PM AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)

$160.45-0.80 (-0.50%) today

Open
$160.72
High
$161.82
Low
$158.18
Volume
4.33M
Mkt Cap
$249.77B
52W High
$191.30
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
PMPhilip Morris International Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Philip Morris International (PM) offers robust fundamentals and long-term growth in smoke-free products, but current technical weakness, regulatory headwinds, and a full valuation limit near-term upside. The stock is best suited for income-focused investors seeking stability, while traders should be cautious given the bearish technical setup and mixed sentiment.

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Medium
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Long
Agent Signals
41
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Philip Morris International (PM) exhibits solid financial health, consistent revenue growth, and resilient profitability, driven by its strong global tobacco franchise and growing reduced-risk product portfolio. While cash flows and margins remain robust, the stock faces valuation challenges and macro/regulatory headwinds. Technicals show a stabilization after prior volatility, with sentiment mixed amid steady fundamentals but persistent ESG and sector risks.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025-$4.0B$0$4.0B$8.0B$12.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)-11%0%11%22%33%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$10.36B

6.76% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$2.14B

469.78% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

20.66%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

6.76%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

469.78%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

6.55%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

470.27%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

18.82%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue10.4B10.8B10.1B9.3B9.7B9.9B9.5B8.8B
Revenue Growth YoY+6.76%+9.42%+7.10%+5.78%+7.28%+8.42%+5.59%+9.65%
Net Income2.1B3.5B3.0B2.7B-579.0M3.1B2.4B2.1B
Net Income Growth YoY+469.78%+12.85%+26.31%+25.23%-126.37%+50.05%+53.44%+7.67%
EPS$1.37$2.23$1.95$1.72-$0.37$1.98$1.54$1.38
EPS Growth YoY+470.27%+12.63%+26.62%+24.64%-126.24%+50.00%+52.48%+7.81%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

65.64%

TTM

Operating Margin

32.55%

TTM

Net Margin

20.66%

TTM

Return on Equity

-103.69%

TTM

Return on Assets

27.65%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin65.64%67.85%67.66%67.32%64.73%66.04%64.67%63.66%
Operating Margin32.55%39.31%37.01%38.10%33.58%36.87%36.38%34.63%
Net Margin20.66%32.07%29.97%28.92%-5.97%31.10%25.41%24.43%
Return on Equity (ROE)-21.42%-31.87%-25.40%-24.68%4.93%-31.79%-24.69%-20.84%
Return on Assets (ROA)5.22%8.98%7.62%7.30%-1.71%8.15%6.54%5.45%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

PM is currently in a technical downtrend with price trading below key moving averages, indicating bearish pressure despite a golden cross setup. RSI is neutral, showing no extreme momentum, while ADX suggests a strong trend is in place, currently downward. The stock is in a Stage 3 topping phase, signaling potential distribution and increased volatility ahead.

RSI
Hold
Neutral41

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-3.1% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend36

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Hold
Golden Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$160.45
50 SMA
$174.07
150 SMA
$163.85
200 SMA
$165.61
52W High
$191.30
52W Low
$142.11

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
41Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Philip Morris International (PM) exhibits solid financial health, consistent revenue growth, and resilient profitability, driven by its strong global tobacco franchise and growing reduced-risk product portfolio. While cash flows and margins remain robust, the stock faces valuation challenges and macro/regulatory headwinds. Technicals show a stabilization after prior volatility, with sentiment mixed amid steady fundamentals but persistent ESG and sector risks.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Met

Actual

$1.70

Estimated

$1.70

Surprise

$0.00

Surprise %

0.00%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$10.36B

Estimated

$10.4B

Surprise

-$40.75M

Surprise %

-0.39%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$1.70$2.24$1.91$1.69$1.55$1.91$1.59$1.50
EPS (Estimated)$1.70$2.09$1.86$1.61$1.49$1.82$1.57$1.41
EPS Surprise+$0.00+$0.15+$0.05+$0.08+$0.06+$0.09+$0.02+$0.09
% Diff+0.0%+7.2%+2.7%+5.0%+4.0%+4.9%+1.3%+6.4%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$10.36B$10.85B$10.14B$9.3B$9.71B$9.91B$9.41B$8.79B
Revenue (Estimated)$10.4B$10.64B$10.32B$9.14B$9.44B$9.68B$9.19B$8.44B
Revenue Surprise-$40.75M+$209.33M-$177.57M+$156.22M+$269.72M+$234.85M+$221.17M+$349.7M
% Diff-0.4%+2.0%-1.7%+1.7%+2.9%+2.4%+2.4%+4.1%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Philip Morris International's valuation is marked by premium multiples relative to traditional tobacco peers, reflecting investors' confidence in its evolving smoke-free product portfolio and steady profitability. Though short-term regulatory headwinds introduce uncertainty, strong earnings growth and solid cash flow underpin a generally positive outlook with potential upside in price targets.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

22.01

TTM

Price to Sales

6.14

TTM

Price to Book

-25.00

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

16.82

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

7.23

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings29.1618.1523.3322.92-80.7515.3116.3616.53
Price to Sales24.1023.2927.9726.5219.2719.0516.6316.15
Price to Book-24.99-23.14-23.70-22.63-15.92-19.47-16.16-13.77
Enterprise Value to EBITDA65.1862.8178.9672.7352.6556.5052.0555.43
Enterprise Value to Revenue28.3427.5332.6331.3723.5423.5821.3021.41

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

The overall market sentiment on Philip Morris International (PM) is cautiously optimistic with a moderate buy consensus among analysts, despite notable regulatory and insider selling concerns. Positive expectations stem from its smoke-free product transition and steady earnings growth guidance, though recent regulatory delays and increased taxation pressures have introduced mixed investor sentiment.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 17 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
4
Buy
8
Strong Buy
5

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Philip Morris International displays a financial profile with moderate liquidity constraints and significant leverage, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of its transformation towards smoke-free products. Regulatory uncertainties, market competition, and excise tax hikes in key regions pose prominent risks, while robust cash flow and strategic growth in smoke-free segments underpin potential long-term stability. The stock's risk is generally in line with or slightly elevated compared to its tobacco sector peers due to execution and regulatory challenges.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.96

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.51

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

-4.89

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.71

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.960.850.830.790.880.890.940.94
Quick Ratio0.510.460.450.430.470.490.520.49
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity-4.89-4.59-4.30-4.55-3.89-5.08-5.04-4.89
Debt-to-Assets0.710.750.750.760.740.740.750.77

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.96(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.51(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: -4.89(Low)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.71(High)

The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.

Frequently Asked Questions about PM

AI Answers: Common Questions About PM

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Philip Morris International Inc.

PM is not a compelling buy right now given its P/E of 22.1 (above sector average), price below key moving averages, and ongoing regulatory headwinds. While long-term fundamentals are strong and the dividend is attractive, technical weakness and a full valuation suggest waiting for a better entry or technical reversal.

There is no urgent reason to sell unless you have a short-term focus, as fundamentals remain solid and the long-term thesis is intact. However, if you are concerned about technical downside (support at $150 and $142.11) or regulatory setbacks, trimming exposure may be prudent.

The biggest risks are regulatory delays (especially FDA approval for smoke-free products), high leverage (debt-to-assets over 70%, negative equity), and excise tax increases in key markets like Japan. Liquidity ratios below 1.0 also indicate some short-term financial risk, though strong cash flow mitigates this.

Analyst consensus targets are around $196, but technical resistance is at $165 and $174, with support at $150 and $142.11. Near-term downside risk exists if $150 breaks, while upside is capped unless technicals improve or a major catalyst emerges.

PM is fairly valued at current levels, trading at a premium P/E of 22.1 and elevated EV/EBITDA, justified by its smoke-free growth but leaving little margin for error. The price-to-sales multiple is also above industry average, reflecting strong brand and recurring revenue but limiting near-term upside.

Fundamentally, PM is strong: FY25 revenue grew 7.3%, EPS rebounded 60.7%, gross margins are above 65%, and over 40% of revenue now comes from reduced-risk products. However, high leverage and liquidity ratios below 1.0 warrant monitoring.

Technically, PM is in a downtrend with price below the 50, 150, and 200 SMAs, RSI at 40.6 (neutral), and no bullish reversal patterns. Key support is at $150 and $142.11; a break below these could trigger further downside.

Key catalysts include regulatory approvals for new smoke-free products (e.g., ZYN, IQOS), upcoming earnings reports, and any positive resolution of tax or regulatory challenges in major markets. Watch for volume spikes and technical reversals as signals of renewed momentum.

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