XOM AI Stock Analysis – Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

$150.74+0.92 (+0.61%) today

Open
$151.00
High
$152.33
Low
$149.47
Volume
18.65M
Mkt Cap
$628.10B
52W High
$159.61
AI Verdict
Confidence 87%
XOMExxon Mobil Corporation
AlphaCrew AI
HOLD
Overall
Summary

Exxon Mobil (XOM) presents a stable, income-oriented investment with robust fundamentals and technical momentum, but its valuation is near cycle highs and growth is moderating. Near-term technicals are bullish, but medium- and long-term upside is limited by sector headwinds, commodity price volatility, and a full valuation. Investors should expect stability and reliable dividends rather than outsized capital gains at current levels.

By Timeframe
Hover for details
BUY
Short
HOLD
Medium
HOLD
Long
Agent Signals
14
Fund
Tech
Val
Sent
Risk

Fundamentals

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Exxon Mobil (XOM) demonstrates stable financial health, with robust profitability and consistent earnings performance, though growth is moderating due to industry cyclicality and volatile energy prices. The company's solid balance sheet, shareholder returns, and global scale cement its resilience even as operational margins face some compression. Current valuation is at the high end of historical P/E ranges, suggesting returns may lag unless oil prices strengthen further or new business initiatives outperform.

Financial Highlights

Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025$0$25.0B$50.0B$75.0B$100.0BRevenue & Net Income ($)8%8.4%8.8%9.2%9.6%Net Margin (%)
  • Revenue
  • Net Income
  • Net Margin (%)

Revenue

$80.04B

-1.26% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Income

$6.50B

-14.57% YoY

Q4 2025

Net Margin

8.12%

Q4 2025

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth YoY

-1.26%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Net Income Growth YoY

-14.57%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Revenue Per Share Growth YoY

1.73%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

EPS Growth YoY

-12.79%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Book Value Per Share Growth YoY

1.51%

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Revenue80.0B83.3B79.5B81.1B81.1B87.8B90.0B80.4B
Revenue Growth YoY-1.26%-5.08%-11.68%+0.80%-0.77%-0.88%+11.38%-3.87%
Net Income6.5B7.5B7.1B7.7B7.6B8.6B9.2B8.2B
Net Income Growth YoY-14.57%-12.33%-23.35%-6.17%-0.26%-5.07%+17.26%-28.08%
EPS$1.50$1.76$1.64$1.76$1.72$1.93$2.14$2.06
EPS Growth YoY-12.79%-8.81%-23.36%-14.56%-9.95%-14.22%+10.31%-26.16%

Profitability Metrics

Technical Analysis

Candela
Candela
Technical Analysis
BULLISH

XOM is currently in a strong uptrend, trading above key moving averages with a bullish golden cross confirmed. Momentum indicators and trend strength support continued advancing price action close to a recent 52-week high, signaling potential upside within a solid bullish phase.

RSI
Hold
Neutral58

No extreme reading

03070100
Trend
Buy
Strong Uptrend

Price in uptrend

+27.4% from 200 SMA
ADX
Buy
Strong Trend39

Strong trend active

Strong
MA Cross
Buy
Above 50/200

50 above 200 - bullish

50
200

Key Technical Values

Price
$150.76
50 SMA
$137.40
150 SMA
$121.50
200 SMA
$118.35
52W High
$159.60
52W Low
$97.80

Price with Moving Averages

50-day, 150-day and 200-day simple moving averages

Price
50 SMA
150 SMA
200 SMA

Relative Strength Index

Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price changes

RSI (14)

≤30 Oversold
≥70 Overbought
58Neutral

Earnings

Essentia
Essentia
Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL

Exxon Mobil (XOM) demonstrates stable financial health, with robust profitability and consistent earnings performance, though growth is moderating due to industry cyclicality and volatile energy prices. The company's solid balance sheet, shareholder returns, and global scale cement its resilience even as operational margins face some compression. Current valuation is at the high end of historical P/E ranges, suggesting returns may lag unless oil prices strengthen further or new business initiatives outperform.

Latest Earnings

Q4 2025 Earnings (Dec 31, 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Beat

Actual

$1.71

Estimated

$1.70

Surprise

+$0.01

Surprise %

+0.59%

Revenue

Miss

Actual

$80.04B

Estimated

$80.63B

Surprise

-$592.96M

Surprise %

-0.74%

Historical Earnings

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Earnings Per Share
EPS (Actual)$1.71$1.88$1.64$1.76$1.67$1.92$2.14$2.06
EPS (Estimated)$1.70$1.82$1.57$1.75$1.77$1.88$2.01$2.20
EPS Surprise+$0.01+$0.06+$0.07+$0.01-$0.10+$0.04+$0.13-$0.14
% Diff+0.6%+3.3%+4.5%+0.6%-5.6%+2.1%+6.5%-6.4%
Revenue
Revenue (Actual)$80.04B$83.33B$79.48B$81.06B$81.06B$87.79B$89.99B$80.41B
Revenue (Estimated)$80.63B$86.47B$80.7B$86.35B$86.33B$89.97B$93.45B$82.23B
Revenue Surprise-$592.96M-$3.13B-$1.22B-$5.29B-$5.28B-$2.17B-$3.46B-$1.82B
% Diff-0.7%-3.6%-1.5%-6.1%-6.1%-2.4%-3.7%-2.2%

Valuation

Valorem
Valorem
Valuation Analysis
FAIRLY VALUED

Exxon Mobil's valuation reflects a balance of strong financial fundamentals and sector-specific challenges, with an earnings multiple moderately above its industry average. Analyst sentiment is cautiously optimistic, projecting modest upside potential supported by steady cash flow and investments in low-carbon technologies. The stock is currently trading near its 52-week high, indicating some premium pricing amidst macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings

22.63

TTM

Price to Sales

1.94

TTM

Price to Book

2.52

TTM

Enterprise Value to EBITDA

10.13

TTM

Enterprise Value to Revenue

2.12

TTM

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Price to Earnings20.0416.1716.4817.2015.7715.1913.4314.23
Price to Sales6.515.865.876.555.925.965.525.82
Price to Book2.011.871.782.021.821.951.852.28
Enterprise Value to EBITDA36.7829.3329.0031.4829.8727.6426.0127.29
Enterprise Value to Revenue7.266.206.186.806.156.145.705.91

Sentiment & Analyst Ratings

Pulse
Pulse
Sentiment Analysis
MIXED

ExxonMobil (XOM) currently exhibits a mixed to cautiously optimistic sentiment profile driven by geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher, which supports short-term stock gains despite neutral-to-hold analyst consensus. While production and operational metrics are strong, investor sentiment remains tempered by macroeconomic concerns and varied analyst price targets, resulting in a nuanced market psychology landscape.

Analyst Recommendations

As of Mar 1, 2026
Strong SellSellHoldBuyStrong Buy
Buy
3.6 / 5.0
Based on 25 analyst ratings
Strong Sell
1
Sell
1
Hold
10
Buy
8
Strong Buy
5

Risk Assessment

Sentinel
Sentinel
Risk Assessment
MODERATE

Exxon Mobil (XOM) exhibits moderate financial strength with stable liquidity and relatively low leverage, though liquidity metrics are slightly below ideal thresholds, indicating some short-term operational constraints. The company faces significant sector-specific risks including volatile commodity prices, geopolitical tensions impacting supply, and regulatory challenges tied to the energy transition. Despite these risks, Exxon maintains a resilient balance sheet and a market position that generally compares favorably to peers within the integrated oil & gas sector.

Liquidity & Solvency

Current Ratio

1.15

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Quick Ratio

1.15

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Equity

0.27

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

Debt-to-Assets

0.16

Latest Quarter: Q4 2025

 Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2024
Liquidity Metrics
Current Ratio1.151.141.251.241.311.351.361.38
Quick Ratio1.150.790.880.900.971.011.011.06
Solvency Metrics
Debt-to-Equity0.270.160.150.140.160.160.160.20
Debt-to-Assets0.160.090.090.080.090.090.090.11

Liquidity Assessment

Current Ratio: 1.15(Adequate)

Quick Ratio: 1.15(Strong)

The company has adequate liquidity but may face challenges in a downturn.

Solvency Assessment

Debt-to-Equity: 0.27(Low)

Debt-to-Assets: 0.16(Low)

The company has conservative debt levels, indicating low financial risk and strong long-term solvency.

Frequently Asked Questions about XOM

AI Answers: Common Questions About XOM

Get AI-powered answers to the questions investors ask most about Exxon Mobil Corporation

At $151.83 and a P/E of 22.7 (above sector average), XOM is fairly valued with strong technical momentum but limited upside unless oil prices surge or new catalysts emerge. The stock is trading near its 52-week high ($159.61), so entry here is best for short-term traders or income-focused investors, not for those seeking deep value.

Unless your thesis has changed or you expect a major downturn in oil prices, there is no strong reason to sell now. Fundamentals remain solid, technicals are bullish, and dividends are secure, but if you seek high growth or are concerned about valuation, trimming may be prudent.

Biggest risks include commodity price volatility, with liquidity ratios (current/quick at ~1.15) indicating only a modest cushion for short-term shocks. Regulatory and climate litigation, as well as energy transition pressures, could compress earnings and multiples. Downside risk is also present if oil prices fall or macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.

Technical resistance is at $159.60 (52-week high), with a bullish extension to $165 if momentum continues. Analyst targets range widely from $118 (bearish) to $183 (bullish), reflecting sector uncertainty. Support is at $136 and $118.

XOM is fairly valued: its P/E (22.7) and EV/EBITDA are above sector averages, reflecting premium for stability and cash flow. The price-to-sales ratio is also high, and valuation multiples are at the upper end of the 5-year range, so the stock is not a bargain but not excessively overvalued given its strengths.

Fundamentally, XOM is strong with net margin at 8.9%, ROE and ROA above sector averages, and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio (~0.27). However, revenue and EPS have declined YoY (EPS down 14.5%), and margins have compressed, reflecting sector normalization.

Technical analysis is bullish: price is above all major moving averages, a golden cross is active, RSI is neutral (60.78), and momentum is strong. Near-term upside targets are $159.60–$165, with robust support at $136 and $118.

Key catalysts include geopolitical events (especially in the Middle East) that could drive oil prices higher, upcoming earnings reports, and progress on major upstream projects or low-carbon initiatives. Watch for macroeconomic shifts and regulatory developments that could impact sector sentiment.

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