TSM AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)
Fundamentals
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) demonstrates robust financial health with consistent revenue and net income growth, underpinned by strong operational efficiency and margin expansion. Its latest quarterly results surpassed expectations, highlighting effective execution amid a competitive semiconductor market. Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, TSM maintains a solid position driven by technological leadership and a resilient demand outlook.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
36.05% YoY
Q2 2026
Net Income
77.41% YoY
Q2 2026
Net Margin
Q2 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q2 2026
| Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3T | 1.1T | 1.1T | 989.9B | 933.8B | 839.3B | 868.5B | 759.7B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +36.05% | +35.13% | +21.59% | +30.31% | +38.65% | +41.61% | +38.84% | +38.95% |
| Net Income | 706.6B | 572.5B | 510.5B | 452.3B | 398.3B | 361.6B | 359.8B | 325.3B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +77.41% | +58.33% | +41.89% | +39.06% | +60.69% | +60.35% | +50.72% | +54.15% |
| EPS | $136.25 | $111.55 | $98.40 | $89.05 | $72.60 | $70.35 | $73.10 | $61.25 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +87.67% | +58.56% | +34.61% | +45.39% | +50.94% | +59.16% | +65.01% | +48.67% |
Profitability Metrics
Technical Analysis
TSM is currently in a technical consolidation phase within a broader advancing uptrend. The RSI sits neutral at 46, indicating balanced momentum, while the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA supporting the bullish structure, though recent price action is range-bound between moving averages. Key support near $378 aligns with the 150-day SMA, and resistance is found around $425 at the 50-day SMA, indicating critical levels to watch for directional breakout.
Earnings
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) demonstrates robust financial health with consistent revenue and net income growth, underpinned by strong operational efficiency and margin expansion. Its latest quarterly results surpassed expectations, highlighting effective execution amid a competitive semiconductor market. Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, TSM maintains a solid position driven by technological leadership and a resilient demand outlook.
Latest Earnings
Q2 2026 Earnings (Jun 30, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$4.31
Estimated
$3.87
Surprise
+$0.44
Surprise %
+11.37%
Revenue
Actual
$39.36B
Estimated
$39.83B
Surprise
-$478.46M
Surprise %
-1.20%
Historical Earnings
| Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $4.31 | $3.49 | $3.09 | $2.92 | $2.50 | $2.14 | $2.19 | $1.95 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $3.87 | $3.31 | $2.90 | $2.63 | $2.38 | $2.07 | $2.20 | $1.79 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.44 | +$0.18 | +$0.19 | +$0.29 | +$0.12 | +$0.07 | -$0.01 | +$0.16 |
| % Diff | +11.4% | +5.4% | +6.6% | +11.0% | +5.0% | +3.4% | -0.5% | +8.9% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $39.36B | $35.98B | $33.14B | $32.36B | $31.75B | $25.8B | $26.38B | $23.6B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $39.83B | $35.35B | $33.01B | $32.07B | $30.21B | $25.46B | $26.24B | $23.31B |
| Revenue Surprise | -$478.46M | +$627.66M | +$130.27M | +$286.73M | +$1.54B | +$343.82M | +$137.67M | +$293M |
| % Diff | -1.2% | +1.8% | +0.4% | +0.9% | +5.1% | +1.4% | +0.5% | +1.3% |
Valuation
TSM presents a premium valuation profile characterized by strong growth and profitability metrics. Despite its elevated multiples relative to historical averages, the company’s robust revenue and earnings growth alongside solid margins justify the current valuation in the context of the dynamic semiconductor industry. Analyst consensus supports upside potential with a predominantly positive outlook and price targets well above the current market price.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 22.11 | 19.93 | 19.87 | 18.71 | 17.25 | 16.32 | 18.60 | 19.06 |
| Price to Sales | 49.19 | 40.24 | 38.42 | 34.18 | 29.43 | 28.11 | 32.10 | 32.66 |
| Price to Book | 9.71 | 7.75 | 7.42 | 6.77 | 6.00 | 5.17 | 6.57 | 6.22 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 62.52 | 51.12 | 51.12 | 47.07 | 39.78 | 36.68 | 43.10 | 43.15 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 47.50 | 38.46 | 36.79 | 32.72 | 27.99 | 26.54 | 30.86 | 31.53 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
TSMC's market sentiment is broadly positive, supported by strong Q2 earnings growth, robust AI chip demand, and bullish analyst ratings with significant price target upside. However, valuation concerns and recent operational uncertainties due to an earthquake in Japan add caution. Retail investors show optimism tempered by valuation debate and moderate calmness amidst market volatility.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
TSMC maintains a strong financial position with robust liquidity and low leverage while benefiting from its dominant position in the semiconductor foundry market, especially driven by AI and HPC demand. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, high capital expenditures, and premium valuation reflect material risks that investors must weigh. The company’s financial health supports stability, but external macro and operational factors introduce moderate to elevated risk.
Liquidity & Solvency
Frequently Asked Questions about TSM
AI Answers: Common Questions About TSM
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Yes, TSM is a good buy for medium and long-term investors given its 20-25% EPS growth CAGR, strong margins (gross margin ~67.7%), and dominant market position. Short-term traders should wait for a breakout above $425 for confirmation.
Selling is not recommended currently as fundamentals and sentiment remain strong. Consider selling only if geopolitical risks escalate significantly or if the stock breaks down below $378 support with volume.
Key risks include geopolitical tensions in Taiwan, semiconductor industry cyclicality, high capital expenditures, and operational disruptions such as the recent Japan earthquake impact.
Analyst price targets suggest over 50% upside from the current $404.25 price, with resistance near $425 and a 52-week high of $479 as key levels.
TSM trades at a P/E of 33.69, elevated but justified by robust revenue and earnings growth, strong margins, and market leadership within a capital-intensive semiconductor industry.
TSM shows accelerating revenue growth (~9-10% FY26), expanding gross margins (~67.7%), operating margins above 60%, and EPS growth of 20-25% annually, supported by advanced technology nodes and diversified end markets.
Technically, TSM is consolidating between $378 support and $425 resistance with neutral momentum (RSI ~46). A breakout above $425 with volume would signal a bullish resumption; a breakdown below $378 risks further downside.
Strong quarterly earnings beats, increased capital expenditure targeting AI and HPC growth, and successful ramp-up of advanced process technologies are key catalysts driving positive sentiment and price appreciation.
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