PCAR AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
PACCAR (PCAR) is fundamentally strong with a robust balance sheet and industry leadership, but faces near-term cyclical headwinds, margin compression, and mixed sentiment. The stock is fairly valued, with technicals suggesting consolidation and no decisive momentum, making it best suited for patient investors awaiting a clearer trend or more attractive entry point.
Fundamentals
PACCAR displays solid underlying fundamentals with consistent profitability and above-industry-average margins, though recent financial results signal growth moderation after a period of exceptional performance. The company’s valuation reflects its track record, but headwinds in revenue and margin compression require prudent monitoring. Overall, PCAR is a high-quality industrial name, but investors should be aware of cyclical risks.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
-16.22% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
19.84% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.2B | 6.8B | 6.7B | 7.5B | 7.4B | 7.9B | 8.2B | 8.8B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -16.22% | -13.74% | -19.03% | -14.38% | -14.90% | -12.88% | -5.39% | -1.23% |
| Net Income | 605.3M | 556.9M | 590.0M | 723.8M | 505.1M | 872.0M | 972.1M | 1.1B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +19.84% | -36.14% | -39.31% | -35.52% | -57.74% | -38.47% | -20.87% | -8.07% |
| EPS | $1.15 | $1.06 | $1.12 | $1.38 | $0.96 | $1.66 | $1.85 | $2.14 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +19.79% | -36.14% | -39.46% | -35.51% | -57.89% | -38.52% | -20.94% | -8.15% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 13.12% | 13.83% | 16.18% | 16.99% | 17.72% | 18.60% | 19.17% | 20.40% |
| Operating Margin | 8.97% | 8.83% | 9.53% | 11.16% | 11.89% | 12.72% | 13.63% | 15.29% |
| Net Margin | 9.71% | 8.16% | 8.84% | 9.64% | 6.79% | 11.03% | 11.80% | 12.80% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 3.06% | 2.89% | 3.05% | 3.82% | 2.80% | 4.98% | 5.21% | 6.34% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 1.39% | 1.26% | 1.33% | 1.64% | 1.18% | 2.01% | 2.25% | 2.73% |
Technical Analysis
PCAR is currently in an advancing phase with a developing uptrend signaled by a golden cross (50 SMA above 200 SMA) and moderate ADX levels. Price is below the 50 SMA but above the 200 SMA, indicating some consolidation within a broader upward trend. Momentum is neutral, with RSI showing no extremes, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for a decisive directional move.
No extreme reading
Mixed signals
Trend developing
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
PACCAR displays solid underlying fundamentals with consistent profitability and above-industry-average margins, though recent financial results signal growth moderation after a period of exceptional performance. The company’s valuation reflects its track record, but headwinds in revenue and margin compression require prudent monitoring. Overall, PCAR is a high-quality industrial name, but investors should be aware of cyclical risks.
Latest Earnings
Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$1.15
Estimated
$1.15
Surprise
$0.00
Surprise %
0.00%
Revenue
Actual
$6.23B
Estimated
$6.44B
Surprise
-$205.41M
Surprise %
-3.19%
Historical Earnings
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $1.15 | $1.06 | $1.12 | $1.37 | $1.46 | $1.66 | $1.85 | $2.13 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $1.15 | $1.06 | $1.15 | $1.29 | $1.58 | $1.70 | $1.82 | $2.14 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.00 | +$0.00 | -$0.03 | +$0.08 | -$0.12 | -$0.04 | +$0.03 | -$0.01 |
| % Diff | +0.0% | +0.0% | -2.6% | +6.2% | -7.6% | -2.4% | +1.6% | -0.5% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $6.23B | $6.25B | $6.67B | $7.51B | $7.44B | $7.91B | $8.24B | $8.77B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $6.44B | $6.05B | $6.01B | $6.99B | $7.2B | $7.59B | $7.66B | $8.27B |
| Revenue Surprise | -$205.41M | +$197.46M | +$664.07M | +$519.65M | +$245.79M | +$317.55M | +$580.49M | +$502.5M |
| % Diff | -3.2% | +3.3% | +11.1% | +7.4% | +3.4% | +4.2% | +7.6% | +6.1% |
Valuation
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) currently trades at a valuation suggestive of reasonable investor confidence with an outlook tempered by mixed growth and margin pressures. While the stock shows strong financial fundamentals and consistent profitability, recent revenue declines and high EV/EBITDA multiples highlight cautious sentiment among market participants. Analyst consensus largely positions PCAR as a moderate buy or hold, reflecting a balanced view on its near-to-medium term growth potential and valuation.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 25.13 | 25.86 | 21.91 | 17.27 | 25.34 | 15.67 | 13.33 | 11.91 |
| Price to Sales | 9.76 | 8.45 | 7.75 | 6.66 | 6.88 | 6.91 | 6.29 | 6.10 |
| Price to Book | 3.08 | 2.99 | 2.67 | 2.64 | 2.84 | 3.12 | 2.78 | 3.02 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 125.44 | 52.03 | 72.77 | 57.74 | 56.27 | 51.65 | 44.82 | 39.43 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 11.25 | 7.09 | 9.18 | 8.04 | 8.24 | 8.03 | 7.34 | 7.07 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
PACCAR (PCAR) exhibits a mixed sentiment backdrop in early May 2026, balancing a recent short-term decline triggered by a Q1 earnings miss against a generally constructive long-term outlook supported by favorable valuation metrics and infrastructure-driven demand prospects. While some analysts have downgraded targets amid revenue softness, the broader consensus leans toward a moderate buy with optimism around dividend increases and compliance-driven truck demand.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
PACCAR exhibits a strong financial position with robust liquidity and manageable leverage, supporting a stable investment profile. Despite a decrease in overall revenues, earnings growth and operational cash flow remain positive, underpinned by strengthening truck market demand and investment in electric vehicle innovation. Key risks include raw material price volatility, supply chain constraints, and economic factors impacting truck demand.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 3.11 | 1.70 | 3.12 | 3.02 | 2.79 | 2.64 | 2.87 | 2.78 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.91 | 1.42 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.45 | 2.65 | 2.54 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.81 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.35 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 3.11(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 2.91(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.76(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.34(Moderate)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about PCAR
AI Answers: Common Questions About PCAR
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about PACCAR Inc
PCAR is not a strong buy at current levels ($114.30) given a P/E of 24.7, fair valuation, and near-term revenue and margin declines. While the company is fundamentally sound and offers long-term stability, the stock is consolidating technically and lacks a clear near-term catalyst for upside.
There is no urgent reason to sell unless your thesis has changed or you expect a deeper cyclical downturn; the fundamentals remain solid and technicals do not indicate a breakdown. However, if you seek higher growth or are concerned by recent margin compression and earnings misses, trimming may be considered.
Key risks include continued revenue softness (Q1 2026 revenue down ~16% YoY), gross margin compression to ~13%, and exposure to raw material price swings and supply chain disruptions. While liquidity is strong (current ratio >3, quick ratio ~2.9), macroeconomic weakness could further pressure demand.
Technical resistance is at $120-$123, with support at $113.5 and $110; analyst price targets range from $105 to $145, with consensus clustering around $120-$130. A decisive move above $120 could open upside, while a break below $113.5 signals risk to $110.
PCAR is fairly valued: P/E at 24.7 is below peer averages, P/S at 2.2 is moderate, but EV/EBITDA is elevated versus industry norms. The market is pricing in stability and some future improvement, but not aggressive growth.
Fundamentals are robust with above-industry-average margins (though now compressed), strong free cash flow, and a conservative balance sheet (debt/equity ~0.75, interest coverage ~26). However, revenue and EPS are declining YoY and QoQ, reflecting cyclical normalization.
Technicals are neutral: price is consolidating below the 50 SMA ($119.74) but above key support ($113.47), RSI is neutral at 38.6, and no strong momentum is present. Wait for a breakout above $120 or a retest of support for clearer direction.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (watch for signs of revenue and margin stabilization), regulatory-driven truck demand (environmental compliance), and potential technical breakout above $120. Macro trends in freight and input costs will also be important.
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