QCOM AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)
Qualcomm (QCOM) presents a fundamentally strong, fairly valued long-term opportunity with robust financials and growth in automotive and IoT, but faces near-term technical weakness and mixed sentiment due to smartphone market headwinds and competitive risks. Short-term technicals are bearish, but the long-term outlook remains constructive for patient investors. Investors should monitor for stabilization or reversal signals before adding to positions.
Fundamentals
QUALCOMM (QCOM) demonstrates underlying financial strength with consistent revenue and EPS growth, strong profitability, and regular earnings beats. Despite a recent pullback from its 52-week high, the business remains resilient in the face of industry cyclicality. Forward-looking fundamentals remain intact, though the company faces challenges typical to the semiconductor industry, such as inventory cycles and competitive dynamics.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
5.00% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-5.53% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.3B | 11.3B | 10.4B | 11.0B | 11.7B | 10.2B | 9.4B | 9.4B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +5.00% | +10.03% | +10.35% | +16.93% | +17.45% | +18.69% | +11.15% | +1.23% |
| Net Income | 3.0B | -3.1B | 2.7B | 2.8B | 3.2B | 2.9B | 2.1B | 2.3B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -5.53% | -206.75% | +25.22% | +20.89% | +14.93% | +95.97% | +18.08% | +36.50% |
| EPS | $2.81 | -$2.84 | $2.44 | $2.55 | $2.86 | $2.62 | $1.91 | $2.08 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -1.75% | -208.40% | +27.75% | +22.60% | +15.32% | +96.99% | +17.90% | +35.95% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 54.55% | 55.34% | 55.56% | 55.03% | 55.77% | 56.39% | 55.56% | 56.27% |
| Operating Margin | 27.47% | 25.89% | 26.65% | 28.42% | 30.47% | 25.20% | 23.65% | 24.92% |
| Net Margin | 24.52% | -27.66% | 25.72% | 25.61% | 27.25% | 28.50% | 22.67% | 24.77% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 13.02% | -14.70% | 9.80% | 10.14% | 11.83% | 11.11% | 8.63% | 9.51% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 8.07% | -8.28% | 6.30% | 6.50% | 7.32% | 6.77% | 5.23% | 5.66% |
Technical Analysis
Qualcomm (QCOM) is currently in a strong downtrend with price below key moving averages and a bearish death cross in place. Short-term momentum is fading with RSI in the neutral zone, while MACD signals remain broadly bearish. The stock is approaching key support near $126-$127, and resistance levels above $130 are acting as barriers to upside recovery.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Strong trend active
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
QUALCOMM (QCOM) demonstrates underlying financial strength with consistent revenue and EPS growth, strong profitability, and regular earnings beats. Despite a recent pullback from its 52-week high, the business remains resilient in the face of industry cyclicality. Forward-looking fundamentals remain intact, though the company faces challenges typical to the semiconductor industry, such as inventory cycles and competitive dynamics.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 28, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$3.50
Estimated
$3.39
Surprise
+$0.11
Surprise %
+3.24%
Revenue
Actual
$12.25B
Estimated
$12.12B
Surprise
+$131.39M
Surprise %
+1.08%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $3.50 | $3.00 | $2.77 | $2.85 | $3.41 | $2.69 | $2.33 | $2.44 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $3.39 | $2.87 | $2.71 | $2.82 | $2.96 | $2.56 | $2.25 | $2.32 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.11 | +$0.13 | +$0.06 | +$0.03 | +$0.45 | +$0.13 | +$0.08 | +$0.12 |
| % Diff | +3.2% | +4.5% | +2.2% | +1.1% | +15.2% | +5.1% | +3.6% | +5.2% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $12.25B | $11.27B | $10.37B | $10.98B | $11.67B | $10.24B | $9.39B | $9.39B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $12.12B | $10.77B | $10.33B | $10.64B | $10.91B | $9.9B | $9.21B | $9.35B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$131.39M | +$500.86M | +$33.65M | +$334.7M | +$758.18M | +$339.28M | +$178.63M | +$35.72M |
| % Diff | +1.1% | +4.7% | +0.3% | +3.1% | +6.9% | +3.4% | +1.9% | +0.4% |
Valuation
Qualcomm currently trades at a valuation that suggests a reasonable entry point relative to its historical and peer benchmarks, supported by strong financial health and solid free cash flow generation. While revenue growth has slowed somewhat compared to higher-growth peers, the company maintains robust profitability and operational margins amid a mixed analyst sentiment leaning towards hold or buy. The stock price targets indicate a potential upside of about 25-30%, underpinning a moderately positive valuation outlook.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 15.44 | -14.53 | 16.31 | 15.08 | 13.49 | 16.25 | 26.32 | 20.11 |
| Price to Sales | 15.15 | 16.07 | 16.78 | 15.45 | 14.70 | 18.53 | 23.86 | 19.93 |
| Price to Book | 8.04 | 8.54 | 6.39 | 6.12 | 6.38 | 7.22 | 9.09 | 7.65 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 57.39 | 54.01 | 49.04 | 56.73 | 41.91 | 61.39 | 85.05 | 70.29 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 15.77 | 16.83 | 17.68 | 16.12 | 15.21 | 19.27 | 24.58 | 20.59 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Qualcomm's market sentiment is currently mixed, with a predominant "Hold" consensus from analysts tempered by both positive financial results and apprehension about market challenges. Key positives include recent earnings beats, strategic partnerships, and strong automotive revenue growth, while concerns revolve around smartphone market softness and memory cost pressures. Retail investor sentiment remains cautious, reflecting uncertainty despite the company's substantial share buyback program and dividend increases.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Qualcomm (QCOM) demonstrates a solid financial position with strong liquidity and manageable debt levels, supporting short- and long-term obligations comfortably. However, the company faces significant near-term risks from supply chain constraints, increased competition, and customer concentration, particularly in China and with Apple. Market sentiment is mixed, reflecting cautious optimism with upside potential tempered by margin pressure and geopolitical uncertainties.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | 2.82 | 3.19 | 2.73 | 2.62 | 2.40 | 2.39 | 2.65 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.83 | 1.94 | 2.38 | 2.08 | 1.99 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.64 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 2.51(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 1.83(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.64(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.28(Low)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about QCOM
AI Answers: Common Questions About QCOM
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM is fairly valued at a P/E of 25.8 and trades near $128, well below its 52-week high of $205.95, with analyst targets around $163.77 (23% upside). However, with the stock in a technical downtrend and sentiment mixed, it is best suited for long-term investors willing to ride out near-term volatility. Short-term buyers should wait for technical stabilization or a confirmed reversal near $125-$127 support.
Unless your thesis has changed or you need to manage risk, selling now is not warranted; fundamentals remain strong, and valuation is reasonable. However, if you are a short-term trader or risk-averse, the current technical downtrend and deteriorating sentiment may justify reducing exposure or waiting for a reversal before adding.
The biggest risks are supply chain disruptions (especially memory shortages), customer concentration (notably Apple), and regulatory/geopolitical challenges in China. Debt levels are manageable (debt/equity ~0.64, interest coverage ~20x), but margin compression and competitive threats from companies like MediaTek and Apple silicon could pressure earnings.
Analyst price targets average $163.77, suggesting ~23% upside from current levels. Technically, resistance is at $130 and $136, with key support at $126-$127 and downside targets near $124.00. No clear reversal pattern is present, so price may consolidate near support before any sustained move higher.
QCOM is fairly valued: its P/E (25.8) and EV/EBITDA are below sector averages, reflecting moderate growth expectations but strong profitability and free cash flow. The price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios are also reasonable for a mature, high-margin tech company with diversified revenue streams.
QCOM is fundamentally strong, with gross margins above 54%, operating margin near 28%, and ROE stabilizing in the 30-35% range. Revenue grew 13.6% YoY in FY25, and the company has a robust balance sheet with a current ratio above 2.5 and consistent earnings beats.
Technically, QCOM is in a strong downtrend below both the 50-day ($136.30) and 200-day ($157.72) SMAs, with a death cross and RSI at 41.75. Support is at $126-$127, with no reversal patterns; momentum remains bearish and volume is weak, so caution is warranted for new entries.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, new product launches in automotive and IoT, and potential positive surprises in 5G/6G adoption. Watch for supply chain improvements, major partnership announcements, and regulatory developments in China and with key customers.
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