SHW AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) remains a fundamentally strong, market-leading company with stable margins and recurring demand, but faces valuation headwinds, high leverage, and technical weakness. While long-term prospects are solid, current price action and risk factors suggest limited near-term upside. Investors should be patient, with better entry points likely if technicals or valuation improve.
Fundamentals
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) demonstrates steady operational performance, delivering consistent revenue growth and stable profitability margins despite cyclical industry trends. While earnings growth has moderated, the company retains strong cash generation and robust market leadership, bolstering its investment case.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
5.64% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-0.69% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.6B | 6.4B | 6.3B | 5.3B | 5.3B | 6.2B | 6.3B | 5.4B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +5.64% | +3.18% | +0.69% | -1.15% | +0.86% | +0.75% | +0.50% | -1.38% |
| Net Income | 476.8M | 833.1M | 754.7M | 503.9M | 480.1M | 806.2M | 889.9M | 505.2M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -0.69% | +3.34% | -15.19% | -0.26% | +34.78% | +5.87% | +12.12% | +5.82% |
| EPS | $1.94 | $3.38 | $3.04 | $2.02 | $1.92 | $3.22 | $3.55 | $2.00 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +1.04% | +4.97% | -14.37% | +1.00% | +37.14% | +7.69% | +14.52% | +7.53% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 48.84% | 49.16% | 49.38% | 48.23% | 48.58% | 49.13% | 48.85% | 47.16% |
| Operating Margin | 13.92% | 18.44% | 17.41% | 14.22% | 12.71% | 18.35% | 19.64% | 13.52% |
| Net Margin | 8.52% | 13.10% | 11.95% | 9.50% | 9.06% | 13.08% | 14.19% | 9.41% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 10.37% | 18.83% | 17.15% | 12.20% | 11.85% | 19.40% | 23.72% | 14.42% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 3.43% | 5.57% | 5.39% | 3.75% | 3.83% | 6.37% | 7.16% | 4.20% |
Technical Analysis
Unable to retrieve authoritative internal technical indicator data for SHW at this moment. However, based on external technical analysis data gathered, SHW is currently experiencing sideways to mildly bearish price action with key resistance near its 52-week highs. Momentum appears to be weakening as the stock faces selling pressure below major moving averages.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Trend developing
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) demonstrates steady operational performance, delivering consistent revenue growth and stable profitability margins despite cyclical industry trends. While earnings growth has moderated, the company retains strong cash generation and robust market leadership, bolstering its investment case.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$2.23
Estimated
$2.16
Surprise
+$0.07
Surprise %
+3.24%
Revenue
Actual
$5.6B
Estimated
$5.57B
Surprise
+$30.54M
Surprise %
+0.55%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $2.23 | $3.59 | $3.38 | $2.25 | $2.09 | $3.37 | $3.70 | $2.17 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $2.16 | $3.45 | $3.76 | $2.15 | $2.06 | $3.54 | $3.48 | $2.21 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.07 | +$0.14 | -$0.38 | +$0.10 | +$0.03 | -$0.17 | +$0.22 | -$0.04 |
| % Diff | +3.2% | +4.1% | -10.1% | +4.7% | +1.5% | -4.8% | +6.3% | -1.8% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $5.6B | $6.36B | $6.31B | $5.31B | $5.3B | $6.16B | $6.27B | $5.37B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $5.57B | $6.2B | $6.29B | $5.4B | $5.32B | $6.2B | $6.33B | $5.5B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$30.54M | +$153.5M | +$20.79M | -$93.33M | -$22.03M | -$37.99M | -$59.23M | -$131.72M |
| % Diff | +0.5% | +2.5% | +0.3% | -1.7% | -0.4% | -0.6% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
Valuation
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) presents a valuation profile that leans towards premium multiples compared to its industry and peers, reflecting investor confidence in its sustained growth and profitability. The company exhibits solid financial health with strong margins and return metrics, albeit trading at elevated multiples driven by growth expectations and market leadership. Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive with price targets offering moderate upside from current levels.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 41.86 | 25.58 | 28.31 | 43.21 | 44.73 | 29.66 | 20.86 | 42.25 |
| Price to Sales | 14.27 | 13.41 | 13.53 | 16.41 | 16.22 | 15.52 | 11.84 | 15.91 |
| Price to Book | 17.36 | 19.26 | 19.42 | 21.09 | 21.20 | 23.01 | 19.79 | 24.37 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 108.38 | 73.32 | 77.70 | 108.65 | 111.41 | 83.87 | 60.06 | 109.23 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 16.83 | 15.51 | 15.51 | 18.79 | 18.42 | 17.45 | 13.77 | 18.24 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Market sentiment for Sherwin-Williams (SHW) remains generally positive with a "Moderate Buy" analyst consensus and strong financial performance, including better-than-expected Q4 earnings and consistent dividend increases. However, cautious outlooks for softer demand and pricing concerns introduce some valuation-related reservations among investors.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Sherwin-Williams (SHW) exhibits a moderate to high financial risk profile due to its elevated leverage and below-ideal liquidity ratios. The company faces regulatory and market headwinds including labor lawsuits and inflationary cost pressures amid a softening demand environment in the construction sector. However, its dominant market position, strong profitability, and strategic growth initiatives provide some cushioning against these challenges.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.53 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 3.16 | 3.07 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.94 | 2.91 | 3.28 | 3.62 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 0.54 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.87(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.53(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 3.16(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.56(High)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about SHW
AI Answers: Common Questions About SHW
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about The Sherwin-Williams Company
SHW is not an ideal buy at current levels given its premium P/E of 34.14, high leverage, and technical weakness. While the company is fundamentally strong and offers stability, better entry points may emerge near $335-$340 support or if valuation multiples compress.
Unless your thesis has changed or you need to reduce risk, there is no urgent reason to sell; SHW remains fundamentally sound. However, with technicals weak and upside limited, trimming an outsized position or waiting for a technical breakout may be prudent.
The biggest risks are high financial leverage (debt/equity >3, debt >56% of assets), low liquidity (current ratio ~0.87, quick ratio ~0.53), and exposure to cyclical housing/construction demand. Regulatory and legal issues, including labor lawsuits, also pose potential headwinds.
Technical resistance is at $360-$379, with support at $335-$338. Analyst price targets range widely from $268 to $420, with the current price near $350 suggesting limited near-term upside and risk of a pullback if support breaks.
SHW is fairly valued to slightly overvalued, trading at a P/E of 34.14 and elevated EV/EBITDA and P/B ratios compared to peers. The premium is justified by quality and stability, but only if growth resumes and leverage is managed.
SHW is fundamentally strong, with gross margins near 48.9%, operating margin at 16.1%, and industry-leading ROE in the high teens to low 20s. However, earnings growth has slowed and net margin dipped to 10.9% in 2025.
Technicals are neutral to bearish: price is below both major moving averages, RSI is 45-50 (neutral), and momentum is fading. Key support is $335-$338; a breakdown could trigger further downside, while a break above $360 would be needed for bullish confirmation.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (especially if guidance improves), resolution of legal issues, and any signs of reacceleration in housing/construction demand. Watch for macro shifts or company-specific news that could impact sentiment or valuation.
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