WMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Walmart Inc. (WMT)

$130.35+2.76 (+2.16%) today

Open
$127.97
High
$131.12
Low
$127.72
Volume
17.80M
Mkt Cap
$1.04T
52W High
$134.69
AI Verdict
Confidence 90%
WMTWalmart Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Walmart is a fundamentally robust, market-leading retailer with resilient cash flows, steady growth, and strong technical momentum, but its premium valuation and moderate near-term risks temper immediate upside. While the long-term outlook remains positive due to e-commerce expansion and operational excellence, current price levels reflect much of this optimism. Investors should consider holding or accumulating on weakness, as the risk/reward is balanced at present levels.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
BUY
Short
HOLD
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
23
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Walmart continues to demonstrate robust financial health, underpinned by steady revenue growth, resilient profitability, and reliable earnings performance. The company’s scale and operational efficiency support its dominant position in the retail sector, and its consistent ability to slightly exceed earnings estimates reflects strong management execution. While the valuation appears stretched based on its high P/E ratio, the business remains defensive and cash-generative, providing stability during various economic cycles.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$50.0B$100.0B$150.0B$200.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)2%2.5%3%3.5%4%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$190.66B

5.60% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$4.24B

-19.36% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

2.22%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

5.60%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-19.36%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

6.36%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-18.46%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

9.48%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue190.7B179.5B177.4B165.6B180.6B169.6B169.3B161.5B
Revenue Growth YoY+5.60%+5.84%+4.76%+2.54%+4.13%+5.46%+4.77%+6.05%
Net Income4.2B6.1B7.0B4.5B5.3B4.6B4.5B5.1B
Net Income Growth YoY-19.36%+34.21%+56.10%-12.09%-4.37%+910.38%-42.96%+205.08%
EPS$0.53$0.77$0.88$0.56$0.65$0.57$0.56$0.63
EPS Growth YoY-18.46%+35.09%+57.14%-11.11%-4.41%+916.04%-42.86%+200.00%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

24.67%

TTM

Operating Margin

4.57%

TTM

Net Margin

2.22%

TTM

Return on Equity

23.69%

TTM

Return on Assets

8.55%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin24.67%24.95%25.16%24.94%24.58%24.91%25.11%24.81%
Operating Margin4.57%3.73%4.11%4.31%4.35%3.96%4.69%4.24%
Net Margin2.22%3.42%3.96%2.71%2.91%2.70%2.66%3.16%
Return on Equity (ROE)4.25%6.39%7.80%5.35%5.77%5.19%5.33%6.28%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.66%2.36%2.91%1.92%2.26%1.94%1.99%2.26%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

WMT is currently in a strong uptrend supported by a golden cross, with price above key moving averages and positioned near its 52-week high. Momentum is neutral but stable, indicating no extreme overbought conditions. The stock shows technical strength in an advancing phase ideal for accumulation.

RSI
Hold
Neutral55

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+14.8% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend12

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$130.35
50 SMA
$126.30
150 SMA
$117.79
200 SMA
$113.57
52W High
$134.69
52W Low
$91.89

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
55Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Walmart continues to demonstrate robust financial health, underpinned by steady revenue growth, resilient profitability, and reliable earnings performance. The company’s scale and operational efficiency support its dominant position in the retail sector, and its consistent ability to slightly exceed earnings estimates reflects strong management execution. While the valuation appears stretched based on its high P/E ratio, the business remains defensive and cash-generative, providing stability during various economic cycles.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.74

Estimated

$0.73

Surprise

+$0.01

Surprise %

+1.79%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$190.66B

Estimated

$190.49B

Surprise

+$164.7M

Surprise %

+0.09%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.74$0.62$0.68$0.61$0.66$0.58$0.67$0.60
EPS (Estimated)$0.73$0.60$0.73$0.57$0.65$0.53$0.65$0.52
EPS Surprise+$0.01+$0.02-$0.05+$0.04+$0.01+$0.05+$0.02+$0.08
% Diff+1.8%+3.2%-7.2%+6.1%+2.2%+9.4%+3.1%+15.4%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$190.66B$179.5B$177.4B$165.61B$180.55B$169.59B$169.34B$161.51B
Revenue (Estimated)$190.49B$177.44B$175.94B$165.62B$180.07B$167.69B$168.56B$159.57B
Revenue Surprise+$164.7M+$2.05B+$1.47B-$10.79M+$479.65M+$1.9B+$770.48M+$1.94B
% Diff+0.1%+1.2%+0.8%-0.0%+0.3%+1.1%+0.5%+1.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Walmart currently trades at premium valuation multiples reflecting strong market leadership and strategic growth in higher-margin areas such as e-commerce and advertising. Despite modest revenue growth and some recent earnings softness, analysts largely maintain a positive outlook with a consensus Buy rating and price targets suggesting moderate upside potential.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

47.46

TTM

Price to Sales

1.46

TTM

Price to Book

10.43

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

23.58

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.54

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings56.0332.8327.8143.4137.5035.9830.6723.41
Price to Sales4.984.494.414.704.373.883.262.96
Price to Book9.538.408.679.308.667.486.545.88
Enterprise Value to EBITDA96.5569.3161.6883.7075.9271.2159.8549.00
Enterprise Value to Revenue5.284.824.725.054.654.193.573.30

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
POSITIVE

Walmart's market sentiment is predominantly positive, supported by strong analyst buy ratings and growing confidence in its digital growth and omnichannel strategy. News flow highlights steady financial performance, margin expansion, and AI integration as key growth drivers, while social media buzz reflects cautious optimism amid valuation concerns. Overall, the sentiment landscape points to confidence in Walmart's resilient business model with some caution on valuation levels.

Analyst Recommendations

As of May 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 43 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
3
Buy
30
Strong Buy
9

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Walmart presents a moderate financial risk profile characterized by strong operational scale but notable short-term liquidity constraints and moderate leverage. The business faces key execution risks in cost management and e-commerce competition amid an increasingly complex regulatory environment, balanced against its market leadership and robust cash flow generation. From an investor perspective, Walmart offers a stable long-term outlook but with moderate near-term pressures from margin and operational challenges.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.79

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.24

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.67

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.24

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.790.800.790.780.820.850.800.80
Quick Ratio0.240.240.230.220.240.230.220.23
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.670.710.720.800.660.700.730.79
Debt-to-Assets0.240.240.240.260.230.230.240.25

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.79(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.24(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.67(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.24(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about WMT

AI Answers: Common Questions About WMT

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Walmart Inc.

Walmart is not a bargain at current levels, trading at a P/E of 47.78 and near its 52-week high ($134.69), but its strong fundamentals and bullish technicals support short-term upside. For long-term investors, consider accumulating on pullbacks below the 50 SMA ($126.24) for better risk/reward.

There is no urgent reason to sell unless you are highly sensitive to valuation risk or expect near-term macro headwinds; fundamentals remain strong and technicals are bullish, but upside is limited at current prices. Consider trimming if overweight or if price exceeds $134.69 without further earnings growth.

Biggest risks include a high valuation (P/E 47.78, EV/EBITDA well above historical averages), margin compression from cost inflation, and moderate liquidity (current ratio below 1). Regulatory and competitive pressures, especially in e-commerce, also pose ongoing risks.

Technical resistance is at $134.69, with potential extension to $138–$140 if a breakout occurs. Analyst targets (e.g., TD Cowen at $150) suggest moderate upside, but downside support is at $126 (50 SMA) and $113 (200 SMA).

Walmart is fairly valued but at a premium, with P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples well above sector and historical norms, reflecting high investor expectations for digital and margin growth. The current price relies on continued execution and growth in higher-margin segments.

Walmart's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 4.7% YoY to $713.16B, net income rose 12.6% to $21.89B, and margins are stable (gross ~24.9%, net ~3.1%). Cash flow is robust and balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt/equity ~0.67).

Technicals are bullish: price is above key moving averages, a golden cross is active, RSI is neutral at 56.8, and the stock is near its 52-week high. A breakout above $134.69 could trigger further upside, while downside is supported at $126 and $113.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, continued e-commerce and AI-driven growth, analyst price target upgrades, and dividend increases. Watch for a breakout above $134.69 and further margin expansion from digital and advertising segments.

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