PCAR AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

$127.19+0.14 (+0.11%) today

Open
$127.25
High
$127.94
Low
$126.47
Volume
2.47M
Mkt Cap
$66.89B
52W High
$131.88
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
PCARPACCAR Inc
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

PACCAR (PCAR) is a fundamentally strong industrial leader with resilient margins, robust recurring revenues, and a sound balance sheet, but is currently trading at a premium valuation with mixed sentiment and moderate technical overbought signals. Near-term upside appears limited due to cyclical risks and valuation constraints, though long-term prospects remain intact if growth drivers materialize. Investors are best served by holding and monitoring for either a pullback or clear acceleration in earnings growth.

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Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

PACCAR has established a position as a leading industrial manufacturer with strong fundamentals despite the cyclical challenges of the truck and machinery sector. Its disciplined financial management, consistent profitability, and history of solid earnings performance underpin its investment appeal, although the current valuation appears rich relative to historical averages.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B$8.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)6%8%10%12%14%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$6.82B

-13.74% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$556.90M

-36.14% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

8.16%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

-13.74%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-36.14%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-13.86%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-36.14%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

9.89%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue6.8B6.7B7.5B7.4B7.9B8.2B8.8B8.7B
Revenue Growth YoY-13.74%-19.03%-14.38%-14.90%-12.88%-5.39%-1.23%+3.20%
Net Income556.9M590.0M723.8M505.1M872.0M972.1M1.1B1.2B
Net Income Growth YoY-36.14%-39.31%-35.52%-57.74%-38.47%-20.87%-8.07%+62.87%
EPS$1.06$1.12$1.38$0.96$1.66$1.85$2.14$2.28
EPS Growth YoY-36.14%-39.46%-35.51%-57.89%-38.52%-20.94%-8.15%+62.86%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

16.23%

TTM

Operating Margin

10.41%

TTM

Net Margin

8.35%

TTM

Return on Equity

12.57%

TTM

Return on Assets

5.36%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin13.83%16.18%16.99%17.72%18.60%19.17%20.40%21.39%
Operating Margin8.83%9.53%11.16%11.89%12.72%13.63%15.29%16.26%
Net Margin8.16%8.84%9.64%6.79%11.03%11.80%12.80%13.67%
Return on Equity (ROE)2.89%3.05%3.82%2.80%4.98%5.21%6.34%7.08%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.26%1.33%1.64%1.18%2.01%2.25%2.73%2.96%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

PCAR exhibits a predominantly bullish technical outlook with a strong long-term uptrend supported by moving averages and a positive MACD. While the RSI is near neutral at 66, the Stochastic RSI indicates an overbought short-term condition, suggesting caution for new entries. Support is solid around 115.97-118.34, and resistance is encountered near recent highs around 118-119.

RSI
Hold
Neutral69

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+18.5% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend23

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$127.19
50 SMA
$121.55
150 SMA
$110.50
200 SMA
$107.38
52W High
$131.88
52W Low
$84.65

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
69Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

PACCAR has established a position as a leading industrial manufacturer with strong fundamentals despite the cyclical challenges of the truck and machinery sector. Its disciplined financial management, consistent profitability, and history of solid earnings performance underpin its investment appeal, although the current valuation appears rich relative to historical averages.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Met

Actual

$1.06

Estimated

$1.06

Surprise

$0.00

Surprise %

0.00%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$6.25B

Estimated

$6.05B

Surprise

+$197.46M

Surprise %

+3.26%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$1.06$1.12$1.37$1.46$1.66$1.85$2.13$2.27
EPS (Estimated)$1.06$1.15$1.29$1.58$1.70$1.82$2.14$2.20
EPS Surprise+$0.00-$0.03+$0.08-$0.12-$0.04+$0.03-$0.01+$0.07
% Diff+0.0%-2.6%+6.2%-7.6%-2.4%+1.6%-0.5%+3.2%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$6.25B$6.67B$7.51B$7.44B$7.91B$8.24B$8.77B$8.74B
Revenue (Estimated)$6.05B$6.01B$6.99B$7.2B$7.59B$7.66B$8.27B$8.25B
Revenue Surprise+$197.46M+$664.07M+$519.65M+$245.79M+$317.55M+$580.49M+$502.5M+$491.54M
% Diff+3.3%+11.1%+7.4%+3.4%+4.2%+7.6%+6.1%+6.0%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

PACCAR exhibits a valuation profile consistent with a premium industrial machinery company facing recent revenue and earnings headwinds. Analyst consensus leans towards a Hold, with price targets indicating limited near-term upside but some long-term growth potential supported by operational strengths and a robust product lineup. Valuation multiples are elevated but justified to some extent by market positioning and solid cash flow generation despite margin pressures.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

28.16

TTM

Price to Sales

2.35

TTM

Price to Book

3.47

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

14.75

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

2.03

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings25.8621.9117.2725.3415.6713.3311.9113.51
Price to Sales8.457.756.666.886.916.296.107.39
Price to Book2.992.672.642.843.122.783.023.83
Enterprise Value to EBITDA52.0372.7757.7456.2751.6544.8239.4343.72
Enterprise Value to Revenue7.099.188.048.248.037.347.078.29

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

PCAR exhibits a mixed yet cautiously optimistic sentiment in the market, supported by a majority of analyst Hold ratings and a moderate upside potential near $125. Recent positive news on parts and financial services growth contrasts with concerns about truck deliveries and insider selling, creating a nuanced investment outlook. Retail interest is stable with improving investor confidence reflected in declining short interest and steady stock performance year-to-date.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.4 / 5.0
Based on 21 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
14
Buy
6
Strong Buy
1

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

PACCAR displays a stable financial foundation with strong liquidity and moderate leverage, supported by a diversified business model balancing truck manufacturing, parts, and financial services. However, industry-specific cyclicality, evolving emissions regulations, and technology transitions introduce both operational and market risks. While demand recovery and strong parts segment growth bode well, environmental compliance costs and freight market dynamics warrant careful monitoring from an investment risk standpoint.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.70

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.42

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.00

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.00

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.703.123.022.792.642.872.782.73
Quick Ratio1.422.912.802.602.452.652.542.49
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.000.820.840.870.910.830.810.83
Debt-to-Assets0.000.360.360.370.370.360.350.35

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.70(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 1.42(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.000

Debt-to-Assets: 0.000

The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.

Frequently Asked Questions about PCAR

AI Answers: Common Questions About PCAR

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about PACCAR Inc

PCAR is not an ideal buy at current levels given its P/E of 28.2x (well above sector and historical averages) and price near all-time highs ($127.19 vs 52W high of $131.88). While the company is fundamentally strong, technicals suggest overbought conditions and sentiment is mixed, so waiting for a pullback or clearer growth catalyst is prudent.

There is no urgent reason to sell if already holding, as fundamentals remain robust and the technical uptrend is intact. However, with valuation stretched and short-term momentum fading, consider trimming if overweight or if your thesis was based on a quick rebound rather than long-term holding.

The biggest risks are a cyclical downturn in truck demand, elevated compliance costs from EPA27 emissions standards, and potential margin compression if freight markets weaken. Sentinel notes liquidity remains strong (current ratio ~1.7), but margin pressures and regulatory costs could challenge profitability if growth stalls.

Upside technical target is the 52-week high at $131.88, with strong support at $115.97-$118.34. Analyst price targets cluster around $125, indicating limited near-term upside and a likely trading range unless a new catalyst emerges.

PCAR is fairly to slightly overvalued with a P/E of 28.2x, elevated EV/EBITDA, and a price-to-sales ratio reflecting optimism about future growth. Valorem notes these multiples are above sector and historical norms, justified only if growth resumes; otherwise, the stock could see multiple compression.

PACCAR is fundamentally strong, with operating and net margins above industry averages, ROE in the mid- to high-teens, and robust recurring revenues from parts and finance. Cash flow is solid, and the balance sheet is healthy with moderate leverage and strong liquidity.

Technicals are bullish long-term, with price above the 50- and 200-day moving averages and a positive MACD. However, RSI at 66 and Stochastic RSI over 75 indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a short-term pause or pullback is likely before further upside.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (especially parts/finance growth vs. truck deliveries), regulatory-driven pre-buy cycles (EPA27), and progress in electric/digital truck offerings. Macro recovery in freight and any positive surprises in margin trends could also drive upside.

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