ORLY AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is fundamentally strong with consistent growth and sector-leading margins, but faces short-term headwinds from margin pressure, mixed sentiment, and technical consolidation. While long-term prospects remain attractive, current valuation is full and near-term upside is limited, warranting patience for a better entry or clearer momentum.
Fundamentals
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) demonstrates robust fundamental health, marked by consistent top-line and bottom-line growth, paired with strong and stable margins. The business has sustained impressive operational execution through effective cost controls and has maintained profitability at sector-leading levels.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
7.78% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
9.82% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4B | 4.7B | 4.5B | 4.1B | 4.1B | 4.4B | 4.3B | 4.0B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +7.78% | +7.82% | +5.92% | +4.04% | +6.88% | +3.83% | +4.99% | +7.24% |
| Net Income | 605.2M | 725.9M | 668.6M | 538.5M | 551.1M | 665.5M | 622.8M | 547.2M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +9.82% | +9.08% | +7.34% | -1.60% | -0.25% | +2.41% | -0.72% | +5.87% |
| EPS | $0.72 | $0.86 | $0.78 | $0.63 | $0.64 | $0.76 | $0.71 | $0.62 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +13.01% | +12.43% | +10.23% | +1.34% | +2.39% | +6.09% | +2.89% | +10.95% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
Technical indicator data for ORLY is currently unavailable, limiting the depth of quantitative insights. Based on available price action context, ORLY trades near multi-week support with moderate volume declining. Momentum shows signs of weakening as the stock consolidates below recent highs, awaiting a catalyst for a directional breakout or breakdown.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Range-bound market
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) demonstrates robust fundamental health, marked by consistent top-line and bottom-line growth, paired with strong and stable margins. The business has sustained impressive operational execution through effective cost controls and has maintained profitability at sector-leading levels.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.71
Estimated
$0.73
Surprise
$-0.02
Surprise %
-2.20%
Revenue
Actual
$4.41B
Estimated
$4.39B
Surprise
+$21.49M
Surprise %
+0.49%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.71 | $0.85 | $0.78 | $0.62 | $9.96 | $11.41 | $10.55 | $9.20 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.73 | $0.83 | $0.78 | $0.66 | $9.73 | $11.55 | $10.98 | $9.28 |
| EPS Surprise | -$0.02 | +$0.02 | -$0.00 | -$0.04 | +$0.23 | -$0.14 | -$0.43 | -$0.08 |
| % Diff | -2.2% | +2.0% | -0.1% | -5.6% | +2.4% | -1.2% | -3.9% | -0.9% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $4.41B | $4.71B | $4.53B | $4.14B | $4.1B | $4.36B | $4.27B | $3.98B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $4.39B | $4.69B | $4.53B | $4.17B | $4.05B | $4.4B | $4.31B | $3.99B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$21.49M | +$16.39M | -$6.51M | -$35.34M | +$50.3M | -$40.35M | -$36.9M | -$9M |
| % Diff | +0.5% | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.8% | +1.2% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.2% |
Valuation
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) currently trades at a premium valuation relative to its sector peers, reflecting investor expectations of steady revenue and earnings growth driven by aggressive store expansion and consistent financial performance. Despite slightly elevated multiples, the stock enjoys a generally positive analyst consensus with upside potential seen in price targets averaging above $110. However, risks like margin pressures and insider selling temper enthusiasm, suggesting a balanced view on valuation.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 31.81 | 31.50 | 28.78 | 38.11 | 31.02 | 25.09 | 23.94 | 30.47 |
| Price to Sales | 17.44 | 19.43 | 17.01 | 19.84 | 16.70 | 15.30 | 13.96 | 16.78 |
| Price to Book | -100.87 | -102.22 | -62.48 | -60.48 | -49.88 | -46.41 | -37.66 | -47.95 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 90.34 | 89.62 | 81.52 | 104.16 | 88.25 | 72.95 | 68.60 | 85.57 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 19.78 | 21.18 | 18.80 | 21.76 | 18.60 | 17.04 | 15.73 | 18.66 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
The market sentiment for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is mixed to cautiously optimistic with a moderate buy consensus among analysts, tempered by recent earnings misses and ongoing cost pressures. While the company plans aggressive store expansion and shows revenue growth, rising SG&A costs and margin pressures have subdued investor confidence, resulting in a modest underperformance relative to the broader market.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) exhibits solid operational performance with record revenues and comparable store sales growth, supported by continued store expansion plans. Despite strong revenue growth, liquidity ratios are below typical comfort levels, and the capital structure shows negative debt-to-equity, reflecting significant balance sheet characteristics unique to the company. The overall financial health shows manageable risks but elevated leverage, while market sentiment remains positive with a majority of analysts rating ORLY as a buy.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | -13.79 | -9.39 | -6.75 | -5.97 | -5.78 | -5.36 | -4.87 | -5.45 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.53 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.77(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.12(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: -13.79(Low)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.64(High)
The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.
Frequently Asked Questions about ORLY
AI Answers: Common Questions About ORLY
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY is a good buy for long-term investors seeking quality and steady growth, but the current P/E of 31.8 and price near $94.47 (mid-range between $85.55 and $108.72) suggest waiting for a pullback or technical breakout for a better entry. The stock is fairly valued, not cheap, but supported by robust fundamentals.
Unless your thesis has changed or you need to reduce risk, selling is not warranted; fundamentals remain strong and long-term prospects are intact. However, if you are a short-term trader, the lack of momentum and mixed sentiment may justify trimming or waiting for a technical breakout.
The biggest risks are margin compression from rising SG&A and labor costs, short-term liquidity constraints (current ratio below 1), and long-term threats from EV adoption. Elevated leverage (debt/assets >0.6) and negative debt-to-equity also add financial complexity.
Analyst price targets average $108-$110, implying 13-14% upside from current levels. Technical resistance is at $95-96 and $108.72 (52-week high), with support at $92.50 and $85.55; a breakout above $96 could trigger renewed bullish momentum.
ORLY is fairly valued at a P/E of 31.8 and P/S over 17, both above sector averages but justified by its growth and profitability profile. The EV/EBITDA near 90 is high, reflecting investor willingness to pay for quality, but the margin of safety is lower than in prior years.
ORLY is fundamentally strong, with 6.4% revenue and 6.3% net income growth in 2025, gross margins above 51%, and net margin at 14.3%. Cash flow is solid, and earnings growth is organic and high quality, though liquidity ratios are below ideal.
Technically, ORLY is consolidating in a range with neutral to fading momentum and declining volume. Support is at $92.50 and $85.55, resistance at $95-96 and $108.72; a decisive move above $96 or below $92 would provide clearer direction.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (watch for beats or guidance raises), execution of the aggressive 2026 store expansion plan, and any macroeconomic shifts affecting auto parts demand or cost inflation trends.
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