UNH AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

5 left

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

$288.77-3.19 (-1.09%) today

Open
$290.05
High
$291.39
Low
$286.74
Volume
5.39M
Mkt Cap
$261.58B
52W High
$606.36
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated
AlphaCrew AI
MIXED
Overall
Summary

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is fundamentally robust and fairly valued for long-term investors, but faces acute near-term margin, regulatory, and technical headwinds. While the long-term outlook is constructive due to scale and secular growth, technicals and sentiment remain bearish, warranting caution for short- and medium-term traders. Investors should closely monitor cost trends, regulatory developments, and liquidity before committing new capital.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
WAIT
Short
HOLD
Medium
BUY
Long
Agent Signals
41
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) exhibits robust revenue growth and sustained leadership in the healthcare sector, but recent quarters show margin compression and notable earnings volatility. While the company remains fundamentally sound, financial headwinds and operational risks have increased, necessitating a balanced outlook for investors.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$30.0B$60.0B$90.0B$120.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)0%2%4%6%8%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$113.22B

12.31% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$10.00M

-99.82% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

0.01%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

12.31%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-99.82%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

14.41%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-99.82%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

0.98%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue113.2B113.2B111.6B109.6B100.8B100.8B98.9B99.8B
Revenue Growth YoY+12.31%+12.24%+12.91%+9.80%+6.76%+9.16%+6.41%+8.56%
Net Income10.0M2.3B3.4B6.3B5.5B6.1B4.2B-1.4B
Net Income Growth YoY-99.82%-61.22%-19.21%+546.56%+1.61%+3.66%-22.98%-125.11%
EPS$0.01$2.59$3.76$6.91$5.98$6.56$4.58-$1.53
EPS Growth YoY-99.82%-60.52%-17.90%+551.63%+1.36%+3.96%-22.24%-125.42%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

16.34%

TTM

Operating Margin

0.34%

TTM

Net Margin

0.01%

TTM

Return on Equity

12.70%

TTM

Return on Assets

6.75%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin16.34%18.24%17.93%21.70%21.14%22.84%22.31%23.05%
Operating Margin0.34%3.81%4.61%8.32%7.71%8.64%7.97%7.95%
Net Margin0.01%2.07%3.05%5.74%5.50%6.01%4.26%-1.41%
Return on Equity (ROE)0.01%2.45%3.60%6.62%5.98%6.41%4.72%-1.63%
Return on Assets (ROA)0.01%1.29%1.91%3.51%3.29%3.57%2.54%-0.86%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BEARISH

UNH is currently exhibiting a strong bearish trend, confirmed by price trading below key moving averages with an active death cross. Momentum indicators like RSI suggest neutral momentum, while ADX confirms the presence of a strong trend but in the downside direction. The stock resides in the declining phase with no immediate signs of reversal, indicating traders should exercise caution.

RSI
Hold
Neutral46

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Sell
Strong Downtrend

Price in downtrend

-8.4% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend32

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Sell
Below 50/200

50 below 200 - bearish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$288.77
50 SMA
$309.66
150 SMA
$320.55
200 SMA
$315.33
52W High
$606.36
52W Low
$234.60

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
46Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
MIXED

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) exhibits robust revenue growth and sustained leadership in the healthcare sector, but recent quarters show margin compression and notable earnings volatility. While the company remains fundamentally sound, financial headwinds and operational risks have increased, necessitating a balanced outlook for investors.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$2.11

Estimated

$2.10

Surprise

+$0.01

Surprise %

+0.48%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$113.22B

Estimated

$113.77B

Surprise

-$556.84M

Surprise %

-0.49%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$2.11$2.92$4.08$7.20$6.81$7.15$6.80$6.91
EPS (Estimated)$2.10$2.80$4.45$7.29$6.74$7.00$6.65$6.61
EPS Surprise+$0.01+$0.12-$0.37-$0.09+$0.07+$0.15+$0.15+$0.30
% Diff+0.5%+4.3%-8.3%-1.2%+1.0%+2.1%+2.3%+4.5%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$113.22B$113.16B$111.62B$109.58B$100.81B$99.18B$97.86B$98.79B
Revenue (Estimated)$113.77B$113.03B$111.52B$111.58B$101.6B$99.14B$98.79B$99.23B
Revenue Surprise-$556.84M+$133.11M+$92.71M-$2B-$788.12M+$37.64M-$927.55M-$448.92M
% Diff-0.5%+0.1%+0.1%-1.8%-0.8%+0.0%-0.9%-0.5%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) currently trades at a valuation that reflects a cautious market environment amid regulatory challenges and operational headwinds. While some recent earnings signals disruption and margin pressure, the stock remains supported by its dominant market position and robust cash flow generation, with analyst consensus moderately bullish but tempered by recent downward target adjustments.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

21.80

TTM

Price to Sales

0.58

TTM

Price to Book

2.79

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

13.69

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

0.71

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings7510.0033.3820.8419.1021.1522.2827.01-79.94
Price to Sales2.652.772.544.394.655.354.614.51
Price to Book3.193.273.005.065.065.715.105.20
Enterprise Value to EBITDA258.5268.7454.0152.2758.9260.1665.76269.14
Enterprise Value to Revenue3.133.243.004.855.165.815.104.97

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) sentiment is mixed with a moderate buy consensus from analysts but tempered by recent price target cuts and near-term execution risks. News highlights strong earnings beats and dividend increases, yet ongoing regulatory pressures, rising costs, and leadership challenges drag sentiment. Retail investors show divided views, reflecting concerns over the cyberattack fallout and revenue headwinds, though some see value opportunities based on UNH's scale and AI-driven efficiencies.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.9 / 5.0
Based on 29 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
2
Hold
6
Buy
15
Strong Buy
6

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

UnitedHealth Group is currently facing significant operational and regulatory challenges that have pressured its earnings and near-term financial performance. Despite these headwinds, the strong market position, projected earnings growth, and undervaluation by some analysts suggest potential for recovery and upside over the medium term. Liquidity is tight and debt levels are moderately high, which combined with regulatory scrutiny, elevates near-term financial risk.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.79

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.79

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.83

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.25

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.790.820.850.850.830.910.880.85
Quick Ratio0.790.820.850.850.830.910.880.85
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.830.840.840.860.830.830.840.85
Debt-to-Assets0.250.250.260.260.260.260.260.26

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.79(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.79(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.83(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.25(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about UNH

AI Answers: Common Questions About UNH

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UNH is trading at a P/E of 21.86 and well below its 52-week high ($606.36 vs. $289.21), with fair valuation metrics (EV/EBITDA, P/S) for a sector leader. However, ongoing margin compression, tight liquidity, and bearish technicals suggest it's not an optimal entry point for short-term traders, but may be attractive for long-term investors willing to ride out volatility.

If you are a short-term trader, the strong downtrend (death cross, price below all SMAs) and deteriorating sentiment argue for avoiding or reducing exposure. Long-term holders may consider maintaining positions unless liquidity or regulatory risks worsen, as fundamentals and valuation remain supportive over a multi-year horizon.

Key risks are regulatory investigations and flat Medicare reimbursements, margin compression from rising medical costs (net margin down to 2.7%), and liquidity constraints (current/quick ratio ~0.79, interest coverage only 0.39). High debt and operational headwinds could further pressure the stock if not managed.

Technical support is near $235 (52-week low), with resistance at $311-$315. Analyst median price targets suggest 24-35% upside from current levels, implying a target range of $360-$390 if operational and regulatory risks subside.

UNH is fairly valued with a P/E of 21.86, slightly below the sector average, and reasonable EV/EBITDA and P/S ratios. The stock trades below historical multiples due to current headwinds, offering potential upside if profitability recovers.

UNH remains fundamentally strong in scale and revenue growth (FY25 revenue up 11.8% YoY), but profitability is under pressure (gross margin down to 18.5%, net income down 16.3%). Balance sheet shows moderate leverage but tight liquidity, so improvement in margins and cash flow is needed.

Technical analysis is bearish: price is below all key moving averages, a death cross is active, RSI is neutral at 46.6, and no reversal patterns are present. Breakdown below $285 could trigger further downside, with support at $235.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (to assess margin recovery), regulatory developments (DOJ/antitrust outcomes), and any improvement in cost control or liquidity. Positive news on Medicare rates or resolution of cyberattack impacts could also drive upside.

Want a Personalized Answer?

Get AI-powered insights tailored to your risk tolerance and investment goals.

More AI Stock Analyses