PCAR AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
PACCAR (PCAR) is a fundamentally strong industrial leader with resilient margins, robust recurring revenues, and a sound balance sheet, but is currently trading at a premium valuation with mixed sentiment and moderate technical overbought signals. Near-term upside appears limited due to cyclical risks and valuation constraints, though long-term prospects remain intact if growth drivers materialize. Investors are best served by holding and monitoring for either a pullback or clear acceleration in earnings growth.
Fundamentals
PACCAR has established a position as a leading industrial manufacturer with strong fundamentals despite the cyclical challenges of the truck and machinery sector. Its disciplined financial management, consistent profitability, and history of solid earnings performance underpin its investment appeal, although the current valuation appears rich relative to historical averages.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
-13.74% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-36.14% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.8B | 6.7B | 7.5B | 7.4B | 7.9B | 8.2B | 8.8B | 8.7B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -13.74% | -19.03% | -14.38% | -14.90% | -12.88% | -5.39% | -1.23% | +3.20% |
| Net Income | 556.9M | 590.0M | 723.8M | 505.1M | 872.0M | 972.1M | 1.1B | 1.2B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -36.14% | -39.31% | -35.52% | -57.74% | -38.47% | -20.87% | -8.07% | +62.87% |
| EPS | $1.06 | $1.12 | $1.38 | $0.96 | $1.66 | $1.85 | $2.14 | $2.28 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -36.14% | -39.46% | -35.51% | -57.89% | -38.52% | -20.94% | -8.15% | +62.86% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 13.83% | 16.18% | 16.99% | 17.72% | 18.60% | 19.17% | 20.40% | 21.39% |
| Operating Margin | 8.83% | 9.53% | 11.16% | 11.89% | 12.72% | 13.63% | 15.29% | 16.26% |
| Net Margin | 8.16% | 8.84% | 9.64% | 6.79% | 11.03% | 11.80% | 12.80% | 13.67% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 2.89% | 3.05% | 3.82% | 2.80% | 4.98% | 5.21% | 6.34% | 7.08% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 1.26% | 1.33% | 1.64% | 1.18% | 2.01% | 2.25% | 2.73% | 2.96% |
Technical Analysis
PCAR exhibits a predominantly bullish technical outlook with a strong long-term uptrend supported by moving averages and a positive MACD. While the RSI is near neutral at 66, the Stochastic RSI indicates an overbought short-term condition, suggesting caution for new entries. Support is solid around 115.97-118.34, and resistance is encountered near recent highs around 118-119.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Trend developing
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
PACCAR has established a position as a leading industrial manufacturer with strong fundamentals despite the cyclical challenges of the truck and machinery sector. Its disciplined financial management, consistent profitability, and history of solid earnings performance underpin its investment appeal, although the current valuation appears rich relative to historical averages.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$1.06
Estimated
$1.06
Surprise
$0.00
Surprise %
0.00%
Revenue
Actual
$6.25B
Estimated
$6.05B
Surprise
+$197.46M
Surprise %
+3.26%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $1.06 | $1.12 | $1.37 | $1.46 | $1.66 | $1.85 | $2.13 | $2.27 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $1.06 | $1.15 | $1.29 | $1.58 | $1.70 | $1.82 | $2.14 | $2.20 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.00 | -$0.03 | +$0.08 | -$0.12 | -$0.04 | +$0.03 | -$0.01 | +$0.07 |
| % Diff | +0.0% | -2.6% | +6.2% | -7.6% | -2.4% | +1.6% | -0.5% | +3.2% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $6.25B | $6.67B | $7.51B | $7.44B | $7.91B | $8.24B | $8.77B | $8.74B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $6.05B | $6.01B | $6.99B | $7.2B | $7.59B | $7.66B | $8.27B | $8.25B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$197.46M | +$664.07M | +$519.65M | +$245.79M | +$317.55M | +$580.49M | +$502.5M | +$491.54M |
| % Diff | +3.3% | +11.1% | +7.4% | +3.4% | +4.2% | +7.6% | +6.1% | +6.0% |
Valuation
PACCAR exhibits a valuation profile consistent with a premium industrial machinery company facing recent revenue and earnings headwinds. Analyst consensus leans towards a Hold, with price targets indicating limited near-term upside but some long-term growth potential supported by operational strengths and a robust product lineup. Valuation multiples are elevated but justified to some extent by market positioning and solid cash flow generation despite margin pressures.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 25.86 | 21.91 | 17.27 | 25.34 | 15.67 | 13.33 | 11.91 | 13.51 |
| Price to Sales | 8.45 | 7.75 | 6.66 | 6.88 | 6.91 | 6.29 | 6.10 | 7.39 |
| Price to Book | 2.99 | 2.67 | 2.64 | 2.84 | 3.12 | 2.78 | 3.02 | 3.83 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 52.03 | 72.77 | 57.74 | 56.27 | 51.65 | 44.82 | 39.43 | 43.72 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 7.09 | 9.18 | 8.04 | 8.24 | 8.03 | 7.34 | 7.07 | 8.29 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
PCAR exhibits a mixed yet cautiously optimistic sentiment in the market, supported by a majority of analyst Hold ratings and a moderate upside potential near $125. Recent positive news on parts and financial services growth contrasts with concerns about truck deliveries and insider selling, creating a nuanced investment outlook. Retail interest is stable with improving investor confidence reflected in declining short interest and steady stock performance year-to-date.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
PACCAR displays a stable financial foundation with strong liquidity and moderate leverage, supported by a diversified business model balancing truck manufacturing, parts, and financial services. However, industry-specific cyclicality, evolving emissions regulations, and technology transitions introduce both operational and market risks. While demand recovery and strong parts segment growth bode well, environmental compliance costs and freight market dynamics warrant careful monitoring from an investment risk standpoint.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.70 | 3.12 | 3.02 | 2.79 | 2.64 | 2.87 | 2.78 | 2.73 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.42 | 2.91 | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.45 | 2.65 | 2.54 | 2.49 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.00 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.83 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.70(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 1.42(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.000
Debt-to-Assets: 0.000
The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.
Frequently Asked Questions about PCAR
AI Answers: Common Questions About PCAR
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about PACCAR Inc
PCAR is not an ideal buy at current levels given its P/E of 28.2x (well above sector and historical averages) and price near all-time highs ($127.19 vs 52W high of $131.88). While the company is fundamentally strong, technicals suggest overbought conditions and sentiment is mixed, so waiting for a pullback or clearer growth catalyst is prudent.
There is no urgent reason to sell if already holding, as fundamentals remain robust and the technical uptrend is intact. However, with valuation stretched and short-term momentum fading, consider trimming if overweight or if your thesis was based on a quick rebound rather than long-term holding.
The biggest risks are a cyclical downturn in truck demand, elevated compliance costs from EPA27 emissions standards, and potential margin compression if freight markets weaken. Sentinel notes liquidity remains strong (current ratio ~1.7), but margin pressures and regulatory costs could challenge profitability if growth stalls.
Upside technical target is the 52-week high at $131.88, with strong support at $115.97-$118.34. Analyst price targets cluster around $125, indicating limited near-term upside and a likely trading range unless a new catalyst emerges.
PCAR is fairly to slightly overvalued with a P/E of 28.2x, elevated EV/EBITDA, and a price-to-sales ratio reflecting optimism about future growth. Valorem notes these multiples are above sector and historical norms, justified only if growth resumes; otherwise, the stock could see multiple compression.
PACCAR is fundamentally strong, with operating and net margins above industry averages, ROE in the mid- to high-teens, and robust recurring revenues from parts and finance. Cash flow is solid, and the balance sheet is healthy with moderate leverage and strong liquidity.
Technicals are bullish long-term, with price above the 50- and 200-day moving averages and a positive MACD. However, RSI at 66 and Stochastic RSI over 75 indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a short-term pause or pullback is likely before further upside.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (especially parts/finance growth vs. truck deliveries), regulatory-driven pre-buy cycles (EPA27), and progress in electric/digital truck offerings. Macro recovery in freight and any positive surprises in margin trends could also drive upside.
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