ROST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)
Ross Stores (ROST) is fundamentally strong, with robust earnings growth, resilient margins, and a defensive retail model, though it trades at a premium valuation. Technicals are bullish but show near-term resistance, while sentiment and risk profiles are favorable. The stock is best suited for medium- to long-term investors seeking quality growth in the consumer cyclical sector, with moderate short-term caution due to valuation and resistance levels.
Fundamentals
Ross Stores (ROST) continues to demonstrate solid fundamental health, characterized by steady revenue growth, expanding earnings, and consistently strong profitability metrics. The company has regularly outperformed earnings expectations, operates with healthy margins, and benefits from a resilient off-price retail model.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
12.23% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
10.07% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.6B | 5.6B | 5.5B | 5.0B | 5.9B | 5.1B | 5.3B | 4.9B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +12.23% | +10.44% | +4.57% | +2.61% | -1.83% | +2.97% | +7.15% | +8.08% |
| Net Income | 645.9M | 511.9M | 508.0M | 479.2M | 586.8M | 488.8M | 527.1M | 488.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +10.07% | +4.73% | -3.63% | -1.79% | -3.76% | +9.27% | +18.11% | +31.47% |
| EPS | $2.02 | $1.59 | $1.57 | $1.48 | $1.80 | $1.48 | $1.60 | $1.47 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +12.22% | +7.43% | -1.88% | +0.68% | -1.64% | +10.45% | +20.30% | +33.64% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 28.02% | 28.00% | 27.62% | 28.16% | 26.53% | 28.34% | 28.29% | 28.15% |
| Operating Margin | 12.27% | 11.58% | 11.54% | 12.17% | 12.36% | 11.91% | 12.47% | 12.17% |
| Net Margin | 9.73% | 9.14% | 9.19% | 9.61% | 9.92% | 9.64% | 9.97% | 10.04% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 10.44% | 8.70% | 8.86% | 8.59% | 10.65% | 9.29% | 10.27% | 9.86% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 4.15% | 3.32% | 3.50% | 3.35% | 3.94% | 3.28% | 3.59% | 3.37% |
Technical Analysis
ROST is currently in a strong advancing uptrend characterized by a golden cross with price well above the 50 and 200-day SMAs. Momentum shows neutrality with RSI around 60, indicating room for continuation without overbought risk, while the low ADX suggests the current move lacks strong trend conviction and may consolidate. The stock is near its 52-week high, showing strength but also potential short-term resistance.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Range-bound market
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Ross Stores (ROST) continues to demonstrate solid fundamental health, characterized by steady revenue growth, expanding earnings, and consistently strong profitability metrics. The company has regularly outperformed earnings expectations, operates with healthy margins, and benefits from a resilient off-price retail model.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$2.00
Estimated
$1.90
Surprise
+$0.10
Surprise %
+5.26%
Revenue
Actual
$6.64B
Estimated
$6.41B
Surprise
+$220.52M
Surprise %
+3.44%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $2.00 | $1.58 | $1.56 | $1.47 | $1.79 | $1.48 | $1.59 | $1.46 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $1.90 | $1.42 | $1.53 | $1.44 | $1.66 | $1.41 | $1.50 | $1.35 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.10 | +$0.16 | +$0.03 | +$0.03 | +$0.13 | +$0.07 | +$0.09 | +$0.11 |
| % Diff | +5.3% | +11.3% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +7.8% | +5.0% | +6.0% | +8.1% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $6.64B | $5.6B | $5.53B | $4.98B | $5.91B | $5.07B | $5.29B | $4.86B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $6.41B | $5.42B | $5.54B | $4.96B | $5.94B | $5.15B | $5.25B | $4.83B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$220.52M | +$182.01M | -$14.52M | +$24.73M | -$31.19M | -$77.11M | +$39.7M | +$25.57M |
| % Diff | +3.4% | +3.4% | -0.3% | +0.5% | -0.5% | -1.5% | +0.8% | +0.5% |
Valuation
Ross Stores (ROST) currently trades at a premium relative to its historical valuation and sector averages, supported by solid fundamentals and consistent revenue growth. Analyst sentiment is generally positive, with a consensus rating leaning towards a moderate buy, although price targets suggest a modest downside risk compared to the current price. The company's financial health and profitability metrics are strong, justifying much of the premium, but elevated multiples signal the market is pricing in continued growth and operational excellence.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 23.35 | 25.07 | 21.84 | 23.81 | 20.91 | 23.63 | 21.91 | 22.20 |
| Price to Sales | 9.09 | 9.17 | 8.03 | 9.16 | 8.30 | 9.11 | 8.74 | 8.92 |
| Price to Book | 9.75 | 8.73 | 7.74 | 8.19 | 8.91 | 8.78 | 9.00 | 8.76 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 64.20 | 53.68 | 51.33 | 60.93 | 55.49 | 61.50 | 57.23 | 58.31 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 9.18 | 9.37 | 8.25 | 9.40 | 8.46 | 9.39 | 8.96 | 9.16 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Ross Stores (ROST) exhibits a generally positive market sentiment driven by strong Q4 earnings beats, revenue growth, and bullish analyst recommendations. Despite some valuation concerns due to a premium P/E ratio, the stock benefits from defensive retail positioning and increased capital returns, supporting investor confidence.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Ross Stores presents a solid financial profile with stable liquidity and managed leverage, supported by record sales growth and comparable store sales increases. The company faces moderate risks from tariffs, inflationary pressures, and competitive dynamics in the off-price retail sector but maintains a growth-oriented outlook with planned store expansions. Overall, Ross demonstrates resilience in its operating model with a generally positive risk-reward profile for investors.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 1.58 | 1.52 | 1.58 | 1.55 | 1.62 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.54 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.04 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 1.09 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 1.18 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 1.58(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 1.04(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.84(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.34(Moderate)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about ROST
AI Answers: Common Questions About ROST
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Ross Stores, Inc.
ROST is a good buy for medium- and long-term investors given its strong fundamentals (7.7% revenue growth, 9.43% net margin, ROE ~40%) and resilient business model. The current price of $221.16 is near analyst targets and technical resistance, so short-term entry may be less attractive, but long-term prospects remain robust. The premium P/E of 33.46 is justified by consistent earnings outperformance and high margins.
Unless your horizon is very short-term or you are concerned about valuation, there is no strong reason to sell; fundamentals are improving, technicals remain bullish above support, and sentiment is positive. Only consider trimming if the stock fails to break above $226.64 resistance or if macro conditions deteriorate sharply.
The biggest risks are tariff impacts on China-sourced goods, inflationary pressures (notably labor and freight), and competitive threats from TJX, e-commerce, and other discounters. Debt-to-equity is moderate at 0.84, and liquidity ratios are healthy (current ratio >1.5), but macro shocks could pressure margins and growth.
Analyst targets cluster in the $220-$250 range, with technical resistance at $226.64 and potential extension to $230 if a breakout occurs. Downside support is at $205 and $170, so risk/reward is balanced near current levels with upside if resistance is cleared.
ROST is fairly valued at a premium: P/E is 33.46 (about 60% above sector average), EV/EBITDA is at a five-year high, and price-to-sales is also elevated. However, these are supported by superior margins, growth, and returns, so the premium is justified for quality growth exposure.
Fundamentals are very strong: revenue and EPS are growing faster than peers, gross margin is steady at ~28%, net margin is 9.43%, and ROE is around 40%. The balance sheet is solid with moderate leverage and strong liquidity, supporting continued expansion and shareholder returns.
Technically, ROST is in a bullish uptrend above all major moving averages, with a golden cross active and RSI at 60 indicating room for further gains. However, the stock is near resistance at $226.64, so a breakout or pullback is possible; support is at $205 and $170.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports (which have consistently beaten estimates), continued store rollout and market share gains, and further analyst upgrades. Macro events such as shifts in consumer spending, inflation trends, or tariff changes could also impact performance.
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