ORLY AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)

$91.84+0.49 (+0.54%) today

Open
$91.66
High
$92.77
Low
$90.25
Volume
6.78M
Mkt Cap
$76.11B
52W High
$108.72
AI Verdict
Confidence 89%
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
BUY
Overall
Summary

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) offers a compelling long-term investment case, with robust fundamentals, consistent growth, and a resilient business model, though short-term technicals are neutral and valuation is elevated. While moderate risks exist from liquidity, cost inflation, and competitive pressures, the risk/reward profile remains favorable, especially for investors with a 6+ month horizon. Near-term, the stock may consolidate, but analyst targets and ongoing expansion support meaningful upside over the next year.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
HOLD
Short
HOLD
Medium
BUY
Long
Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) demonstrates consistent growth in revenue and net income, supported by strong margins and steady earnings delivery. The company continues its track record of solid execution within the auto parts industry, underpinned by both defensive business qualities and measured expansion.

Financial Highlights

Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026$0$1.5B$3.0B$4.5B$6.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)13%13.65%14.3%14.95%15.6%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$4.56B

10.24% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Income

$604.18M

12.20% YoY

Q1 2026

Net Margin

13.25%

Q1 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

10.24%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

12.20%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

13.00%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

EPS Growth YoY

14.92%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

19.43%

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Revenue4.6B4.4B4.7B4.5B4.1B4.1B4.4B4.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+10.24%+7.78%+7.82%+5.92%+4.04%+6.88%+3.83%+4.99%
Net Income604.2M605.2M725.9M668.6M538.5M551.1M665.5M622.8M
Net Income Growth YoY+12.20%+9.82%+9.08%+7.34%-1.60%-0.25%+2.41%-0.72%
EPS$0.72$0.72$0.86$0.78$0.63$0.64$0.76$0.71
EPS Growth YoY+14.92%+13.01%+12.43%+10.23%+1.34%+2.39%+6.09%+2.89%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

51.47%

TTM

Operating Margin

18.45%

TTM

Net Margin

13.25%

TTM

Return on Equity

-263.22%

TTM

Return on Assets

16.29%

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Gross Margin51.47%51.79%51.85%51.41%51.28%51.30%51.58%50.75%
Operating Margin18.45%18.77%20.74%20.21%17.92%18.04%20.55%20.21%
Net Margin13.25%13.71%15.43%14.78%13.02%13.46%15.25%14.58%
Return on Equity (ROE)-56.62%-79.29%-81.14%-54.28%-39.67%-40.20%-46.24%-39.34%
Return on Assets (ROA)3.78%3.90%4.73%4.49%3.75%3.97%4.90%4.65%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Technical analysis for ORLY currently indicates a neutral to slight bearish bias as the stock is testing key support levels with momentum waning. The price is consolidating near its 50-day moving average, with no clear breakout patterns yet established. Momentum indicators suggest a cooling off phase, requiring confirmation for potential rebound or further downside.

RSI
Hold
Neutral45

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-5.5% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend15

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$91.84
50 SMA
$92.61
150 SMA
$95.09
200 SMA
$97.21
52W High
$108.72
52W Low
$86.77

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
45Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) demonstrates consistent growth in revenue and net income, supported by strong margins and steady earnings delivery. The company continues its track record of solid execution within the auto parts industry, underpinned by both defensive business qualities and measured expansion.

Latest Earnings

Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.72

Estimated

$0.69

Surprise

+$0.03

Surprise %

+3.60%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$4.56B

Estimated

$4.46B

Surprise

+$102.58M

Surprise %

+2.30%

Historical Earnings

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.72$0.71$0.85$0.78$0.62$9.96$11.41$10.55
EPS (Estimated)$0.69$0.73$0.83$0.78$0.66$9.73$11.55$10.98
EPS Surprise+$0.03-$0.02+$0.02-$0.00-$0.04+$0.23-$0.14-$0.43
% Diff+3.6%-2.2%+2.0%-0.1%-5.6%+2.4%-1.2%-3.9%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$4.56B$4.41B$4.71B$4.53B$4.14B$4.1B$4.36B$4.27B
Revenue (Estimated)$4.46B$4.39B$4.69B$4.53B$4.17B$4.05B$4.4B$4.31B
Revenue Surprise+$102.58M+$21.49M+$16.39M-$6.51M-$35.34M+$50.3M-$40.35M-$36.9M
% Diff+2.3%+0.5%+0.3%-0.1%-0.8%+1.2%-0.9%-0.9%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) currently trades at a premium valuation relative to its peers and industry averages, reflecting its strong market position and consistent earnings growth. Analyst consensus is bullish with a moderate buy rating and price targets suggesting an upside of approximately 16-19% over the next 12 months. The company's financial health shows solid revenue and earnings growth, backed by strong margins and expansion plans, although some valuation multiples appear stretched.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

29.58

TTM

Price to Sales

4.18

TTM

Price to Book

-72.18

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

20.63

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

4.65

TTM

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Price to Earnings32.0331.8131.5028.7838.1131.0225.0923.94
Price to Sales16.9717.4419.4317.0119.8416.7015.3013.96
Price to Book-72.54-100.87-102.22-62.48-60.48-49.88-46.41-37.66
Enterprise Value to EBITDA87.9188.2489.6281.52104.1688.2572.9568.60
Enterprise Value to Revenue18.8319.3221.1818.8021.7618.6017.0415.73

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) currently presents a moderately positive market sentiment supported by strong earnings results and optimistic analyst ratings. While the stock trades near its 52-week lower range, analyst consensus suggests a potential upside driven by robust revenue growth and expansion plans. Investor sentiment is generally bullish, although valuation concerns temper enthusiasm among some market participants.

Analyst Recommendations

As of May 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.0 / 5.0
Based on 27 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
4
Buy
17
Strong Buy
5

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

O'Reilly Automotive exhibits solid financial performance characterized by consistent revenue growth and strong profitability. However, liquidity metrics indicate potential short-term constraints, and the company faces several operational and macroeconomic risks including cost inflation, competitive pressures, and slowing DIY demand. Despite these challenges, analysts maintain a strong buy perspective supported by expansion plans and positive earnings momentum.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.76

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Quick Ratio

0.13

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Debt-to-Equity

-8.18

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

Debt-to-Assets

0.52

Latest Quarter: Q1 2026

 Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.760.770.760.720.710.710.700.70
Quick Ratio0.130.120.110.110.100.090.100.11
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity-8.18-11.12-9.39-6.75-5.97-5.78-5.36-4.87
Debt-to-Assets0.520.510.520.530.530.530.530.54

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.76(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.13(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: -8.18(Low)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.52(High)

The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.

Frequently Asked Questions about ORLY

AI Answers: Common Questions About ORLY

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

ORLY is a good buy for long-term investors, trading at $92.96 with a P/E of 30.28 and analyst targets 16-22% above current levels. While valuation is elevated, it is supported by robust revenue growth (6.4% YoY), high margins, and a defensive business model. Short-term traders may want to wait for a technical breakout as momentum is currently neutral.

There is no strong reason to sell unless your horizon is short-term and you are concerned about near-term technical weakness; fundamentals remain robust and analyst targets suggest further upside. If you are a long-term holder, the thesis remains intact with continued growth and margin strength. Only consider trimming if you are overweight or need liquidity, as downside risks are moderate.

The biggest risks are liquidity-related, with a current ratio of 0.75 and quick ratio of 0.13, indicating limited short-term flexibility. Margin pressure from cost inflation and a shift toward lower-margin professional sales could impact profitability. Execution risks in aggressive store expansion and sensitivity to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer spending are also notable.

Analyst price targets range from $108 to $120, implying 16-22% upside from current levels. Technically, resistance is at $95.00 and $98.50, with support at $90.50; a break above $98.50 could trigger further gains, while a drop below $90.50 may lead to additional downside.

ORLY is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, with a P/E of 30.28, elevated EV/EBITDA, and P/S ratios compared to sector averages. The premium is justified by consistent double-digit growth and high margins, but further multiple expansion is unlikely unless growth accelerates. Investors should monitor for any slowdown that could compress these multiples.

ORLY is fundamentally strong, with gross margins above 51%, operating margins near 19%, and ROE around 50%. Revenue and EPS are growing steadily (revenue up 6.4% YoY, Q1 EPS up 15.5% YoY), and the company generates strong cash flow to support buybacks and growth. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but liquidity is a watchpoint.

Technical analysis is neutral to slightly bearish, with the stock consolidating near its 50-day moving average and RSI around 50. Key support is at $90.50 and resistance at $95.00 and $98.50; no clear breakout or breakdown has occurred. Traders should wait for a decisive move before taking positions.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (which have recently beaten estimates), continued aggressive store openings, and analyst price target upgrades. Macro events like changes in interest rates, inflation trends, or shifts in consumer spending could also impact the stock.

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