PEP AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)

$160.70-3.22 (-1.96%) today

Open
$162.16
High
$163.39
Low
$160.16
Volume
6.40M
Mkt Cap
$219.73B
52W High
$171.48
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
PEPPepsiCo, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

PepsiCo (PEP) is a fundamentally strong, defensive stock with stable cash flows, robust brand equity, and consistent dividend growth, but faces valuation headwinds and moderate financial risk due to high leverage. Technicals are bullish in the short term, but the stock is fairly valued with limited near-term upside, making it best suited for income-oriented or conservative investors. While downside is protected by defensive characteristics, upside is capped by mature industry growth and recent earnings contraction.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
BUY
Short
HOLD
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

PepsiCo demonstrates strong and consistent fundamentals, underpinned by steady revenue growth, solid profitability, and reliable earnings execution. The company maintains durable margins and robust return metrics, supporting its position as a global leader in the consumer defensive sector.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$7.5B$15.0B$22.5B$30.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)4%6%8%10%12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$29.34B

5.61% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$2.54B

66.78% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

8.66%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

5.61%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

66.78%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

5.77%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

66.67%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

13.24%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue29.3B23.9B22.7B17.9B27.8B23.3B22.5B18.3B
Revenue Growth YoY+5.61%+2.65%+1.00%-1.81%-0.24%-0.57%+0.80%+2.26%
Net Income2.5B2.6B1.3B1.8B1.5B2.9B3.1B2.0B
Net Income Growth YoY+66.78%-11.16%-59.03%-10.19%+16.97%-5.24%+12.19%+5.69%
EPS$1.85$1.90$0.92$1.34$1.11$2.13$2.24$1.49
EPS Growth YoY+66.67%-10.80%-58.93%-10.07%+16.84%-5.33%+12.56%+6.43%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

54.15%

TTM

Operating Margin

12.24%

TTM

Net Margin

8.77%

TTM

Return on Equity

43.03%

TTM

Return on Assets

9.44%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin53.23%53.57%54.66%55.77%52.56%55.42%55.92%54.81%
Operating Margin12.12%14.91%7.87%14.41%8.10%16.60%17.99%14.89%
Net Margin8.66%10.87%5.56%10.23%5.48%12.56%13.70%11.19%
Return on Equity (ROE)12.45%13.43%6.86%9.97%8.44%15.06%15.85%10.72%
Return on Assets (ROA)2.91%3.57%1.78%2.70%2.27%4.31%4.60%3.02%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

PEP is currently in a strong bullish uptrend characterized by a golden cross and price well above key moving averages. Momentum remains healthy with ADX confirming trend strength, while RSI sits neutral, indicating room for further upside without being overextended. The stock is in the advancing phase typically favorable for accumulation by institutions.

RSI
Hold
Neutral47

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+10.7% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend28

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$160.70
50 SMA
$154.30
150 SMA
$148.81
200 SMA
$145.17
52W High
$171.48
52W Low
$127.60

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
47Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

PepsiCo demonstrates strong and consistent fundamentals, underpinned by steady revenue growth, solid profitability, and reliable earnings execution. The company maintains durable margins and robust return metrics, supporting its position as a global leader in the consumer defensive sector.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 27, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$2.26

Estimated

$2.24

Surprise

+$0.02

Surprise %

+0.89%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$29.34B

Estimated

$28.98B

Surprise

+$365.62M

Surprise %

+1.26%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$2.26$2.29$2.12$1.48$1.96$2.31$2.28$1.61
EPS (Estimated)$2.24$2.26$2.03$1.49$1.95$2.29$2.16$1.52
EPS Surprise+$0.02+$0.03+$0.09-$0.01+$0.01+$0.02+$0.12+$0.09
% Diff+0.9%+1.3%+4.4%-0.7%+0.5%+0.9%+5.6%+5.9%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$29.34B$23.94B$22.73B$17.92B$27.78B$23.32B$22.5B$18.25B
Revenue (Estimated)$28.98B$23.84B$22.27B$17.76B$27.89B$23.86B$22.59B$18.08B
Revenue Surprise+$365.62M+$99.27M+$454.68M+$160.99M-$105.79M-$541.29M-$91.19M+$170.11M
% Diff+1.3%+0.4%+2.0%+0.9%-0.4%-2.3%-0.4%+0.9%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

PepsiCo presents a solid valuation profile with stable fundamentals, supported by consistent revenue and earnings growth, although recent multiples appear somewhat elevated compared to sector peers. The company's profitability and cash flow generation remain strong, backed by its diversified product portfolio and innovation efforts. Analysts generally adopt a hold stance, reflecting a cautious optimism given moderate upside potential and macroeconomic considerations.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

26.74

TTM

Price to Sales

2.34

TTM

Price to Book

10.80

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

18.10

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

2.77

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings19.4019.2535.5927.2034.2720.7818.2628.96
Price to Sales6.728.377.9111.147.5110.4410.0112.96
Price to Book9.6610.349.7610.8511.5712.5211.5812.42
Enterprise Value to EBITDA66.8752.9479.6169.8173.6058.4452.8477.43
Enterprise Value to Revenue8.1110.169.8413.388.8312.0611.7215.03

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

PepsiCo's market sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a majority of analysts maintaining a Hold rating, tempered by a notable minority favoring Buy. Recent news highlights steady organic revenue growth, productivity initiatives, and continued dividend increases, while social media engagement and marketing efforts support brand momentum. Overall, the market sentiment reflects balanced views about near-term challenges and longer-term value creation potential.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.3 / 5.0
Based on 22 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
15
Buy
4
Strong Buy
2

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

PepsiCo maintains a resilient market position supported by stable organic revenue growth and strong brand presence, though it faces challenges such as elevated leverage, margin pressures, and shifting consumer preferences toward healthier products. Liquidity metrics indicate potential short-term strain in covering obligations without relying on inventory, while its high debt levels suggest significant reliance on leverage. Overall risk is tempered by solid cash flow generation and management initiatives for cost efficiency and productivity improvements.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.85

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.67

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

2.45

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.46

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.850.910.780.830.820.890.830.86
Quick Ratio0.670.720.600.650.650.700.640.68
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity2.452.622.792.642.492.312.312.41
Debt-to-Assets0.460.480.490.480.450.450.450.46

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.85(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.67(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 2.45(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.46(Moderate)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about PEP

AI Answers: Common Questions About PEP

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about PepsiCo, Inc.

PEP is not a clear bargain at current levels (P/E 27.44, price $164.91), but offers a stable dividend and defensive profile. Technicals support a short-term buy for momentum traders, but for long-term investors, the stock is fairly valued with limited upside. Consider buying on pullbacks near support ($153-$155) for better risk/reward.

Unless your thesis has changed or you need to reduce exposure to leverage risk, there is no urgent reason to sell—fundamentals remain solid, and technicals are bullish in the short term. However, if you seek high growth or are concerned about valuation and leverage, trimming may be prudent.

Key risks include high leverage (debt-to-equity above 2.4), weak short-term liquidity (current ratio <1, quick ratio <0.7), and margin pressures from inflation. Regulatory changes and consumer shifts toward healthier products could also impact growth and profitability.

Short-term technical target is the 52-week high at $171.48, with potential extension to $175-$177 if a breakout occurs. Support levels are at $153.75 (50 SMA) and $144.87 (200 SMA). Analyst targets are generally in the $170-$175 range, reflecting modest upside.

PEP is fairly valued with a P/E of 27.44 and elevated EV/EBITDA, both above sector and historical averages. The premium reflects its defensive qualities and brand strength, but limits near-term re-rating potential unless growth accelerates.

Fundamentally, PEP is strong: revenue grew 2.2% YoY to $93.93B, gross margin is robust at 54.1%, and net margin is 8.8%. However, EPS declined 13.5% YoY due to cost pressures, and leverage is higher than peers, warranting some caution.

Technical analysis is bullish: price is above all key moving averages, a golden cross is confirmed, ADX is strong (>31), and RSI is neutral (55), indicating room for further upside. Resistance is at $171.48; support at $153.75 and $144.87.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (potential for EPS rebound), new product launches (especially in health and premium segments), and macro events affecting input costs. A breakout above $171.48 or easing cost pressures could drive upside.

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