TSM AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) demonstrates robust financial health with consistent revenue and net income growth, underpinned by strong operational efficiency and margin expansion. Its latest quarterly results surpassed expectations, highlighting effective execution amid a competitive semiconductor market. Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, TSM maintains a solid position driven by technological leadership and a resilient demand outlook.

Financial Highlights

Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026$0$350.0B$700.0B$1050.0B$1400.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)40%44%48%52%56%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$1.27T

36.05% YoY

Q2 2026

Net Income

$706.56B

77.41% YoY

Q2 2026

Net Margin

55.62%

Q2 2026

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

36.05%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

Net Income Growth YoY

77.41%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

36.04%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

EPS Growth YoY

87.67%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

40.24%

Latest Quarter: Q2 2026

 Q2 2026Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024
Revenue1.3T1.1T1.1T989.9B933.8B839.3B868.5B759.7B
Revenue Growth YoY+36.05%+35.13%+21.59%+30.31%+38.65%+41.61%+38.84%+38.95%
Net Income706.6B572.5B510.5B452.3B398.3B361.6B359.8B325.3B
Net Income Growth YoY+77.41%+58.33%+41.89%+39.06%+60.69%+60.35%+50.72%+54.15%
EPS$136.25$111.55$98.40$89.05$72.60$70.35$73.10$61.25
EPS Growth YoY+87.67%+58.56%+34.61%+45.39%+50.94%+59.16%+65.01%+48.67%

Profitability Metrics

No profitability metrics available

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

TSM is currently in a technical consolidation phase within a broader advancing uptrend. The RSI sits neutral at 46, indicating balanced momentum, while the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA supporting the bullish structure, though recent price action is range-bound between moving averages. Key support near $378 aligns with the 150-day SMA, and resistance is found around $425 at the 50-day SMA, indicating critical levels to watch for directional breakout.

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) demonstrates robust financial health with consistent revenue and net income growth, underpinned by strong operational efficiency and margin expansion. Its latest quarterly results surpassed expectations, highlighting effective execution amid a competitive semiconductor market. Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, TSM maintains a solid position driven by technological leadership and a resilient demand outlook.

Latest Earnings

Q2 2026 Earnings (Jun 30, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$4.31

Estimated

$3.87

Surprise

+$0.44

Surprise %

+11.37%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$39.36B

Estimated

$39.83B

Surprise

-$478.46M

Surprise %

-1.20%

Historical Earnings

 Q2 2026Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$4.31$3.49$3.09$2.92$2.50$2.14$2.19$1.95
EPS (Estimated)$3.87$3.31$2.90$2.63$2.38$2.07$2.20$1.79
EPS Surprise+$0.44+$0.18+$0.19+$0.29+$0.12+$0.07-$0.01+$0.16
% Diff+11.4%+5.4%+6.6%+11.0%+5.0%+3.4%-0.5%+8.9%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$39.36B$35.98B$33.14B$32.36B$31.75B$25.8B$26.38B$23.6B
Revenue (Estimated)$39.83B$35.35B$33.01B$32.07B$30.21B$25.46B$26.24B$23.31B
Revenue Surprise-$478.46M+$627.66M+$130.27M+$286.73M+$1.54B+$343.82M+$137.67M+$293M
% Diff-1.2%+1.8%+0.4%+0.9%+5.1%+1.4%+0.5%+1.3%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

TSM presents a premium valuation profile characterized by strong growth and profitability metrics. Despite its elevated multiples relative to historical averages, the company’s robust revenue and earnings growth alongside solid margins justify the current valuation in the context of the dynamic semiconductor industry. Analyst consensus supports upside potential with a predominantly positive outlook and price targets well above the current market price.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

27.07

TTM

Price to Sales

13.64

TTM

Price to Book

9.41

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

17.92

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

13.15

TTM

 Q2 2026Q1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024
Price to Earnings22.1119.9319.8718.7117.2516.3218.6019.06
Price to Sales49.1940.2438.4234.1829.4328.1132.1032.66
Price to Book9.717.757.426.776.005.176.576.22
Enterprise Value to EBITDA62.5251.1251.1247.0739.7836.6843.1043.15
Enterprise Value to Revenue47.5038.4636.7932.7227.9926.5430.8631.53

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

TSMC's market sentiment is broadly positive, supported by strong Q2 earnings growth, robust AI chip demand, and bullish analyst ratings with significant price target upside. However, valuation concerns and recent operational uncertainties due to an earthquake in Japan add caution. Retail investors show optimism tempered by valuation debate and moderate calmness amidst market volatility.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Jul 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.2 / 5.0
Based on 20 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
0
Hold
2
Buy
12
Strong Buy
6

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

TSMC maintains a strong financial position with robust liquidity and low leverage while benefiting from its dominant position in the semiconductor foundry market, especially driven by AI and HPC demand. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, high capital expenditures, and premium valuation reflect material risks that investors must weigh. The company’s financial health supports stability, but external macro and operational factors introduce moderate to elevated risk.

Liquidity & Solvency

Frequently Asked Questions about TSM

AI Answers: Common Questions About TSM

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Yes, TSM is a good buy for medium and long-term investors given its 20-25% EPS growth CAGR, strong margins (gross margin ~67.7%), and dominant market position. Short-term traders should wait for a breakout above $425 for confirmation.

Selling is not recommended currently as fundamentals and sentiment remain strong. Consider selling only if geopolitical risks escalate significantly or if the stock breaks down below $378 support with volume.

Key risks include geopolitical tensions in Taiwan, semiconductor industry cyclicality, high capital expenditures, and operational disruptions such as the recent Japan earthquake impact.

Analyst price targets suggest over 50% upside from the current $404.25 price, with resistance near $425 and a 52-week high of $479 as key levels.

TSM trades at a P/E of 33.69, elevated but justified by robust revenue and earnings growth, strong margins, and market leadership within a capital-intensive semiconductor industry.

TSM shows accelerating revenue growth (~9-10% FY26), expanding gross margins (~67.7%), operating margins above 60%, and EPS growth of 20-25% annually, supported by advanced technology nodes and diversified end markets.

Technically, TSM is consolidating between $378 support and $425 resistance with neutral momentum (RSI ~46). A breakout above $425 with volume would signal a bullish resumption; a breakdown below $378 risks further downside.

Strong quarterly earnings beats, increased capital expenditure targeting AI and HPC growth, and successful ramp-up of advanced process technologies are key catalysts driving positive sentiment and price appreciation.

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