WMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Walmart remains a fundamentally strong, defensive stock with steady growth and robust execution, but its current valuation is stretched and technicals suggest near-term consolidation. While long-term prospects are solid, the risk/reward is less compelling at present levels, making it prudent to hold or accumulate on dips rather than initiate new positions aggressively. Investors should monitor for a breakout or pullback to improve entry points.
Fundamentals
Walmart Inc. demonstrates strong financial health, robust earnings growth, and resilience across business cycles, maintaining its position as a global retail leader. The company continues to deliver steady revenue and profit expansion, though current valuation multiples are at a premium relative to its historic average. While near-term returns may be limited, Walmart's scale, operational discipline, and omnichannel investments underpin continued long-term relevance.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
5.60% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-19.36% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 190.7B | 179.5B | 177.4B | 165.6B | 180.6B | 169.6B | 169.3B | 161.5B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +5.60% | +5.84% | +4.76% | +2.54% | +4.13% | +5.46% | +4.77% | +6.05% |
| Net Income | 4.2B | 6.1B | 7.0B | 4.5B | 5.3B | 4.6B | 4.5B | 5.1B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -19.36% | +34.21% | +56.10% | -12.09% | -4.37% | +910.38% | -42.96% | +205.08% |
| EPS | $0.53 | $0.77 | $0.88 | $0.56 | $0.65 | $0.57 | $0.56 | $0.63 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -18.46% | +35.09% | +57.14% | -11.11% | -4.41% | +916.04% | -42.86% | +200.00% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 24.67% | 24.95% | 25.16% | 24.94% | 24.58% | 24.91% | 25.11% | 24.81% |
| Operating Margin | 4.57% | 3.73% | 4.11% | 4.31% | 4.35% | 3.96% | 4.69% | 4.24% |
| Net Margin | 2.22% | 3.42% | 3.96% | 2.71% | 2.91% | 2.70% | 2.66% | 3.16% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 4.25% | 6.39% | 7.80% | 5.35% | 5.77% | 5.19% | 5.33% | 6.28% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 1.66% | 2.36% | 2.91% | 1.92% | 2.26% | 1.94% | 1.99% | 2.26% |
Technical Analysis
Walmart (WMT) is currently in a strong medium- to long-term uptrend, supported by a golden cross and price trading above key moving averages. Short-term momentum is mixed with some recent pullbacks near critical support zones, but overall technicals suggest potential for bullish continuation if resistance near $127 is broken. Chart patterns indicate a rising channel with emerging bullish flags, though caution remains due to recent bearish reversal patterns around $127-$130.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Range-bound market
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Walmart Inc. demonstrates strong financial health, robust earnings growth, and resilience across business cycles, maintaining its position as a global retail leader. The company continues to deliver steady revenue and profit expansion, though current valuation multiples are at a premium relative to its historic average. While near-term returns may be limited, Walmart's scale, operational discipline, and omnichannel investments underpin continued long-term relevance.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.74
Estimated
$0.73
Surprise
+$0.01
Surprise %
+1.79%
Revenue
Actual
$190.66B
Estimated
$190.49B
Surprise
+$164.7M
Surprise %
+0.09%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.74 | $0.62 | $0.68 | $0.61 | $0.66 | $0.58 | $0.67 | $0.60 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.73 | $0.60 | $0.73 | $0.57 | $0.65 | $0.53 | $0.65 | $0.52 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.01 | +$0.02 | -$0.05 | +$0.04 | +$0.01 | +$0.05 | +$0.02 | +$0.08 |
| % Diff | +1.8% | +3.2% | -7.2% | +6.1% | +2.2% | +9.4% | +3.1% | +15.4% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $190.66B | $179.5B | $177.4B | $165.61B | $180.55B | $169.59B | $169.34B | $161.51B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $190.49B | $177.44B | $175.94B | $165.62B | $180.07B | $167.69B | $168.56B | $159.57B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$164.7M | +$2.05B | +$1.47B | -$10.79M | +$479.65M | +$1.9B | +$770.48M | +$1.94B |
| % Diff | +0.1% | +1.2% | +0.8% | -0.0% | +0.3% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +1.2% |
Valuation
Walmart (WMT) currently trades at elevated valuation multiples relative to its sector and historical averages, reflecting strong investor confidence fueled by steady revenue growth, robust e-commerce expansion, and ongoing profitability enhancements. Despite a challenging macro environment and some recent earnings growth deceleration, the stock benefits from favorable analyst sentiment and solid market positioning as a discount retail leader.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 56.03 | 32.83 | 27.81 | 43.41 | 37.50 | 35.98 | 30.67 | 23.41 |
| Price to Sales | 4.98 | 4.49 | 4.41 | 4.70 | 4.37 | 3.88 | 3.26 | 2.96 |
| Price to Book | 9.53 | 8.40 | 8.67 | 9.30 | 8.66 | 7.48 | 6.54 | 5.88 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 96.55 | 69.31 | 61.68 | 83.70 | 75.92 | 71.21 | 59.85 | 49.00 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 5.28 | 4.82 | 4.72 | 5.05 | 4.65 | 4.19 | 3.57 | 3.30 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Walmart's market sentiment remains broadly positive, supported by strong analyst buy ratings and investor confidence in the company's strategic growth initiatives in AI, advertising, and e-commerce. However, some mixed social media sentiment and concerns about the stock's premium valuation inject caution among retail investors, reflecting a nuanced sentiment landscape.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Walmart exhibits a stable yet moderately leveraged financial position, supported by a dominant market presence and diversified revenue streams. While liquidity ratios indicate limited short-term buffer, the company's robust interest coverage and scale mitigate solvency concerns. Investor sentiment remains positive with bullish outlooks, though risks from rising labor costs, geopolitical uncertainties, and valuation premium temper the risk profile.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.25 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.79(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.24(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.67(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.24(Low)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about WMT
AI Answers: Common Questions About WMT
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Walmart Inc.
Walmart is not an ideal buy at current levels due to its elevated P/E ratio of 46.61 (well above sector and historical averages) and price near the upper end of its 52-week range ($126.77 vs. $134.69 high). While fundamentals are strong, waiting for a pullback toward $120–$124 or a confirmed breakout above $126 with volume would offer a better risk/reward entry.
There is no urgent reason to sell if you already own Walmart, as fundamentals remain robust and technicals do not signal a breakdown. However, with valuation stretched and upside limited, trimming overweight positions or using trailing stops is reasonable if you are risk-averse or need to rebalance.
The biggest risks are valuation compression if growth disappoints (P/E ~47), margin pressure from rising labor and input costs, and potential liquidity stress (current ratio <1, quick ratio very low) if inventory turnover slows. Geopolitical and regulatory risks also loom, especially in international and digital segments.
Technical resistance is at $126, $130, and $134.69 (52-week high), with analyst price targets clustered at $137–$147. Downside support is at $124.15 and $120. A breakout above $126 could target $130–$135, while failure to hold support could see a retest of $120.
Walmart is overvalued relative to both its sector and its own history, with a P/E ratio of 46.61, EV/EBITDA and P/B well above 5-year averages, and a price-to-sales ratio reflecting rich revenue multiples. The market is pricing in continued strong growth, so any disappointment could lead to multiple compression.
Fundamentally, Walmart is very strong: revenue grew 4.7% YoY to $713B, net income rose 12.6%, and margins are stable (gross ~25%, operating ~4.2%). Free cash flow is robust, ROE is up to 22.1%, and the business is diversified and resilient.
Technically, WMT is in a long-term uptrend with a golden cross and price above major moving averages, but short-term momentum is neutral (RSI ~54.5, weak ADX), and the stock is consolidating below resistance at $126–$130. Volume is light, suggesting a wait-and-see approach until a breakout or pullback.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings (which have recently beaten estimates), further growth in e-commerce and advertising, and any major strategic announcements (e.g., AI, automation, or international expansion). Macroeconomic data and regulatory developments could also impact sentiment and valuation.
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