TXN AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

$214.73-0.25 (-0.12%) today

Open
$216.38
High
$217.32
Low
$213.92
Volume
4.27M
Mkt Cap
$195.50B
52W High
$231.32
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Texas Instruments (TXN) remains a fundamentally strong, industry-leading semiconductor company, but its shares are currently fully valued with near-term growth headwinds and only moderate technical upside. While long-term prospects are attractive due to secular drivers in automotive and industrial markets, the stock's premium valuation and cyclical risks warrant patience for new buyers. Existing investors may hold, but aggressive accumulation is best reserved for pullbacks or clearer signs of cyclical recovery.

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HOLD
Short
HOLD
Medium
BUY
Long
Agent Signals
131
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Texas Instruments (TXN) demonstrates strong long-term profitability and financial discipline, albeit recently challenged by a cyclical slowdown in semiconductor demand. While margin compression has emerged due to softer revenues, the company's earnings resilience reflects disciplined cost management and its entrenched market position. The outlook remains constructive, but near-term growth visibility is tempered by broader sector headwinds.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$1.5B$3.0B$4.5B$6.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)26.25%27.3%28.35%29.4%30.45%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$4.42B

10.38% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$1.16B

-3.49% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

26.29%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

10.38%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-3.49%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

10.75%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-3.79%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-3.41%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue4.4B4.7B4.4B4.1B4.0B4.2B3.8B3.7B
Revenue Growth YoY+10.38%+14.24%+16.38%+11.14%-1.72%-8.41%-15.65%-16.40%
Net Income1.2B1.4B1.3B1.2B1.2B1.4B1.1B1.1B
Net Income Growth YoY-3.49%+0.15%+14.91%+6.70%-12.11%-20.30%-34.55%-35.30%
EPS$1.27$1.50$1.42$1.29$1.32$1.49$1.23$1.21
EPS Growth YoY-3.79%+0.67%+15.45%+6.61%-12.00%-20.74%-34.92%-35.64%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

57.02%

TTM

Operating Margin

34.06%

TTM

Net Margin

28.28%

TTM

Return on Equity

30.44%

TTM

Return on Assets

16.66%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin55.89%57.42%57.89%56.84%57.75%59.60%57.85%57.22%
Operating Margin33.30%35.07%35.14%32.54%34.36%37.44%32.65%35.13%
Net Margin26.29%28.76%29.11%28.98%30.07%32.81%29.49%30.18%
Return on Equity (ROE)7.15%8.20%7.89%7.19%7.13%7.89%6.55%6.51%
Return on Assets (ROA)3.87%4.49%4.27%4.05%3.90%4.43%3.70%3.65%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

TXN is currently in a strong uptrend with price trading above key moving averages and a golden cross confirmed. Momentum is moderate but positive, supported by a healthy RSI in the neutral zone and a developing trend indicated by a rising ADX. The stock is in the advancing phase, suggesting institutional accumulation and further bullish potential.

RSI
Hold
Neutral66

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+12.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Moderate Trend24

Trend developing

Moderate
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$214.73
50 SMA
$206.69
150 SMA
$186.84
200 SMA
$190.39
52W High
$231.32
52W Low
$139.95

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
66Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Texas Instruments (TXN) demonstrates strong long-term profitability and financial discipline, albeit recently challenged by a cyclical slowdown in semiconductor demand. While margin compression has emerged due to softer revenues, the company's earnings resilience reflects disciplined cost management and its entrenched market position. The outlook remains constructive, but near-term growth visibility is tempered by broader sector headwinds.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$1.27

Estimated

$1.29

Surprise

$-0.02

Surprise %

-1.55%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$4.42B

Estimated

$4.44B

Surprise

-$14M

Surprise %

-0.32%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$1.27$1.48$1.41$1.28$1.30$1.47$1.22$1.20
EPS (Estimated)$1.29$1.49$1.36$1.07$1.20$1.38$1.17$1.07
EPS Surprise-$0.02-$0.01+$0.05+$0.21+$0.10+$0.09+$0.05+$0.13
% Diff-1.6%-0.7%+3.7%+19.6%+8.3%+6.5%+4.3%+12.1%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$4.42B$4.74B$4.45B$4.07B$4.01B$4.15B$3.82B$3.66B
Revenue (Estimated)$4.44B$4.65B$4.36B$3.91B$3.88B$4.12B$3.82B$3.61B
Revenue Surprise-$14M+$96.63M+$83.39M+$161.17M+$122.7M+$31.28M+$994.49K+$47.33M
% Diff-0.3%+2.1%+1.9%+4.1%+3.2%+0.8%+0.0%+1.3%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Texas Instruments (TXN) currently trades at a premium valuation compared to its historical averages and semiconductor sector peers, reflecting strong financial fundamentals and stable growth prospects. Analysts mostly maintain a Hold consensus with a modest price target upside around the current price, balancing the company's solid earnings growth and robust margins against the premium multiples.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

39.03

TTM

Price to Sales

11.06

TTM

Price to Book

11.99

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

25.17

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

11.74

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings33.9030.6136.3934.6735.4834.6239.3735.65
Price to Sales35.6635.2242.3840.1942.6845.4346.4443.04
Price to Book9.6910.0411.499.9710.1210.9210.319.28
Enterprise Value to EBITDA82.0679.2895.3793.9595.0496.11107.2395.59
Enterprise Value to Revenue38.4137.4844.8642.6745.6348.3249.3546.24

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Texas Instruments (TXN) is currently experiencing a cautiously optimistic market sentiment driven by positive analyst upgrades, recent product launches, and favorable industry forecasts. Although the consensus among analysts leans towards a 'Hold,' there is a growing faction recommending 'Buy' based on strong expected free cash flow and margin improvements. Retail and institutional confidence has been bolstered by TXN's innovation in automotive and data center semiconductors and a supportive semiconductor market outlook.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.3 / 5.0
Based on 38 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
4
Hold
18
Buy
13
Strong Buy
2

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Texas Instruments demonstrates strong financial health with robust liquidity and moderate leverage, supporting resilience amid semiconductors sector cyclicality. However, continued demand uncertainty in key industrial and automotive markets, along with geopolitical risks related to China, pose material strategic and operational challenges for near-term growth. Investor sentiment is cautious given the company's high valuation and potential pressure on margins due to pricing trends and elevated capital expenditures.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

4.35

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

2.83

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.95

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.45

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio4.354.455.815.264.124.314.624.91
Quick Ratio2.832.903.883.372.883.143.493.76
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.950.840.860.780.890.840.810.84
Debt-to-Assets0.450.400.400.380.420.410.400.41

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 4.35(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 2.83(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.95(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.45(Moderate)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about TXN

AI Answers: Common Questions About TXN

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Texas Instruments Incorporated

TXN is not a compelling buy at current levels ($214.73, P/E 37.67), as shares trade at a premium to historical and sector averages and near-term growth is muted. While the company is fundamentally strong, better entry points may emerge on pullbacks or after clearer signs of cyclical recovery.

There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own TXN, as technicals remain bullish and fundamentals are intact, but with valuation stretched and earnings momentum slowing, trimming or holding is prudent until a more attractive risk/reward emerges.

The biggest risks are cyclical demand weakness in key industrial and automotive markets, margin compression from pricing pressures, and geopolitical exposure to China, which accounts for a significant portion of revenue. Debt is moderate (debt-to-assets ~44.5%), but liquidity is strong, mitigating near-term financial risk.

Technical resistance is near $220-$225, with a 52-week high at $231.32; analyst targets cluster around current levels with some upside to $250, but most see limited near-term appreciation. Support is at $206.69 (50 SMA) and $190.39 (200 SMA).

TXN is overvalued by most metrics: P/E is 37.67 (well above its 10-year median and sector average), P/S and EV/EBITDA are also at historical highs, and the market is pricing in optimistic growth and margin resilience. This compresses the margin of safety for new buyers.

Fundamentally, TXN is very strong: gross margin averaged ~57% in 2025, net margin is 28.3%, ROE is ~22%, and the balance sheet is robust with a current ratio above 4 and strong free cash flow. However, recent quarters have seen margin and earnings compression due to cyclical headwinds.

Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend above all key moving averages (golden cross active), with RSI at 66 indicating healthy but not overbought momentum. Immediate resistance is at $220-$231, with support at $206.69; the trend remains positive but upside is limited by valuation.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (Q1 2026), which could signal demand recovery, new product launches in automotive and data center chips, and macro events such as government semiconductor support or easing of China trade tensions. Analyst upgrades and sector rotation into semiconductors could also drive sentiment.

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