TMUS AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)

$195.71-1.83 (-0.93%) today

Open
$197.86
High
$198.54
Low
$194.21
Volume
4.00M
Mkt Cap
$218.90B
52W High
$267.96
AI Verdict
Confidence 68%
TMUST-Mobile US, Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

T-Mobile US (TMUS) offers robust long-term fundamentals and fair valuation, but near-term technical weakness and moderate financial risk warrant a cautious approach. While sentiment and analyst targets remain bullish, the current downtrend and margin compression suggest investors should wait for technical stabilization or a catalyst before adding exposure. Long-term prospects are attractive, but short- and medium-term headwinds persist.

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Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

T-Mobile US (TMUS) maintains a fundamentally robust profile, characterized by consistent revenue growth and healthy profitability margins within the competitive U.S. wireless market. Recent quarters show a strong track record of both revenue and EPS growth, underpinned by operational execution, though the most recent quarter included a rare EPS miss against estimates. The company remains operationally efficient with sector-leading EBITDA margins that support strong earnings quality.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$6.5B$13.0B$19.5B$26.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)8%10%12%14%16%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$24.33B

11.26% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$2.10B

-29.45% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

8.64%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

11.26%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-29.45%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

16.64%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-26.74%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

0.53%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue24.3B22.0B21.1B20.9B21.9B20.2B19.8B19.6B
Revenue Growth YoY+11.26%+8.90%+6.88%+6.59%+6.81%+4.73%+3.00%-0.19%
Net Income2.1B2.7B3.2B3.0B3.0B3.1B2.9B2.4B
Net Income Growth YoY-29.45%-11.28%+10.15%+24.39%+48.01%+42.81%+31.70%+22.37%
EPS$1.89$2.42$2.84$2.59$2.58$2.62$2.50$2.00
EPS Growth YoY-26.74%-7.63%+13.60%+29.50%+48.28%+43.17%+34.41%+25.79%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

42.48%

TTM

Operating Margin

15.88%

TTM

Net Margin

8.64%

TTM

Return on Equity

18.18%

TTM

Return on Assets

5.45%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin42.48%49.29%65.10%64.57%59.83%65.14%65.85%63.83%
Operating Margin15.88%22.14%24.67%22.98%20.97%23.79%23.42%20.40%
Net Margin8.64%12.36%15.25%14.14%13.63%15.17%14.79%12.12%
Return on Equity (ROE)3.55%4.49%5.27%4.83%4.83%4.76%4.67%3.82%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.04%2.67%3.20%2.96%3.24%3.18%3.11%2.51%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

TMUS is currently in a strong downtrend characterized by a death cross and price trading well below key moving averages. Momentum is fading, with RSI in neutral territory but no bullish signs. The stock is in a stage 4 declining phase, indicating caution for bulls and favoring bearish or wait-and-see strategies.

RSI
Hold
Neutral32

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-10.9% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend23

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$195.71
50 SMA
$209.53
150 SMA
$212.11
200 SMA
$219.60
52W High
$267.96
52W Low
$181.36

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
32Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

T-Mobile US (TMUS) maintains a fundamentally robust profile, characterized by consistent revenue growth and healthy profitability margins within the competitive U.S. wireless market. Recent quarters show a strong track record of both revenue and EPS growth, underpinned by operational execution, though the most recent quarter included a rare EPS miss against estimates. The company remains operationally efficient with sector-leading EBITDA margins that support strong earnings quality.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$1.88

Estimated

$2.05

Surprise

$-0.17

Surprise %

-8.29%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$24.33B

Estimated

$24.17B

Surprise

+$159.39M

Surprise %

+0.66%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$1.88$2.59$2.84$2.58$2.57$2.61$2.49$2.00
EPS (Estimated)$2.05$2.40$2.67$2.47$2.29$2.42$2.28$1.87
EPS Surprise-$0.17+$0.19+$0.17+$0.11+$0.28+$0.19+$0.21+$0.13
% Diff-8.3%+7.9%+6.4%+4.5%+12.2%+7.9%+9.2%+7.0%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$24.33B$21.96B$21.13B$20.89B$21.87B$20.16B$19.77B$19.59B
Revenue (Estimated)$24.17B$21.91B$21.04B$20.63B$21.33B$20.01B$19.61B$19.83B
Revenue Surprise+$159.39M+$48.02M+$95.22M+$258.65M+$539.38M+$147.07M+$163.6M-$231.89M
% Diff+0.7%+0.2%+0.5%+1.3%+2.5%+0.7%+0.8%-1.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

T-Mobile US (TMUS) exhibits a solid valuation profile characterized by moderate multiples relative to the telecommunications sector, supported by consistent revenue growth yet facing some earnings pressure recently. Analyst consensus indicates a bullish outlook with target prices suggesting upside potential, underpinned by strong business fundamentals and strategic positioning in the competitive telecom landscape.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

19.86

TTM

Price to Sales

2.48

TTM

Price to Book

3.69

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

10.58

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

3.80

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings26.9224.7820.9425.7521.6419.6817.9120.30
Price to Sales9.3112.2512.7714.5611.8011.9410.609.84
Price to Book3.824.454.424.984.183.753.353.11
Enterprise Value to EBITDA45.0349.5345.2251.9546.8943.6540.3140.84
Enterprise Value to Revenue14.1017.5917.8619.7816.7817.2216.0515.40

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

The overall market sentiment for T-Mobile US (TMUS) is moderately positive with strong support from analysts and retail investors. Despite a recent pullback in stock price over the last month, the stock maintains bullish momentum fueled by strong earnings growth, strategic acquisitions, and ongoing 5G network expansion. Investor confidence is bolstered by positive analyst price targets and growing buzz around innovative product bundles and efficiency initiatives.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 29 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
7
Buy
12
Strong Buy
10

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

T-Mobile US currently exhibits moderate financial leverage and liquidity positions reflective of its aggressive expansion and competitive market stance. While its near-term liquidity is borderline adequate, high debt levels pose medium-term financial stress risks, amplified by sector-wide pricing pressure and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive pressures and evolving technology demands introduce execution and market risks that investors should weigh against growth potential.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.00

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.90

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

2.07

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.56

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.000.891.211.160.911.080.840.94
Quick Ratio0.900.801.131.080.830.990.780.86
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity2.071.991.931.981.851.811.821.86
Debt-to-Assets0.560.550.550.560.550.550.550.56

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.00(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.90(Adequate)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 2.07(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.56(High)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about TMUS

AI Answers: Common Questions About TMUS

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about T-Mobile US, Inc.

TMUS is fairly valued at a P/E of ~20 and trades well below its 52-week high, with analyst targets implying up to 24% upside. However, the current technical downtrend and margin compression suggest waiting for technical stabilization or a positive earnings catalyst before buying aggressively.

If you already own TMUS, there is no urgent reason to sell given strong fundamentals and long-term growth prospects. However, short-term traders may consider reducing exposure until the technical trend reverses or support at $181.36 is tested and holds.

The biggest risks are high leverage (debt/equity >2.0), moderate liquidity (current ratio ~1.0), and ongoing margin compression (gross margin down to 47.6%). Additional risks include competitive pricing pressure, regulatory scrutiny, and potential earnings misses if cost pressures persist.

Technical resistance is at $210-$220, with downside support near $181.36. Analyst price targets range from $235 to $280, implying 20-40% upside from current levels if fundamentals improve and technicals recover.

TMUS is fairly valued relative to peers, with a P/E of ~20 and premium EV/EBITDA reflecting its growth and cash flow profile. The current valuation is justified by sector leadership and revenue growth, but high leverage and margin risks are priced in.

TMUS remains fundamentally strong, with sector-leading EBITDA margins (>36%), consistent revenue growth (~8.5% YoY), and robust recurring cash flows. However, recent margin compression and a rare EPS miss highlight the need to monitor cost trends and competitive dynamics.

Technical analysis is bearish: TMUS is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, price below all major moving averages, and RSI near 32. No bullish reversal patterns are present; support is at $181.36 and resistance at $210-$220.

Key catalysts include the upcoming Q1 2026 earnings report, integration progress with UScellular, new bundled service launches, and further 5G network expansion. Analyst upgrades and improved margin trends could also drive a technical reversal.

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