PCAR AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

$123.34-1.58 (-1.26%) today

Open
$123.04
High
$123.55
Low
$121.11
Volume
3.53M
Mkt Cap
$64.86B
52W High
$131.88
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
PCARPACCAR Inc
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

PACCAR (PCAR) is fundamentally solid with a strong balance sheet and leading market position, but faces near-term cyclical headwinds and margin compression. Valuation is fair relative to peers, and sentiment is cautiously optimistic, yet technicals suggest consolidation rather than a breakout. The stock is best held at current levels, with better entry opportunities likely if earnings or the truck cycle show clearer signs of recovery.

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Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

PACCAR (PCAR) maintains a fundamentally strong business with steady financial performance, despite a recent year-over-year decline in both revenues and earnings following an extraordinarily robust 2023. Margins, while compressed compared to last year, remain healthy for the industry, reflecting disciplined cost management and resilient demand. The stock's valuation appears elevated relative to earnings growth, warranting careful consideration of near-term cyclical risks.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$2.0B$4.0B$6.0B$8.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)6%8%10%12%14%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$6.82B

-13.74% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$556.90M

-36.14% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

8.16%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

-13.74%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-36.14%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-13.86%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-36.14%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

9.89%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue6.8B6.7B7.5B7.4B7.9B8.2B8.8B8.7B
Revenue Growth YoY-13.74%-19.03%-14.38%-14.90%-12.88%-5.25%-1.23%+3.20%
Net Income556.9M590.0M723.8M505.1M872.0M972.1M1.1B1.2B
Net Income Growth YoY-36.14%-39.31%-35.52%-57.74%-38.47%-20.87%-8.07%+62.87%
EPS$1.06$1.12$1.38$0.96$1.66$1.85$2.14$2.28
EPS Growth YoY-36.14%-39.46%-35.51%-57.89%-38.52%-20.94%-8.15%+62.86%

Profitability Metrics

No profitability metrics available

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Technical indicator data for PCAR is currently unavailable; however, price action near the 52-week high and recent volume trends suggest consolidation after a strong uptrend. Key support and resistance levels need to be identified through additional data sources to clarify the current trading setup.

RSI
Hold
Neutral48

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+18.2% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend24

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$123.34
50 SMA
$121.44
150 SMA
$107.39
200 SMA
$104.39
52W High
$131.88
52W Low
$84.65

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
48Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

PACCAR (PCAR) maintains a fundamentally strong business with steady financial performance, despite a recent year-over-year decline in both revenues and earnings following an extraordinarily robust 2023. Margins, while compressed compared to last year, remain healthy for the industry, reflecting disciplined cost management and resilient demand. The stock's valuation appears elevated relative to earnings growth, warranting careful consideration of near-term cyclical risks.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Met

Actual

$1.06

Estimated

$1.06

Surprise

$0.00

Surprise %

0.00%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$6.82B

Estimated

$6.05B

Surprise

+$766.16M

Surprise %

+12.65%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$1.06$1.12$1.37$1.46$1.66$1.85$2.13$2.27
EPS (Estimated)$1.06$1.15$1.29$1.58$1.70$1.82$2.14$2.20
EPS Surprise+$0.00-$0.03+$0.08-$0.12-$0.04+$0.03-$0.01+$0.07
% Diff+0.0%-2.6%+6.2%-7.6%-2.4%+1.6%-0.5%+3.2%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$6.82B$6.67B$7.51B$7.44B$7.91B$8.24B$8.77B$8.74B
Revenue (Estimated)$6.05B$6.01B$6.99B$7.2B$7.59B$7.66B$8.27B$8.25B
Revenue Surprise+$766.16M+$664.07M+$519.65M+$245.79M+$317.55M+$580.49M+$502.5M+$491.54M
% Diff+12.7%+11.1%+7.4%+3.4%+4.2%+7.6%+6.1%+6.0%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

PCAR currently trades at a valuation that is in line with or slightly cheaper than its machinery industry peers, supported by solid fundamentals despite recent growth headwinds. The stock shows reasonable multiples relative to both the sector and its historical averages, with some margin of safety indicated by DCF-based fair value estimates notably above current price levels. However, slower revenue and earnings growth trends present caution in the near term.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

27.31

TTM

Price to Sales

2.28

TTM

Price to Book

3.37

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

14.23

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.96

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings25.8621.9117.2725.3415.6713.3311.9113.51
Price to Sales8.457.756.666.886.916.296.107.39
Price to Book2.992.672.642.843.122.783.023.83
Enterprise Value to EBITDA52.0372.7757.7456.2751.6544.8239.4343.72
Enterprise Value to Revenue7.099.188.048.248.037.347.078.29

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Paccar (PCAR) exhibits a mixed but cautiously optimistic market sentiment, supported by a generally stable financial outlook and positive analyst engagement, with the majority rating it as Hold and some upgrades to Buy or Outperform. While insider selling persists, institutional ownership remains strong, and social media sentiment reflects moderate enthusiasm over improving freight conditions and expected margin recovery. Recent earnings aligned with expectations but indicated revenue softness; however, forward-looking catalyst projections for 2026 underpin a cautiously positive mood despite some short-term volatility.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.4 / 5.0
Based on 21 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
14
Buy
6
Strong Buy
1

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

PACCAR maintains a solid financial position with strong liquidity and moderate leverage. While market demand and regulatory transitions introduce cyclical and operational risks, the company benefits from diversified revenue streams and a competitive manufacturing footprint. Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, reflecting balanced upside potential against industry headwinds.

Liquidity & Solvency

Frequently Asked Questions about PCAR

AI Answers: Common Questions About PCAR

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about PACCAR Inc

PCAR is not a strong buy at current levels ($121.91, P/E 27.03) as valuation is fair and the company is in a cyclical earnings trough. While the balance sheet is robust and long-term prospects are positive, near-term growth is negative and technicals show consolidation, suggesting better entry points may emerge.

There is no urgent reason to sell unless your thesis was predicated on near-term growth or a technical breakout, both of which are lacking. Fundamentals remain solid and downside is limited by strong liquidity, but upside is also capped; holding is prudent unless your risk tolerance or time horizon has changed.

The biggest risks are further cyclical downturns in truck demand (2025 revenue -15.5% YoY, EPS -42.9%), regulatory and technology transition costs, and supply chain disruptions. While liquidity is strong (current ratio 1.7, no reported debt), earnings volatility and margin pressure could persist if the macro environment weakens.

Key resistance is at $131.88 (52-week high), with support around $121-122. Analyst targets cluster in the $125-136 range, reflecting cautious optimism for recovery but no near-term breakout; upside is limited unless a new catalyst emerges.

PCAR is fairly valued with a P/E of 27.03 and EV/EBITDA above some peers, justified by its market position and cash flow but capped by negative growth. DCF estimates suggest some margin of safety, but no deep discount; valuation does not present a compelling bargain.

Fundamentally, PCAR remains strong with healthy margins (gross 16.2%, net 8.4%), robust cash generation, and a zero-debt balance sheet. However, 2025 saw significant revenue and earnings declines, so near-term growth is weak even as the long-term outlook is positive.

Technically, the stock is consolidating near support ($121-122) after failing to break out above $131.88. Volume is below average and momentum is fading, so there is no clear buy or sell signal; traders should wait for a decisive move.

Key catalysts include a recovery in truck demand, margin improvement in late 2026/2027, regulatory-driven pre-buy activity, and successful launches of new electric/autonomous models. Upcoming earnings and macroeconomic data will also be important for confirming a bottom in the cycle.

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