ORLY AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) offers a compelling long-term investment case, with robust fundamentals, consistent growth, and a resilient business model, though short-term technicals are neutral and valuation is elevated. While moderate risks exist from liquidity, cost inflation, and competitive pressures, the risk/reward profile remains favorable, especially for investors with a 6+ month horizon. Near-term, the stock may consolidate, but analyst targets and ongoing expansion support meaningful upside over the next year.
Fundamentals
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) demonstrates consistent growth in revenue and net income, supported by strong margins and steady earnings delivery. The company continues its track record of solid execution within the auto parts industry, underpinned by both defensive business qualities and measured expansion.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
10.24% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
12.20% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.6B | 4.4B | 4.7B | 4.5B | 4.1B | 4.1B | 4.4B | 4.3B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +10.24% | +7.78% | +7.82% | +5.92% | +4.04% | +6.88% | +3.83% | +4.99% |
| Net Income | 604.2M | 605.2M | 725.9M | 668.6M | 538.5M | 551.1M | 665.5M | 622.8M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +12.20% | +9.82% | +9.08% | +7.34% | -1.60% | -0.25% | +2.41% | -0.72% |
| EPS | $0.72 | $0.72 | $0.86 | $0.78 | $0.63 | $0.64 | $0.76 | $0.71 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +14.92% | +13.01% | +12.43% | +10.23% | +1.34% | +2.39% | +6.09% | +2.89% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 51.47% | 51.79% | 51.85% | 51.41% | 51.28% | 51.30% | 51.58% | 50.75% |
| Operating Margin | 18.45% | 18.77% | 20.74% | 20.21% | 17.92% | 18.04% | 20.55% | 20.21% |
| Net Margin | 13.25% | 13.71% | 15.43% | 14.78% | 13.02% | 13.46% | 15.25% | 14.58% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | -56.62% | -79.29% | -81.14% | -54.28% | -39.67% | -40.20% | -46.24% | -39.34% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 3.78% | 3.90% | 4.73% | 4.49% | 3.75% | 3.97% | 4.90% | 4.65% |
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis for ORLY currently indicates a neutral to slight bearish bias as the stock is testing key support levels with momentum waning. The price is consolidating near its 50-day moving average, with no clear breakout patterns yet established. Momentum indicators suggest a cooling off phase, requiring confirmation for potential rebound or further downside.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Range-bound market
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) demonstrates consistent growth in revenue and net income, supported by strong margins and steady earnings delivery. The company continues its track record of solid execution within the auto parts industry, underpinned by both defensive business qualities and measured expansion.
Latest Earnings
Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.72
Estimated
$0.69
Surprise
+$0.03
Surprise %
+3.60%
Revenue
Actual
$4.56B
Estimated
$4.46B
Surprise
+$102.58M
Surprise %
+2.30%
Historical Earnings
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.72 | $0.71 | $0.85 | $0.78 | $0.62 | $9.96 | $11.41 | $10.55 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.69 | $0.73 | $0.83 | $0.78 | $0.66 | $9.73 | $11.55 | $10.98 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.03 | -$0.02 | +$0.02 | -$0.00 | -$0.04 | +$0.23 | -$0.14 | -$0.43 |
| % Diff | +3.6% | -2.2% | +2.0% | -0.1% | -5.6% | +2.4% | -1.2% | -3.9% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $4.56B | $4.41B | $4.71B | $4.53B | $4.14B | $4.1B | $4.36B | $4.27B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $4.46B | $4.39B | $4.69B | $4.53B | $4.17B | $4.05B | $4.4B | $4.31B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$102.58M | +$21.49M | +$16.39M | -$6.51M | -$35.34M | +$50.3M | -$40.35M | -$36.9M |
| % Diff | +2.3% | +0.5% | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.8% | +1.2% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
Valuation
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) currently trades at a premium valuation relative to its peers and industry averages, reflecting its strong market position and consistent earnings growth. Analyst consensus is bullish with a moderate buy rating and price targets suggesting an upside of approximately 16-19% over the next 12 months. The company's financial health shows solid revenue and earnings growth, backed by strong margins and expansion plans, although some valuation multiples appear stretched.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 32.03 | 31.81 | 31.50 | 28.78 | 38.11 | 31.02 | 25.09 | 23.94 |
| Price to Sales | 16.97 | 17.44 | 19.43 | 17.01 | 19.84 | 16.70 | 15.30 | 13.96 |
| Price to Book | -72.54 | -100.87 | -102.22 | -62.48 | -60.48 | -49.88 | -46.41 | -37.66 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 87.91 | 88.24 | 89.62 | 81.52 | 104.16 | 88.25 | 72.95 | 68.60 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 18.83 | 19.32 | 21.18 | 18.80 | 21.76 | 18.60 | 17.04 | 15.73 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) currently presents a moderately positive market sentiment supported by strong earnings results and optimistic analyst ratings. While the stock trades near its 52-week lower range, analyst consensus suggests a potential upside driven by robust revenue growth and expansion plans. Investor sentiment is generally bullish, although valuation concerns temper enthusiasm among some market participants.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
O'Reilly Automotive exhibits solid financial performance characterized by consistent revenue growth and strong profitability. However, liquidity metrics indicate potential short-term constraints, and the company faces several operational and macroeconomic risks including cost inflation, competitive pressures, and slowing DIY demand. Despite these challenges, analysts maintain a strong buy perspective supported by expansion plans and positive earnings momentum.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | -8.18 | -11.12 | -9.39 | -6.75 | -5.97 | -5.78 | -5.36 | -4.87 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.54 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.76(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.13(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: -8.18(Low)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.52(High)
The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.
Frequently Asked Questions about ORLY
AI Answers: Common Questions About ORLY
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY is a good buy for long-term investors, trading at $92.96 with a P/E of 30.28 and analyst targets 16-22% above current levels. While valuation is elevated, it is supported by robust revenue growth (6.4% YoY), high margins, and a defensive business model. Short-term traders may want to wait for a technical breakout as momentum is currently neutral.
There is no strong reason to sell unless your horizon is short-term and you are concerned about near-term technical weakness; fundamentals remain robust and analyst targets suggest further upside. If you are a long-term holder, the thesis remains intact with continued growth and margin strength. Only consider trimming if you are overweight or need liquidity, as downside risks are moderate.
The biggest risks are liquidity-related, with a current ratio of 0.75 and quick ratio of 0.13, indicating limited short-term flexibility. Margin pressure from cost inflation and a shift toward lower-margin professional sales could impact profitability. Execution risks in aggressive store expansion and sensitivity to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer spending are also notable.
Analyst price targets range from $108 to $120, implying 16-22% upside from current levels. Technically, resistance is at $95.00 and $98.50, with support at $90.50; a break above $98.50 could trigger further gains, while a drop below $90.50 may lead to additional downside.
ORLY is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, with a P/E of 30.28, elevated EV/EBITDA, and P/S ratios compared to sector averages. The premium is justified by consistent double-digit growth and high margins, but further multiple expansion is unlikely unless growth accelerates. Investors should monitor for any slowdown that could compress these multiples.
ORLY is fundamentally strong, with gross margins above 51%, operating margins near 19%, and ROE around 50%. Revenue and EPS are growing steadily (revenue up 6.4% YoY, Q1 EPS up 15.5% YoY), and the company generates strong cash flow to support buybacks and growth. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage but liquidity is a watchpoint.
Technical analysis is neutral to slightly bearish, with the stock consolidating near its 50-day moving average and RSI around 50. Key support is at $90.50 and resistance at $95.00 and $98.50; no clear breakout or breakdown has occurred. Traders should wait for a decisive move before taking positions.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (which have recently beaten estimates), continued aggressive store openings, and analyst price target upgrades. Macro events like changes in interest rates, inflation trends, or shifts in consumer spending could also impact the stock.
Want a Personalized Answer?
Get AI-powered insights tailored to your risk tolerance and investment goals.