VST AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Vistra Corp. (VST)
Vistra Corp. (VST) demonstrates strong long-term fundamentals and growth prospects, but current technicals are bearish and sentiment is mixed due to recent price declines and short-term liquidity concerns. While the medium- and long-term outlooks remain positive, near-term caution is warranted until technical signals stabilize.
Fundamentals
Vistra Corp. (VST) demonstrated a return to robust profitability in the most recent quarter, following a choppy year with significant one-off impacts and seasonal volatility. The company's most recent earnings beat estimates, underlining improving operational performance and margin recovery. Despite volatility, Vistra remains fundamentally strong, with favorable long-term industry trends in the transition to clean energy.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
-10.00% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Income
483.96% YoY
Q1 2026
Net Margin
Q1 2026
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7B | 2.3B | 5.0B | 4.3B | 5.2B | 7.4B | 5.5B | 3.7B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | -10.00% | -68.24% | -10.17% | +15.24% | +85.14% | +117.04% | +6.34% | +15.61% |
| Net Income | 1.0B | 233.0M | 652.0M | 327.0M | -268.0M | 441.0M | 1.9B | 365.0M |
| Net Income Growth YoY | +483.96% | -47.17% | -65.47% | -10.41% | -665.71% | +339.67% | +276.10% | -23.32% |
| EPS | $2.90 | $0.55 | $1.78 | $0.83 | -$0.93 | $1.16 | $5.36 | $0.92 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +411.83% | -52.59% | -66.79% | -9.78% | -287.50% | +283.63% | +322.05% | -22.03% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 20.26% | -55.65% | 29.89% | 21.98% | 29.78% | 57.35% | 42.88% | 26.22% |
| Operating Margin | 11.32% | -74.76% | 20.96% | 12.12% | 22.57% | 51.77% | 35.91% | 16.73% |
| Net Margin | 22.11% | 9.97% | 13.12% | 7.69% | -5.18% | 5.99% | 34.12% | 9.90% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 18.38% | 4.56% | 12.51% | 6.78% | -5.55% | 7.92% | 34.70% | 6.53% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 2.85% | 0.64% | 1.97% | 0.99% | -0.81% | 1.35% | 5.74% | 1.08% |
Technical Analysis
VST is exhibiting a strong downtrend, currently trading well below its 50, 150, and 200-day SMAs. The technical indicators suggest weakening momentum with RSI in a neutral zone and ADX indicating a weak trend, consistent with a declining phase and a death cross formation. Recent price action and moving averages point to bearish control, cautioning against new long positions until signs of a recovery emerge.
No extreme reading
Price in downtrend
Range-bound market
50 below 200 - bearish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Vistra Corp. (VST) demonstrated a return to robust profitability in the most recent quarter, following a choppy year with significant one-off impacts and seasonal volatility. The company's most recent earnings beat estimates, underlining improving operational performance and margin recovery. Despite volatility, Vistra remains fundamentally strong, with favorable long-term industry trends in the transition to clean energy.
Latest Earnings
Q1 2026 Earnings (Mar 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$2.87
Estimated
$1.32
Surprise
+$1.55
Surprise %
+117.42%
Revenue
Actual
$5.64B
Estimated
$5.22B
Surprise
+$424.03M
Surprise %
+8.13%
Historical Earnings
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $2.87 | $0.54 | $5.26 | $1.75 | $0.81 | $-0.93 | $1.14 | $5.40 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $1.32 | $2.31 | $2.60 | $2.08 | $0.88 | $0.54 | $0.85 | $1.20 |
| EPS Surprise | +$1.55 | -$1.77 | +$2.66 | -$0.33 | -$0.06 | -$1.47 | +$0.29 | +$4.20 |
| % Diff | +117.4% | -76.5% | +102.3% | -15.9% | -7.4% | -273.5% | +34.1% | +350.0% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $5.64B | $4.58B | $4.58B | $4.97B | $4.25B | $5.17B | $7.36B | $5.53B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $5.22B | $5.79B | $5.79B | $6.11B | $4.74B | $4.55B | $3.91B | $5.01B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$424.03M | -$1.21B | -$1.21B | -$1.14B | -$494.46M | +$622.8M | +$3.45B | +$521.6M |
| % Diff | +8.1% | -20.8% | -20.8% | -18.7% | -10.4% | +13.7% | +88.1% | +10.4% |
Valuation
Vistra Corp. (VST) currently trades at valuations that suggest it commands a premium relative to its sector peers in the independent power producers industry, reflecting its sizable market position and growth potential. Analyst consensus strongly favors the stock with substantial upside price targets, supported by improving earnings performance, strategic acquisitions, and a positive industry outlook.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 12.41 | 58.82 | 25.53 | 50.29 | -37.23 | 26.55 | 5.38 | 20.76 |
| Price to Sales | 10.98 | 23.45 | 13.39 | 15.48 | 7.72 | 6.36 | 7.35 | 8.22 |
| Price to Book | 9.13 | 10.73 | 12.78 | 13.64 | 8.27 | 8.41 | 7.47 | 5.42 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 56.49 | 57.05 | 44.71 | 74.57 | 95.21 | 40.34 | 16.57 | 30.40 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 15.11 | 31.82 | 16.79 | 19.62 | 11.03 | 8.56 | 10.04 | 12.37 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Vistra (VST) currently exhibits a generally positive market sentiment driven by strong Q1 2026 earnings, successful acquisition moves, and upgraded investment-grade credit ratings. Despite a recent price dip, the analyst consensus remains overwhelmingly bullish with significant upside price targets, supported by long-term contracts that capitalize on growing power demand from AI and data center sectors. However, mixed signals from some bearish options activity and insider selling create nuanced investor psychology.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Vistra Corp (VST) presents a balanced financial risk profile with strong earnings growth and strategic acquisitions enhancing its market position. Despite very low current liquidity ratios raising near-term cash flow concerns, its moderate leverage and improved credit ratings support longer-term financial stability in the capital-intensive utilities sector.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q1 2026
| Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 1.11 | 0.98 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.79 | 0.69 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 3.56 | 3.99 | 3.36 | 3.74 | 3.67 | 3.12 | 2.91 | 3.03 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.43 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.90(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.79(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 3.56(High)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.48(Moderate)
The company has relatively high debt levels, which may increase financial risk in economic downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions about VST
AI Answers: Common Questions About VST
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Vistra Corp.
VST is not an ideal buy at this moment for short-term traders due to its strong downtrend and technical weakness, but long-term investors may find value given the stock's P/E of 24.62, strong Q1 2026 recovery, and analyst targets implying significant upside. Waiting for technical stabilization or a retest of support near $134 is prudent for new entries.
If you are a short-term trader, consider reducing exposure or waiting for a technical reversal as the stock is in a confirmed downtrend. Long-term holders can maintain positions, as the fundamental outlook remains robust and recent earnings have rebounded sharply.
The biggest risks are short-term liquidity stress (current ratio ~0.12), exposure to commodity price swings and regulatory changes, and potential integration challenges from recent acquisitions. While long-term solvency has improved, near-term cash flow management is a concern.
Analyst consensus targets $234 (52% upside), while technical resistance lies at $158, $169, and $177. Downside support is at $133.73; a break below this could signal further declines, while a reversal above $158 would be bullish.
VST is fairly valued relative to its sector, trading at a P/E of 24.62 and elevated EV/EBITDA and P/S multiples, justified by strong margins, recent earnings growth, and strategic positioning. The premium reflects market confidence in future profitability.
Fundamentals are strong, with Q1 2026 gross margin at 34%, net margin at 17%, and a sharp rebound in EPS and revenue. The company benefits from a diversified asset base, leading market share in Texas, and improving credit metrics, though earnings volatility remains inherent.
Technical analysis is bearish: VST is below all major SMAs, a death cross is present, RSI is neutral (~40), and volume confirms selling pressure. Key support is at $133.73; avoid new longs until a base or reversal pattern emerges.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, further integration of recent acquisitions (Cogentrix, Energy Harbor), new long-term contracts with AI/data center clients, and potential margin expansion from operational improvements.
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