ROST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)
Ross Stores (ROST) is fundamentally strong with robust growth, high margins, and operational resilience, but its current valuation is elevated and limits near-term upside. Technicals are bullish and sentiment is positive, yet risk of valuation contraction and macro headwinds temper aggressive buying. The stock is best suited for patient investors or those seeking stable, defensive retail exposure.
Fundamentals
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) is a leading off-price retailer with a history of strong execution and resilience across retail cycles. While current fundamentals and recent stock performance highlight robust growth and profitability, the present valuation appears elevated, warranting cautious optimism. Investors should consider both the company's operational strengths and the risks embedded at current price levels.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
12.23% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
10.07% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.6B | 5.6B | 5.5B | 5.0B | 5.9B | 5.1B | 5.3B | 4.9B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +12.23% | +10.44% | +4.57% | +2.61% | -1.83% | +2.97% | +7.15% | +8.08% |
| Net Income | 645.9M | 511.9M | 508.0M | 479.2M | 586.8M | 488.8M | 527.1M | 488.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +10.07% | +4.73% | -3.63% | -1.79% | -3.76% | +9.27% | +18.11% | +31.47% |
| EPS | $2.02 | $1.59 | $1.57 | $1.48 | $1.80 | $1.48 | $1.60 | $1.47 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +12.22% | +7.43% | -1.88% | +0.68% | -1.64% | +10.45% | +20.30% | +33.64% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 28.02% | 28.00% | 27.62% | 28.16% | 26.53% | 28.34% | 28.29% | 28.15% |
| Operating Margin | 12.27% | 11.58% | 11.54% | 12.17% | 12.36% | 11.91% | 12.47% | 12.17% |
| Net Margin | 9.73% | 9.14% | 9.19% | 9.61% | 9.92% | 9.64% | 9.97% | 10.04% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 10.44% | 8.70% | 8.86% | 8.59% | 10.65% | 9.29% | 10.27% | 9.86% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 4.15% | 3.32% | 3.50% | 3.35% | 3.94% | 3.28% | 3.59% | 3.37% |
Technical Analysis
ROST is currently in a strong uptrend with price well above key moving averages and a golden cross in place, indicating sustained bullish momentum. RSI is neutral, suggesting no immediate overbought or oversold conditions, while the ADX points to a period of mild trend strength or consolidation within this overarching bullish environment. The stock is near its 52-week high, consolidating gains with incremental strength building in the advancing phase.
No extreme reading
Mixed signals
Range-bound market
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) is a leading off-price retailer with a history of strong execution and resilience across retail cycles. While current fundamentals and recent stock performance highlight robust growth and profitability, the present valuation appears elevated, warranting cautious optimism. Investors should consider both the company's operational strengths and the risks embedded at current price levels.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$2.00
Estimated
$1.90
Surprise
+$0.10
Surprise %
+5.26%
Revenue
Actual
$6.64B
Estimated
$6.41B
Surprise
+$220.52M
Surprise %
+3.44%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $2.00 | $1.58 | $1.56 | $1.47 | $1.79 | $1.48 | $1.59 | $1.46 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $1.90 | $1.42 | $1.53 | $1.44 | $1.66 | $1.41 | $1.50 | $1.35 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.10 | +$0.16 | +$0.03 | +$0.03 | +$0.13 | +$0.07 | +$0.09 | +$0.11 |
| % Diff | +5.3% | +11.3% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +7.8% | +5.0% | +6.0% | +8.1% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $6.64B | $5.6B | $5.53B | $4.98B | $5.91B | $5.07B | $5.29B | $4.86B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $6.41B | $5.42B | $5.54B | $4.96B | $5.94B | $5.15B | $5.25B | $4.83B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$220.52M | +$182.01M | -$14.52M | +$24.73M | -$31.19M | -$77.11M | +$39.7M | +$25.57M |
| % Diff | +3.4% | +3.4% | -0.3% | +0.5% | -0.5% | -1.5% | +0.8% | +0.5% |
Valuation
Ross Stores (ROST) currently trades at a premium valuation relative to its sector and historical norms, supported by solid financial health and steady earnings growth. While the stock’s valuation multiples suggest premium pricing, market consensus reflects mixed price targets with moderate upside potential, influenced by consistent revenue and profitability metrics.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 23.35 | 25.07 | 21.84 | 23.81 | 20.91 | 23.63 | 21.91 | 22.20 |
| Price to Sales | 9.09 | 9.17 | 8.03 | 9.16 | 8.30 | 9.11 | 8.74 | 8.92 |
| Price to Book | 9.75 | 8.73 | 7.74 | 8.19 | 8.91 | 8.78 | 9.00 | 8.76 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 64.20 | 53.68 | 51.33 | 60.93 | 55.49 | 61.50 | 57.23 | 58.31 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 9.18 | 9.37 | 8.25 | 9.40 | 8.46 | 9.39 | 8.96 | 9.16 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Ross Stores (ROST) is currently viewed with moderately positive sentiment driven by strong recent financial results and strategic positioning in the off-price retail sector. Analyst consensus leans towards a "Moderate Buy" with price targets slightly mixed but generally supportive, while retail investors reflect optimism fueled by robust earnings and revenue growth. Despite some valuation concerns, the stock benefits from favorable industry trends and growing institutional interest.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Ross Stores (ROST) presents a moderate financial risk profile with a stable liquidity position and manageable leverage, supported by consistent sales growth and operational resilience. The company faces sector-specific risks such as tariff volatility, rising labor costs, and competitive pressures but benefits from a strong off-price retail niche and regional market strength. While the valuation is modestly elevated, the firm's fundamentals and prudent capital management underpin a balanced risk perspective for investors.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.58 | 1.52 | 1.58 | 1.55 | 1.62 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.54 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.04 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 1.09 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 1.18 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.58(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 1.04(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.84(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.34(Moderate)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about ROST
AI Answers: Common Questions About ROST
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ross Stores, Inc.
ROST is a fundamentally strong company, but with a P/E of 34.16 and EV/EBITDA well above sector averages, the stock is currently overvalued. Technicals support a tactical buy on a breakout above $231, but for long-term investors, waiting for a pullback or improved valuation is prudent.
There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own ROST, as fundamentals remain robust and technicals are bullish. However, if you are concerned about valuation risk or need to rebalance, trimming at current levels is reasonable given limited near-term upside.
The biggest risks are valuation contraction if growth slows, with a current P/E of 34.16 and debt-to-equity of 0.84. Rising labor costs, tariffs, and potential regional economic slowdowns (especially in key markets like California and the Sunbelt) could pressure margins and sales.
Near-term technical resistance is at $231.16, with support at $218 and $179. Analyst price targets cluster near current prices, suggesting limited upside unless a breakout occurs. A decisive move above $231 could open the path to new highs, but failure to break out may lead to a pullback toward support.
ROST is overvalued relative to both its sector and its own historical averages, with a P/E of 34.16 and high EV/EBITDA multiples. The premium is justified by strong fundamentals, but leaves little margin for error if growth slows.
ROST is fundamentally strong, with double-digit revenue and EPS growth, high and stable margins, a current ratio of 1.58, and disciplined capital allocation. Its business model is resilient, and return metrics (ROE high-teens to low-20%) are sector-leading.
Technicals are bullish: price is above all major moving averages, a golden cross is in place, and RSI is neutral at 54.7. The stock is consolidating near its 52-week high ($231.16); a breakout could trigger further upside, while support at $218 offers a favorable entry zone.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (which have recently beaten expectations), potential upward guidance revisions, and a technical breakout above $231.16. Watch for macroeconomic data on consumer spending and any changes in labor or tariff costs.
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