PCAR AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
PACCAR Inc (PCAR)
PACCAR (PCAR) is fundamentally solid with a strong balance sheet and leading market position, but faces near-term cyclical headwinds and margin compression. Valuation is fair relative to peers, and sentiment is cautiously optimistic, yet technicals suggest consolidation rather than a breakout. The stock is best held at current levels, with better entry opportunities likely if earnings or the truck cycle show clearer signs of recovery.
Fundamentals
PACCAR (PCAR) maintains a fundamentally strong business with steady financial performance, despite a recent year-over-year decline in both revenues and earnings following an extraordinarily robust 2023. Margins, while compressed compared to last year, remain healthy for the industry, reflecting disciplined cost management and resilient demand. The stock's valuation appears elevated relative to earnings growth, warranting careful consideration of near-term cyclical risks.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
-13.74% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-36.14% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.8B | 6.7B | 7.5B | 7.4B | 7.9B | 8.2B | 8.8B | 8.7B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -13.74% | -19.03% | -14.38% | -14.90% | -12.88% | -5.25% | -1.23% | +3.20% |
| Net Income | 556.9M | 590.0M | 723.8M | 505.1M | 872.0M | 972.1M | 1.1B | 1.2B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -36.14% | -39.31% | -35.52% | -57.74% | -38.47% | -20.87% | -8.07% | +62.87% |
| EPS | $1.06 | $1.12 | $1.38 | $0.96 | $1.66 | $1.85 | $2.14 | $2.28 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -36.14% | -39.46% | -35.51% | -57.89% | -38.52% | -20.94% | -8.15% | +62.86% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
Technical indicator data for PCAR is currently unavailable; however, price action near the 52-week high and recent volume trends suggest consolidation after a strong uptrend. Key support and resistance levels need to be identified through additional data sources to clarify the current trading setup.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Trend developing
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
PACCAR (PCAR) maintains a fundamentally strong business with steady financial performance, despite a recent year-over-year decline in both revenues and earnings following an extraordinarily robust 2023. Margins, while compressed compared to last year, remain healthy for the industry, reflecting disciplined cost management and resilient demand. The stock's valuation appears elevated relative to earnings growth, warranting careful consideration of near-term cyclical risks.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$1.06
Estimated
$1.06
Surprise
$0.00
Surprise %
0.00%
Revenue
Actual
$6.82B
Estimated
$6.05B
Surprise
+$766.16M
Surprise %
+12.65%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $1.06 | $1.12 | $1.37 | $1.46 | $1.66 | $1.85 | $2.13 | $2.27 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $1.06 | $1.15 | $1.29 | $1.58 | $1.70 | $1.82 | $2.14 | $2.20 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.00 | -$0.03 | +$0.08 | -$0.12 | -$0.04 | +$0.03 | -$0.01 | +$0.07 |
| % Diff | +0.0% | -2.6% | +6.2% | -7.6% | -2.4% | +1.6% | -0.5% | +3.2% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $6.82B | $6.67B | $7.51B | $7.44B | $7.91B | $8.24B | $8.77B | $8.74B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $6.05B | $6.01B | $6.99B | $7.2B | $7.59B | $7.66B | $8.27B | $8.25B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$766.16M | +$664.07M | +$519.65M | +$245.79M | +$317.55M | +$580.49M | +$502.5M | +$491.54M |
| % Diff | +12.7% | +11.1% | +7.4% | +3.4% | +4.2% | +7.6% | +6.1% | +6.0% |
Valuation
PCAR currently trades at a valuation that is in line with or slightly cheaper than its machinery industry peers, supported by solid fundamentals despite recent growth headwinds. The stock shows reasonable multiples relative to both the sector and its historical averages, with some margin of safety indicated by DCF-based fair value estimates notably above current price levels. However, slower revenue and earnings growth trends present caution in the near term.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 25.86 | 21.91 | 17.27 | 25.34 | 15.67 | 13.33 | 11.91 | 13.51 |
| Price to Sales | 8.45 | 7.75 | 6.66 | 6.88 | 6.91 | 6.29 | 6.10 | 7.39 |
| Price to Book | 2.99 | 2.67 | 2.64 | 2.84 | 3.12 | 2.78 | 3.02 | 3.83 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 52.03 | 72.77 | 57.74 | 56.27 | 51.65 | 44.82 | 39.43 | 43.72 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 7.09 | 9.18 | 8.04 | 8.24 | 8.03 | 7.34 | 7.07 | 8.29 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Paccar (PCAR) exhibits a mixed but cautiously optimistic market sentiment, supported by a generally stable financial outlook and positive analyst engagement, with the majority rating it as Hold and some upgrades to Buy or Outperform. While insider selling persists, institutional ownership remains strong, and social media sentiment reflects moderate enthusiasm over improving freight conditions and expected margin recovery. Recent earnings aligned with expectations but indicated revenue softness; however, forward-looking catalyst projections for 2026 underpin a cautiously positive mood despite some short-term volatility.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
PACCAR maintains a solid financial position with strong liquidity and moderate leverage. While market demand and regulatory transitions introduce cyclical and operational risks, the company benefits from diversified revenue streams and a competitive manufacturing footprint. Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, reflecting balanced upside potential against industry headwinds.
Liquidity & Solvency
Frequently Asked Questions about PCAR
AI Answers: Common Questions About PCAR
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about PACCAR Inc
PCAR is not a strong buy at current levels ($121.91, P/E 27.03) as valuation is fair and the company is in a cyclical earnings trough. While the balance sheet is robust and long-term prospects are positive, near-term growth is negative and technicals show consolidation, suggesting better entry points may emerge.
There is no urgent reason to sell unless your thesis was predicated on near-term growth or a technical breakout, both of which are lacking. Fundamentals remain solid and downside is limited by strong liquidity, but upside is also capped; holding is prudent unless your risk tolerance or time horizon has changed.
The biggest risks are further cyclical downturns in truck demand (2025 revenue -15.5% YoY, EPS -42.9%), regulatory and technology transition costs, and supply chain disruptions. While liquidity is strong (current ratio 1.7, no reported debt), earnings volatility and margin pressure could persist if the macro environment weakens.
Key resistance is at $131.88 (52-week high), with support around $121-122. Analyst targets cluster in the $125-136 range, reflecting cautious optimism for recovery but no near-term breakout; upside is limited unless a new catalyst emerges.
PCAR is fairly valued with a P/E of 27.03 and EV/EBITDA above some peers, justified by its market position and cash flow but capped by negative growth. DCF estimates suggest some margin of safety, but no deep discount; valuation does not present a compelling bargain.
Fundamentally, PCAR remains strong with healthy margins (gross 16.2%, net 8.4%), robust cash generation, and a zero-debt balance sheet. However, 2025 saw significant revenue and earnings declines, so near-term growth is weak even as the long-term outlook is positive.
Technically, the stock is consolidating near support ($121-122) after failing to break out above $131.88. Volume is below average and momentum is fading, so there is no clear buy or sell signal; traders should wait for a decisive move.
Key catalysts include a recovery in truck demand, margin improvement in late 2026/2027, regulatory-driven pre-buy activity, and successful launches of new electric/autonomous models. Upcoming earnings and macroeconomic data will also be important for confirming a bottom in the cycle.
Want a Personalized Answer?
Get AI-powered insights tailored to your risk tolerance and investment goals.