WMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Walmart (WMT) offers a compelling investment case driven by robust fundamentals, consistent growth, and strong technical momentum, though its elevated valuation and moderate liquidity risks warrant attention. The stock is well-positioned for continued outperformance, especially for long-term investors seeking defensive growth, while short- and medium-term traders may benefit from bullish technical setups and positive sentiment. Overall, the risk/reward profile is favorable, with manageable downside risks offset by Walmart's scale, execution, and e-commerce expansion.
Fundamentals
Walmart remains a global retail powerhouse, demonstrating resilience and steady growth despite competitive pressures and broader economic headwinds. The company continues to execute successfully both in core retail and digital channels, achieving consistent earnings and healthy revenue expansion.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
5.60% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-19.36% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 190.7B | 179.5B | 177.4B | 165.6B | 180.6B | 169.6B | 169.3B | 161.5B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +5.60% | +5.84% | +4.76% | +2.54% | +4.13% | +5.46% | +4.77% | +6.05% |
| Net Income | 4.2B | 6.1B | 7.0B | 4.5B | 5.3B | 4.6B | 4.5B | 5.1B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -19.36% | +34.21% | +56.10% | -12.09% | -4.37% | +910.38% | -42.96% | +205.08% |
| EPS | $0.53 | $0.77 | $0.88 | $0.56 | $0.65 | $0.57 | $0.56 | $0.63 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -18.46% | +35.09% | +57.14% | -11.11% | -4.41% | +916.04% | -42.86% | +200.00% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 24.67% | 24.95% | 25.16% | 24.94% | 24.58% | 24.91% | 25.11% | 24.81% |
| Operating Margin | 4.57% | 3.73% | 4.11% | 4.31% | 4.35% | 3.96% | 4.69% | 4.24% |
| Net Margin | 2.22% | 3.42% | 3.96% | 2.71% | 2.91% | 2.70% | 2.66% | 3.16% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 4.25% | 6.39% | 7.80% | 5.35% | 5.77% | 5.19% | 5.33% | 6.28% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 1.66% | 2.36% | 2.91% | 1.92% | 2.26% | 1.94% | 1.99% | 2.26% |
Technical Analysis
WMT is currently in a strong bullish uptrend with price above key moving averages and a confirmed golden cross. The stock is trading near its 52-week high, supported by moderate trend strength and neutral momentum indicators. This technical setup suggests a continuation of the advancing phase with institutional accumulation.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Trend developing
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Walmart remains a global retail powerhouse, demonstrating resilience and steady growth despite competitive pressures and broader economic headwinds. The company continues to execute successfully both in core retail and digital channels, achieving consistent earnings and healthy revenue expansion.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.74
Estimated
$0.73
Surprise
+$0.01
Surprise %
+1.79%
Revenue
Actual
$190.66B
Estimated
$190.49B
Surprise
+$164.67M
Surprise %
+0.09%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.74 | $0.62 | $0.68 | $0.61 | $0.66 | $0.58 | $0.67 | $0.60 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.73 | $0.60 | $0.73 | $0.57 | $0.65 | $0.53 | $0.65 | $0.52 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.01 | +$0.02 | -$0.05 | +$0.04 | +$0.01 | +$0.05 | +$0.02 | +$0.08 |
| % Diff | +1.8% | +3.2% | -7.2% | +6.1% | +2.2% | +9.4% | +3.1% | +15.4% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $190.66B | $179.5B | $177.4B | $165.61B | $180.55B | $169.59B | $169.34B | $161.51B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $190.49B | $177.44B | $175.94B | $165.62B | $180.07B | $167.69B | $168.56B | $159.57B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$164.67M | +$2.05B | +$1.47B | -$10.79M | +$479.65M | +$1.9B | +$770.48M | +$1.94B |
| % Diff | +0.1% | +1.2% | +0.8% | -0.0% | +0.3% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +1.2% |
Valuation
Walmart's stock currently trades at a premium relative to its peers and historical averages, supported by solid revenue growth and robust e-commerce performance. While the stock exhibits defensive qualities and maintains strong profitability metrics, its elevated valuation multiples suggest cautious investor sentiment despite positive analyst ratings and technical indicators pointing toward a bullish trend.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 56.03 | 32.83 | 27.81 | 43.41 | 37.50 | 35.98 | 30.67 | 23.41 |
| Price to Sales | 4.98 | 4.49 | 4.41 | 4.70 | 4.37 | 3.88 | 3.26 | 2.96 |
| Price to Book | 9.53 | 8.40 | 8.67 | 9.30 | 8.66 | 7.48 | 6.54 | 5.88 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 96.55 | 69.31 | 61.68 | 83.70 | 75.92 | 71.21 | 59.85 | 49.00 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 5.28 | 4.82 | 4.72 | 5.05 | 4.65 | 4.19 | 3.57 | 3.30 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Walmart (WMT) demonstrates strong positive market sentiment supported by solid Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings that beat expectations, robust sales growth both in-store and online, and consistent dividend increases. Analyst coverage overwhelmingly favors the stock with predominantly "Strong Buy" and "Buy" recommendations, while investor enthusiasm remains high despite some concerns about insider and large shareholder selling. The market appears confident about Walmart's growth prospects, particularly in e-commerce and advertising revenue streams.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Walmart presents a robust financial profile characterized by strong market dominance, significant growth in e-commerce and advertising revenues, and disciplined debt management. However, liquidity ratios indicate tight short-term asset coverage, and valuation remains elevated, posing moderate investment risk amid competitive pressures and tariff-related cost inflation. Overall, Walmart maintains a solid solvency position with manageable leverage but faces measured macroeconomic and operational risks.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.25 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.79(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.24(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.67(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.24(Low)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about WMT
AI Answers: Common Questions About WMT
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Walmart Inc.
Walmart is a good buy for long-term investors, given its strong fundamentals, consistent revenue and EPS growth, and robust market position. However, the stock trades at a premium P/E of 46.85 and is near its 52-week high ($134.69), so short-term traders should consider waiting for a pullback to the $120-$122 support zone for a better entry.
There is no strong reason to sell now unless you are concerned about valuation risk or need liquidity; technicals remain bullish, and fundamentals are intact. However, if Walmart fails to break above resistance or if growth disappoints, a reassessment may be warranted.
The biggest risks are elevated valuation (P/E 46.85, EV/EBITDA well above sector), tight liquidity (current ratio 0.79, quick ratio 0.24), and competitive/macro pressures such as inflation and tariffs. These could impact margins or trigger a valuation correction if growth slows.
Analyst consensus price target is $130.84, with technical resistance at $134.69 (52-week high); a breakout could target $140-$145. Downside support is near $120.59 (50 SMA), which should be watched for trend reversals.
The stock is considered overvalued by traditional metrics, with a P/E of 46.85 and high EV/EBITDA and P/S ratios relative to peers and its own history. This reflects high growth expectations and leaves little room for earnings disappointment.
Walmart's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 4.7% YoY, EPS 13.3%, gross margin is stable at ~25%, and ROE is a healthy 17%. The business is diversified, cash-generative, and benefits from scale and operational discipline.
Technical analysis is bullish: price is above all key moving averages, a golden cross is in place, RSI is neutral (56.29), and the stock is near its 52-week high. A breakout above $134.69 could trigger further upside, while support at $120-$122 is key for trend maintenance.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, further e-commerce and advertising revenue growth, and any breakout above the $134.69 resistance. Macro events like inflation data and tariff policy changes could also impact the stock.
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