TXN AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

$197.98-4.41 (-2.18%) today

Open
$200.48
High
$201.94
Low
$194.77
Volume
7.52M
Mkt Cap
$179.89B
52W High
$231.32
AI Verdict
Confidence 86%
TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Texas Instruments (TXN) is fundamentally solid with strong cash flow and leading analog market share, but faces margin compression, cyclical headwinds, and a premium valuation. Technicals remain bullish in the short term, but sentiment and valuation suggest limited upside, making the stock best suited for patient investors awaiting clearer catalysts. The overall risk/reward is balanced, with moderate risk and modest upside potential over the next 12–24 months.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
HOLD
Short
HOLD
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Texas Instruments (TXN) demonstrates stable cash generation and strong market positioning in analog semiconductors, but faces margin compression and muted earnings growth in a cyclical sector. While fundamentals remain solid, recent growth has slowed, and the stock commands a rich valuation, suggesting a balanced risk/reward profile at current levels. Technical and sentiment cues further support a patient, wait-and-see approach.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$1.5B$3.0B$4.5B$6.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)26.25%27.3%28.35%29.4%30.45%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$4.42B

10.38% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$1.16B

-3.49% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

26.29%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

10.38%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-3.49%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

10.75%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-3.79%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-3.41%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue4.4B4.7B4.4B4.1B4.0B4.2B3.8B3.7B
Revenue Growth YoY+10.38%+14.24%+16.38%+11.14%-1.72%-8.41%-15.65%-16.40%
Net Income1.2B1.4B1.3B1.2B1.2B1.4B1.1B1.1B
Net Income Growth YoY-3.49%+0.15%+14.91%+6.70%-12.11%-20.30%-34.55%-35.30%
EPS$1.27$1.50$1.42$1.29$1.32$1.49$1.23$1.21
EPS Growth YoY-3.79%+0.67%+15.45%+6.61%-12.00%-20.74%-34.92%-35.64%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

55.89%

TTM

Operating Margin

33.30%

TTM

Net Margin

26.29%

TTM

Return on Equity

30.44%

TTM

Return on Assets

16.66%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin55.89%57.42%57.89%56.84%57.75%59.60%57.85%57.22%
Operating Margin33.30%35.07%35.14%32.54%34.36%37.44%32.65%35.13%
Net Margin26.29%28.76%29.11%28.98%30.07%32.81%29.49%30.18%
Return on Equity (ROE)7.15%8.20%7.89%7.19%7.13%7.89%6.55%6.51%
Return on Assets (ROA)3.87%4.49%4.27%4.05%3.90%4.43%3.70%3.65%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

TXN is currently in a strong uptrend with bullish technical signals highlighted by a golden cross and price trading above key moving averages. Momentum indicators such as ADX confirm the strength of the trend, although the RSI shows a neutral reading signaling no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. Key support near the 50-day SMA around $201 supports the current price level, while resistance is seen near the recent 52-week high of $231.

RSI
Hold
Neutral34

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

+4.3% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend33

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Hold
Golden Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$197.98
50 SMA
$202.38
150 SMA
$186.56
200 SMA
$189.90
52W High
$231.32
52W Low
$139.95

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
34Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Texas Instruments (TXN) demonstrates stable cash generation and strong market positioning in analog semiconductors, but faces margin compression and muted earnings growth in a cyclical sector. While fundamentals remain solid, recent growth has slowed, and the stock commands a rich valuation, suggesting a balanced risk/reward profile at current levels. Technical and sentiment cues further support a patient, wait-and-see approach.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$1.27

Estimated

$1.29

Surprise

$-0.02

Surprise %

-1.55%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$4.42B

Estimated

$4.44B

Surprise

-$14M

Surprise %

-0.32%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$1.27$1.48$1.41$1.28$1.30$1.47$1.22$1.20
EPS (Estimated)$1.29$1.49$1.36$1.07$1.20$1.38$1.17$1.07
EPS Surprise-$0.02-$0.01+$0.05+$0.21+$0.10+$0.09+$0.05+$0.13
% Diff-1.6%-0.7%+3.7%+19.6%+8.3%+6.5%+4.3%+12.1%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$4.42B$4.74B$4.45B$4.07B$4.01B$4.15B$3.82B$3.66B
Revenue (Estimated)$4.44B$4.65B$4.36B$3.91B$3.88B$4.12B$3.82B$3.61B
Revenue Surprise-$14M+$96.63M+$83.39M+$161.17M+$122.7M+$31.28M+$994.49K+$47.33M
% Diff-0.3%+2.1%+1.9%+4.1%+3.2%+0.8%+0.0%+1.3%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Texas Instruments (TXN) currently trades at a valuation that suggests it is modestly undervalued relative to its intrinsic value and most peers within the semiconductor industry. Analysts generally have a Hold rating with a price target implying a moderate upside, reflecting confidence in the company’s stable earnings growth and strong free cash flow despite some near-term industry challenges. The valuation multiples show a premium compared to the broader sector but remain below high-growth peer averages, indicating a balanced risk-reward profile.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

35.99

TTM

Price to Sales

10.17

TTM

Price to Book

11.06

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

23.27

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

10.86

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings33.9030.6136.3934.6735.4834.6239.3735.65
Price to Sales35.6635.2242.3840.1942.6845.4346.4443.04
Price to Book9.6910.0411.499.9710.1210.9210.319.28
Enterprise Value to EBITDA82.0679.2895.3793.9595.0496.11107.2395.59
Enterprise Value to Revenue38.4137.4844.8642.6745.6348.3249.3546.24

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

The overall sentiment for Texas Instruments (TXN) is mixed but leaning towards cautious optimism. Analysts mostly recommend a Hold with moderate upside potential based on improving free cash flow and capacity expansion, although concerns remain about margin pressures and valuation. Retail sentiment reflects divided opinions with debates on valuation, growth prospects, and industry impact from AI.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Hold
3.3 / 5.0
Based on 37 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
4
Hold
18
Buy
12
Strong Buy
2

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Texas Instruments (TXN) demonstrates a robust financial position with strong liquidity and a moderately leveraged balance sheet, supporting its ability to withstand typical semiconductor industry cyclicality. However, the company faces several sector-specific risks including intense competition, geopolitical tensions, and market cyclicality which introduce uncertainty to its growth outlook. Despite these challenges, TXN's solid capital structure and cash flow generation reduce immediate financial distress risk.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

4.35

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

2.83

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.95

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.45

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio4.354.455.815.264.124.314.624.91
Quick Ratio2.832.903.883.372.883.143.493.76
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.950.840.860.780.890.840.810.84
Debt-to-Assets0.450.400.400.380.420.410.400.41

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 4.35(Strong)

Quick Ratio: 2.83(Strong)

The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.95(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.45(Moderate)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about TXN

AI Answers: Common Questions About TXN

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Texas Instruments Incorporated

TXN is not a strong buy at current levels ($202.67) given its P/E of 37.2 (above sector average), margin compression, and a price near technical support but well below resistance. While long-term fundamentals are solid, the stock is fairly valued and better entry points may emerge if margins or demand improve.

There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own TXN, as fundamentals remain strong and technicals are stable. However, if you seek higher growth or are concerned about continued margin pressure and limited upside, trimming or reallocating may be considered.

The biggest risks are cyclical demand swings in semiconductors, margin compression (gross margin down to ~57%, net margin 28.3%), and geopolitical tensions (notably US-China). Moderate leverage (debt/equity ~0.95) and sector volatility also warrant caution.

Technical resistance is at $231 (52-week high), with support at $201 (50-day SMA) and $186–$190 (longer-term averages). Analyst price targets range from $185–$260, but most see fair value in the $175–$185 range, suggesting limited upside unless a breakout occurs.

TXN is fairly valued: its P/E (37.2) and EV/EBITDA are above the sector average but below high-growth peers, reflecting its stable cash flow and mature business. The price-to-book is elevated, but justified by asset efficiency and franchise strength.

Fundamentally, TXN is strong: it generates robust free cash flow, maintains high liquidity (current ratio >4.3), and has sector-leading margins, though these have compressed recently. EPS and revenue are rebounding but remain below pre-2024 highs.

Technically, TXN is in a bullish uptrend with a golden cross and price above key moving averages; RSI is neutral (38.4), and the next resistance is at $231. No major reversal patterns are present, but a breakout or breakdown from current levels will be key.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (especially margin and cash flow guidance), ramp-up of new manufacturing capacity, and macro events impacting semiconductor demand. Watch for management updates and sector-wide news on AI and industrial chip adoption.

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