterprise Value to EBITDA101.06101.10179.59117.9377.2592.2083.49100.45
Enterprise Value to Revenue8.1210.148.3810.789.8111.0811.5912.98

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Nike's market sentiment reflects a generally positive yet cautious outlook. Analysts predominantly recommend a Buy or Moderate Buy rating, supported by price targets implying over 20% upside, but recent challenges such as margin pressure and declining sales in key markets like China temper enthusiasm. The social media buzz focuses on anticipated product releases and strategic partnerships aimed at capturing key demographics.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.6 / 5.0
Based on 39 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
1
Hold
14
Buy
18
Strong Buy
5

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Nike currently displays a moderate financial risk profile characterized by strong liquidity but margin pressures and weakening revenue trends. While its solid balance sheet supports near-term obligations, competitive intensity, margin compression, and geopolitical challenges pose notable risks. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a moderate buy consensus but notable concerns about sustainability and valuation remain.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

2.06

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.40

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.80

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.30

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio2.062.192.212.192.222.362.402.74
Quick Ratio1.401.451.501.521.511.581.691.89
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.800.860.830.850.860.870.830.85
Debt-to-Assets0.300.310.300.320.320.320.310.32

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 2.06(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 1.40(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.80(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.30(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about NKE

AI Answers: Common Questions About NKE

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about NIKE, Inc.

Nike is not a strong buy at current levels given a P/E of 34.99 and ongoing revenue and margin declines (FY25 revenue -9.8%, net income -43%). The stock is fairly valued relative to peers, but lacks a clear catalyst for near-term upside. Wait for evidence of earnings or margin stabilization before initiating new positions.

If you already own Nike, there is no urgent reason to sell as the company maintains strong liquidity and brand value. However, with technicals weak and fundamentals under pressure, consider trimming exposure if margin recovery fails to materialize or if the stock breaks below key support ($58.62).

The biggest risks are continued revenue decline, margin compression (gross margin now 42.7%, net margin 7.0%), and competitive threats, especially in China. Sentinel notes moderate leverage (debt/equity ~0.8), but earnings volatility and macro headwinds could stress cash flow and valuation.

Analyst consensus targets $75–$78 over 12 months, implying 20%+ upside if recovery occurs. Technically, resistance is at $60.11 and $65.00; a break below $58.62 could target the 52-week low of $52.28. Upside depends on clearing these resistance levels and margin improvement.

Nike is fairly valued with a P/E of 34.99 and high EV/EBITDA, reflecting brand strength but also pricing in recovery expectations. The price-to-sales ratio is above market but below historical highs. Any further earnings deterioration could compress these multiples.

Fundamentals are currently weak: revenue and net income are declining, and margins have compressed significantly. However, the balance sheet is strong (current ratio >2.0, quick ratio ~1.4), and the brand remains a core asset for long-term recovery.

Technical analysis is neutral to bearish: price is testing key support at $58.62 with weak momentum and below-average volume. No clear reversal signals are present; a break below support could trigger further downside, while upside requires reclaiming $60.11 and $65.00.

Key catalysts include upcoming Q3 earnings (focus on margin recovery), new product launches (e.g., NikeSkims partnership), and signs of demand stabilization in China and digital channels. Macro factors like tariffs and consumer spending trends also remain critical.

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