SBUX AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

$96.60-0.32 (-0.33%) today

Open
$97.14
High
$97.28
Low
$96.06
Volume
4.54M
Mkt Cap
$110.06B
52W High
$104.82
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
SBUXStarbucks Corporation
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Starbucks (SBUX) offers a resilient brand and steady revenue growth, but faces significant margin compression, high valuation, and operational risks that limit near-term upside. Technicals are bullish in the short run, but fundamentals and valuation warrant caution for new long-term positions. Investors should monitor cost trends and execution of strategic initiatives before increasing exposure.

By Timeframe
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Short
HOLD
Medium
WAIT
Long
Agent Signals
131
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) demonstrates a robust revenue profile but faces margin compression and subdued earnings growth relative to its historical standards. While top-line resilience remains evident, persistent cost pressures and a high valuation keep risk factors elevated. The outlook is cautiously constructive with selective opportunities for long-term investors but near-term headwinds must be acknowledged.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5B$10.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)0%3%6%9%12%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$9.91B

5.43% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$293.30M

-62.44% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

2.96%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

5.43%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-62.44%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

5.13%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-62.32%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-11.96%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue9.9B9.6B9.5B8.8B9.4B9.1B9.1B8.6B
Revenue Growth YoY+5.43%+5.46%+3.75%+2.32%-0.29%-3.20%-0.59%-1.80%
Net Income293.3M133.1M558.3M384.2M780.8M909.2M1.1B772.4M
Net Income Growth YoY-62.44%-85.36%-47.07%-50.26%-23.78%-25.43%-7.61%-14.96%
EPS$0.26$0.12$0.49$0.34$0.69$0.80$0.93$0.68
EPS Growth YoY-62.32%-85.00%-47.31%-50.00%-23.33%-25.23%-7.00%-13.92%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

15.63%

TTM

Operating Margin

9.18%

TTM

Net Margin

2.96%

TTM

Return on Equity

-17.22%

TTM

Return on Assets

4.45%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin15.63%23.11%22.80%21.09%24.49%26.25%27.91%25.58%
Operating Margin9.18%9.91%9.89%6.86%11.94%14.40%16.65%12.83%
Net Margin2.96%1.39%5.90%4.39%8.31%10.02%11.57%9.02%
Return on Equity (ROE)-3.50%-1.64%-7.26%-5.04%-10.45%-12.21%-13.28%-9.14%
Return on Assets (ROA)0.95%0.47%1.86%1.37%2.75%3.26%3.93%2.97%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

SBUX is currently in a strong uptrend with price trading above key moving averages and a recent golden cross signaling bullish momentum. The RSI indicates neutral momentum, suggesting room for further gains without overbought conditions. The stock is in a Stage 2 advancing phase typical of institutional accumulation and uptrend continuation.

RSI
Hold
Neutral56

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+7.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend24

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$96.60
50 SMA
$95.59
150 SMA
$88.95
200 SMA
$89.63
52W High
$104.82
52W Low
$75.50

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
56Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) demonstrates a robust revenue profile but faces margin compression and subdued earnings growth relative to its historical standards. While top-line resilience remains evident, persistent cost pressures and a high valuation keep risk factors elevated. The outlook is cautiously constructive with selective opportunities for long-term investors but near-term headwinds must be acknowledged.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 28, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$0.56

Estimated

$0.59

Surprise

$-0.03

Surprise %

-4.44%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$9.92B

Estimated

$9.65B

Surprise

+$260.9M

Surprise %

+2.70%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.56$0.52$0.50$0.41$0.69$0.80$0.93$0.68
EPS (Estimated)$0.59$0.56$0.65$0.49$0.68$1.03$0.93$0.79
EPS Surprise-$0.03-$0.04-$0.15-$0.08+$0.01-$0.23+$0.00-$0.11
% Diff-4.4%-6.5%-22.7%-15.6%+1.5%-22.3%+0.0%-13.9%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$9.92B$9.57B$9.46B$8.76B$9.4B$9.07B$9.11B$8.56B
Revenue (Estimated)$9.65B$9.33B$9.29B$8.83B$9.32B$9.2B$9.25B$9.12B
Revenue Surprise+$260.9M+$241.63M+$161.14M-$68.2M+$82.26M-$124.5M-$135.04M-$560.48M
% Diff+2.7%+2.6%+1.7%-0.8%+0.9%-1.4%-1.5%-6.1%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Starbucks (SBUX) is currently trading at elevated valuation multiples well above industry averages, reflecting market optimism despite recent earnings challenges. The company's moderate revenue growth contrasts with declining earnings, leading to high price multiples that suggest investor anticipation of future operational improvements or expansion opportunities. Analyst sentiment remains cautiously positive with a consensus leaning towards Buy or Hold, supported by an average price target slightly above current levels.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

80.31

TTM

Price to Sales

2.92

TTM

Price to Book

-13.10

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

26.72

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

3.72

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings83.00183.5246.6372.5132.9130.4920.7133.55
Price to Sales9.8310.2111.0112.7210.9412.229.5912.10
Price to Book-11.61-12.07-13.55-14.62-13.76-14.88-11.00-12.27
Enterprise Value to EBITDA93.6285.8790.72126.5879.0276.8856.0682.27
Enterprise Value to Revenue12.8712.6613.5215.3813.3014.7012.0114.72

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Starbucks currently exhibits mixed market sentiment driven by strong strategic initiatives and product innovation balanced against labor challenges and valuation concerns. Analysts generally offer a hold-to-buy consensus with price targets around $100-$103, reflecting cautious optimism about growth in China and digital engagement. Social media sentiment is relatively positive but tempered by labor relations discourse and moderation in stock momentum.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.4 / 5.0
Based on 39 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
3
Hold
19
Buy
12
Strong Buy
4

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Starbucks (SBUX) faces a moderate investment risk level given its substantial debt load, challenging operational environment, and margin pressures from rising costs. While liquidity is tight and debt levels elevated, the company is executing strategic initiatives to revive growth, particularly in China and the U.S., supported by solid market sentiment and analyst buy consensus. Execution risks, labor challenges, and competitive intensity remain key concerns impacting potential return outcomes.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.05

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.86

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

-4.00

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

1.04

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.050.720.760.640.750.750.890.86
Quick Ratio0.860.510.550.450.570.560.650.63
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity-4.00-3.29-3.63-3.41-3.46-3.46-3.18-2.98
Debt-to-Assets1.040.830.830.820.810.820.840.86

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.05(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 0.86(Adequate)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: -4.00(Low)

Debt-to-Assets: 1.04(High)

The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.

Frequently Asked Questions about SBUX

AI Answers: Common Questions About SBUX

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is not a compelling buy at current levels for long-term investors, given its high P/E ratio (~80x), declining EPS (down 50.8% YoY), and margin pressures. However, short-term traders may find opportunity as technicals are bullish and price targets cluster near $100-$104.

If you are a short-term trader, there is no immediate technical reason to sell as the uptrend is intact. Long-term holders should consider trimming if margin trends worsen or if price approaches resistance ($100-$104) without fundamental improvement.

The biggest risks are margin compression from rising labor and input costs (net margin down to 5.0%), high leverage (debt-to-assets >1, negative equity), and execution risk in China and U.S. turnaround. Liquidity ratios are tight (current ratio ~1.05, quick ratio <1), raising short-term cash flow concerns.

Analyst targets range from $74 to $126, with a median near $100; technical resistance is at $100 and $104.82. Upside is mid-single digits from current levels, with support at $95.59 and $89.63.

The stock is overvalued on most metrics: P/E is ~80x (vs. peer average 20-30x), EV/EBITDA is ~24x, and price-to-sales is more reasonable. Current valuation assumes a rapid turnaround that is not yet visible in earnings.

Fundamentals are mixed: revenue is growing (2.8% YoY), but margins are contracting (gross margin down to 24.2%, net margin to 5.0%), and EPS has halved. Balance sheet is stretched with high leverage and tight liquidity.

Technical analysis is bullish: price is above all major moving averages, a golden cross is active, and RSI is neutral (55.8), suggesting room for further gains. Key support is at $95.59/$89.63, resistance at $100/$104.82.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (margin recovery), China JV execution, new product launches, and resolution of labor disputes. Watch for signs of cost stabilization and digital engagement growth.

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