VST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Vistra Corp. (VST)

$167.40+4.04 (+2.47%) today

Open
$161.88
High
$167.97
Low
$161.73
Volume
4.94M
Mkt Cap
$56.72B
52W High
$219.82
AI Verdict
Confidence 85%
VSTVistra Corp.
AlphaCrew AI
WAIT
Overall
Summary

Vistra Corp. (VST) offers long-term structural growth potential in the evolving energy sector, but currently faces margin compression, earnings volatility, and a stretched valuation. Technicals show indecision and risk remains elevated due to liquidity constraints and operational uncertainties. Investors should wait for clearer signs of margin recovery, technical breakout, or improved liquidity before initiating or adding to positions.

By Timeframe
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Short
HOLD
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
122
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Vistra Corp. (VST) demonstrates overall solid fundamentals, with strong cash generation and a competitive position in the power generation sector. However, recent earnings volatility, pressured margins, and a high valuation temper the otherwise positive long-term thesis. Structural tailwinds in energy transition and market consolidation support ongoing growth, but near-term execution and sector risk factors should not be overlooked.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025-$2.5B$0$2.5B$5.0B$7.5BRevenue & Net Income ($)-6%0%6%12%18%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$2.34B

-68.24% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$233.00M

-47.17% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

9.97%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

-68.24%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-47.17%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

-68.25%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-52.59%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

-683.41%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue2.3B5.0B4.3B5.2B7.4B5.5B3.7B2.8B
Revenue Growth YoY-68.24%-10.17%+15.24%+85.14%+117.04%+6.34%+15.61%-25.64%
Net Income233.0M652.0M327.0M-268.0M441.0M1.9B365.0M-35.0M
Net Income Growth YoY-47.17%-65.47%-10.41%-665.71%+339.67%+276.10%-23.32%-105.01%
EPS$0.55$1.78$0.83-$0.93$1.16$5.36$0.92-$0.24
EPS Growth YoY-52.59%-66.79%-9.78%-287.50%+283.63%+322.05%-22.03%-113.95%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

17.52%

TTM

Operating Margin

7.87%

TTM

Net Margin

5.56%

TTM

Return on Equity

18.91%

TTM

Return on Assets

-68.36%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin-55.65%29.89%21.98%29.78%57.35%42.88%26.22%4.69%
Operating Margin-74.76%20.96%12.12%22.57%51.77%35.91%16.73%-6.70%
Net Margin9.97%13.12%7.69%-5.18%5.99%34.12%9.90%-1.25%
Return on Equity (ROE)4.56%12.51%6.78%-5.55%7.92%34.70%6.53%-0.62%
Return on Assets (ROA)-16.87%1.97%0.99%-0.81%1.35%5.74%1.08%-0.11%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis

VST is currently in a consolidation phase after a recent downtrend, trading below major moving averages with a death cross signaling bearish momentum. The RSI is neutral, and the ADX indicates a weak trend, suggesting potential range-bound movement near current levels. Price action shows the stock is basing without a clear direction, awaiting a breakout for a new trend to develop.

RSI
Hold
Neutral51

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Hold
Mixed

Mixed signals

-7.9% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend15

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Hold
Death Cross

Watching for cross

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$167.40
50 SMA
$163.41
150 SMA
$182.18
200 SMA
$181.85
52W High
$219.82
52W Low
$90.51

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
51Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Vistra Corp. (VST) demonstrates overall solid fundamentals, with strong cash generation and a competitive position in the power generation sector. However, recent earnings volatility, pressured margins, and a high valuation temper the otherwise positive long-term thesis. Structural tailwinds in energy transition and market consolidation support ongoing growth, but near-term execution and sector risk factors should not be overlooked.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Miss

Actual

$0.54

Estimated

$2.31

Surprise

$-1.77

Surprise %

-76.49%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$4.58B

Estimated

$5.79B

Surprise

-$1.21B

Surprise %

-20.82%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.54$5.26$1.75$0.81$-0.93$1.14$5.40$0.90
EPS (Estimated)$2.31$2.60$2.08$0.88$0.54$0.85$1.20$1.38
EPS Surprise-$1.77+$2.66-$0.33-$0.06-$1.47+$0.29+$4.20-$0.48
% Diff-76.5%+102.3%-15.9%-7.4%-273.5%+34.1%+350.0%-34.8%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$4.58B$4.58B$4.97B$4.25B$5.17B$7.36B$5.53B$3.69B
Revenue (Estimated)$5.79B$5.79B$6.11B$4.74B$4.55B$3.91B$5.01B$3.96B
Revenue Surprise-$1.21B-$1.21B-$1.14B-$494.46M+$622.8M+$3.45B+$521.6M-$276.37M
% Diff-20.8%-20.8%-18.7%-10.4%+13.7%+88.1%+10.4%-7.0%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Vistra Corp (VST) currently trades at elevated valuation multiples compared to its historical norms and sector peers, reflecting a market premium driven by growth expectations and strategic acquisitions. While revenue growth is moderate and earnings have recently contracted, the company is expanding its natural gas capacity and locked in long-term power purchase agreements that support future cash flow visibility. Analyst consensus is bullish with a significant upside indicated by price targets well above the current share price.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

60.26

TTM

Price to Sales

3.39

TTM

Price to Book

11.13

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

14.94

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

4.37

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings58.8225.5350.29-37.2326.555.3820.76-178.30
Price to Sales23.4513.3915.487.726.367.358.228.94
Price to Book10.7312.7813.648.278.417.475.424.41
Enterprise Value to EBITDA54.5644.7174.5795.2140.3416.5730.4052.22
Enterprise Value to Revenue30.4316.7919.6211.038.5610.0412.3714.43

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

Vistra Corp. (VST) currently exhibits a broadly positive sentiment landscape underpinned by strong analyst buy recommendations and strategic operational moves in the utility sector. Despite a recent earnings miss and stock price weakness from recent highs, the consensus outlook remains constructive with ongoing acquisitions, partnership deals, and solid adjusted EBITDA guidance fueling forward-looking optimism.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 21 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
0
Buy
16
Strong Buy
4

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
HIGH

Vistra Corp. exhibits significant liquidity challenges with very low current and quick ratios, indicating potential short-term financial stress. However, its low debt-to-equity ratio suggests a conservative capital structure, though negative interest coverage points to difficulties in servicing debt. The company operates in a volatile regulatory and operational environment, balancing hedging strategies against fluctuating energy markets, which introduces moderate to high risks from an investor perspective.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.30

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.69

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

3.99

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

5.28

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.300.990.900.860.961.110.981.07
Quick Ratio0.690.880.800.770.850.990.880.96
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity3.993.363.743.673.122.913.032.90
Debt-to-Assets5.280.460.470.460.460.420.430.43

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.30(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.69(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 3.99(High)

Debt-to-Assets: 5.28(High)

The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions about VST

AI Answers: Common Questions About VST

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Vistra Corp.

VST is not a good buy right now given its high P/E ratio of 58.38, recent margin and earnings declines, and technical weakness. The stock trades at a premium to sector peers and its own history, with current prices reflecting optimistic growth assumptions that have yet to be realized.

If you already own VST, there is no urgent need to sell unless you have a low risk tolerance, as the long-term thesis remains intact. However, with technicals weak and liquidity risks rising, consider trimming or hedging if you are overweight or concerned about further downside.

The biggest risks are critically low liquidity (current and quick ratios below 0.3), negative interest coverage indicating difficulty servicing debt, and margin/earnings volatility (EPS down 69% YoY, gross margin at 21.7%). Operational and regulatory risks, especially in Texas, further elevate uncertainty.

Analyst consensus target is $236, suggesting upside from current $161.70, but technical resistance is at $163-182 and support at $153 and $90.51. Without a technical breakout or margin recovery, the stock may remain range-bound below these targets.

VST is overvalued with a P/E of 58.38 and high EV/EBITDA and price-to-sales ratios versus sector averages. The current valuation assumes strong future growth and margin recovery, which recent results do not support.

Fundamentally, VST has strong scale and cash generation potential, but recent performance is weak: revenue declined 12.4% YoY, EPS fell 69.1%, and margins are compressed. The balance sheet is stressed by low liquidity and negative interest coverage.

Technically, VST is consolidating below key moving averages with a death cross and neutral RSI (45.8), indicating indecision and no clear momentum. Support is at $153, resistance at $163-182, and a breakout is needed for a bullish signal.

Key catalysts include successful integration of recent acquisitions, realization of projected EBITDA growth, upcoming earnings reports, and a technical breakout above $163-182. Watch for improvements in liquidity and margin trends as triggers for renewed upside.

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