WMT AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?
Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Walmart is a fundamentally robust, market-leading retailer with resilient cash flows, steady growth, and strong technical momentum, but its premium valuation and moderate near-term risks temper immediate upside. While the long-term outlook remains positive due to e-commerce expansion and operational excellence, current price levels reflect much of this optimism. Investors should consider holding or accumulating on weakness, as the risk/reward is balanced at present levels.
Fundamentals
Walmart continues to demonstrate robust financial health, underpinned by steady revenue growth, resilient profitability, and reliable earnings performance. The company’s scale and operational efficiency support its dominant position in the retail sector, and its consistent ability to slightly exceed earnings estimates reflects strong management execution. While the valuation appears stretched based on its high P/E ratio, the business remains defensive and cash-generative, providing stability during various economic cycles.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue
- Net Income
- Net Margin (%)
Revenue
5.60% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Income
-19.36% YoY
Q4 2025
Net Margin
Q4 2025
Growth Metrics
Revenue Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Net Income Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Revenue Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
EPS Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Book Value Per Share Growth YoY
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 190.7B | 179.5B | 177.4B | 165.6B | 180.6B | 169.6B | 169.3B | 161.5B |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +5.60% | +5.84% | +4.76% | +2.54% | +4.13% | +5.46% | +4.77% | +6.05% |
| Net Income | 4.2B | 6.1B | 7.0B | 4.5B | 5.3B | 4.6B | 4.5B | 5.1B |
| Net Income Growth YoY | -19.36% | +34.21% | +56.10% | -12.09% | -4.37% | +910.38% | -42.96% | +205.08% |
| EPS | $0.53 | $0.77 | $0.88 | $0.56 | $0.65 | $0.57 | $0.56 | $0.63 |
| EPS Growth YoY | -18.46% | +35.09% | +57.14% | -11.11% | -4.41% | +916.04% | -42.86% | +200.00% |
Profitability Metrics
Gross Margin
TTM
Operating Margin
TTM
Net Margin
TTM
Return on Equity
TTM
Return on Assets
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 24.67% | 24.95% | 25.16% | 24.94% | 24.58% | 24.91% | 25.11% | 24.81% |
| Operating Margin | 4.57% | 3.73% | 4.11% | 4.31% | 4.35% | 3.96% | 4.69% | 4.24% |
| Net Margin | 2.22% | 3.42% | 3.96% | 2.71% | 2.91% | 2.70% | 2.66% | 3.16% |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 4.25% | 6.39% | 7.80% | 5.35% | 5.77% | 5.19% | 5.33% | 6.28% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 1.66% | 2.36% | 2.91% | 1.92% | 2.26% | 1.94% | 1.99% | 2.26% |
Technical Analysis
WMT is currently in a strong uptrend supported by a golden cross, with price above key moving averages and positioned near its 52-week high. Momentum is neutral but stable, indicating no extreme overbought conditions. The stock shows technical strength in an advancing phase ideal for accumulation.
No extreme reading
Price in uptrend
Range-bound market
50 above 200 - bullish
Key Technical Values
Price with Moving Averages
50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages
Relative Strength Index
Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes
RSI (14)
Earnings
Walmart continues to demonstrate robust financial health, underpinned by steady revenue growth, resilient profitability, and reliable earnings performance. The company’s scale and operational efficiency support its dominant position in the retail sector, and its consistent ability to slightly exceed earnings estimates reflects strong management execution. While the valuation appears stretched based on its high P/E ratio, the business remains defensive and cash-generative, providing stability during various economic cycles.
Latest Earnings
Q4 2025 Earnings (Jan 31, 2026)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Actual
$0.74
Estimated
$0.73
Surprise
+$0.01
Surprise %
+1.79%
Revenue
Actual
$190.66B
Estimated
$190.49B
Surprise
+$164.7M
Surprise %
+0.09%
Historical Earnings
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| EPS (Actual) | $0.74 | $0.62 | $0.68 | $0.61 | $0.66 | $0.58 | $0.67 | $0.60 |
| EPS (Estimated) | $0.73 | $0.60 | $0.73 | $0.57 | $0.65 | $0.53 | $0.65 | $0.52 |
| EPS Surprise | +$0.01 | +$0.02 | -$0.05 | +$0.04 | +$0.01 | +$0.05 | +$0.02 | +$0.08 |
| % Diff | +1.8% | +3.2% | -7.2% | +6.1% | +2.2% | +9.4% | +3.1% | +15.4% |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Revenue (Actual) | $190.66B | $179.5B | $177.4B | $165.61B | $180.55B | $169.59B | $169.34B | $161.51B |
| Revenue (Estimated) | $190.49B | $177.44B | $175.94B | $165.62B | $180.07B | $167.69B | $168.56B | $159.57B |
| Revenue Surprise | +$164.7M | +$2.05B | +$1.47B | -$10.79M | +$479.65M | +$1.9B | +$770.48M | +$1.94B |
| % Diff | +0.1% | +1.2% | +0.8% | -0.0% | +0.3% | +1.1% | +0.5% | +1.2% |
Valuation
Walmart currently trades at premium valuation multiples reflecting strong market leadership and strategic growth in higher-margin areas such as e-commerce and advertising. Despite modest revenue growth and some recent earnings softness, analysts largely maintain a positive outlook with a consensus Buy rating and price targets suggesting moderate upside potential.
Valuation Metrics
Price to Earnings
TTM
Price to Sales
TTM
Price to Book
TTM
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
TTM
Enterprise Value to Revenue
TTM
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Earnings | 56.03 | 32.83 | 27.81 | 43.41 | 37.50 | 35.98 | 30.67 | 23.41 |
| Price to Sales | 4.98 | 4.49 | 4.41 | 4.70 | 4.37 | 3.88 | 3.26 | 2.96 |
| Price to Book | 9.53 | 8.40 | 8.67 | 9.30 | 8.66 | 7.48 | 6.54 | 5.88 |
| Enterprise Value to EBITDA | 96.55 | 69.31 | 61.68 | 83.70 | 75.92 | 71.21 | 59.85 | 49.00 |
| Enterprise Value to Revenue | 5.28 | 4.82 | 4.72 | 5.05 | 4.65 | 4.19 | 3.57 | 3.30 |
Sentiment & Analyst Ratings
Walmart's market sentiment is predominantly positive, supported by strong analyst buy ratings and growing confidence in its digital growth and omnichannel strategy. News flow highlights steady financial performance, margin expansion, and AI integration as key growth drivers, while social media buzz reflects cautious optimism amid valuation concerns. Overall, the sentiment landscape points to confidence in Walmart's resilient business model with some caution on valuation levels.
Analyst Recommendations
Risk Assessment
Walmart presents a moderate financial risk profile characterized by strong operational scale but notable short-term liquidity constraints and moderate leverage. The business faces key execution risks in cost management and e-commerce competition amid an increasingly complex regulatory environment, balanced against its market leadership and robust cash flow generation. From an investor perspective, Walmart offers a stable long-term outlook but with moderate near-term pressures from margin and operational challenges.
Liquidity & Solvency
Current Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Quick Ratio
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Equity
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
Debt-to-Assets
Latest Quarter: Q4 2025
| Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q1 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Metrics | ||||||||
| Current Ratio | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.79 | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Solvency Metrics | ||||||||
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Debt-to-Assets | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.25 |
Liquidity Assessment
Current Ratio: 0.79(Weak)
Quick Ratio: 0.24(Weak)
The company has relatively weak liquidity and may face challenges meeting short-term obligations.
Solvency Assessment
Debt-to-Equity: 0.67(Moderate)
Debt-to-Assets: 0.24(Low)
The company maintains a balanced capital structure with manageable debt levels.
Frequently Asked Questions about WMT
AI Answers: Common Questions About WMT
Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Walmart Inc.
Walmart is not a bargain at current levels, trading at a P/E of 47.78 and near its 52-week high ($134.69), but its strong fundamentals and bullish technicals support short-term upside. For long-term investors, consider accumulating on pullbacks below the 50 SMA ($126.24) for better risk/reward.
There is no urgent reason to sell unless you are highly sensitive to valuation risk or expect near-term macro headwinds; fundamentals remain strong and technicals are bullish, but upside is limited at current prices. Consider trimming if overweight or if price exceeds $134.69 without further earnings growth.
Biggest risks include a high valuation (P/E 47.78, EV/EBITDA well above historical averages), margin compression from cost inflation, and moderate liquidity (current ratio below 1). Regulatory and competitive pressures, especially in e-commerce, also pose ongoing risks.
Technical resistance is at $134.69, with potential extension to $138–$140 if a breakout occurs. Analyst targets (e.g., TD Cowen at $150) suggest moderate upside, but downside support is at $126 (50 SMA) and $113 (200 SMA).
Walmart is fairly valued but at a premium, with P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples well above sector and historical norms, reflecting high investor expectations for digital and margin growth. The current price relies on continued execution and growth in higher-margin segments.
Walmart's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 4.7% YoY to $713.16B, net income rose 12.6% to $21.89B, and margins are stable (gross ~24.9%, net ~3.1%). Cash flow is robust and balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt/equity ~0.67).
Technicals are bullish: price is above key moving averages, a golden cross is active, RSI is neutral at 56.8, and the stock is near its 52-week high. A breakout above $134.69 could trigger further upside, while downside is supported at $126 and $113.
Key catalysts include upcoming earnings reports, continued e-commerce and AI-driven growth, analyst price target upgrades, and dividend increases. Watch for a breakout above $134.69 and further margin expansion from digital and advertising segments.
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