VST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Vistra Corp. (VST)
Vistra Corp. (VST) offers long-term structural growth potential in the evolving energy sector, but currently faces margin compression, earnings volatility, and a stretched valuation. Technicals show indecision and risk remains elevated due to liquidity constraints and operational uncertainties. Investors should wait for clearer signs of margin recovery, technical breakout, or improved liquidity before initiating or adding to positions.
Fundamentals
Vistra Corp. (VST) demonstrates overall solid fundamentals, with strong cash generation and a competitive position in the power generation sector. However, recent earnings volatility, pressured margins, and a high valuation temper the otherwise positive long-term thesis. Structural tailwinds in energy transition and market consolidation support ongoing growth, but near-term execution and sector risk factors should not be overlooked.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
-68.24% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-47.17% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3B | 5.0B | 4.3B | 5.2B | 7.4B | 5.5B | 3.7B | 2.8B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -68.24% | -10.17% | +15.24% | +85.14% | +117.04% | +6.34% | +15.61% | -25.64% |
| Net Income | 233.0M | 652.0M | 327.0M | -268.0M | 441.0M | 1.9B | 365.0M | -35.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -47.17% | -65.47% | -10.41% | -665.71% | +339.67% | +276.10% | -23.32% | -105.01% |
| EPS | $0.55 | $1.78 | $0.83 | -$0.93 | $1.16 | $5.36 | $0.92 | -$0.24 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -52.59% | -66.79% | -9.78% | -287.50% | +283.63% | +322.05% | -22.03% | -113.95% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | -55.65% | 29.89% | 21.98% | 29.78% | 57.35% | 42.88% | 26.22% | 4.69% |
| Operating Margin | -74.76% | 20.96% | 12.12% | 22.57% | 51.77% | 35.91% | 16.73% | -6.70% |
| Net Margin | 9.97% | 13.12% | 7.69% | -5.18% | 5.99% | 34.12% | 9.90% | -1.25% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 4.56% | 12.51% | 6.78% | -5.55% | 7.92% | 34.70% | 6.53% | -0.62% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | -16.87% | 1.97% | 0.99% | -0.81% | 1.35% | 5.74% | 1.08% | -0.11% |
Technical Analysis
VST is currently in a consolidation phase after a recent downtrend, trading below major moving averages with a death cross signaling bearish momentum. The RSI is neutral, and the ADX indicates a weak trend, suggesting potential range-bound movement near current levels. Price action shows the stock is basing without a clear direction, awaiting a breakout for a new trend to develop.
No extreme reading
Mixed signals
Range-bound market
Watching for cross
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Vistra Corp. (VST) demonstrates overall solid fundamentals, with strong cash generation and a competitive position in the power generation sector. However, recent earnings volatility, pressured margins, and a high valuation temper the otherwise positive long-term thesis. Structural tailwinds in energy transition and market consolidation support ongoing growth, but near-term execution and sector risk factors should not be overlooked.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.54
Estimated
$2.31
Surprise
$-1.77
Surprise %
-76.49%
Revenue
Actual
$4.58B
Estimated
$5.79B
Surprise
-$1.21B
Surprise %
-20.82%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.54 | $5.26 | $1.75 | $0.81 | $-0.93 | $1.14 | $5.40 | $0.90 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $2.31 | $2.60 | $2.08 | $0.88 | $0.54 | $0.85 | $1.20 | $1.38 |
| EPS Surprise | -$1.77 | +$2.66 | -$0.33 | -$0.06 | -$1.47 | +$0.29 | +$4.20 | -$0.48 |
| % Diff | -76.5% | +102.3% | -15.9% | -7.4% | -273.5% | +34.1% | +350.0% | -34.8% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $4.58B | $4.58B | $4.97B | $4.25B | $5.17B | $7.36B | $5.53B | $3.69B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $5.79B | $5.79B | $6.11B | $4.74B | $4.55B | $3.91B | $5.01B | $3.96B |
| Revenue Surprise | -$1.21B | -$1.21B | -$1.14B | -$494.46M | +$622.8M | +$3.45B | +$521.6M | -$276.37M |
| % Diff | -20.8% | -20.8% | -18.7% | -10.4% | +13.7% | +88.1% | +10.4% | -7.0% |
Valuation
Vistra Corp (VST) currently trades at elevated valuation multiples compared to its historical norms and sector peers, reflecting a market premium driven by growth expectations and strategic acquisitions. While revenue growth is moderate and earnings have recently contracted, the company is expanding its natural gas capacity and locked in long-term power purchase agreements that support future cash flow visibility. Analyst consensus is bullish with a significant upside indicated by price targets well above the current share price.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 58.82 | 25.53 | 50.29 | -37.23 | 26.55 | 5.38 | 20.76 | -178.30 |
| Price to Sales | 23.45 | 13.39 | 15.48 | 7.72 | 6.36 | 7.35 | 8.22 | 8.94 |
| Price to Book | 10.73 | 12.78 | 13.64 | 8.27 | 8.41 | 7.47 | 5.42 | 4.41 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 54.56 | 44.71 | 74.57 | 95.21 | 40.34 | 16.57 | 30.40 | 52.22 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 30.43 | 16.79 | 19.62 | 11.03 | 8.56 | 10.04 | 12.37 | 14.43 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Vistra Corp. (VST) currently exhibits a broadly positive sentiment landscape underpinned by strong analyst buy recommendations and strategic operational moves in the utility sector. Despite a recent earnings miss and stock price weakness from recent highs, the consensus outlook remains constructive with ongoing acquisitions, partnership deals, and solid adjusted EBITDA guidance fueling forward-looking optimism.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Vistra Corp. exhibits significant liquidity challenges with very low current and quick ratios, indicating potential short-term financial stress. However, its low debt-to-equity ratio suggests a conservative capital structure, though negative interest coverage points to difficulties in servicing debt. The company operates in a volatile regulatory and operational environment, balancing hedging strategies against fluctuating energy markets, which introduces moderate to high risks from an investor perspective.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.30 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 1.11 | 0.98 | 1.07 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.69 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 3.99 | 3.36 | 3.74 | 3.67 | 3.12 | 2.91 | 3.03 | 2.90 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 5.28 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.30(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.69(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 3.99(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 5.28(High)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about VST
AI Answers: Common Questions About VST
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Vistra Corp.
VST is not a good buy right now given its high P/E ratio of 58.38, recent margin and earnings declines, and technical weakness. The stock trades at a premium to sector peers and its own history, with current prices reflecting optimistic growth assumptions that have yet to be realized.
If you already own VST, there is no urgent need to sell unless you have a low risk tolerance, as the long-term thesis remains intact. However, with technicals weak and liquidity risks rising, consider trimming or hedging if you are overweight or concerned about further downside.
The biggest risks are critically low liquidity (current and quick ratios below 0.3), negative interest coverage indicating difficulty servicing debt, and margin/earnings volatility (EPS down 69% YoY, gross margin at 21.7%). Operational and regulatory risks, especially in Texas, further elevate uncertainty.
Analyst consensus target is $236, suggesting upside from current $161.70, but technical resistance is at $163-182 and support at $153 and $90.51. Without a technical breakout or margin recovery, the stock may remain range-bound below these targets.
VST is overvalued with a P/E of 58.38 and high EV/EBITDA and price-to-sales ratios versus sector averages. The current valuation assumes strong future growth and margin recovery, which recent results do not support.
Fundamentally, VST has strong scale and cash generation potential, but recent performance is weak: revenue declined 12.4% YoY, EPS fell 69.1%, and margins are compressed. The balance sheet is stressed by low liquidity and negative interest coverage.
Technically, VST is consolidating below key moving averages with a death cross and neutral RSI (45.8), indicating indecision and no clear momentum. Support is at $153, resistance at $163-182, and a breakout is needed for a bullish signal.
Key catalysts include successful integration of recent acquisitions, realization of projected EBITDA growth, upcoming earnings reports, and a technical breakout above $163-182. Watch for improvements in liquidity and margin trends as triggers for renewed upside.
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