WMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Walmart Inc. (WMT)

$126.77-2.36 (-1.83%) today

Open
$128.72
High
$128.93
Low
$126.22
Volume
13.87M
Mkt Cap
$1.01T
52W High
$134.69
AI Verdict
Confidence 88%
WMTWalmart Inc.
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Walmart remains a fundamentally strong, defensive stock with steady growth and robust execution, but its current valuation is stretched and technicals suggest near-term consolidation. While long-term prospects are solid, the risk/reward is less compelling at present levels, making it prudent to hold or accumulate on dips rather than initiate new positions aggressively. Investors should monitor for a breakout or pullback to improve entry points.

By Timeframe
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Short
HOLD
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
41
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Walmart Inc. demonstrates strong financial health, robust earnings growth, and resilience across business cycles, maintaining its position as a global retail leader. The company continues to deliver steady revenue and profit expansion, though current valuation multiples are at a premium relative to its historic average. While near-term returns may be limited, Walmart's scale, operational discipline, and omnichannel investments underpin continued long-term relevance.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$50.0B$100.0B$150.0B$200.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)2%2.5%3%3.5%4%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$190.66B

5.60% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$4.24B

-19.36% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

2.22%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

5.60%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-19.36%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

6.36%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-18.46%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

9.48%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue190.7B179.5B177.4B165.6B180.6B169.6B169.3B161.5B
Revenue Growth YoY+5.60%+5.84%+4.76%+2.54%+4.13%+5.46%+4.77%+6.05%
Net Income4.2B6.1B7.0B4.5B5.3B4.6B4.5B5.1B
Net Income Growth YoY-19.36%+34.21%+56.10%-12.09%-4.37%+910.38%-42.96%+205.08%
EPS$0.53$0.77$0.88$0.56$0.65$0.57$0.56$0.63
EPS Growth YoY-18.46%+35.09%+57.14%-11.11%-4.41%+916.04%-42.86%+200.00%

Profitability Metrics

Gross Margin

24.67%

TTM

Operating Margin

4.57%

TTM

Net Margin

2.22%

TTM

Return on Equity

23.69%

TTM

Return on Assets

8.55%

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Gross Margin24.67%24.95%25.16%24.94%24.58%24.91%25.11%24.81%
Operating Margin4.57%3.73%4.11%4.31%4.35%3.96%4.69%4.24%
Net Margin2.22%3.42%3.96%2.71%2.91%2.70%2.66%3.16%
Return on Equity (ROE)4.25%6.39%7.80%5.35%5.77%5.19%5.33%6.28%
Return on Assets (ROA)1.66%2.36%2.91%1.92%2.26%1.94%1.99%2.26%

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
NEUTRAL

Walmart (WMT) is currently in a strong medium- to long-term uptrend, supported by a golden cross and price trading above key moving averages. Short-term momentum is mixed with some recent pullbacks near critical support zones, but overall technicals suggest potential for bullish continuation if resistance near $127 is broken. Chart patterns indicate a rising channel with emerging bullish flags, though caution remains due to recent bearish reversal patterns around $127-$130.

RSI
Hold
Neutral55

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+15.2% from 200 SMA
ADX
Hold
Weak/No Trend11

Range-bound market

Weak
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$126.77
50 SMA
$125.40
150 SMA
$113.96
200 SMA
$110.02
52W High
$134.69
52W Low
$83.02

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
55Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Walmart Inc. demonstrates strong financial health, robust earnings growth, and resilience across business cycles, maintaining its position as a global retail leader. The company continues to deliver steady revenue and profit expansion, though current valuation multiples are at a premium relative to its historic average. While near-term returns may be limited, Walmart's scale, operational discipline, and omnichannel investments underpin continued long-term relevance.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$0.74

Estimated

$0.73

Surprise

+$0.01

Surprise %

+1.79%

Revenue

Beat

Actual

$190.66B

Estimated

$190.49B

Surprise

+$164.7M

Surprise %

+0.09%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$0.74$0.62$0.68$0.61$0.66$0.58$0.67$0.60
EPS (Estimated)$0.73$0.60$0.73$0.57$0.65$0.53$0.65$0.52
EPS Surprise+$0.01+$0.02-$0.05+$0.04+$0.01+$0.05+$0.02+$0.08
% Diff+1.8%+3.2%-7.2%+6.1%+2.2%+9.4%+3.1%+15.4%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$190.66B$179.5B$177.4B$165.61B$180.55B$169.59B$169.34B$161.51B
Revenue (Estimated)$190.49B$177.44B$175.94B$165.62B$180.07B$167.69B$168.56B$159.57B
Revenue Surprise+$164.7M+$2.05B+$1.47B-$10.79M+$479.65M+$1.9B+$770.48M+$1.94B
% Diff+0.1%+1.2%+0.8%-0.0%+0.3%+1.1%+0.5%+1.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
OVERVALUED

Walmart (WMT) currently trades at elevated valuation multiples relative to its sector and historical averages, reflecting strong investor confidence fueled by steady revenue growth, robust e-commerce expansion, and ongoing profitability enhancements. Despite a challenging macro environment and some recent earnings growth deceleration, the stock benefits from favorable analyst sentiment and solid market positioning as a discount retail leader.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

46.16

TTM

Price to Sales

1.42

TTM

Price to Book

10.14

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

22.96

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

1.50

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings56.0332.8327.8143.4137.5035.9830.6723.41
Price to Sales4.984.494.414.704.373.883.262.96
Price to Book9.538.408.679.308.667.486.545.88
Enterprise Value to EBITDA96.5569.3161.6883.7075.9271.2159.8549.00
Enterprise Value to Revenue5.284.824.725.054.654.193.573.30

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

Walmart's market sentiment remains broadly positive, supported by strong analyst buy ratings and investor confidence in the company's strategic growth initiatives in AI, advertising, and e-commerce. However, some mixed social media sentiment and concerns about the stock's premium valuation inject caution among retail investors, reflecting a nuanced sentiment landscape.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Apr 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
4.1 / 5.0
Based on 43 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
0
Sell
1
Hold
3
Buy
30
Strong Buy
9

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Walmart exhibits a stable yet moderately leveraged financial position, supported by a dominant market presence and diversified revenue streams. While liquidity ratios indicate limited short-term buffer, the company's robust interest coverage and scale mitigate solvency concerns. Investor sentiment remains positive with bullish outlooks, though risks from rising labor costs, geopolitical uncertainties, and valuation premium temper the risk profile.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

0.79

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

0.24

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.67

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.24

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio0.790.800.790.780.820.850.800.80
Quick Ratio0.240.240.230.220.240.230.220.23
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.670.710.720.800.660.700.730.79
Debt-to-Assets0.240.240.240.260.230.230.240.25

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 0.79(Weak)

Quick Ratio: 0.24(Weak)

The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.67(Moderate)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.24(Low)

The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.

Frequently Asked Questions about WMT

AI Answers: Common Questions About WMT

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Walmart Inc.

Walmart is not an ideal buy at current levels due to its elevated P/E ratio of 46.61 (well above sector and historical averages) and price near the upper end of its 52-week range ($126.77 vs. $134.69 high). While fundamentals are strong, waiting for a pullback toward $120–$124 or a confirmed breakout above $126 with volume would offer a better risk/reward entry.

There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own Walmart, as fundamentals remain robust and technicals do not signal a breakdown. However, with valuation stretched and upside limited, trimming overweight positions or using trailing stops is reasonable if you are risk-averse or need to rebalance.

The biggest risks are valuation compression if growth disappoints (P/E ~47), margin pressure from rising labor and input costs, and potential liquidity stress (current ratio <1, quick ratio very low) if inventory turnover slows. Geopolitical and regulatory risks also loom, especially in international and digital segments.

Technical resistance is at $126, $130, and $134.69 (52-week high), with analyst price targets clustered at $137–$147. Downside support is at $124.15 and $120. A breakout above $126 could target $130–$135, while failure to hold support could see a retest of $120.

Walmart is overvalued relative to both its sector and its own history, with a P/E ratio of 46.61, EV/EBITDA and P/B well above 5-year averages, and a price-to-sales ratio reflecting rich revenue multiples. The market is pricing in continued strong growth, so any disappointment could lead to multiple compression.

Fundamentally, Walmart is very strong: revenue grew 4.7% YoY to $713B, net income rose 12.6%, and margins are stable (gross ~25%, operating ~4.2%). Free cash flow is robust, ROE is up to 22.1%, and the business is diversified and resilient.

Technically, WMT is in a long-term uptrend with a golden cross and price above major moving averages, but short-term momentum is neutral (RSI ~54.5, weak ADX), and the stock is consolidating below resistance at $126–$130. Volume is light, suggesting a wait-and-see approach until a breakout or pullback.

Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (which have recently beaten estimates), further growth in e-commerce and advertising, and any major strategic announcements (e.g., AI, automation, or international expansion). Macroeconomic data and regulatory developments could also impact sentiment and valuation.

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