ORCL AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

$154.67+2.30 (+1.51%) today

Open
$152.59
High
$157.94
Low
$150.18
Volume
21.01M
Mkt Cap
$444.54B
52W High
$345.72
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
ORCLOracle Corporation
AlphaCrew AI
MIXED
Overall
Summary

Oracle presents a classic high-risk, high-reward scenario: strong long-term fundamentals and cloud-driven growth are offset by bearish technicals, high leverage, and mixed sentiment. Near-term, technical weakness and liquidity risks dominate, but the long-term outlook is supported by robust earnings, expanding margins, and a leading market position. Investors should tailor their approach to their risk tolerance and time horizon, with caution warranted until technical or risk factors improve.

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Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) demonstrates robust financial health, solid profitability, and a strong record of earnings execution. The business is benefiting from durable revenue growth and expanding margins, particularly as its cloud and SaaS transformation matures. While valuation is somewhat rich relative to historical levels, the company's strong fundamentals, leading market position, and improving earnings quality support a positive long-term outlook.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$4.5B$9.0B$13.5B$18.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)18%24%30%36%42%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$16.06B

14.22% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$6.13B

94.70% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

38.21%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

14.22%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

94.70%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

11.27%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

90.27%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

108.42%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue16.1B14.9B15.9B14.1B14.1B13.3B14.3B13.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+14.22%+12.17%+11.31%+6.40%+8.64%+6.86%+3.26%+7.11%
Net Income6.1B2.9B3.4B2.9B3.2B2.9B3.1B2.4B
Net Income Growth YoY+94.70%-0.07%+9.00%+22.28%+25.89%+21.03%-5.27%+26.64%
EPS$2.15$1.04$1.22$1.05$1.13$1.06$1.14$0.87
EPS Growth YoY+90.27%-1.89%+7.02%+20.69%+24.18%+19.10%-7.32%+24.29%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

66.53%

TTM

Operating Margin

29.46%

TTM

Net Margin

38.21%

TTM

Return on Equity

67.59%

TTM

Return on Assets

11.10%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin66.53%67.28%70.19%70.31%70.94%70.65%72.53%70.87%
Operating Margin29.46%28.65%32.13%30.84%30.02%29.99%32.80%28.24%
Net Margin38.21%19.61%21.55%20.78%22.41%22.01%22.01%18.08%
Return on Equity (ROE)20.48%12.12%16.76%17.55%22.92%27.08%36.12%42.70%
Return on Assets (ROA)4.41%2.57%3.37%3.12%3.91%3.87%4.38%3.57%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

ORCL is currently in a strong downtrend characterized by a death cross and price trading well below major moving averages. The stock is in a consolidation phase with no clear upward momentum, reflecting cautious market sentiment and the need for confirmation of a breakout. Momentum indicators are mixed, showing a strong trend but lacking directional conviction for a bullish reversal at this time.

RSI
Hold
Neutral47

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-29.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend24

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$154.79
50 SMA
$171.53
150 SMA
$224.81
200 SMA
$220.43
52W High
$345.72
52W Low
$118.86

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
47Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) demonstrates robust financial health, solid profitability, and a strong record of earnings execution. The business is benefiting from durable revenue growth and expanding margins, particularly as its cloud and SaaS transformation matures. While valuation is somewhat rich relative to historical levels, the company's strong fundamentals, leading market position, and improving earnings quality support a positive long-term outlook.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Nov 30, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$2.26

Estimated

$1.64

Surprise

+$0.62

Surprise %

+37.80%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$16.06B

Estimated

$16.19B

Surprise

-$134.74M

Surprise %

-0.83%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$2.26$1.47$1.70$1.47$1.47$1.39$1.63$1.41
EPS (Estimated)$1.64$1.48$1.64$1.49$1.48$1.33$1.65$1.38
EPS Surprise+$0.62-$0.01+$0.06-$0.02-$0.01+$0.06-$0.02+$0.03
% Diff+37.8%-0.7%+3.7%-1.3%-0.7%+4.5%-1.2%+2.2%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$16.06B$14.93B$15.9B$14.13B$14.06B$13.31B$14.29B$13.28B
Revenue (Estimated)$16.19B$15.04B$15.58B$14.38B$14.12B$13.23B$14.56B$13.29B
Revenue Surprise-$134.74M-$113.48M+$321.25M-$245.39M-$58.8M+$73.7M-$275.25M-$6.48M
% Diff-0.8%-0.8%+2.1%-1.7%-0.4%+0.6%-1.9%-0.0%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Oracle Corporation currently trades at valuation multiples that reflect a mature, stable software infrastructure player with consistent earnings growth and profitability. Analyst consensus suggests a significant upside potential based on positive growth outlook and industry positioning, supported by a broad "Buy" rating consensus and strong price targets. However, its high leverage and history of elevated multiples warrant cautious optimism.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

28.72

TTM

Price to Sales

7.29

TTM

Price to Book

14.79

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

20.36

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

9.01

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings23.4554.5833.8739.5840.9233.3025.6531.96
Price to Sales35.8442.8129.2032.8936.6829.3222.5823.11
Price to Book19.2126.4622.7027.7837.5236.0737.0754.58
Enterprise Value to EBITDA71.58153.8881.6992.29103.1185.3165.2272.74
Enterprise Value to Revenue42.3949.1835.0638.4842.2134.8728.3729.02

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Oracle's market sentiment is broadly positive, supported by strong analyst buy ratings and optimism around its cloud and AI initiatives. However, concerns over aggressive capital expenditures and legal challenges introduce some caution among investors. Overall, the company is positioned for growth, but investor confidence is somewhat mixed due to near-term financial pressures and ongoing legal scrutiny.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.9 / 5.0
Based on 43 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
10
Buy
26
Strong Buy
6

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
HIGH

Oracle Corporation currently faces considerable financial and operational risks primarily stemming from aggressive AI-focused capital expenditures driving high leverage and cash flow pressures. Despite these challenges, strong order backlogs and positive analyst sentiment suggest substantial upside potential if execution succeeds. However, litigation, competitive pressures, and debt servicing risk temper the outlook from an investor risk perspective.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.91

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.91

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

4.15

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.61

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.910.620.751.020.810.720.720.85
Quick Ratio0.910.620.751.020.810.720.720.85
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity4.154.365.095.756.457.8110.7015.65
Debt-to-Assets0.610.580.620.600.600.590.660.64

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.91(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.91(Adequate)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 4.15(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.61(High)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about ORCL

AI Answers: Common Questions About ORCL

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Oracle Corporation

Oracle is not an ideal buy for short-term traders right now due to bearish technicals (price at $149.03, well below 50/200 SMAs) and mixed sentiment. However, for long-term investors, the stock is fundamentally strong with a P/E of 28.07 and expanding margins, making it attractive if you can tolerate volatility and high leverage.

If you are a short-term trader, consider reducing exposure until technicals improve or a breakout above $172.82 is confirmed. Long-term holders should stay patient unless the fundamental thesis deteriorates, as the company continues to deliver strong earnings and margin growth.

The biggest risks are high leverage (debt-to-equity >4.1, debt-to-assets >60%), sub-1.0 liquidity ratios (current ratio ~0.91), and ongoing legal issues (securities fraud lawsuits). Aggressive capex and reliance on debt could pressure cash flow and credit ratings if growth stalls.

Technical resistance is at $172.82 (50 SMA) and $220.49 (200 SMA), with downside risk to $143 and $118.86 (52-week low). Analyst price targets range widely from $155 to $400, with consensus upside potential near $288 if execution is strong.

Oracle is fairly valued relative to peers with a P/E of 28.07, in line with sector averages, and elevated EV/EBITDA and P/B multiples reflecting growth expectations. The premium is justified by strong margins and earnings, but high debt tempers the upside.

Oracle's fundamentals are robust: FY25 revenue grew 8.4%, net income up 19%, operating margin 30.8%, and net margin 21.7%. The cloud transition is driving organic growth and margin expansion, but the balance sheet is stressed by high leverage.

Technical analysis is bearish: price is below both 50-day ($172.82) and 200-day ($220.49) SMAs, with an active death cross and RSI at 41.8 (neutral). The stock is consolidating near support ($143), with no bullish reversal pattern yet.

Watch for the March 10, 2026 Q3 earnings report and management commentary on AI/cloud returns. Other catalysts include resolution of legal issues, improved liquidity, and a technical breakout above $172.82.

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