TXN AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)
Texas Instruments (TXN) remains a fundamentally strong, industry-leading semiconductor company, but its shares are currently fully valued with near-term growth headwinds and only moderate technical upside. While long-term prospects are attractive due to secular drivers in automotive and industrial markets, the stock's premium valuation and cyclical risks warrant patience for new buyers. Existing investors may hold, but aggressive accumulation is best reserved for pullbacks or clearer signs of cyclical recovery.
Fundamentals
Texas Instruments (TXN) demonstrates strong long-term profitability and financial discipline, albeit recently challenged by a cyclical slowdown in semiconductor demand. While margin compression has emerged due to softer revenues, the company's earnings resilience reflects disciplined cost management and its entrenched market position. The outlook remains constructive, but near-term growth visibility is tempered by broader sector headwinds.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
10.38% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-3.49% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4B | 4.7B | 4.4B | 4.1B | 4.0B | 4.2B | 3.8B | 3.7B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +10.38% | +14.24% | +16.38% | +11.14% | -1.72% | -8.41% | -15.65% | -16.40% |
| Net Income | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.3B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.1B | 1.1B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -3.49% | +0.15% | +14.91% | +6.70% | -12.11% | -20.30% | -34.55% | -35.30% |
| EPS | $1.27 | $1.50 | $1.42 | $1.29 | $1.32 | $1.49 | $1.23 | $1.21 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -3.79% | +0.67% | +15.45% | +6.61% | -12.00% | -20.74% | -34.92% | -35.64% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 55.89% | 57.42% | 57.89% | 56.84% | 57.75% | 59.60% | 57.85% | 57.22% |
| Operating Margin | 33.30% | 35.07% | 35.14% | 32.54% | 34.36% | 37.44% | 32.65% | 35.13% |
| Net Margin | 26.29% | 28.76% | 29.11% | 28.98% | 30.07% | 32.81% | 29.49% | 30.18% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 7.15% | 8.20% | 7.89% | 7.19% | 7.13% | 7.89% | 6.55% | 6.51% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 3.87% | 4.49% | 4.27% | 4.05% | 3.90% | 4.43% | 3.70% | 3.65% |
Technical Analysis
TXN is currently in a strong uptrend with price trading above key moving averages and a golden cross confirmed. Momentum is moderate but positive, supported by a healthy RSI in the neutral zone and a developing trend indicated by a rising ADX. The stock is in the advancing phase, suggesting institutional accumulation and further bullish potential.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Trend developing
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Texas Instruments (TXN) demonstrates strong long-term profitability and financial discipline, albeit recently challenged by a cyclical slowdown in semiconductor demand. While margin compression has emerged due to softer revenues, the company's earnings resilience reflects disciplined cost management and its entrenched market position. The outlook remains constructive, but near-term growth visibility is tempered by broader sector headwinds.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$1.27
Estimated
$1.29
Surprise
$-0.02
Surprise %
-1.55%
Revenue
Actual
$4.42B
Estimated
$4.44B
Surprise
-$14M
Surprise %
-0.32%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $1.27 | $1.48 | $1.41 | $1.28 | $1.30 | $1.47 | $1.22 | $1.20 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $1.29 | $1.49 | $1.36 | $1.07 | $1.20 | $1.38 | $1.17 | $1.07 |
| EPS Surprise | -$0.02 | -$0.01 | +$0.05 | +$0.21 | +$0.10 | +$0.09 | +$0.05 | +$0.13 |
| % Diff | -1.6% | -0.7% | +3.7% | +19.6% | +8.3% | +6.5% | +4.3% | +12.1% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $4.42B | $4.74B | $4.45B | $4.07B | $4.01B | $4.15B | $3.82B | $3.66B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $4.44B | $4.65B | $4.36B | $3.91B | $3.88B | $4.12B | $3.82B | $3.61B |
| Revenue Surprise | -$14M | +$96.63M | +$83.39M | +$161.17M | +$122.7M | +$31.28M | +$994.49K | +$47.33M |
| % Diff | -0.3% | +2.1% | +1.9% | +4.1% | +3.2% | +0.8% | +0.0% | +1.3% |
Valuation
Texas Instruments (TXN) currently trades at a premium valuation compared to its historical averages and semiconductor sector peers, reflecting strong financial fundamentals and stable growth prospects. Analysts mostly maintain a Hold consensus with a modest price target upside around the current price, balancing the company's solid earnings growth and robust margins against the premium multiples.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 33.90 | 30.61 | 36.39 | 34.67 | 35.48 | 34.62 | 39.37 | 35.65 |
| Price to Sales | 35.66 | 35.22 | 42.38 | 40.19 | 42.68 | 45.43 | 46.44 | 43.04 |
| Price to Book | 9.69 | 10.04 | 11.49 | 9.97 | 10.12 | 10.92 | 10.31 | 9.28 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 82.06 | 79.28 | 95.37 | 93.95 | 95.04 | 96.11 | 107.23 | 95.59 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 38.41 | 37.48 | 44.86 | 42.67 | 45.63 | 48.32 | 49.35 | 46.24 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Texas Instruments (TXN) is currently experiencing a cautiously optimistic market sentiment driven by positive analyst upgrades, recent product launches, and favorable industry forecasts. Although the consensus among analysts leans towards a 'Hold,' there is a growing faction recommending 'Buy' based on strong expected free cash flow and margin improvements. Retail and institutional confidence has been bolstered by TXN's innovation in automotive and data center semiconductors and a supportive semiconductor market outlook.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Texas Instruments demonstrates strong financial health with robust liquidity and moderate leverage, supporting resilience amid semiconductors sector cyclicality. However, continued demand uncertainty in key industrial and automotive markets, along with geopolitical risks related to China, pose material strategic and operational challenges for near-term growth. Investor sentiment is cautious given the company's high valuation and potential pressure on margins due to pricing trends and elevated capital expenditures.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 4.35 | 4.45 | 5.81 | 5.26 | 4.12 | 4.31 | 4.62 | 4.91 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.83 | 2.90 | 3.88 | 3.37 | 2.88 | 3.14 | 3.49 | 3.76 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.41 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 4.35(Strong)
Quick Ratio: 2.83(Strong)
The company has strong liquidity with sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.95(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.45(Moderate)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about TXN
AI Answers: Common Questions About TXN
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Texas Instruments Incorporated
TXN is not a compelling buy at current levels ($214.73, P/E 37.67), as shares trade at a premium to historical and sector averages and near-term growth is muted. While the company is fundamentally strong, better entry points may emerge on pullbacks or after clearer signs of cyclical recovery.
There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own TXN, as technicals remain bullish and fundamentals are intact, but with valuation stretched and earnings momentum slowing, trimming or holding is prudent until a more attractive risk/reward emerges.
The biggest risks are cyclical demand weakness in key industrial and automotive markets, margin compression from pricing pressures, and geopolitical exposure to China, which accounts for a significant portion of revenue. Debt is moderate (debt-to-assets ~44.5%), but liquidity is strong, mitigating near-term financial risk.
Technical resistance is near $220-$225, with a 52-week high at $231.32; analyst targets cluster around current levels with some upside to $250, but most see limited near-term appreciation. Support is at $206.69 (50 SMA) and $190.39 (200 SMA).
TXN is overvalued by most metrics: P/E is 37.67 (well above its 10-year median and sector average), P/S and EV/EBITDA are also at historical highs, and the market is pricing in optimistic growth and margin resilience. This compresses the margin of safety for new buyers.
Fundamentally, TXN is very strong: gross margin averaged ~57% in 2025, net margin is 28.3%, ROE is ~22%, and the balance sheet is robust with a current ratio above 4 and strong free cash flow. However, recent quarters have seen margin and earnings compression due to cyclical headwinds.
Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend above all key moving averages (golden cross active), with RSI at 66 indicating healthy but not overbought momentum. Immediate resistance is at $220-$231, with support at $206.69; the trend remains positive but upside is limited by valuation.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (Q1 2026), which could signal demand recovery, new product launches in automotive and data center chips, and macro events such as government semiconductor support or easing of China trade tensions. Analyst upgrades and sector rotation into semiconductors could also drive sentiment.
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