QCOM AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)
Qualcomm (QCOM) offers strong long-term fundamentals and is fairly valued relative to peers, but faces pronounced short-term technical weakness and mixed sentiment due to cyclical and macro headwinds. While the company is well positioned for future growth in automotive, IoT, and next-gen wireless, near-term downside risk remains elevated. Investors should monitor for stabilization or reversal signals before adding exposure.
Fundamentals
QUALCOMM (QCOM) maintains a robust financial position with consistent top-line expansion and improved operating performance, reflecting its leading role in global semiconductors for wireless technologies. Results show strong execution with several consecutive quarterly beats on both EPS and revenue, underpinned by resilient end markets in mobile, automotive, and IoT. Margins have remained healthy, reinforcing the company's efficient cost structure and strong pricing power.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
5.00% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-5.53% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.3B | 11.3B | 10.4B | 11.0B | 11.7B | 10.2B | 9.4B | 9.4B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +5.00% | +10.03% | +10.35% | +16.93% | +17.45% | +18.69% | +11.15% | +1.23% |
| Net Income | 3.0B | -3.1B | 2.7B | 2.8B | 3.2B | 2.9B | 2.1B | 2.3B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -5.53% | -206.75% | +25.22% | +20.89% | +14.93% | +95.97% | +18.08% | +36.50% |
| EPS | $2.81 | -$2.84 | $2.44 | $2.55 | $2.86 | $2.62 | $1.91 | $2.08 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -1.75% | -208.40% | +27.75% | +22.60% | +15.32% | +96.99% | +17.90% | +35.95% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 54.55% | 55.34% | 55.56% | 55.03% | 55.77% | 56.39% | 55.56% | 56.27% |
| Operating Margin | 27.47% | 25.89% | 26.65% | 28.42% | 30.47% | 25.20% | 23.65% | 24.92% |
| Net Margin | 24.52% | -27.66% | 25.72% | 25.61% | 27.25% | 28.50% | 22.67% | 24.77% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 13.02% | -14.70% | 9.80% | 10.14% | 11.83% | 11.11% | 8.63% | 9.51% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 8.07% | -8.28% | 6.30% | 6.50% | 7.32% | 6.77% | 5.23% | 5.66% |
Technical Analysis
QCOM is currently in a strong downtrend with the price trading below key moving averages and a pronounced death cross. Momentum is bearish but supported by a strong ADX trend reading, indicating the downtrend's strength is significant. RSI remains neutral with no oversold bounce signaling immediate reversal yet.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Strong trend active
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
QUALCOMM (QCOM) maintains a robust financial position with consistent top-line expansion and improved operating performance, reflecting its leading role in global semiconductors for wireless technologies. Results show strong execution with several consecutive quarterly beats on both EPS and revenue, underpinned by resilient end markets in mobile, automotive, and IoT. Margins have remained healthy, reinforcing the company's efficient cost structure and strong pricing power.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 28, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$3.50
Estimated
$3.39
Surprise
+$0.11
Surprise %
+3.24%
Revenue
Actual
$12.25B
Estimated
$12.12B
Surprise
+$131.39M
Surprise %
+1.08%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $3.50 | $3.00 | $2.77 | $2.85 | $3.41 | $2.69 | $2.33 | $2.44 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $3.39 | $2.87 | $2.71 | $2.82 | $2.96 | $2.56 | $2.25 | $2.32 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.11 | +$0.13 | +$0.06 | +$0.03 | +$0.45 | +$0.13 | +$0.08 | +$0.12 |
| % Diff | +3.2% | +4.5% | +2.2% | +1.1% | +15.2% | +5.1% | +3.6% | +5.2% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $12.25B | $11.27B | $10.37B | $10.98B | $11.67B | $10.24B | $9.39B | $9.39B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $12.12B | $10.77B | $10.33B | $10.64B | $10.91B | $9.9B | $9.21B | $9.35B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$131.39M | +$500.86M | +$33.65M | +$334.7M | +$758.18M | +$339.28M | +$178.63M | +$35.72M |
| % Diff | +1.1% | +4.7% | +0.3% | +3.1% | +6.9% | +3.4% | +1.9% | +0.4% |
Valuation
Qualcomm currently trades at a valuation notably lower than key semiconductor peers and the sector average, reflecting cautious market sentiment despite its strong fundamentals and steady profitability. While revenue growth remains moderate, earnings have faced recent pressures, yet the company's financial health and strategic positioning in emerging technologies support its valuation. Analysts present a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook, with price targets indicating potential upside in the mid to long term.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 15.44 | -14.53 | 16.31 | 15.08 | 13.49 | 16.25 | 26.32 | 20.11 |
| Price to Sales | 15.15 | 16.07 | 16.78 | 15.45 | 14.70 | 18.53 | 23.86 | 19.93 |
| Price to Book | 8.04 | 8.54 | 6.39 | 6.12 | 6.38 | 7.22 | 9.09 | 7.65 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 57.39 | 54.01 | 49.04 | 56.73 | 41.91 | 61.39 | 85.05 | 70.29 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 15.77 | 16.83 | 17.68 | 16.12 | 15.21 | 19.27 | 24.58 | 20.59 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Qualcomm (QCOM) sentiment is currently mixed with cautious near-term outlook due to weaker Q2 guidance and ongoing market headwinds. However, optimism persists around its long-term growth avenues in automotive, AI, IoT, and 6G technology developments, supported by recent analyst upgrades and dividend stability.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Qualcomm currently presents a moderate financial risk profile supported by strong liquidity and manageable leverage. However, challenges such as ongoing supply chain disruptions, margin compression, and intensifying competition in key markets contribute to elevated execution risks. These factors, combined with regulatory and geopolitical pressures, create a cautious outlook for investors focused on mid-term stability.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | 2.82 | 3.19 | 2.73 | 2.62 | 2.40 | 2.39 | 2.65 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.83 | 1.94 | 2.38 | 2.08 | 1.99 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.64 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 2.51(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 1.83(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.64(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.28(Low)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about QCOM
AI Answers: Common Questions About QCOM
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM is not an immediate buy for short-term traders due to its strong downtrend (price at $138.13, RSI 35, below all major SMAs), but long-term investors may find value at these levels given a P/E of 27.91 (below sector averages), robust margins, and a solid growth outlook. Accumulating on further weakness or after technical stabilization could be prudent.
If you are a short-term trader, consider reducing exposure or waiting for a technical reversal, as the trend is bearish and no bottom is confirmed. Long-term holders with conviction in QCOM's fundamentals and growth prospects can hold through volatility, as the core thesis remains intact and valuation is not stretched.
Key risks include cyclical handset demand volatility, margin pressure from unfavorable product mix and rising costs, and geopolitical or regulatory headwinds (notably US-China trade and litigation). Sentinel notes a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64 and current ratio above 2.5, so financial risk is moderate but manageable.
Analyst price targets range from $132 to $205, averaging around $165. Technically, downside support is near the 52-week low of $120.80, while resistance is at $156.70 (50 SMA) and $160.61 (200 SMA). A break below $120.80 could trigger further downside, while recovery above $156.70 would be a bullish signal.
QCOM is fairly valued with a P/E of 27.91 and a price-to-sales multiple reflecting its high-margin licensing model. Its valuation is discounted versus high-growth peers like NVIDIA and AMD, justified by its mature growth profile and current market caution, but not overvalued given its strong profitability and cash flow.
QCOM is fundamentally strong: FY25 revenue grew 13.6% YoY to $44.3B, gross margins are above 54%, and operating margins trend 27-31%. The balance sheet is solid with a current ratio above 2.5 and manageable leverage, supporting ongoing investment and capital returns.
Technical analysis is bearish: price is in a stage 4 downtrend, below all major moving averages, with a death cross confirmed and RSI at 35 (not yet oversold). Immediate support is at $120.80; no reversal patterns are present, so short-term downside risk remains.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (Q2 guidance is cautious), potential recovery in handset demand, new AI/data center and automotive chip launches, and progress in 6G/IoT initiatives. Macro events such as easing supply chain constraints or resolution of regulatory/legal disputes could also shift sentiment.
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